Transcripts For CNBC Closing Bell 20140613 : vimarsana.com

CNBC Closing Bell June 13, 2014

Accomplished investors in their own right. Plus theres so much to discuss. Tyler, were going to talk to the coopermans and the millers about where they see this market going. The incredible valuations weve been seeing in some Companies Like open table. Speaking of that deal today. Bought by priceline for month than 2. 5 million. It will be interesting to hear about that. And plenty of other occurrences in this space. Of course weve got to talk about oil, about some of these new tech developments and much, much more. Apples not falling far from the tree in those cases. Interesting to hear how they invest alike and how they invest differently. In markets right now lets take you through the three major averages. The dow up 32 points. About. 2 of a percent higher. The nasdaq a relatively small gain of about 12 points at 4309. And the s p 500 moving up today by about five points, a quarter percent at 1935. Joining our closing bell exchange, Kelly Connelly from jhs capital advisers, rich petersen from s p capital iq, ken mahoney from mahoney asset management. John manley from wells fargo funds management. And our own rick santelli. Welcome one and all. Kelly, i want to start with you because you made the case that now is a good time from where you see it to take some profits thats different from the views of a couple of our other panelists which well get to in a moment. Why do you say that . Well, i think that we have to factor in some Behavioral Finance into the equation here. I do expect a pullback. Were going into the summer months which is typically very slow for the market. On top of that weve got the midterm elections coming up. And given the conduct of the government over the last several years, i expect more turmoil and more volatility. And the market doesnt like uncertainty. Were in the fifth year of this bull market. So i think that as far as the Economic News weve heard as much good Economic News as were going to hear for a while so, i think people should take some profits off the table, and i am a big advocate of asset allocation. I like the short to intermediateterm bonds. I think you should keep it low duration. But i think theres some good value there. Ken, a couple of Key Developments in the last 24 hours, and that is by the way, totally aside from this which well get to in one second, you have intel coming out shocking the markets frankly by saying it is seeing some strength in business spending on pcs and then you have pricelines splashing out 2. 6 billion for open table. How do those two things change the dynamics here of markets if at all . Mr. Ken. Oh, im sorry. The markets are going to remain choppy here, no doubt, but still an upward bias. And twoef kind of look at that old adage thats still working for investors, a trend is your friend. And until thats broken we kind of have to stay with it. Look, the biggest story of the year so far is the low volatility. At least coming into this week. We see how quickly that can change. But even with the added volatility look whats happening. We have a lot more m a activity. You have this Monetary Policy around the world supporting local markets. And on top of that you have pretty much a trend thats intact. At this point we just kind of stay the course, realizing we can take some incremental gains here and there, but at this point the bulls case is pretty strong. Even though, by the way, in britain sorry, tyler, i was just going to say theyre not going to be quite as supportive over there. Mark carney just came out and said, sort of sounded the message listen up, theyre going to have to do more to raise rates. Sorry. Never mind. Go ahead, tyler. I was going to turn to john manley and get him to address what kelly said about seasonal issues, the impending midterm elections, the idea that a lot of the good news is already in the prices. And yet you say that the market and some of the fundamentals that were relatively poor a year ago and went to better now can go from better to actually good and thats why you see the future looking a little brighter. I still think its okay. Seasonality. You can always talk about seasonality. But quite honestly i wish it were that simple. Lets face, it with technology the summers not the summer anymore. Im still connected even at the beach. So i dont think things slow down that much. Its the fifth year of the recovery. Last year was the fourth year. Next year might be the sixth year. These things go on longer than people think. The fact is the fed is still accommodative and theyre going to stay so for a while. The earnings numbers are still coming through and the valuations okay. That seems to be okay. We can actually go from okay to good. You can still make money if things are in the good territory. Its not quite as fresh and snappy as a year ago but Everything Else is in place. Rich, what do you think . What do we need to watch . Im going to join the chorus with john and ken, my other colleagues on the panel. Were seeing positive numbers in terms of earnings. Valuations look reasonable. M a activity is very robust. But really the anchor of it all is an accommodative fed. Commentary next week from janet yellen at the fomc meeting. The past two out of three scheduled meetings the weeks of those meetings the s ps been positive. I think Going Forward that were going to see incremental gains in the economy. Hopefully well see improvements in Industrial Production on monday. Gains maybe on tuesday. The philly fed on thursday. All in all its a catalyst for better improvement. But really in the upcoming weeks were going to the twilight zone. Were ending the First Quarter reporting period and not going to see the Second Quarter earnings until sometime in early july. So that time a lot of holding the market capital, which. Could be geopolitics. Rick santelli, jump in here. What would you like to see . What do you expect to see . I like what our guest said, the trend is your friend. And i would just like to add, especially when the fed is part of the trend. And i think that really dovetails nicely into the notion that we will learn on wednesday of course if there was any changes. There shouldnt be. Janet yellens pretty much following the road map that was left by ben bernanke whether for good or for bad. Were going to see more taper. And eventually well move more toward what carney may have hinted at. And i think what mr. Carney talked about from the bank of england on that talk the night before last is super important for a number of reasons because many look at the world as multispeed. You have the u. S. And the uk moving one way. You have stimulus in china, japan, and europe. I dont necessarily look at it that way. I think all stimulus is fungible, and i think that the relationship i would pay most attention to is how the guilt yields running up to the highest levels in april, 2. 75, how it affects the relationship between bunds, 10s, and the u. S. Securities. Those will keep you out of trouble and the markets that still have discovery of sorts which is the Global Fixed Income markets. Only of sorts of course. I wonder, kelly, if what john manleys saying is the case and the summer really isnt as relevant as it used to be then what accounts for the fact that volumes have dried up in equities lately . Well, i think that the global markets, people are putting maybe some money in emerging markets. I think there is some enthusiasm. I think overall the market looks good but i think in the short term we are going to see some volatility because of some of these issues coming up. We saw what it was like in the last election. There was a lot of uncertainty. I still feel that now would be a good time to take some profits and just sit on the sidelines or reposition a little bit. But i do think over the long term the prospects for the market do look very positive. Ken, you mentioned, and i would note that of all the stories that have taken place for the first 5 1 2 months of this year the one that stands out to me has been the pace of m a activity. Do you expect that to continue, number one . And number two, apart from what it may mean in individual sectors, is that a constructive thing for the market more generally . And if so, why . Look, i think its going to continue. Theres still some value out there. Companies are not growing their top line. So they cant grow their top line. What do they do . They try to shrink their expenses. One of the best ways to do that is to merge with one of their competitors. On the second question i think it bodes well. Supply and demand. Youre taking some supply off the market. So i think the m a activity is very strong, and if you look back on markets that have performed very well in years past we had allowed m a activity. So thats a pretty high correlation to what were seeing right now in this market. For the other market too is the activist investor, we havent talked at all about carl icahn this week. Probably wishing him a happy fathers day. But the fact is he made the the Family Dollar store. The activist investor is still going to be a driving force in deal activity Going Forward. We talk so much about overvaluation in the tech space but its some of these consumer names were really seeing the premiums. Bargain youre finding at the mall is not your shirts and suits. Its buying the companies. We heard the announcement today from sycamore partners. Its funny, john, because who would have thought . Consumer discretionary is the poorest performing sector of the year. Were talking about troubles, problems with the u. S. Consumer, top line isnt growing, and yet in the very consumer space and consumer staple space, by the way, theres been so much activity. Staples are very predictable and people pay for that. I dont think thats necessarily wrong. I think its worth noting when it comes to really high Growth Stocks they very seldom blow up forever because the valuations went bad. Its usually the fundamentals going down, and this seems to be purely a valuation correction and those things are very ephemeral in my memory. You know, john, you mentioned or one of my notes indicated you think investors are less scared than they were a year ago. This week would suggest that maybe they have more to be scared about than a week ago. And they could become much more scared but down 5 , not 20 or 30 . One of the keys of bull market correctionsize theyre nasty and brutish and shirt. They happen very quickly, they come out of nowhere. And thats because the sentiment when it turns positive has no deep roots. People are easily uprooted in their positive sentiment back to where they were a year or two ago. All right, folks, thank you very much one and all. We appreciate it. Fathers, have a Great Fathers day weekend. And everybody have a good weekend. Kelly . All right. 50 minutes to go until the close. Looks like stocks are near the session highs with the dow up about 49 points ar a twoday correction here. Intel hitting a high on upgrades. Raised revenue guidance. But will this be a onetime pop . Well talk to a couple pros next bin tells potential to fire up huge gains in your portfolio. Also ahead, open table soaring to new highs on pricelines 2. 6 billion buyout, and thats got some other stocks surging on takeover speculation as well. Seema mody will run through the winners live from the nasdaq. And blackrocks chief investment strategist for fixed income Jeff Rosenberg previews next weeks Federal Reserve meeting. Find out what hes expecting in the wake of this mornings surprise dip in wholesale inflation. Plus well get his reaction to the bank of england governor hinting at a possible rate rise, maybe even later this year. But there are no branches . ses im sorry im just really reluctant to try new things. Really . Whats wrong with trying new things . You feel that in your muscles . Yeah. I do. Drink water. Its a long story. Well, not having branches lets us give you great rates and service. Id like that. Experience a new way to bank where no branches great rates. Ally bank. Your money needs an ally. But were not in the business of spokespenaming names. Kswagen passat is heads above the competition, the fact is, it comes standard with an engine thats been called the benchmark of its class. Really, guys, i thought. It also has more rear legroom than other midsize sedans. And the Volkswagen Passat has a lower starting price than. Much better. 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As a result its shares are trading up almost 10 in todays session. Therapeutics surnging on positive phase one data for its treatment for multiple myeloma. Trading at nearly 15 times its normal volume and its stock is up 66 1 2 . A different stoirm for onkamed. The stock is plummeting on news early stage trials testing on would of its experimental cancer drugs. This is due to concerns about bone damage. And the stock is damaged too, down about 10 1 4 percent. We end with intel gain ground after boosting its Second Quarter revenue guidance because of stronger than expected demand for business pcs. Intels stock is now up 6. 7 at 20. 83. Kelly, back to you. Thank you, mary. Huge move anyone tell leading the dow right now. Do these intel upgrades and the raised guidance mean you should add it to your portfolio . Lets roll it out with chelsea adviser groups tom forte who says its time to buy and tim lesco who says dont act too fast. Tim, let me start with you. Youre skeptical this is really a sustainable report from intel, their forecast of higher sales based on pc sales. Well, thats right, tyler. I think this bump in intel sales were really on the heels of the windows xp support expiration. And we have a hard time wanting to invest in things based on a 10yearold operating system expiring rather than something thats new and really moving forward in mobility. So while this is probably a relief to shareholders that things maybe are not as bad as they thought they were, i have a hard time really seeing this as a longterm earnings driver. Tom, what about you . I think what youre seeing here is better than expected demand at the enterprise level for pcs and to some extent youre seeing a moderation of the decline. If you look at the idc forecast, theyre projecting a 6 decline in pc units this year, which is an improvement from down 10 . So i think its sustainable. We dont formally cover the name but im bullish on intel. Lets go back to you, tim, and talk a little bit more. Basically, what youre saying is the growth in pc purchases by businesses is being driven by the fact that they have to replace some of the existing stock because microsoft isnt going to support xp anymore. You still believe that the real endemic change is toward laptops and more importantly mobile products, the ipads and other tablets . Very correct, tyler. If you look at it, most people are moving to six or seven screens in their life, but its not because theyre moving to a home computer. And the fact this is on the heels of Enterprise Sales really drives home that point. As businesses were forced to move oust their xp machines, as we were in our offices and we saw pc boxes all over the hallways of our buildings, we just dont think that that demand is sustainable through next year. Its a onetime event. If you remember, in the 90s we used to move forward because intel would move pc architecture up so markedly that youd have to buy a new pc because it offered so much more. Now you have pcs, a new chip doesnt really offer that much if you dont like intel youre really buying things based on how mobile they are and how useful they are. And all we talk about all week are the valuations of things like uber, the valuations of all these apps and Technology Companies and none of them really care if they have intel inside. Forgive me for interrupting, tim, but if you dont like intel quicklys there a name you do like in semiconductors . Semiconductors are a hard space because most of them its an aging business. So you can look at things like qualcomm. Theres also arm holdings that makes the architecture of mobile chips. But most of the rest of the Semiconductor Business are mostly in commoditizing businesses. And its very hard when you see a business that looks like its going to have longterm margin zroux to get all that excited about down six pcs instead of down ten. But heres the interesting thing, tom, and im curious what makes your bullish case for them. These are wellknown concerns out there in the market and even this issue about the pc upgrades spurred by windows, and yet look, people have had all day to digest this. The shares are still up 7 . Yeah. I still think that theres a role for intel in the internet of things or in the tablet world. I dont think that just because youre seeing declining sales in pcs means that intels stock is perpetually on its way down. So i think that clearly youre seeing the consumer and to a lesser extent the enterprise transition away from desktops and laptops toward tablets, but i think theres still opportunities for intel in that future environment. Gentlemen, thank you very much. Have a good weekend. We appreciate your being with us. Thanks, guys. Thank you for having me. 40 minutes to go until the close. The dows up 32. And interestingly enough, tyler, because its a priceweighted index that 7 move in intel just really doesnt move the needle that much. Even microsoft trading higher on the back of it. But a company like walmart can offset a lot of that move as its been wei

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