Transcripts For CNBC Closing Bell 20140109 : vimarsana.com

CNBC Closing Bell January 9, 2014

Lee, new jersey, where it all went wrong for new Jersey Governor Chris Christie. We have a live report from ft. Lee where that towns mayor is not very happy that the new jersey governor is making that those of you in iowa, why do you care . This is a man who is considered the front runner for the Republican National nomination for president in 2016. Is it all blowing up on him now . Were going to talk about that coming up. Ben white will join us. I want to hear what he has to say. And a scandal in the courtroom world. Alcoa hit with fines for corrupt payments totaling more than 100 million to a middle eastern country. Alcoa ceo cKlaus Kleinfeld will be here to join us. Also a ford executive knows when ford drivers are breaking the law because they track their owners with a gps. They know where theyre going, when theyre going and how fast theyre going. Ford says it does not share that data, but wouldnt Car Insurance Companies Like to know Something Like that . And wouldnt they pay dearly for that kind of information . So what other companies are tracking you . Do you know that . We have a special report on that very, very important story. And thats such an important question. Of course, the Insurance Companies have an interest, but how many people today who own a car realize that information is being tracked, that they know a lot about what youre up to. An important issue. Speaking of markets, the dow is up about 20 points at this hour. 12 points lower on the nasdaq. The s p 500 is off by about a point. Small declines across all three indexes. Here we go. Lets talk about todays Market Action in our Closing Bell Exchange today, Katy Stockton is back from btig. Its hank smith. Ben pace from deutsch bank Wealth Management. Jim lowell from Adviser Investments and our own rick santelli. Rick, youre a hired hand like kelly and i. The rest of you, youre bullish. Everybody is bullish on the panel today. Ka katy, does that worry you here . Sentiment is the Biggest Issue confronting the market from a technical standpoint. If you look at the Retail Investor sentiment polls, they show that investors are too bullish or overly bullish. I would say that their money probably isnt where their mouth is yet. The market still obviously exhibits positive momentum. Thats okay when momentum is as strong as it is. Katy, we should remember as well a lot of people would prefer to see this market pull back and continue higher, almost unchecked. Your colleague pointing out in the minutes from the federal reserves meeting yesterday, they talk about how theyre concerned about these markets, if they appear to be overheated. Perhaps in that weird way, this is good news. Well, the market does look like its in store for more of a pull back in my work. We did see an extreme shortterm overbought reading the last week of last year. I think thats already being worked off through this consolidaco consolidation phase. Thats really healthy from a longer term perspective. I dont expect the loss of shortterm momentum to be impactful over the intermediate term. Hank smith, youve been considering this a secular bull market, longterm trend here. You only think were in the middle innings of this game, right . Oh, absolutely. I think katy had it spot on. Forget about what people are saying to surveys and look at what theyre doing with their money, and the fact is this market is still underowned by institutions and underowned by individuals. And guess what . Fundamentals are starting to improve. The economy is starting to reaccelerate a little bit. Youre going to see corporate profits accelerate from this kind of midsingle digit level weve had in the last few quarters going into 2014. Valuations are reasonable. Theres no reason not to be bullish right now. You know, jim lowell, you say for the doomsayers, their tank of credibility is running on empty here. What do you mean by that . Well, we certainly have seen years and years of people forecasting not just the demise of the u. S. Economy and market but the u. S. Itself. The reality is that every year since the great recession, weve seen measurable improvement, both on lines of economic improvement but also clearly in terms of what weve been able to draw from the market in terms of absolute gains. Going ahead, i may be a little bit less optimistic about seeing accelerated Earnings Growth, but i think theres plenty of room for equities here, especially largecap multinational equities to continue to gain ground. I also in particular think were seeing a tentative turn around inside the eurozone. Thats an area were certainly focusing. You know, ben pace, weve had five good years going back to march of 09 when we hit that major bottom. Last year was just a spectacular year, the best weve had in about 18 years. The law of averages would suggest that we are due for a down year at some point. Why not this year . It could be this year. Its just that it the alternatives continue building to not be that good. 0 cash, bond market yields that are going up, which could mean anemic returns. Last year was a price earnings multiple expansion driven market. Markets up 30 when earnings were only up 5 to 6. I think this year youre going to have to see earnings follow through. You think they will . Gdp growth is going to be better in 2014 than it was in 2013. Margins should stay generally the same. Youre going to see continued share buy backs because corporations have to use that cash. I think youre going to see from 5 to 6 Earnings Growth to 8 to 9 Earnings Growth through 2014. If the markets could just match that, even if multiples dont expand, thats still great relative returns compared to cash and bonds. Rick santelli, for those folks that sat out this rally on the way up maybe hate it even now. Do you think they start to look around and say i have to dance while the musics playing . You know, i remember mr. Prince making that comment. I would ask all our guests, is it investor bullishness i need to Pay Attention to or corporate and institutional buy backs which was demonstrated it was huge last year. I think thats going to correlate very high lly with fe activity. If you look at the following chart, whether its the twos to tens, five to tens, you can see it in these twoday charts of all the maturities. The curve is flattening. Its been close to ten basis points on twos to tens. The reason i bring it up, because that movement seems to correlate with weaker stock prices because thats the treasury market in essence not only questioning taper, its questioning zero Interest Rate policy. Very quickly, globally, all you investo investors, on the screen right now, rating agencies may be weighing in on germany, portugal, the efss. I have all those times and what theyre looking at on the screen right now. Something you want to pay close attention to. Yeah, and we should point out the efsf has to do with the eurozone recovery. Jim, to that point, do these events matter . We remember 2011, 2010 when the European Crisis was spilling over here and causing all of these selloffs. Its different today. I mean, the european story, as you mentioned, is one that people believe in, they care about. What happens, though, if we get activity either on the ratings side or if france, you know, continues, for example, to underperform and that calls into question the viability of europes recovery . Well, i certainly expect to see france to continue to underperform, as i would expect any socialist economy to lag a capitalist driven one. But that said, i dont think were going to see anything like an acrosstheboard downgrade. We just saw a very good postbailout bond auction inside of ireland. That bodes well, i think, not just for ireland but likely for other members gaining strength inside of the zone. In fact, if we do see downgrades across the board, i would view that most likely as a buying opportunity, not a sell. Katy, lets bring it back home. Youre the chart watcher. What levels are you watching carefully right now . Whats your scenario for the near term here for this market . The latest break out for the s p 500 targeted about 1935. So thats a pretty impressive up move. That would be with an intermediate term horizon, maybe two to three months out. Very bullish for the first quarter, of course. On the downside, the initial support for the s p 500 is around 1800. Of course, that level holds some psychological significance. My sense is a pull back could take us a bit lower than that. I wouldnt view it as a breakdown. Where we would get certain about a pull back is if it is generating break downes on the individual stock level. Well know that if we start to see 50day moving averaging taking out things like that. So to me, as long as the breadth and momentum are preventing those kinds of breakdowns, i would generally be buying weakness and looking for oversold buy signals. There are indicators that can help you get back into the market. Thanks, gang. Nice to see you. Thanks, guys. Have a good day. So for a, its been an interesting day for the markets. Dominic chu, any stocks helping find direction here today . There are some big names and big stories out there, bill. Were going to begin with Intercept Pharmaceuticals up about 270 today. Thats not a mistake here. This after it said one of its Liver Disease drugs showed positive results in a mid stage trial. The company has a 5 billion market cap. Also, airlines moving higher as Oil Prices Continue to fall. In addition, United Continental said passenger revenue per available seat increased in december. It also expects Fourth Quarter traffic to increase by nearly 3 . Ford gaining ground after increasing its quarter cannily dividend by 25 . On the downside, theres family dollar, the discount retailer, reporting a weaker than expected quarterly profit and pretty much gave a lukewarm outlook for its current quarter. Were going to ends with another big name we talk about all the time. Its twitter. Continues its fall. Began coverage of the stock with an underperformed rating and a 32 price target. This over concerns about spending requirements. The stock is down some 60 this week alone. It is, again, about 20 off the highs that we saw earlier this past couple of months, bill. Its a mirror image of what we saw going into the end of the year. Thanks very much. Those 5 , 7 gaps up. Now were giving them all back. Something of a bell weather suddenly. Dare we call twitter a bell weather of this market. This market is a little lower today. Still kind of a waitandsee feel. Maybe theyre waiting for that jobs number to come out tomorrow morning, which well have live for you at 8 30 a. M. Eastern time. Right now the dow is down 17 points. Yeah, just about 30 hours to go, maybe, until that report. Not that were counting. But as the Housing Market heats up, should you be moving into the stocks of Home Furnishing retailers and appliance makers . Thats next. Also, alcoa shares are down today after paying nearly 400 million for bribing a middle eastern country to get business. But the ceo will be here exclusively to react to that, explain the situation. Plus, alcoa has earnings coming up at the top of the hour just after the bell rings. So stay tuned for the beginning of the earnings parade as it gets underway. Youre watching cnbc, first in business worldwide. I need proof of insurance. Thats my geico Digital Insurance id card gots all my pertinents on it and such. Works for me. Turn to the camera. Ah, actually i think my eyes might ha. Next Digital Insurance id cards. Just a tap away on the geico app. Could save you fifteen percent or more on Car Insurance. Everybody knows that. Well, did you know that when a tree falls in the forest and no ones around, it does make a sound . Ohhh. Ugh. Geico. Little help here. Everything looking good. Velocity 1,200 feet per second. [ man 2 ] your looking great to us, eagle. 2,000 feet. Still looking very good. 1,400 feet. [ male announcer ] funny thing happens when you shoot for the moon. Ahh, thats affirmative. [ male announcer ] you get there. Youre a go for landing, over. [ male announcer ] the all new cadillac cts, the 2014 motor trend car of the year. Welcome back. Will the ongoing recovery in the Housing Market help Home Furnishing and appliance stocks outperform in 2014, or is bed, bath, and beyonds disappointing report a sign these stocks are in for a tough year . Which one is it . Seema mody taking a look. Bed, bath, and beyond has been able to improve with the Housing Market. That wasnt enough. Weaker sales, higher expenses. Analysts dont believe this is a negative read for all Home Furnishing stocks. Analysts seem to favor william sonoma. Its seen consistent growth in earnings over the past three quarters thanks to an uptake in sales. Theyre expected to benefit from favorable housing trends, better merchandise, and competitive planning. Experts say the strengthening Housing Market with a pick up in Consumer Spending could translate into consumers spending more on appliances. In fact, whirlpool in its recent Earnings Report noted the strong Housing Market and a demand for replacement and discretionary purchases. You know, be forewarned. If the economic and housing recoveries take a breather for whatever reason, experts say the sales of home goods and appliance makers could be impacted. Back to you. You would think so, yes. Seema, thanks. See you later. We have about 45 minutes before the closing bell now with the dow making a little bit of a comeback at this hour. Its only down a couple of points. Well take a look at the s p, which has now turned positive. The nasdaq is the lagger today, down almost nine points. Waiting for earnings from alcoa. They also paid that settlement, settling a bribely in bahrain. Will that hurt whats been a hot stock lately . Theyre sitting at 52week highs. Just off that high today. Well look at that coming up. Huge ramp in the Fourth Quarter. Well see what happens there. Speaking of scandals i am embarrassed and humiliated by the conduct of some of the people on my team. New Jersey Governor Chris Christie firing a top aide linked to a political retribution scandal. Did todays marathon News Conference that lasted about two hours save his president ial ambitions for 2016 . Will the big wall street donors keep writing checks . Well look at it coming up. And we want to know what you think about christies apology and that long News Conference. Your thoughts on that issue, well show those coming up later on the closing bell. Stay tuned. Tdd 18003452550 trading inspires your life. 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Attorney in that area is looking into right now. Its a whole political drama. But it does involve a rising star in the republican party, Chris Christie, considered the front runner for the president ial nomination in 2016. Does this end those chances for him, this whole scandal . Something well get into in a while. Were still waiting for the governor to show up in ft. Lee, new jersey, to begin the apol y apology. Im sure well bring those pictures to you when it happens. You bet. So theres this scandal that you heard. More on that in a minute. Another scandal we want to talk about in Corporate America here. Thats right. In fact, a scandal in the corporate world involving alcoa, which also reports earnings t

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