Transcripts For CNBC Closing Bell 20140211 : vimarsana.com

The s p is back above 1800. The s p is about 1. 3 away from its alltime highs. The closing high was 1848. We have another day like today and were back. A lot of people are going to be saying what happens to my correction . Exactly. We have jim grant coming up. Hell be joining us exclusively. Hes a closely watched fed follower. No fan of ben bernanke. What does he think of janet yellen and what she said and the Market Action which he described as completely manipulated by what the fed is doing in the first place. He will be here in just a bit. Always look forward to jim grants comments. In the markets right now it has been off to the races pretty much all day and its one of those days where you havent seen much loss of momentum as the day builds. The dow up at about the high of the day. Were just off the high of the session up 211, or 1. 3 . This would be the fourth consecutive up day for the dow. First time we have seen that this new year. Nasdaq up 1. 1 , 46point gain at 4194 and as we mentioned, the s p is back above 1800. Were up 21 points or 1. 2 right now at 1821. Lets get to our Closing Bell Exchange to talk about this rally day with Abigail Doolittle from peek theories, bruce khan from sustainable inside capital management, steve sachs, rob stein, and kenny pocari. Rob stein yes. Is this pullback over . Whats going on . What did you make of what we were going through the first month and a half and now its off to the races again . Yeah. Well, we had a little minor correction and the economic fundamentals didnt fall off the cliff. Its a different time than it was last year and the years before. Weve entered a period of visible risk and left a period of uncertainty. A pert of uncertainty, when markets sell off, you dont step back in. With visible risk, youre able to comprehend and evaluate the risk you want to take and find a level thats appropriate to investing. The same thing happens on the upside, too, when it gets too rich. You will see a little more trading but people were looking at good opportunities. Is it too rich right now . No, i think theres some more room to go. I think the expected return for equities is higher from here. Steve, what did we learn today . The combination of janet yellen reiterating what we already knew to some extent at 8 30 in the morning seems to have helped throughout the entire session to support equities. I dont think we necessarily learned anything knew. Its a reiteration of what we knew. We might have forgot it in the last six weeks in the mini correction. The fact of the matter is the mark row economic drop back is solid. We have seen data that suggested were softening a bit, but ultimately when you step back and look at the data, theres really nothing wrong with a 3. 2 annualized gdp growth. Its not as good as the 4. 2 original estimate. You have to remember, the tenyear long term Unemployment Rate in this country averages 6. 5 . Theres a reason the fed picked that number to begin with over a year ago. So ultimately we didnt learn anything new today but its a reiteration of the fact that the macroeconomics picture, the fundamentals, are still in place and the pause weve had in place is probably pretty healthy. Kenny, youre skeptical of the rally. I am because it doesnt have it doesnt have the momentum in it. It doesnt have enough of the buying. It feels very much a traders market versus a change in mindset. You dont have that corresponding volume to go with it. But it came after what some could argue was a climactic selloff on monday when we were down over 300 points on the dow. We were really only down at the worst case we were 8 off the high. Still not really considered a correction because we didnt get to that 10 point. Although there were some stocks within the indexes certainly that corrected more than 10 and those are the ones that investors found real value in. For the broader market, the correction wasnt really a correction. It was a trading range, right. So, therefore, im not listen, its great but i think we see the market kind of pull back again. Bruce, where do you see value and opportunity in this market . We think that markets are currently getting increasingly nervous around stranded assets. Those are assets that a lot of the fossil fuel energies are holding that are potentially going to be written down over time as carbon tax is put in place and policies around the world are starting to beef up their clean fuel standards. You really can see this in the Balance Sheets of big oil where theyre starting to deploy more and more capital into research, development, and starting to convert that 2 trillion of cap ex they have been spending into low Carbon Economy solutions. Abigail, youd been skeptical of this market as well. Now weve seen we put together four consecutive up days for the dow. Is this rally for ra he wieal . I think it will prove for noise, a relief rally, a bounce. I think its coverup for what is really going on and that is this years shift toward safety, bonds, gold, and the yen. They have all been rallying right out of the start of the gate this year preceding the brief but violent pull back in stocks and those three Asset Classes still appear poised to be rallied. This tells me smart, early money does not like something somewhere, probably systemic, maybe an em, maybe even in europe at this point, and that similar to what kenny suggested, i think the real correction is to come. I think u. S. Equities are going to follow japan and the emerging markets, and the real tell here, the bonds. The bonds have been telling the truth. Follow the bonds. Thats where stocks are going, and right now the tenyear is still saying stocks will pull back more. Do you agree . I do. What is it about the bond market, that the fed is tapering and yields should be going much higher than they have been. Right. But i think that the bond market is telling you it doesnt believe it. It doesnt believe that the economy is going to be strong enough. Therefore, ultimately whats going to end up happening, is the fed going to stop the tapering, start to initiate it again . I think it comes right back to the lows of where we were last week around the 1735 level. I dont think youre going to get that big, big correction a lot of people are talking about. I think it comes back and tests that level once again to see if there is real commitment there. Rob, what would be the catalyst for an event like that . Does there need to be one even . You know, i think its structural weakness thats now become the norm, and i dont see the economic deterioration that would cause a substantial correction, and youre getting a lot of rebalancing. Bonds and stocks needed a rebalancing in the first part of the year so thats it. If you look at where we are from growth and inflation, i dont think that suggests bond prices need to be substantially higher. I dont think bonds are saying anything. I think theyre trading in more of a normalized environment. Bruce, what would you buy here . Are you buying anything . Were long term investors and were mostly looking at data that is indicative of the environmental, social, and governance performance of the companies. Health care, technology, industrials, all these sectors are becoming more and more mature and the evolution of their strategies around environmental, social, and governance issues. Were looking at that as a proxy of great management and that helps us with our stock picking. Do you like a name like cisco . Its about to report earnings. Its been a drag on the dow on a day when a name like Goldman Sachs is doing incredibly well. A lot of firms who have taken on the sustainability challenge are starting to see those gains. Those companies who are laggards on those factors, those issues get priced and they get priced down. So, you know, many firms who are now adopting mature strategies, theyre starting to see the gains come from environmental, social, and governance performance that ultimately Capital Market will reflect that corporate behavior. Reaping what they grow . Something. Theres a line there somewhere im sure. Ill think of it. Thank you all. Appreciate it. We have about 50 minutes left to go before the closing bell. We have a strong session again. The dow is up 215 points. The s p 500 at this hour adding in the range of 22. As you know, janet yellen testified before congress for the First Time Since becoming fed chair. How did she do . Steve liesman, larry kudlow, and Rick Santelli give us their score cards. Im betting theyre going to be different. Might be some differences of opinion there. Later, well get more reaction to her congressional debay when im joined by jim grant here exclusively. Thats coming up in a bit. Youre watching cnbc, first in business worldwide. A business. Seeker of the sublime. You can separate runway ridiculousness. From fashion that flies off the shelves. And you. Rent from national. Because only national lets you choose any car in the aisle. And go. And only national is ranked highest in car rental Customer Satisfaction by j. D. Power. natalie ooooh, i like your style. vo so do we, business pro. So do we. Go national. Go like a pro. [ male announcer ] this man has an Accomplished Research and Analytical Group at his disposal. But even more impressive is how he puts it to work for his clients. Morning. Morning. Thanks for meeting so early. Oh, its not a big deal at all. Come on in. [ male announcer ] its how edward jones makes sense of investing. You want everything. Orksg. An expert ford technician knows your cars Health Depends on a full, complete checkup. The works. Because when it comes to feeling safe behind the wheel, going the distance and saving at the pump you want it all. Get our multipoint inspection with a a Synthetic Blend Oil change, tire rotation, Brake Inspection and more for 29. 95 or less. Get a complete vehicle checkup. Only at your ford dealer. Welcome back. New fed chair janet yellen on capitol hill all day today. Shes been barraged by questions from legislators and her answers generally indicated this is going to be all about con tin kn continuity. The market obviously like what had it heard but what about the group thats joining us. Hang onto your hats. We have steve liesman, larry kudlow, and Rick Santelli. What a dinner party that would be. Steve, you said yesterday you felt janet yellen wouldnt say much because the fed already had the message they wanted on the vets. How did she do . She did well in continuing the policy thats out there. I think she convinced the markets she basically owns the policy, knows the policy, an its a complicated policy to communicate. I want to reiterate, are you taking a live picture because theyre going to start again. This has turned from a hockey game to a Football Game to what is now a cricket game. I dont remember a time that a testimony of a fed chairman has gone on this long. I think were probably into the sixth hour here today. I think some of the highlights were that she set a pretty high bar for changing the tapering trajectory of reducing it by 10 billion saying that there would have to be a notable change in the outlook and not seeing very much at all in the emerging market crisis we had a few weeks ago. Larry, you call her the empress of the doves. I do. Lets see, doveempress. That word continuity is all over the place. One add on real quick, john boehner, speaker of the house, announced today that the Republican Caucus will go for a clean debt ceiling we got to talk about this, larry. I think thats very significant. I think it really helped the markets today. I have more to say about yellen, but dont forget, a clean debt bill. A clean debt bill. What does that say to you . That in terms of the politics here, that the democrats had more leverage than the gop on this issue . No. It says that the republicans in their caucus could not find something to get 218 votes. Wow. Its that simple. They looked at the bailout of insurance companies, they looked at the keystone pipeline, they looked at cutting spending. They couldnt get 218 votes, so boehner did the practical thing. By the way, i think this takes some relief off the debt market approximat markets. Absolutely. Bond yields went up, stock prices went up. What did you think of what janet yellen had to say today . First of all, lets quantify something. Since the close on the 5th before the fourday run, this being the fourth day that the stock market is up, and from that settlement which was, what, 15,440, were up a boat load. On that day, on the 5th, tenyear note yields closed at 2. 67 . So were up 4 or 5 points on yield, a boat load on stocks. I think that says it all. I think in terms of janet yellen, the reader coming in is where my position is, and im go over it real quickly. Basically she gets an a because theres continuity, okay . Where i come from, continuity from a bad plan to continuing that same bad plan doesnt barner an a plus. I would give her an a plus if she didnt have continuity. Enough said. Well, you know, rick is making i want to say this is going to be one of Janet Yellens greatest days. She got Big Stock Market reception, she got through her maiden voyage. Shes a very smart woman, okay, yes, but to ricks point, this is a Federal Reserve five years after the emergency recovery that still has a zero Interest Rate and a 4 trillion Balance Sheet and 2. 5 trillion of excess reserve. They dont know what to do with it. Thats point number one. Point number two, this is a fed that has no clear monetary rules. Its not a commodity rule. Its not a taylor price rule. John taylor will testify this afternoon hes already submitted testimony, the fed funds rate should be over 1 . Taylor believes, and i agree, that while the fed tapers, it should be preparing markets for an increase in the federal funds rate. Its coming out there and they should prepare for it. Yes, steve. I would just point out rules are relative. Compared to what . Compared to greenspan, bernanke put in place a lot more rules than there were before. Its true they made the 6. 5 unemployment threshold even squis squishier, but with a 2 inflation target and a lot of other things they have done, they have been much more rule based than they were before. Theres still a long way to go, i agree with that. I have never seen, and i have been around this stuff for a long time. I even worked for the new york fed in the 18th century. I have never seen a central bank that wanted, quote, more inflation. I have never seen this before. And i hope they keep their eye on commodities, on gold, on the Exchange Value of the dollar, all of which have behaved. So they have to tear away, but i hope they keep an eye on that because i, frankly, dont think average americans benefit from higher inflation at all. Well, she was asked also about the fact that people arent getting much on their savings. People who are trying to live on fixed incomes, and the explanation that she gave was, look, at a time when people want to save more than Companies Want to invest, low rates of return are going to be the norm and were trying to get the economy stronger so you do earn more on that money. Im not buying into it. You know, theres the people that donate to put the stimulus money in the system so we have regard corporate profits. We have a stock market near record highs, and all of those who saved, and i hate this line that is used so often, through no fault of their own, that should be the mantra for the os and the teens. Everybody has a sayso in the outcome of their future, and i dont think that the Federal Reserve should have a 4 trillion Balance Sheet after going rogue then turn into a giant bureaucracy five years. The both of you guys complained for years five years for years you have complained about the possibility that there would be inflation it hasnt materialized. Steve liesman, if youre honest, you will acknowledge that two years ago i acknowledged there was no inflation. I wrote about it. I acknowledge that. When is Rick Santelli going to join you on the right side of the aisle. All im saying is i have never heard of a central bank that wanted more inflation. Let me raise another point, all right . Stock market, great. Profits are rising, okay . Thats why i think its good to buy the correction. Profits are rising. But let me say this, youre going to come into the middle of this year, dont ask me exactly when, the middle of this year is going to start focusing on 2015. I believe the fed funds rate must go up next year, and the stock market will discount that six months or so in advance. Just think about that. Profits are the mothers milk of stocks, but at some point the fed funds rate is going to do what john taylor wants it to do, and i believe miss yellen, who had a great day today, should start preparing the world for that moment. Its the mothers milk of the stock market because the fed is the biggest damn cow in the world you and i disagree a little bit on that point. I think profits drive stocks. I dont think the fed is that important for the stock market. Im thinking all im if it isnt, then, larry, you should give janet yellen an email saying were not targeting anything but the Balance Sheet. Where were at is where its going to stay. Its not going to get any bigger and lets see what stocks do. I think theyre going to have to. And i think they have to start taking cash out next year but, larry they have to shrink the Balance Sheet. We have to go, guys. Im thinking for larry, curling cant end soon enough on cnbc. I know. I want to get back. Thank you both for having me. Thank you both for having me. Come back anytime. I appreciate it. See you later, steve and rick as well. You heard me say wow. They put the dow up and its continuing higher. We have yet to see any stumble this afternoon here and were at the highs of the session as we head toward the close with 40 minutes left. The industrial average up 223 points right now. Also, look at shares of tesla. They have been on fire, up more than 30 just this year, and that was after a Market Action<\/a> which he described as completely manipulated by what the fed is doing in the first place. He will be here in just a bit. Always look forward to jim grants comments. In the markets right now it has been off to the races pretty much all day and its one of those days where you havent seen much loss of momentum as the day builds. The dow up at about the high of the day. Were just off the high of the session up 211, or 1. 3 . This would be the fourth consecutive up day for the dow. First time we have seen that this new year. Nasdaq up 1. 1 , 46point gain at 4194 and as we mentioned, the s p is back above 1800. Were up 21 points or 1. 2 right now at 1821. Lets get to our Closing Bell Exchange<\/a> to talk about this rally day with Abigail Doolittle<\/a> from peek theories, bruce khan from sustainable inside capital management, steve sachs, rob stein, and kenny pocari. Rob stein yes. Is this pullback over . Whats going on . What did you make of what we were going through the first month and a half and now its off to the races again . Yeah. Well, we had a little minor correction and the economic fundamentals didnt fall off the cliff. Its a different time than it was last year and the years before. Weve entered a period of visible risk and left a period of uncertainty. A pert of uncertainty, when markets sell off, you dont step back in. With visible risk, youre able to comprehend and evaluate the risk you want to take and find a level thats appropriate to investing. The same thing happens on the upside, too, when it gets too rich. You will see a little more trading but people were looking at good opportunities. Is it too rich right now . No, i think theres some more room to go. I think the expected return for equities is higher from here. Steve, what did we learn today . The combination of janet yellen reiterating what we already knew to some extent at 8 30 in the morning seems to have helped throughout the entire session to support equities. I dont think we necessarily learned anything knew. Its a reiteration of what we knew. We might have forgot it in the last six weeks in the mini correction. The fact of the matter is the mark row economic drop back is solid. We have seen data that suggested were softening a bit, but ultimately when you step back and look at the data, theres really nothing wrong with a 3. 2 annualized gdp growth. Its not as good as the 4. 2 original estimate. You have to remember, the tenyear long term Unemployment Rate<\/a> in this country averages 6. 5 . Theres a reason the fed picked that number to begin with over a year ago. So ultimately we didnt learn anything new today but its a reiteration of the fact that the macroeconomics picture, the fundamentals, are still in place and the pause weve had in place is probably pretty healthy. Kenny, youre skeptical of the rally. I am because it doesnt have it doesnt have the momentum in it. It doesnt have enough of the buying. It feels very much a traders market versus a change in mindset. You dont have that corresponding volume to go with it. But it came after what some could argue was a climactic selloff on monday when we were down over 300 points on the dow. We were really only down at the worst case we were 8 off the high. Still not really considered a correction because we didnt get to that 10 point. Although there were some stocks within the indexes certainly that corrected more than 10 and those are the ones that investors found real value in. For the broader market, the correction wasnt really a correction. It was a trading range, right. So, therefore, im not listen, its great but i think we see the market kind of pull back again. Bruce, where do you see value and opportunity in this market . We think that markets are currently getting increasingly nervous around stranded assets. Those are assets that a lot of the fossil fuel energies are holding that are potentially going to be written down over time as carbon tax is put in place and policies around the world are starting to beef up their clean fuel standards. You really can see this in the Balance Sheets<\/a> of big oil where theyre starting to deploy more and more capital into research, development, and starting to convert that 2 trillion of cap ex they have been spending into low Carbon Economy<\/a> solutions. Abigail, youd been skeptical of this market as well. Now weve seen we put together four consecutive up days for the dow. Is this rally for ra he wieal . I think it will prove for noise, a relief rally, a bounce. I think its coverup for what is really going on and that is this years shift toward safety, bonds, gold, and the yen. They have all been rallying right out of the start of the gate this year preceding the brief but violent pull back in stocks and those three Asset Classes<\/a> still appear poised to be rallied. This tells me smart, early money does not like something somewhere, probably systemic, maybe an em, maybe even in europe at this point, and that similar to what kenny suggested, i think the real correction is to come. I think u. S. Equities are going to follow japan and the emerging markets, and the real tell here, the bonds. The bonds have been telling the truth. Follow the bonds. Thats where stocks are going, and right now the tenyear is still saying stocks will pull back more. Do you agree . I do. What is it about the bond market, that the fed is tapering and yields should be going much higher than they have been. Right. But i think that the bond market is telling you it doesnt believe it. It doesnt believe that the economy is going to be strong enough. Therefore, ultimately whats going to end up happening, is the fed going to stop the tapering, start to initiate it again . I think it comes right back to the lows of where we were last week around the 1735 level. I dont think youre going to get that big, big correction a lot of people are talking about. I think it comes back and tests that level once again to see if there is real commitment there. Rob, what would be the catalyst for an event like that . Does there need to be one even . You know, i think its structural weakness thats now become the norm, and i dont see the economic deterioration that would cause a substantial correction, and youre getting a lot of rebalancing. Bonds and stocks needed a rebalancing in the first part of the year so thats it. If you look at where we are from growth and inflation, i dont think that suggests bond prices need to be substantially higher. I dont think bonds are saying anything. I think theyre trading in more of a normalized environment. Bruce, what would you buy here . Are you buying anything . Were long term investors and were mostly looking at data that is indicative of the environmental, social, and governance performance of the companies. Health care, technology, industrials, all these sectors are becoming more and more mature and the evolution of their strategies around environmental, social, and governance issues. Were looking at that as a proxy of great management and that helps us with our stock picking. Do you like a name like cisco . Its about to report earnings. Its been a drag on the dow on a day when a name like Goldman Sachs<\/a> is doing incredibly well. A lot of firms who have taken on the sustainability challenge are starting to see those gains. Those companies who are laggards on those factors, those issues get priced and they get priced down. So, you know, many firms who are now adopting mature strategies, theyre starting to see the gains come from environmental, social, and governance performance that ultimately Capital Market<\/a> will reflect that corporate behavior. Reaping what they grow . Something. Theres a line there somewhere im sure. Ill think of it. Thank you all. Appreciate it. We have about 50 minutes left to go before the closing bell. We have a strong session again. The dow is up 215 points. The s p 500 at this hour adding in the range of 22. As you know, janet yellen testified before congress for the First Time Since<\/a> becoming fed chair. How did she do . Steve liesman, larry kudlow, and Rick Santelli<\/a> give us their score cards. Im betting theyre going to be different. Might be some differences of opinion there. Later, well get more reaction to her congressional debay when im joined by jim grant here exclusively. Thats coming up in a bit. Youre watching cnbc, first in business worldwide. A business. Seeker of the sublime. You can separate runway ridiculousness. From fashion that flies off the shelves. And you. Rent from national. Because only national lets you choose any car in the aisle. And go. And only national is ranked highest in car rental Customer Satisfaction<\/a> by j. D. Power. natalie ooooh, i like your style. vo so do we, business pro. So do we. Go national. Go like a pro. [ male announcer ] this man has an Accomplished Research<\/a> and Analytical Group<\/a> at his disposal. But even more impressive is how he puts it to work for his clients. Morning. Morning. Thanks for meeting so early. Oh, its not a big deal at all. Come on in. [ male announcer ] its how edward jones makes sense of investing. You want everything. Orksg. An expert ford technician knows your cars Health Depends<\/a> on a full, complete checkup. The works. Because when it comes to feeling safe behind the wheel, going the distance and saving at the pump you want it all. Get our multipoint inspection with a a Synthetic Blend Oil<\/a> change, tire rotation, Brake Inspection<\/a> and more for 29. 95 or less. Get a complete vehicle checkup. Only at your ford dealer. Welcome back. New fed chair janet yellen on capitol hill all day today. Shes been barraged by questions from legislators and her answers generally indicated this is going to be all about con tin kn continuity. The market obviously like what had it heard but what about the group thats joining us. Hang onto your hats. We have steve liesman, larry kudlow, and Rick Santelli<\/a>. What a dinner party that would be. Steve, you said yesterday you felt janet yellen wouldnt say much because the fed already had the message they wanted on the vets. How did she do . She did well in continuing the policy thats out there. I think she convinced the markets she basically owns the policy, knows the policy, an its a complicated policy to communicate. I want to reiterate, are you taking a live picture because theyre going to start again. This has turned from a hockey game to a Football Game<\/a> to what is now a cricket game. I dont remember a time that a testimony of a fed chairman has gone on this long. I think were probably into the sixth hour here today. I think some of the highlights were that she set a pretty high bar for changing the tapering trajectory of reducing it by 10 billion saying that there would have to be a notable change in the outlook and not seeing very much at all in the emerging market crisis we had a few weeks ago. Larry, you call her the empress of the doves. I do. Lets see, doveempress. That word continuity is all over the place. One add on real quick, john boehner, speaker of the house, announced today that the Republican Caucus<\/a> will go for a clean debt ceiling we got to talk about this, larry. I think thats very significant. I think it really helped the markets today. I have more to say about yellen, but dont forget, a clean debt bill. A clean debt bill. What does that say to you . That in terms of the politics here, that the democrats had more leverage than the gop on this issue . No. It says that the republicans in their caucus could not find something to get 218 votes. Wow. Its that simple. They looked at the bailout of insurance companies, they looked at the keystone pipeline, they looked at cutting spending. They couldnt get 218 votes, so boehner did the practical thing. By the way, i think this takes some relief off the debt market approximat markets. Absolutely. Bond yields went up, stock prices went up. What did you think of what janet yellen had to say today . First of all, lets quantify something. Since the close on the 5th before the fourday run, this being the fourth day that the stock market is up, and from that settlement which was, what, 15,440, were up a boat load. On that day, on the 5th, tenyear note yields closed at 2. 67 . So were up 4 or 5 points on yield, a boat load on stocks. I think that says it all. I think in terms of janet yellen, the reader coming in is where my position is, and im go over it real quickly. Basically she gets an a because theres continuity, okay . Where i come from, continuity from a bad plan to continuing that same bad plan doesnt barner an a plus. I would give her an a plus if she didnt have continuity. Enough said. Well, you know, rick is making i want to say this is going to be one of Janet Yellens<\/a> greatest days. She got Big Stock Market<\/a> reception, she got through her maiden voyage. Shes a very smart woman, okay, yes, but to ricks point, this is a Federal Reserve<\/a> five years after the emergency recovery that still has a zero Interest Rate<\/a> and a 4 trillion Balance Sheet<\/a> and 2. 5 trillion of excess reserve. They dont know what to do with it. Thats point number one. Point number two, this is a fed that has no clear monetary rules. Its not a commodity rule. Its not a taylor price rule. John taylor will testify this afternoon hes already submitted testimony, the fed funds rate should be over 1 . Taylor believes, and i agree, that while the fed tapers, it should be preparing markets for an increase in the federal funds rate. Its coming out there and they should prepare for it. Yes, steve. I would just point out rules are relative. Compared to what . Compared to greenspan, bernanke put in place a lot more rules than there were before. Its true they made the 6. 5 unemployment threshold even squis squishier, but with a 2 inflation target and a lot of other things they have done, they have been much more rule based than they were before. Theres still a long way to go, i agree with that. I have never seen, and i have been around this stuff for a long time. I even worked for the new york fed in the 18th century. I have never seen a central bank that wanted, quote, more inflation. I have never seen this before. And i hope they keep their eye on commodities, on gold, on the Exchange Value<\/a> of the dollar, all of which have behaved. So they have to tear away, but i hope they keep an eye on that because i, frankly, dont think average americans benefit from higher inflation at all. Well, she was asked also about the fact that people arent getting much on their savings. People who are trying to live on fixed incomes, and the explanation that she gave was, look, at a time when people want to save more than Companies Want<\/a> to invest, low rates of return are going to be the norm and were trying to get the economy stronger so you do earn more on that money. Im not buying into it. You know, theres the people that donate to put the stimulus money in the system so we have regard corporate profits. We have a stock market near record highs, and all of those who saved, and i hate this line that is used so often, through no fault of their own, that should be the mantra for the os and the teens. Everybody has a sayso in the outcome of their future, and i dont think that the Federal Reserve<\/a> should have a 4 trillion Balance Sheet<\/a> after going rogue then turn into a giant bureaucracy five years. The both of you guys complained for years five years for years you have complained about the possibility that there would be inflation it hasnt materialized. Steve liesman, if youre honest, you will acknowledge that two years ago i acknowledged there was no inflation. I wrote about it. I acknowledge that. When is Rick Santelli<\/a> going to join you on the right side of the aisle. All im saying is i have never heard of a central bank that wanted more inflation. Let me raise another point, all right . Stock market, great. Profits are rising, okay . Thats why i think its good to buy the correction. Profits are rising. But let me say this, youre going to come into the middle of this year, dont ask me exactly when, the middle of this year is going to start focusing on 2015. I believe the fed funds rate must go up next year, and the stock market will discount that six months or so in advance. Just think about that. Profits are the mothers milk of stocks, but at some point the fed funds rate is going to do what john taylor wants it to do, and i believe miss yellen, who had a great day today, should start preparing the world for that moment. Its the mothers milk of the stock market because the fed is the biggest damn cow in the world you and i disagree a little bit on that point. I think profits drive stocks. I dont think the fed is that important for the stock market. Im thinking all im if it isnt, then, larry, you should give janet yellen an email saying were not targeting anything but the Balance Sheet<\/a>. Where were at is where its going to stay. Its not going to get any bigger and lets see what stocks do. I think theyre going to have to. And i think they have to start taking cash out next year but, larry they have to shrink the Balance Sheet<\/a>. We have to go, guys. Im thinking for larry, curling cant end soon enough on cnbc. I know. I want to get back. Thank you both for having me. Thank you both for having me. Come back anytime. I appreciate it. See you later, steve and rick as well. You heard me say wow. They put the dow up and its continuing higher. We have yet to see any stumble this afternoon here and were at the highs of the session as we head toward the close with 40 minutes left. The industrial average up 223 points right now. Also, look at shares of tesla. They have been on fire, up more than 30 just this year, and that was after a Strong Performance<\/a> in 2013. The stock has now briefly crossed the 200 mark for the first time today. Can shares keep shifting into overdrive . Weve got a stock brawl on tesla coming up next. Another monster storm is about to slam the east coast we are told and put a chill on valentines day. How will it affect you and how you spend for said holiday . Will you still be able to get those flowers on time or go out to that expensive dinner . Your best tweets cnbcclosingbell coming up right here. Stay tuned. Ameriprise asked people a simple question in retirement, will you outlive your money . Uhhh. No, that cant happen. Thats the thing, you dont know how long it has to last. 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Oh, well in that case, back to vacation mode. Boots and pants and boots and pants and boots and pants and boots and pants and boots and pants. Voiceenabled bill pay. Just a tap away on the geico app. Huh, 15 minutes could save you 15 or more on car insurance. Yup, Everybody Knows<\/a> that. Well, did you know that some owls arent that wise. Dont forget about im having brunch with meagan tomorrow. Who . Seriously, you met her like three times. Who . Geico. Welcome back. So it looks like new fed chair Janet Yellens<\/a> first testimony before i dont think is a hit with investors. Its fueled a pretty big rally here on wall street. The dow is up 217 points. Dom chu, which stocks are taking us higher . It looks like the traders got that bullish catalyst they wanted from yellen. Green mountain continuing its strong run continuing in us that cocacola had taken a big stake in the country. A strong day for regeneron. Strong sales of its ilea eye care drug. On the flip side you have info blocks plummeting after they cut their Second Quarter<\/a> Sales Outlook<\/a> in part on weaker government business and a tough day for conagra, one of the worst performers on the s p 500. It lowered its outlook for the full year blaming weaker than expected demand in the consumer foods unit. Well end on tesla which topped the 200 per share level for the First Time Ever<\/a> earlier. They gained 344 in 2013 and are already up north of 30 , kelly and bill, in 2014. Back over to you. Thank you. Anecdotally, this is the stock most people ask me about. Yes. What about tesla . Should i buy it now . Should i wait . Theyre all because it is a stock that has fallen at times almost as fast as it has risen. So should you buy it at these levels around 200 sn 200 . Lets drawl it out. Andrea james and zachary karabell. Zachary is also author of leading indicators. Before we get to you, zach, andrea, im curious, at 200, how much more room do you think tesla has to run . My price target is 200, but its not the end point for tesla. If you think about it, this company captures 5 market share of, say, the 40,000 car market. It can do about 2 billion in net operating profit which is about 15 a share. So you can put a 20 multiple on that, thats 300 bucks. Okay. Mr. Zach karabell, author, youd rather buy the car though. You have to spend a lot more for that than for the stock. You would have to buy about 500 shares of the stock to do one of their higher end sedans, and, look, i have felt this way about tesla for a long while. You know, when were talking about tesla when it was 150, around that, and then it went down to 110. Now lets say you have been an owner because you believe in the story and i think theyre an incredible transformative company, no issues, no and or buts, but its an intensely momentum stock. Unless youre a momentum buyer or trader, how many people are holding onto it when it drops 40 and then goes up 50 . Its like talking about netflix seven or eight years ago. An Incredible Company<\/a> transformative and important but its hard to ride that up and down and up and down when so many people are just trading it for the momentum. Do you think the most volatile days for tesla are behind it now . I think that the stock will continue to be volatile. Youve seen in the last year its gotten a whole lot of interest from everybody is interested in tesla, people who maybe even never bought a stock before are wondering if they should buy shares. You have to have an Investment Strategy<\/a> to make money on investing in tesla, but its one that i think people should be exposed to for the long term. And thats where i think part of the issue there is i think the stock could take many years to grow into its current multiple which means we could be here a year from now and it could be at 300 and 100 a year later if theres inevitable competition and issues just because of this astronomical valuation. But is 20 times a 15 per share estimate 20 times doesnt sound that aggressive. I guess that sounds like how much earnings power you think they have. Its not getting 5 of that market in the next year. Lets face it, andrea, are you buying a car company or elon musk . Its everything. Its a car company, its a technology company, its the most innovative thing going on in auto right now. I mean, its sort of everything. And its also a bet on whats going to be sort of the next big thing, whats transforming the way we live, and tesla is one of a few companies out there doing that. So, zach . But, again, this is one of these cases where i can agree 100 with that statement as a reality in the world dont you want to buy it for five years down the road . If this stock is going to go back and forth in a 50 to 100 range, that are other things you could be in with a greater degree of confidence than i would with the Stock Movement<\/a> of this particular company over that particular time. All right. Hey, zach, whats your favorite leading indicator . The ones we should all create for ourselves, the spoke ones, not the ones we talk about every day but you have to talk to me about the book and read it. Dont give the ending away. We want to read it so my favorite is jobless claims. Thanks, guys. Thanks, andrea. Nice to see you. Appreciate it. As we head towards the final half hour of trade, the dow is up 209 points. Were having one of the strongest sessions after yesterdays weakness, bill, since july of 2012 if you string the gains together. The s p is up 20 points at this juncture. Janet yellen told congress about the state of the Housing Market<\/a>. The recovery in the housing sector slowed in the wake of last years increase in Mortgage Rates<\/a>. So is the housing recovery in jeopardy . When we come back well ask the chief Financial Officer<\/a> of the nations largest mortgage ora e originator. Let me talk to you about retirement. A 401 k is the most sound way to go. Lets talk asset allocation. Sure. You seem knowledgeable, professional. Would you trust me as your Financial Advisor<\/a> . I would. I would indeed. Well, lets be clear here. Im actually a dj. [ dance music plays ] [laughs] no way i have no Financial Experience<\/a> at all. That really is you . If theyre not a cfp pro, you just dont know. Find a certified Financial Planner<\/a> professional whos thoroughly vetted at letsmakeaplan. Org. Cfp work with the highest standard. Welcome back. If youre just joining us, rally mode on wall street. It will be the fourth consecutive up day for the dow. The dow back above 16,000. Well keep an eye on that. Thats getting kind of close right now. And the s p back above 1800. Thats the one the traders really watch, and we are about 1. 4 away from an alltime high on the s p right now, kelly. Yeah. Snap back if you have ever seen one. Earlier today in her first testimony before congress fed chair janet yellen addressed Mortgage Rates<\/a> and their impact on the housing recovery. Here is what she had to say. Growth in Business Investment<\/a> started off slowly last year but then picked up during the second half. In contrast, the recovery in the housing sector slowed in the wake of last years increase in Mortgage Rates<\/a>. Joining us for his reaction on that and a few other things to talk about with wells fargo chief Financial Officer<\/a> tim sloan, who is also a member of cnbcs cfo council. Welcome back. Good to see you in person at the floor. Good to see you, bill and kelly. Do you agree . How do you assess not only her assessment but what do you think of the Housing Market<\/a> . We would agree with her. Weve seen a slow but steady improvement in the housing industry for the last couple years. It slowed a little bit in the second half but affordability are still very good. Is it all just because of the level of Mortgage Rates<\/a>. It goes up another few ticks and things slow down again . The level of Mortgage Rates<\/a> had a big impact on mortgage volume because of how it affected refinance activity. We worked through that refinance cycle, but in terms of whats driving the housing recovery, part of it is rate but part of it is employment. Employment continues to grow. Thats a huge driver. And hopefully that would be a driver ultimately of loan demand, the kind of back to basics business that a lot of banks are eager to be in. Youre going to be heading to the Financial Services<\/a> forum shortly where a lot of people are gathered talking about the prospects for the financial industry. Do you think they are bright because it seems like all people want to talk about these days are the small peertopeer lending clubs that are popping up and growing fast. Other finance opportunities. Venture capital, for example. Where does that leave a wells fargo, even as the biggest player in the u. S. . It leaves us in fine shape. We have always had competition. Weve been in business for 161 years. Theres always new competitors coming in the market. Thats fine from our perspective. It gives our customers the opportunities to make choices. They have been choosing wells fargo a lot in the last year. Our consumer checking activity was up 4. 7 last year. Our loan volume on an annualized basis in the Fourth Quarter<\/a> was up 7 , much greater than underlying gdp. Were fine with any sort of competition. If there were no overt regulation, extra regulation, however you want to describe it since the financial crisis, what do you think that loan growth figure would look like . Would it change materially or is this an issue where you could do more if regulators would let you or that just reflects the business and demand for loans in this country . Theres no question that the changes in regulation that weve seen have had some impact on loan demand, but its a demand issue. Its not a supply issue. And so from our perspective, do we have a lot of regulations . Yes, we do. Does it make the business a little bit more complicated than it has been . It does. But i dont think that its significantly impacting loan demand today. Speaking of regulators, new York Financial<\/a> regulators put the kibosh on a multibillion dollar deal you had with the largest mortgage servicer out there. Is it dead now . And what do you there were questions about their treatment of homeowners and they wanted to look further into that before they were going to allow this partnership to go on. What can you tell us about that right now . Well, its in flux right now. They are a very good customer of ours. We have a great relationship with them. Were hopeful theyre going to be able to work out any differences they have with the regulators. This wouldnt be the first time that the regulators have ever stepped in and impacted a transaction in a Financial Services<\/a> industry. Were hopeful it works out, but if it doesnt, there are a lot of other buyers that are very interested in that portfolio. This is not a function of regulators being more aggressive than they were before the financial crisis. Are they overdoing it . Have we swung too far to the other side where theyre looking too critically at how you guys do your business right now . Theres a lot of oversight today. There were also a lot of things that were done in the industry that were inappropriate in the last cycle. We dont think that we need as much regulation as we have today, but we have it, and well get through it, and well be fine. Real quick, you bought back 5 of your shares over the last couple years. Thats offset, as the journal is pointing out today, by stock issuance. How much more do you plan to buy back at this point . Its going to be a function of how the capital plan results are reviewed by the fed. Thats going to happen in the next three to four weeks probably. Weve made it very clear that we think more return to our shareholder as opposed to less is a good thing. And thats even without carl icahn giving you guys a hard time. Thats correct. In terms of dividends and share repurchase, we returned 11. 4 billion to our shareholders last year. Our plan we submitted asked for the ability to increase that in 2014, so were hopeful the fed wont object to it and well be able to do that. Always good to see you, tim. Good to see you. Tim sloan, the chief Financial Officer<\/a> of wells fargo joining us at the New York Stock Exchange<\/a>. We can only hope its warmer in florida than it is here. Theres about 20 minutes left to go before the closing bell. Were Still Holding<\/a> in roughly where we started the hour with a gain of 200 points on the dow and a strong 21 points at the s p. When we come back, more on the rally as we head towards the close, and this item that caught our eye as well. Speedier checkouts for quick serve items coming to whole foods. The grocery chain making a deal with mobile checkout firm square. And after the bell, janet yellen making her debut as fed chair on capitol hill today. Despite the markets positive reaction, not everyone is expressed. Ill speak with james grant for his take. Well be right back. Im phyllis and i have diabetic nerve pain. When i first felt the diabetic nerve pain, of course i had no idea what it was. 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Those who have had a drug or alcohol problem may be more likely to misuse lyrica. Having less pain its a wonderful feeling. [ female announcer ] ask your doctor about lyrica today. Its specific treatment for diabetic nerve pain. To hear more of phylliss story, visit lyrica. Com. So it is four wins in four days for the major averages. Courtney reagan has been spending the day on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange<\/a>. What are you hearing . How much of this rally is about janet yellen. I know larry says this is about profits, i dont think so. I think this one is about janet yellen. The more she elaborates, the higher the stocks go. Traders especially really like the exchange that she had between congresswoman maloney about tapering the taper saying, hey, were not married to what we said. Theres no preset course. Were going to Pay Attention<\/a> to what the Economic Data<\/a> dictates and what the Financial Markets<\/a> reactions to those are. The s p 500, yeah, were having a pretty strong day here. Look at this, were up 21 points. Correction, what correction . Were about 1 , in the range of 1 from a fresh high there crossing over the 50day moving average. All s p large cap sectors are higher today. The yield on the tenyear holding pretty stead above that 2. 72 rate there. Kind of listening to the continuity in the message from janet yellen. I think thats something the markets really like to see there. Continuity can be a powerful thing. Volatility falling to a threeweek low. Yellen also noting shes paying attention to whats going on in the global Financial Markets<\/a>, watching the volatility there. We know that things have calmed down, but i think the markets like to know shes paying attention. That was a question early on, if the fed would make any changes if Financial Markets<\/a> around the world started to fall apart. As you can see, they have turned around, but im glad shes paying attention to them nonetheless. Bill . All right. Court, thanks very much. Elsewhere, fast food is coming to whole foods and were not talking about burgers and fries. Were just talking speed here. Whole foods known as a green grosser making a deal with speedy Payment Service<\/a> square. Julie boorstin joins us with the details. Julia, this could make a big difference for a company that often loses traffic because of long lines. And, kelly, this is going to make popping into whole foods for a quick bite a lot faster. Now whole foods shoppers will be able to use a Square Register<\/a> or square stand to swipe their credit card or even just wave their iphone to pay at whole foods sandwich counters, juice, and toffee bars allowing them to skip checkout lines crowded with people buying groceries. This will allow whole foods to reduce wait times and serve more customers. The high end grosser is already using square stand which is a 300 ipad stand with a builtin card reader in seven of its stores and will now turn several of its whole foods locations into labs to test additional payments innovations with square. If square, which charges on average 2. 75 per swipe, can snag even a tiny percentage of whole foods 13 billion in annual revenue, it will be a huge deal for squares bottom line. This partnership with whole foods follows squares Big Partnership<\/a> with starbucks back in august 2012 to put its mobile payments terminals in 7,000 starbucks stores. Square, which is valued at 3. 25 billion back in 2012 when it made that starbucks deal, is expected to file for an ipo later this year. Guys, this could really help. Back over to you. Thank you very much. Were heading toward the close, 15 minutes left in the trading session here. Do you think well close above 16,000 today . Thats the question for the dow. If janet yellen keeps talking. And the s p is still above 1800. That looks like well be doing that. Thats more important for the traders today. We want to take you to the close in whats been a surprising market lately. Well be right back after a short break. We know were not the center of your life, but well do our best to help you connect to what is. We got about ten minutes left in the trading session and were starting to lose a little altitude. Back below 16,000. Thats it. Its light out. I spoke too soon. Joining us is David Seaberg<\/a> from cowan and company. What are you guys talking about . It feels good. Im relishing in the fact that i have told you to buy the dip. Were down 6 , we had our pullback and i think people are comfortable with the fact of what janet had to say today. She was she addressed the jobs anomaly and said dont look into that too, too much. I think she was good at addressing some issues people had concerns with and they bought into it. What about the fact theres not much volume. People around here talking about that a little bit. We didnt have much volume yesterday and today you think now that weve got the news, people will come in but thats not really happening. We had low volume rallies all last year. This is the new normal. Good sign. I think we have to get used to this lower volume compared to what . Absolutely. Anyway, we get caught in the weeds on that. Does this continue or do we need a better pullback to weed out the weak hands here . We had the pullback. Thats it . People were waiting for it, at least for the near term. It continues if we dont start to see the Economic Growth<\/a> that janet was referring to today. At the end of 13 we were all convinced that we were going to see the continuation of good economic numbers. We were derailed a little bit with the jobs and ism numbers. She addressed that a little bit today and said dont look into that too, too much. We have an economy thats gaining momentum. If we dont see the numbers start to come together, i do think you can see people back off a little bit. And just as importantly perhaps she also said that she didnt consider this market i forget exactly how she put it but overvalued. Anyone who thought she might be more concerned about macroprudential could relax. Do you want to hold that there is a second . Thanks. You another know who youre going to see on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange<\/a>. Paul rogers the lead singer with bad company all those years and hes here promoting a new cd out called the royal sessions. Are you here to in the mood to make some money today . Well, you know, always in the mood to make some money. Actually what im here for is to bring some memphis soul to the heart of wall street for kids education. So will you have this is this part of the foundation thats for that purpose or how does that work . We made it in memphis and all the proceeds will go back sto stacks academy of music for the kids. He made it because we love this music so much and its given me so much. So want to give something back. Obviously a labor of love there. So do you think that janet yellen should continue the taper for the Federal Reserve<\/a> . Yeah. Yeah, okay. A good idea. Have you ever rang the bell at the New York Stock Exchange<\/a> . I think this is the first time. Youre in for a real treat. Everybody is excited to have you here. I know theyre going to want to get you up to the balcony so you can get the ringing done. Thank you. Its a real honor to be here. We will be listening at 4 00 p. M. So will all of our viewers. Looking forward to it. It will be a treat. He will be singing right after the top of the hour. Paul, good to see you. Good to see you. Thanks for joining us. Paul rodgers of bad company. Its called paul rodgers, the royal sessions. Its the songs that inspired him. I just happen to have a hand held mic in case that happens. Well come back with the closing countdown. After the bell fed critic jim grant explains why he says investors cant trust this market. Valuations affected by the fed, why he feels that with either ben bernanke or janet yellen at the helm, this is a problem. Youre watching cnbc, first in business worldwide. Open to ambition. Open to bold ideas. Thats why new york has a new plan dozens of tax free zones all across the state. Move here, expand here, or start a new business here and pay no taxes for ten years. Were new york. If theres something that creates more jobs, and grows more businesses. Were open to it. Start a taxfree business at startupny. Com. We are the thinkers. The job jugglers. The up allnighters. And the ones who turn ideas into action. Weve made our passions our lifes work. We strive for the moments where we can say, i did it we are entrepreneurs who started it all. With a signature. Legalzoom has helped start over 1 million businesses, turning dreamers into business owners. And were here to help start yours. 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Coming up on the four minute mark here, and i dont know, doesnt look like were going to finish above 16,000 on the dow. We keep looking at this weekly chart of the industrial average. Again, we dont see that 300 point decline of a week ago monday, but we sort of bottomed out at the 15,400 range. Weve been climbing ever since and in that time the dow is up 3. 5 . Thats pretty good period of time over this four trading day period. The four consecutive up days. As for the yield on the tenyear, theres been even more volatility there as you can see over the last since last wednesday or the end of trading on tuesday, and in that time if you can put it in these terms, the yield on the tenyear has gone up by 4. 4 . So the dow is up 3. 5 but the yield on the tenyear has gone up even more, terry. What do you make of this rally weve been in here . Is this for real . I think it is to a large extent that we expected some kind of decent selloff in january. 7 . 7 was a little more than we thought. What were looking at now is a little more technical damage than i thought in terms of moving averages and things like that. What happened overall is positive for investors to have an opportunity to get back in but i dont think its back off to the races yet. I think well have to do a little work between 15,700 and 16,000. I think youll see the s p 500 need to do a little work around the 1800 level before we move higher. But all decent entry points for investors. Youre not ready to rush back in is what youre saying. Weve been buying the dip. That was our mandate all along. We got some better prices than expected and we got a little fear inside some of that buying towards the end. When they turned around, we all got a sigh of relief and its a decent time to bail out of some of it and take a second look as we do some more look at the lower levels or middle range levels. Some technicians are watching gold right now and its coming back. Im watching it, too. Almost at 1,300 and there are those who feel that could have a negative impact on the stock market at some point. Im beginning to feel theres a disconnection between them as gold trades a little more like a currency nowadays. You got countries that are inventorying gold and continue to do so like china. Just in the paper the other day. Im really looking at them as being independent, and i actually personally believe gold is going to take a hit below 1200 into the as we move into the Second Quarter<\/a> of this year and confidence builds with the u. S. Markets. So you wouldnt be buying gold at these levels. I would never buy gold i know, but in terms of your opinion. I think gold goes lower. The debate on the floor has been was this about janet yellen or was it simply the fact that the Congress House<\/a> is going to vote tonight on a debt ceiling bill that has no conditions attached to it which is a big victory for the president at this point assuming that this thing passes . We wont have to worry about the debt ceiling for another year here. Well, i think its more of a situation where the markets are hearing what they wanted to hear from yellen. They wanted some reinforcement she was going to be somewhat on the same page as they originally read. The market welcomed that. I think shes intelligent in her approach and thats what the market is looking at right now. The debt ceiling was kind of a given. We knew the Republican Party<\/a> couldnt risk the abyss again. We knew that that was going to come. So that was kind of built in. I think the market right now is a little exuberant over the fact they see somebody thats going to continue this policy. I still think were in for a little more weakness. Good to see you, terry. Pleasure. Thank you for joining us. Were going to go out off the highs of the session. Still a decent rally continuing. First fourday gain we have seen for the dow consecutively in this new year. Stay tuned now. We want to hear what james grant, one of the firercest fed critics has to say about janet yellen. Ill see you tomorrow, kelly. Thank you, bill. Welcome to the closing bell. Im kelly evans. With stocks posting their first fourday win streak of the year, the dow putting up 189 points we knew that was about to happen. Paul rodgers is here in the house. He, of course, of bad company fame. We have some background vocals here. Some mood music, if you will, as we digest these markets. Lets listen to paul for just a moment. All right. Again, thats paul rodgers, and hell be entertaining people on the floor for the next moment or two as he brings out a new cd. I believe well just press on. Well carry on, guys, and try to talk a little bit about this market today. Not that we dont mind a little bit of a concert, but dr. J, can we call it a bravado performance for the markets or janet yellen today i guess . Well, it was a fabulous performance by the market and by janet yellen today. As you said at the top, kelly, thats what people are worried about, was it going to be real or was it going to be exactly like bernanke . Now it is, that she really nailed it. She stuck the landing. Thats why were up so strong today, kelly. All right. The markets wanted a female version of ben bernanke and they got it today with janet yellen. She said exactly what everyone wanted to hear and the market rallied. Kate . I have to agree. I mean, obviously the market hates a negative surprise but they love a positive one, right . So there was some uncertainty about what yellen would say, what tone she would strike. We talked about this last week, would she make a break from bernanke . The data seems a little murky. I was in a meeting earlier with a cfo who said we learned to not read too much into any given month of Economic Data<\/a>, and i think shes taking that kind of thinking into account. Carol, sorry, what were you going to say . I think this music is apropos because its almost like the party continues. Janet yellen is the keeper of the punch bowl. The revelry will still continue and all the partiers are like party on. Which makes me concerned but apparently all the other investors love it. It was interesting to look at the moves in some Precious Metals<\/a> today. The dollar weakening. How much further does this move go do you guys think . Im having a hard time hearing you, but Precious Metals<\/a>, that was a real head scratcher today because gold was up so strong, kelly, and its been up thats the outperforming sector all year. It continued today despite the fact that miss yellen said tapering is on and its going to continue. What do you make of that . I think it might have just got sold off too hard. I think theres something to that, and if you talk to people who invest in gold either through the etf or the commodity, they would tell you its close to enterprise value and on a fundamental level it may be just too oversold as john was saying. Maybe theres some legs there even when the stock market is doing well. A tale of two markets and a tale of two investors. There are those who believe that theres going to be the taper. There are those who think that the party is going to continue, and i think youre seeing that bifurcation in the Different Levels<\/a> were seeing today. All right. I also want to bring in allen valdez im sorry, tim seymour is the joining us from fast money fame. What do you make of the market . People have brought up the fact extreme positioning was at work. We had two, three standard deviation events in riskier assets for sure. I think janet yellen today gives a little more certainty to fed policy, and thats maybe a difficult thing to say, but i think she hit it down the middle of the fairway. To the doves out there, there is some sense that they could breach the inflation expectation, could breach the unemployment requirement, and that means that the fed may be around for longer than people think. But people freaked out a week ago on no change in fundamental data in my view, and that was based upon mostly extreme positioning and people being concerned about emerging markets. They dont invest there, and thats a problem. I think thats interesting. We saw some news today, perhaps one of the first casualties of the recent volatility, that Brevin Howard<\/a> fund that managed about 2. 5 billion and is closing after being down 15 last year which as far as i have seen is probably the worst of the Major Hedge Fund<\/a> companies in em. They had a soft january down about 1. 5 , but thats not terrible given whats happened in the world with a number of currencies. Im wondering if that market is going to stabilize a little bit just from my anecdotal poll. Investors seem jittery and even some sovereign wealth funds lost money. A lot of people lost money. I think this is a great time to raise funds for an emerging market fund. Brevin howard is one of the best in the world. Seeing fund outflows, a lot of the big guys sometimes are atms for fund flow that is are uncondominiumed. Theres a lot of momentum money that at times think its great to own emerging markets. I think thats one of the concerns were seeing. A lot of traders are telling me today was a bungee cord move back up. That kind of snap back, that kind of volatility of a snap back, thats got some people worried. If you think about whats changed over the past three weeks, what has changed . The fundamental picture is still being questioned. Theres still a lot of big earnings coming up. A lot of people are concerned a little bit, are we snapping back too quickly. Lets bring in allen valdez joining us on the floor from dm e securities. What about the speed of the snapback . I think this whole year will be total volatility. I agree, it is a snap back. But we were overdone on the sell side a couple weeks ago. So now its just that normal snap back. But were going to see this volatility continue all year. Anytime you get news or data, this market is so driven on news and data it just throws it to the extreme all the time. Wait a minute, but shouldnt the market be driven by news and data. What market isnt . It is but it goes to the extreme. Were off 200 points, basically 192 points. Years ago we would have never saw a move like this in one day. Now you see these moves constantly in one day. Although the market is now valued at 16,000 or the index is at 16,000 and years ago it would have been in the low thousands. Its time to buy volatility. This is a great opportunity. You look at what markets have done over the last five to ten days. That tells you when vol is dipping lower, if you believe 2014 is the market you said its going to be, you want to be owning vol here. Three or four years ago the fed was not the key fundamental, right . We werent so laser focused on what Central Banks<\/a> were doing here and in other countries. Whereas now its crucially important. You could actually make sense of the news. Thats the problem. Its news driven but we cant make sense of the news because when unemployment numbers go down the market goes up. We will continue to sow that volatility throughout the entire year. What about in terms of the action on the buy side, the talk about the volume a little bit. People were saying, look, maybe there wasnt a lot of volume today but as bill suggested last hour, maybe thats just the new normal. I think it is the new normal because last year we saw the volume never got busy upside or downside. The down sooird we saw a little more volume but not much. The upside we never saw any volume. But that is the new normal. Again, im going to stress, i think we will see volatility the whole year and i think its the thing to trade. And were looking again across some of the other Asset Classes<\/a>. Its not just the equity markets which responded positively. Were also watching the bond space where thats last hour when we were talking to some of our commenters you a the top of the three, they were saying were worried because we feel like the bond market is the smarter guy in the room i concur. Its sitting at a level of 2. 7 and that correlates to a weak economy. I never bought into all the quantitative easing. If you look at the fundamentals of whats going on in the economy, it is very sluggish at best. I dont see any catalyst for growth. Were really at a point where were not going to be able to squeeze much more out of profit margins. That means its going to be hard to financially engineer these earnings over and over again. Companies have not made the investments to drive growth. I do not see the obvious catalyst for growth. I dont even see a nonobvious catalyst for growth here. Speaking of earnings, we have a lot of big earnings coming up. Were 75 through but we have big names. Walmart, hp, priceline. All these big stocks which we heard some not great news from. Theyre going to be coming out with earnings and investors will start to question the fundamental picture. Is the recovery there. If you look at big tech or old tech and also some of the more consumer focused names, those have been weak spots. I think concern areas for a lot of people. Could be an important tell. Yeah, and a lot of people are actually becoming very, very focused on performance after these earnings. Only about 53 of companies now have responded positively to positive earnings. Thats down from 58 over a fiveyear average. So it shows you investors are getting choosey and picky. They want to see real growth, not just a broad line earnings beat or revenue beat. Thanks, everybody. Olympic curling is coming up at 5 00 p. M. By the way on this channel, but get your Second Screen<\/a> ready because mr. Tim seymour and the fast money freestyle will be streaming live on fastmoney. Cnbc. Com and that also starts at 5 00 p. M. Our reporters from the New York Stock Exchange<\/a>, the nasdaq, and the chicago merc chiming in on whether this rally has legs. And in terms of staying the course, Federal Reserve<\/a> chair janet yellen saying the central bank will keep taking its foot off the stimulus pedal even as the job Market Recovery<\/a> looks, quote, far from complete. Jim grapnt grades her first Public Comments<\/a> since becoming fed chief. Thats all coming up. Youre watching cnbc, first in business worldwide. Out there. In here. 1881 tdd 18886486021 out there, tdd 18886486021 there are stocks on the move. Tdd 18886486021 in here, streetsmart edge has tdd 18886486021 chart pattern recognition tdd 18886486021 which shows you which ones are bullish or bearish. Tdd 18886486021 now, earn 300 commissionfree online trades. Tdd 18886486021 call 18886486021 tdd 18886486021 or go to schwab. Com trading to learn how. Tdd 18886486021 our trading specialists can tdd 18886486021 help you set up your platform. Tdd 18886486021 because when your tools look the way you want tdd 18886486021 and work the way you think, you can trade at your best. Tdd 18886486021 get it all with no trade minimum. Tdd 18886486021 and only 8. 95 a trade. Tdd 18886486021 open an account and earn 300 commissionfree online trades. Tdd 18886486021 call 18886486021 to learn more. Tdd 18886486021 so you can take charge tdd 18886486021 of your trading. Welcome back. This is the winter that started early and now seemingly is never ending. Another huge storm impacting much of the country and our economy, by the way. Weather channel meteorologist chris warren tracking the storm that some are calling historic. Havent we been here before, chris . Well, we have, but this doesnt happen too often, when you get the potential for a major ice storm. Just a couple weeks ago it was snow for much of the south. Now were adding in the ice, and the impacts with the ice and the snow from texas all the way up to new england, almost 60 Million People<\/a> potentially impacted. A big, big issue will be the ice happening tonight and tomorrow. Greatest risk here from east of atlanta all the way up to raleigh, and here this could be significant with Power Outages<\/a> potentially lasting for days. And that is likely for parts of georgia into North Carolina<\/a> and even as far north as virginia. Snow, around a foot in the appalachians from north georgia all the way up into maryland and pennsylvania, and then this storm rolls up into the northeast. There could be in the inland locations 8 to 12 inches of snow, a food of snow will be possible. It will be tricky though, where that rain snow line sets up from d. C. To new york, could be a couple inches, maybe wet roads, or could be a few toself inch s search shch several inches. Can you tell us when it might hit. It seems both the amount of snow and ice and the timing of the storm continues to change every time we check. Well, right now its going on in dallas. Its going on throughout parts of louisiana, northern louisiana, and then tonight overnight while most people are sleeping in the southeast, thats when its going to get bad. So wherever you are at midnight tonight, plan on being there for a couple of days. Geez. During the day yeah, seriously, this is a big deal. Wednesday night and during the day thursday into friday, thats when we will see the snow moving into the northeast. All right. Were going to bust out the sleeping bags at the stock exchange. Thank you very much, sir. Appreciate it. Another big one. Bringing it back to the markets, the dow posting its first fourday winning streak of the year. Dominic chu, lots of lovers today. I have to find my sleeping bag, kelly. Goldman sachs is leading the dow higher. It had its best day since december of last year. A nice move for Goldman Sachs<\/a>. Also cvs caremark moved higher. Two companies gained ground on a drug deal. Cadence pharmaceuticals surged after they agreed to be acquired by a Specialty Pharma Company<\/a> for 1. 3 billion or 14 a share. Now, a tough day though for the Animal Sciences<\/a> company. Gave a disappointing outlook for the full year. We have also got a slew of after hours earning reports. Well bring you the details as they become available. Lets get more on todays huge rally. The panel is back with me. Courtney reagan also joining us from the New York Stock Exchange<\/a>, seema mody at the nasdaq and Rick Santelli<\/a> at the chicago mercantile exchange. A huge day, dr. J. A lot of people are saying too far, too fast. Disagree. Disagree. And i think the point that you made about when youre at 16,000 or thereabouts, 200point move is not a huge move. A 200point move on a 5,000 point index is a big move. Up here, not so big. The fact that the market doesnt like what it doesnt know when there are uncertains out there, the market gets nervous about that, that was the jobs report last week. That was janet yellen today. Now we know about both t, the storm clouds moved. I think what the market liked to hear and what you all have been talking about is the continuity in the message from janet yellen. Not too much of a departure from her predecessor ben bernanke, so there is sort of quelling a bit of that uncertainty as dr. J was just suggesting there and thats what the market liked and it was interesting, the more she elaborated, the more comfortable she was explaining her position and what the fom c is thinkic i the higher the stocks moved. As far as if its too far, too fast, time will tell. What about over at the nasdaq. We started the year with the indexes behaving very differently but lately the action has gotten everyone seems to be on the same page. Now the nasdaq is back in the green for the year. The nasdaq up about 0. 3 yeartodate. Earnings continue to be the big catalyst for technology. Youre talking about f5 networks, facebook, all these companies are up double digits thanks to better than expected earnings. The Technology Sector<\/a> has had a nice run. With that said, Brian Marshall<\/a> says i. T. Budgets slowly are increases and valuations are seen as attractive and many more Tech Companies<\/a> are becoming more shareholder friendly. More of these companies upping dividends, issuing buybacks. Rick, its almost the blink and you missed it selloff though. Well, you know, i think when it comes to treasuries, i still think theres a big disconnect here. Treasuries arent really caring much about continuity. Think about the last four days you referenced. 550 points roughly in the dow answered by five basis points in the tenyear. Most of those were today. 10 00 eastern when the stock market was 150 appointments lower than it closed, we were at 2. 71 . We had basically one basis points for those 150 points. Think about that. I think it speaks volumes, and i also rick, what does that tell you . Which side of the move then if i were just to take my cues from the tenyear, mr. Santelli, does that mean that the move up i should have faded or does that mean the move down like, i dont understand where that leaves us relative to where we were a couple weeks ago. Well, i think where it leaves us is the stock market could have a big bounce. It doesnt mean theres a economic bounce around the corner. I think the treasury market is most responsive when stocks are going down. If youre a believer that the job reports, the retail sales on thursday arent going to be barn burners, then i think the bond market has it right and look for a little give back in stocks which would promote the buying which is whats most responsive in the treasury market for 2014. And i think thats a really important point because a lot of people now, yes, we have the veil of uncertainly gone now that janet yellen has given her testimony. But the question is how do you put january in context . Was it just animal spirits as one economist told me. Just all these emerging markets concerns are gone in no, those issues are still out there. Its a ging of things. Foul weather slowing everything down, creating some literal uncertainty in terms of getting to work and productivity. Then you had a feeling that perhaps the market was overbought and valuations were overzealous and we were due for some sort of correction. Thats something i had been hearing from january 1st basically, not to mention the currency weaknesses. Granted they didnt amount to a ton of Global Market<\/a> share, but there were enough data points to make people feel nervous. Im curious, because you had mentioned at the beginning of the year people calling for 10 to 15 correction. We had a max of 7 at the lows last week. Does that change the view of the folks youre talking to or do they feel were just the eye of the storm . I think theyre sort of medium term bullish. I think theyll think well have a good year, not a 2013, but a good solid year with maybe a more than 10 rise in the stock market, and that maybe were past this blip. Now, who is to say, right . The folks i was talking to were saying they expected to see 5 to 15 correction in february and or march. So there could be another blip to come certainty. A lot of people are expecting a more volatile 2014 in general. I think that this is coming way too back too quickly. I would have liked to hear from Rick Santelli<\/a>. I assume e agrees with me just as a general rule. This is a chicago thing that rick and i have going on and a common sense thing but i think qe at this point is not helping the economy. Its actually hurting the economy. Its creating a disconnect. Its creating a reason for companies to not put people back to work long term. That is a bad thing. Even though its a good thing in the short term for wall street. Long term its a bad thing for wall street and main street. Last word, rick, briefly. I completely agree. I think what we need to do is get back to basics. If continuity means more of ben bernanke and more qe and unknown whether were actually going to taper, i dont believe thats a good thing. Thanks very much for joining us this hour. A lot to digest as we look at the big move in markets today. Facing the fed, up next, jim grant will speak with me exclusively. Well talk about Janet Yellens<\/a> market boosting testimony, fed policy generally, and your money. Dont go anywhere. [ male announcer ] the new new york is open. Open to innovation. Open to ambition. Open to bold ideas. Thats why new york has a new plan dozens of tax free zones all across the state. Move here, expand here, or start a new business here and pay no taxes for ten years. Were new york. If theres something that creates more jobs, and grows more businesses. Were open to it. Start a taxfree business at startupny. Com. Were open to it. Ameriprise asked people a simple question can you keep your lifestyle in retirement . I dont want to think about the alternative. I dont even know how to answer that. I mean, no one knows how long their money is going to last. I try not to worry, but you worry. What happens when your paychecks stop . Because everyone has retirement questions. Ameriprise created the exclusive confident retirement approach. To get the real answers you need. Start building your confident retirement today. A 401 k is the most sound way to go. Lets talk asset allocation. Sure. You seem knowledgeable, professional. Would you trust me as your Financial Advisor<\/a> . I would. I would indeed. Well, lets be clear here. Im actually a dj. [ dance music plays ] [laughs] no way i have no Financial Experience<\/a> at all. That really is you . If theyre not a cfp pro, you just dont know. Find a certified Financial Planner<\/a> professional whos thoroughly vetted at letsmakeaplan. Org. Cfp work with the highest standard. Welcome back. Weve some earnings to get through. Dom . Lets start off with an earningsish type story. Procter gamble will lower its 2014 guidance due to currency fluctuations. You can see their stock is trading off a half a percent. They think some Currency Exposure<\/a> to venezuela may have an impact. Also an earnings story per se. Fire eye out with his Fourth Quarter<\/a> results after the bell. Posting a narrower loss than the street was expecting but the stock is getting hit after it lowered its revenue guidance for first quarter. Fire eye shares down 5 , 6 in the after market. Back over to you. Thank you. Fed chairman janet yellen giving the market a boost. The dow is up 192 points as you can see. This after confirming the feds commitment to a gradual taper, some confidence in the economic outlook, and continued low rates. She also raised concern that the labor Market Recovery<\/a> is, quote, far from complete. Lets get reaction to all of this with jim grant from grants Interest Rate<\/a> observer. A critic of the fed joining me now exclusively. Jim, first of all, thank you for being here. Youre entirely welcome. A pleasure. Secondly, what did you make of the comments today from janet yellen and the markets reaction . Well, she missed one thing. She neglected to tell us that the fed is continuing on this unprecedented exercise in price control. Janet yellen is meant to be more plain spoken than her press ses predecessors but a spontaneous expression of her intent would be as follows, what we mean to do is to continue to nationalize the yield curve. We want to make the federal funds rate a government rate as we have, and we would like to enlist the stock market in a program of wealth for the security holders of america. That would be the essential program in plain english. The fed has in its 100year past manipulated Interest Rate<\/a>s before but never before now has it treated the stock market as if it were a lever of National Public<\/a> policy, which it is doing. The fed has its thumb on the scales of our finances. And certainly they would point to that and say, well, im sure in the back of their mind they think a higher stock market, it all moves in the same direction, right . They dont have to pick and choose. They call it the portfolio balance which sounds better than manipulation. Youre talking about the bench mark rates the fed sets. We know all debt trades on the open market. We know the fed is a big player there, but the influence theyve had even going into last year when they still owned a big portion of our debt is clearly still overwhelmed by the broader impact of the market. When people are worried, for example, theres going to be massive change in the taper or rate picture. So while its clear they are setting the price of the benchmark rate, the other rates still fluctuate according to where Market Participants<\/a> see them and see the future. Its a kind of a dance or a duet. Theres a market and there is the fed, but as long as the fed promises zero funding costs, what you find is credit spreads getting very tight. What you find is a great euphoria settling over almost all of the socalled risk credit markets, whether its sovereign debt, whether its corporate credit, whether its bank debt. There is a terrific there has been a terrific rally in the prices of all these securities and the fed does not control them, but it heavily influences them all. So you wouldnt touch bank debt here. Im not sure about that. Its an excellent way, kelly. Here is one line of sight. I would submit to you that biotech is the most worrying portion of the stock market, not to be sure the people who were long and have been long and have been mining money from this, but people will say the stock market might not be cheap anymore. It might be on the upper edge of fairly valued, but they say there really is no sign of speculative excess. They are not looking at the 700oddbillion dollar segment. The biotech segment is plain wacky. By every indication, ipos. If the market is open, biotech goes up. Thats the rule. Of all the markets that ought not to be connected to the fed ought to be the quite specific and quite scientifically based earnings power of these developers of but we do see that. Because day after day we will talk about stocks that have moved up 800 if they have a drug thats approved or fall 50 if they have a drug thats not. Or not fall if they have a drug thats kicked out or some of those, too. Youre only at 50 if a drug gets rejected. What then do you see whats an investor to do . If they say, jim, i see the world the way you see it, i have the same concerns you do, but do we all have to hold our nose and be fully invested bears or look to gold which has not been the best investment it has not been is exactly right but it might not be indicative of the next 15 months. Im a seemingly a genetically inclined gold bull. I do like the stuff. But i like it specifically because it represents an alternative to the regime of our Central Banks<\/a>. Think of gold as bit coycoin wit an algorithm. I say janet yellen has embarked on if its a reciprocal of their faith in janet yellen indeed. The reason why its attractive is its something thats independent of the fed. It is an alternative monetary asset and to the extent people lose confident in the unsecured fiat issuance of Central Banks<\/a> the world over, they will come to gold. That is one thought on investing. We have been since late 2008, grants has been fairly constructive on certainly on credit and on many equities as well. We had our gala winter whisk issue. More characteristic of our reputation we are on the bearish side. We think theres more risk than prospective reward as things are now valued. On that point where in the cycle then it sounds like what youre Say Something<\/a> were approaching the late phases i guess i have been known to be early. Im not sure this is a late phase. We think its increasingly a risky phase, and we find also we tend to do our work from the bottom up rather than from the top down. Were finding much more interesting ideas on the short side of the equity market than we are long ideas. Theres always something to do long and short, and if you would asked me decades ago what the future held, i would have given you an emphatic answer. As it is so many birthday candles, i have become rather humbler in the face of the future but were finding a lot more interesting names on the short side. Are you shorting biotech . Im not that courageous. We have journalistically shorted journalistically shorted. No margin calls. Hope to have you back very soon. Jim grant. A massive winter storm heading east just in time for valentines day. Weve been asking you to tweet us and let us know if this blizzard will put a freeze on how you plan to spend or how to celebrate the holiday. cnbcclosingbell is the way to reach us. Is mexico a better place to invest than the u. S. . Dont scoff. Well talk about that right after this. Make it happen with fidelity active trader pro. Its one more innovative reason serious investors are choosing fidelity. Call or click to open your fidelity account today. Welcome back. One of the top stories so far this year is emerging markets and the way they have take an hit but thats not stopping mexicos finance minister from the being optimistic. He says mexico is still one of the worlds bright spots. Here is, in fact, what he told me. All emerging markets currencies have been hit over the past few weeks, but keep in mind for the last 13 months the peso is only down 3. 5 whereas other currencies like the currency of indonesia, turkey, or south africa are down more than 20 . Even brazil is down 16 . The markets are treating mexico differently. Thats based on mexicos stronger fundamentals and an aggressive reform agenda thats progrowth. So should you be investing in mexico etfs other kinds of mexican based investments . Joining me is Anthony Scaramucci<\/a> and also with us, john spellenzoni, and its great to see you both. Anthony, first to you. How much opportunity is there in mexico and, you know, people have been so bullish. Do we need to worry that theres too much optimism about how theyre doing . Kelly, i think the main driver is still the fed and where the tapering is going to be. Most of the emerging Market Countries<\/a> are going to be dampened by continued fed tapering. Mexico has a lot of great things going for it. I had the community to see that speech in davos a few weeks ago that the president of mexico made. Very probusiness, very proreform. Youre going to see more Foreign Energy<\/a> investments there. Its the first time in 50 years that people will be able to do that, and they have the best Credit Rating<\/a> now or the second best in latin america, second to chile. So good positives there, but you have to be worried about gdp numbers because if you look at production and manufacturing, theyre down a little bit. February 21st theyre going to announce gdp. My guess is its a little sluggish, less so than they had expected. So i would be cautious here in mexico and most of the emerging markets. John, what is the best way for investors then, if you agree that there is a longer term story to like here, how do you play it . Do you play it by buying mexican etfs or play it by buying oil and gas majors, for example . I think theres a lot of companies obviously in the United States<\/a> that are going to benefit with mexico doing away with their basic monopoly and hoping it up to foreign ownership. That process was a 75year closed market just starting to open up now. Thats going to take a little bit of time to get people on the ground, do some tests, see whats going on, you know, chevron obviously a big player. Exxonmobil, the big boys. Today we saw energy in the United States<\/a> really have a big move and i think that was because of the lmg move today in terms of the fact that the canal possibly export lng along with so i think those are some of the positives that we see. I think short term obviously they raised taxes in mexico. That kind of hit their economy a little bit. But because they raised taxes, moody upgraded them to a status. I think thats a positive. So how do you play it . Do you like the etfs here . Well, i think that you could if you have to have exposure to an emerging market, why not mexico . Its close. I think the etfs are a way to play it. You could play it through the u. S. Majors. Theyre all going to be there. Theyll increase their drilling capacity. Exxonmobil, chevron, all those companies that have to do with Oil Infrastructure<\/a> and have to partner with companies down in mexico. Thats a way the United States<\/a> will be able to benefit if we do not do away with the jones act. Those majors operating in mexico could export through mexico. Anthony thats a big positive the market is coming to grips with. Okay. So what about you and what about the performance i think its. Mww, one of the biggest mexican etfs. You have a couple things to worry about, their growth prospects, pretty High Expectations<\/a> there. And also what happens with the currency which even though its done better than turkey and indonesia is still off year on year. Well, but i do think that john is referencing the tax increases will certainly help as it relates to the credit side and also to the currency, but my big problem is whats going on today, kelly, and thats janet yellen and the direction of the fed. Ultimately, unfortunately, over the next quarter or so, most of the investments in the emerging markets will be driven by the fed. I appreciate what the finance minister is saying. He wants to decouple mexico from the rest of the emerging markets but im sorry to say i dont think thats going to happen. So more continued fed tapering, i think mexico is going to, unfortunately, be on the bear side in the near term, but i do love the longterm prospects because of what theyre doing in the government. At what point do you get involved . Do you wait for the equity market to sell off there . What entry point then do you look for . I think the best recommendation would be lets see where the fed is doing to be in six months. There is certainly a positive bias to mexico and the government there is certainly helping. If youre a longterm investor and you got to pick an emerging market, i agree with john that that etf is probably a good one. Im just in general cautious. Ill tell you, two weeks ago a viewer in davos with us, kelly, you would have been worried about the emerging markets. We met with the indonesian finance minister, the mexican finance minister, chile, everybody is concerned about the same thing, and thats the fed, and thats why we at skybridge are may moway more cautious rig. Wait until the dust settles, if you will. A lot of people say if you want to play mexico, just play the u. S. Because it will be a north american story. Guys, thank you. Good to see you, anthony and john. Wall street or the weather or is it a wildcard. Find out whats percolating to the top of the hot list. Plus im Michelle Carusocabrera<\/a> in sochi, russia, at the winter olympics. Coming up on the closing bell, more on some of the crazy clothing that were seeing in the curling competition. Full, complete checkup. Ealth da the works. Because when it comes to feeling safe behind the wheel, going the distance and saving at the pump you want it all. Get our multipoint inspection with a a Synthetic Blend Oil<\/a> change, tire rotation, Brake Inspection<\/a> and more for 29. 95 or less. Get a complete vehicle checkup. Only at your ford dealer. She loves a lot of its what you love about her. But your erectile dysfunction that could be a question of blood flow. Cialis tadalafil for daily use helps you be Ready Anytime<\/a> the moments right. You can be more confident in your ability to be ready. And the same cialis is the only daily ed tablet approved to treat ed and symptoms of bph, like needing to go frequently or urgently. Tell your doctor about all your medical conditions and medications, and ask if your heart is healthy enough for sexual activity. Ly use and a 30tablet free trial. Welcome back. Lets get a check on some names moving in niece afterhours. Dom chu, what are you seeing . Lets figure out whats going on in terms of the overall picture for a couple companies out with earnings after the bell. Were going it start off with trip adviser which matched street estimates of 21 cents a share. Sales coming in a bit above forecast. That stock you can see currently trading a bit to the upside. Now also fossil easily beating street expectation in the Fourth Quarter<\/a> with sales also coming in ahead of forecasts. Its guidance was a bit of a mixed bag. First quarter earnings were lower than street views. Sales higher than street expectations. Its up a little bit in the after hours as well. Check out mule rubber maid. It lost ground going into the closing bell after its graco unit said its recalling 3. 8 million car seats for flaws with a belt buckle that could be jammed and would be unable to open. Back over to you. Thanks very much. Weve had cold, nasty weather, but hot markets. What is heating up the website right now . Allen wastler is here with the hot list. Do you know what the hot thing is . Janet yellen and her market rally she kicked up. Look at my tricky graph. I have three spike alerts related to our coverage of her and what was going on in markets. I love a day like that. Right now were leading with pattys little wrap up of what traders are seeing in her dovish stance today. Its chockfull of trader reaction. If thats what you really are into, check that out. Now, the second big puller today, this has been up and drawn people in, thousands all day long. Robert frank wrote up that weve hit a Record Number<\/a> of people giving up their citizenship in 2013, almost 3,000 people did it. Thats twice as many as the year before. And he gets into everybody says must be the taxes chasing people away. But he gets into some other reasons why maybe Filing Requirements<\/a> and compliance and basic laziness might be contributing to that. Im guessing if robert frank is writing it, its generally the wealthy who are giving up their citizenship. Yes, its not joe six pack. Gold is a anothnother big one. India has a little problem with their current account deficit so they put in all those gold import controls which a lot of people would argue with. They put those controls in. They seem to be doing a little better. Some people are saying, maybe india will get back into the gold market because of that. Of course, we paired that up with another thing from our futures now unit where they had a trader looking at the technicals where he said hes seeing a lot of short covering. Given how gold has done today, im not surprised thats the zeitgeist. Well play both sides and readers will read both stories and i like that. I do that. Fair and balanced. I want to get some Quick Reaction<\/a> from the panel. This does kind of mirror what people certainly on the floor have been talking about, pop in gold. Im surprised we havent seen jim grants comments get picked up. I suspect people want to know what he had to say about biotech. Do you think that was interesting. I thought what he said about biotech was very interesting but also his comments on gold and its natures bitcoin is what he coined the phrase. I think that will get passed around a lot. I think it mainly sold off because it was too much of a crowded trade back in 11 when everybody scrambled in chasing it at the top at 1,800 plus. Now they all chased back out at 1,2 1,200, which is, unfortunately, the way things usually play out. Is he wrong about biotech . I think thats the big debate. I tweeted out what he said. He said specifically biotech is wacky. Basically hes looking at all metrics. If you look at stock last year up 65 , theyve continued that assent th ascent this year. Some people argue, look, its a window. This happens. It goes in cycles. Other people saying too far, too fast. Here is one interesting tidbit, the fda approval rate is at a 16year high. There are some kind of macroforces in the biotech world which could be pushing the drugs out faster and nothing could go wrong with that. Nothing. Well, thats what i was saying is actually weve seen some huge moves depending on how these drugs are given the green light or not. And biotech is definitionally a volatile space. Its literally the frontier of medicine and pharmaceuticals. You will see huge pops and falls based on fda approval, successful drug trials or the lack thereof. I think you would expect to she that but the level of Capital Market<\/a>s activity is interesting. And a lot of the fast money that chases into the stocks, also the people that want the big return, the risk reward is there in the small biotechs. Thats why the doctors are there. Thats why the Research People<\/a> are there. So they can ultimately sell out to a merck or whomever. But you a lot of concern, used to be that the specialists were going into the biotech, the people who really understood it. Now generalists are coming into biotech. I was talking to some of the traders, thats a concern when you have people that dont understand the fundamentals getting in. I got a direct mail being it the other day. Just back to gold real quick. Johns point was interesting about the selloff really dating from september of 2011. Thats an awfully long, slow fizzle, but at the same time i think it bespeaks peoples discomfort with the economic recovery. If you think about the ster stereotype of gold, its the fear trade. People have been in and out of positivity for the past two or three years. Despite the obvious obvious as of today. Natures bitcoin. I love it. All right. By the way, flashy pants, gold medal themed. Michelle carusocabrera up next in sochi checking out these, the colorful attire of norways curling team. Does it help them win those golds . Well be right back. [ tires screech ] chewleys finds itself in a sticky situation today after recalling its new gum. [ male announcer ] stick it to the market before you get stuck. Get the most extensive charting wherever you are with the mobile trader app from td ameritrade. Wherever you are with the mobile trader app sometimes they just drop in. Always obvious. Cme group can help you navigate risks and capture opportunities. We enable you to reach Global Market<\/a>s and drive forward with broader possibilities. Cme group how the world advances. Welcome back. Well, they did not pack light. Norways curling team was going all out at the olympics. Theyre sporting different pants every day of the competition. And Michelle Carusocabrera<\/a> is in sochi on this very tough assignment. Michelle . Kelly, everybody is excited about curling. Unfortunately, u. S. Men lost to norway yesterday. It was a pretty tough session. But, remember, its a round robin. They have a lot more chances. It was just the first round of play. What everybody is really talking about though, norways pants. Did you see them . They brought nine different pairs, one for the practice session, one for each of the matches. They even have a Facebook Page<\/a> dedicated solely to their pants and sometimes they even have links if you would like to buy the same pants they were wearing. Women can even buy skirts in the pattern that they wore last night. If youd like to see more curling, tonight the women are competing as well. Thats an exciting session to watch. Curling on cnbc. Kelly, i know youre enjoying it. Back to you. I love it. Just like the rest of wall street fell in love when we used to show it back during the day. Our coverage begins this evening in a couple minutes. Its on from 5 00 to 8 00 p. M. Eastern this week and all of next week. Theres lots of time still to get into it if you havent yet already. Valentines day is just around the corner. Unfortunately, so is a major winter storm across a large swath of the country. So weve been asking how you plan to weather the storm and how will it impact your Spending Plans<\/a> . Tweet us cnbcclosingbell. Your thoughts up next. Has a ne dozens of tax free zones all across the state. Move here, expand here, or start a new business here and pay no taxes for ten years. Were new york. If theres something that creates more jobs, and grows more businesses. Were open to it. Start a taxfree business at startupny. Com. Were open to it. Could save you fifteen percent or more on car insurance. Mmmhmmm. Everybody knows that. Well, did you know that old macdonald was a really bad speller . Your word is. Cow. Cow. Cow. C. O. W. E. I. E. I. O. [buzzer] dangnabbit. Geico. Fifteen minutes could save you. Well, you know. voseeker of the sublime. Ro. You can separate runway ridiculousness. From fashion that flies off the shelves. And you. Rent from national. Because only national lets you choose any car in the aisle. And go. And only national is ranked highest in car rental Customer Satisfaction<\/a> by j. D. Power. natalie ooooh, i like your style. vo so do we, business pro. So do we. Go national. Go like a pro. Welcome back. Like we said, forget hockey. Curl something a sport that has wall street abuzz this winter olympics. So keep it right here. Well have all the latest action from sochi in moments. We have a treat for you. You need to do the twoscreen thing right now. Curling here on cnbc, fast money freestyle on fast money. Cnbc. Com is melissa lee is coming up next with the gang of traders. How do you like this freestyle thing . You know, were having a blast. You thought 30 minutes straight commercialfree uncensored might be tiring . We ran out of time. It went like this because we have a lot to trade. Today was a big market day obviously, kelly. Did you notice the move in tesla above 200 before retreating. We will give you the ways to trade that. Well talk tesla and then also one beleaguered retailer who might be poised for a buyback, a share buyback. Were going to name names. Lets not reveal going off the rails a little bit here baurs thats what we do. Well played. Well see new a couple minutes. Thanks. We have another big snowstorm set to hit the northeast this week so weve been asking people in the meantime, how has the storm impacted your valentines day plans . Here are some of your thoughts and tweets. The retail trader tweets, leaving massachusetts tomorrow for sun florida. In your face winter storm 40. Somebody should tell him florida will not be a picnic. A cold valentines day keeps the fire burning at home. Sheila, perhaps people coming up with other ways to spend their time on this one . Companies have been talking about the drop in the birth rate. Maybe this snowstorm on valentines day is what the birthing rate needs. Maybe thats why the markets was up. It could be. When theres blackouts the same thing happens sheila is mentioning. Its the sex relief rally . We should probably call this april. I should just get us off this track. Its actually worth looking into it. It would be interesting, the correlation. What should we be watching for tomorrow in these markets . Cisco. Thats one of the big ones. Applied materials. Those two i think as well as whole foods are the ones im watching for. Love their introduction of using square because whole foods is one place where you know people leave all the time because they dont want to wait in that super long checkout line. This is the kind of performance you just scream about. Sarah hues. As we join you this afternoon, a fun fact, sochi, russia, the first city in the subtropical climate to host the olympic winter games. And we welcome you to nbc sports studio in stanford, connecticut known as olympic curling central for the next two week. Yesterday usa today called curling the best winter olympic sport. 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