The yield on the ten year in the last week is up about 15 basis points. Thats not even the peak. We were at 267, 268 early on. So were getting a swift market response to all of this strong jobs data today. The question is whether well close above 17,000 here, bill, and right now it looks like weve got a comfortable margin. Lets look across the markets. Dow is up. Session highs, 92 points. Again, only an hour to go until the close here. The nasdaq meanwhile, out performer this week up almost 2 . Its turning in a decent performance adding 23, another half percent. Finally the s p 500, at levels we have not seen for this index. Up almost 10 points. 1984, just 15 points away from 2000. Talk about this important trading day. Monica madea, part of our closing bell exchange. With seventh capital. John manly and ben willis from princeton, Keith Fitzgerald said it would be like this from Money Map Press and our own rick san telly. Cant wait to talk bonds with him in a minute. Is this a green light to go higher or could it be resistance here . What do you think . A green light to go higher and by the end of the year without a doubt. Every professional trader continues to look for some sort of correction. The fact of the matter is the Economic Data continues to print on a positive note, which means your money should be in the stock market, not in the bond market. Its been a very slow bleed, if you will, and the Central Banks function will be managing that deflating that bubble they created in the bond market. Do you agree, monica . Especially as it looks like this stretch of job creation year on year is the strongest since 2006, which is neither encouraging or a sign perhaps the best of times are behind us . The tricky thing about a market, the pendulum swings hard in both directions. Jobs numbers positive, in that were seeing consistency. Five months of 200,000plus jobs. At the same token, creating more parttime jobs than fulltime jobs. We still have 275,000 workers who are forced into working part time, and while the longterm unemployment number is coming down, its coming down for the wrong reasons. Youre finding people are giving up looking versus actually getting absorbed into the market. What do you recommend to clients now . Do you awe dpree with what ben said . Stocks are the pla is to be . We take a longterm approach and with a longterm approach you keep study with your portfolio. Were in a lot of alternatives now. Okay. Its time to think about diversifying, because i think the biggest concern for all investors is whats going to happen when the fed funds rate starts to move up and Interest Rates move up . And thats going to really have a whack to all different types. Asset classes. Keith fitzgerald, youve been among those who said were going to keep going higher yet go that much longer without a correction of some kind of 10 or more. Are we setting ourselves up for something even more painful down the road, because we havent had a correction in over two years . You know, a, thanks for remembering that, and, b, yes. I think we probably are. The pendulum swings violently on these types of massive market moves but bringing money off the sidelines. The fed is telegraphing what it wants to do. Never mind its making up the numbers. Jobs composition doesnt look right and large enough to fall over them or through them. The fact of the matter is well, theyre not making them up, but making them up as we go along. Theyre along for the ride. Strategy as it goes along . Turning into a nation of burger flippers as opposed to career builder. That bothers me. Cracks im concerned about. Longer term, Quality Companies never go out of style. Rebalancing is what you need to do now and stay in for just a while longer. Carlos gutierrez, john manly, became commerce secretary, started driving a cocacola truck. You can start as a fast food worker and work your way up in the countant you . I started at mcdonalds. 2 an hour and loved it. How much was a hamburger then . Less than 2. Tell you that. Could eat all i wanted, as you can tell. Things are great. America is doing what it should do. Expanding. Its international, normal. Rates will only go up if it doesnt slow down the economy. The fed wants to make sure things are going better. The unemployment number, the employment report was perfect, not too hot, not too cold. Absolutely perfect. Rick santelli, here we are within the trading range for the tenyear yield, been in quite a while but into the upper range there. Do you suspect well stape in the range or could we start to finally move higher here . Tell you what, i think the bond message today is very compelling. Believe me it wasnt a bad number today. The guests said this is wrong, thats wrong. Totally correct. All things considered, the improvement has been rather substantial, even with all the warts. Up to close to 267. You see the chart, were at 264. The most important chart is the one that starts in may, because may 12th to may 28th, the only levels you need to Pay Attention to. 266 close from the 12th. If we dont close above that today, on a day where all the impetus, all the nervousness is that you should be selling on strong data in front of holiday week, to me tells me that the treasury market is still bugged by something. Now, if you look at booms versus tens, what its not bugged by, a fresh 15year wide. On a notional basis, our rates are higher, but on a real basis, the reason were not going through, i dont any that the investors that represent the bond market believe janet yellen and company are going to be true to the type of data theyre seeing, and they ought to be, because when you hear macroprudential what that is saying, theyre going to ignore the data and not adjust monetary policy, and think theyre going to pick any of these bubbles with regulation, when 100 years of history dictate theyve never seen anything in the front windshield that they address before bad things happen. Monica, why i found that your comment about alternative assets, interesting here. Are you referring to things like gold, commodities, where we have seen a lot of inflows lately or talking about more Asset Classes like real estate, commercial real estate . That sort of thing . Were beyond the gold im wearing. Were active in real estate and so we focus on very specific strategies and, again, i dont think you can take a broad approach to this. You have to understand the asset class, understand the geography. One point i feel no ones made is, the fed as much as wed like to think theyre in control, theyre not in control. A business professor said the fed has a tricky job of driving a car where every turn is only felt 20 minutes later. I think by the way, the point everybodys making. Theyre not necessarily in control. They affect the psyche of investors. If they dont do the right thing with these better data points, theyre going to send a message of disbelief and pessimism. And thats a dangerous precedent, because when the pendulum swings in the other direction, naturally the hope is going to be that, gee, the government stepped in before. Lets step in again. Thats the wrong message, i think, to reinforce this. We need to concentrate on the fundamentals of investing and getting ahead with the solid underpinnings of the economy. Jpmorgan, changed their idea after the jobs report came out about when they think the fed will actually start to raise Interest Rates. They now think it could happen right around this time next year. Do you agree . And what do you think the markets going to do with all that . I do agree with them. As a matter of fact think it may happen sooner. My economics professors couldnt stand the fact that i dont believe economics is in fact the science. Its an art form. What were watching, janet yellen, the peoples bank of china, mr. Draghi, theyre executing an art form. Created asset bubbles by the stimulation that theyve created over the last six, eight yearened and its their job to try and take that piece of artwork back down. Thats what were facing. Whether you want to look at it through the front windshield or rear view mirror, fact of the matter, we will be beholden. I continue to call it the mattress effect. Money will sit with the people making the rules about the money until we get a clearer picture in the front windshield what theyre looking at and how theyre affect our ability to invest. John manly, against this back drop. Why werent you concerned were in an asset ubl bubble leer . Ill worry about tomorrow tomorrow. Look at the valuation on the market. The markets around 15. 5 times forward earnings. Hardly a bubble. Two weeks ago the people were calling for the end of the world. I mean it was never good enough. Now its too good. The simple fact, we can make money as the economy goes from okay to good. We made a lot when it went from terrible to bad and bad to ak, but okay to good makes money, too, and i dont see those excesses. 15 1 2 times is not are there sectors to move into making a transition from okay to good . I think technology. Look at earnings. In the Technology Sector taking off. Some of the high multiple stocks hit. I think you look at whats going on in the Energy Sectors oooey think were going to see a lot more development in petroleum over the neglect several years. Service companies should do well, oil companies. Rick i know you cannot wait, you think that the fed cant raise rates soon enough right now. Called liftoff, in their vernacular. What do you talk about on the floor there . When do you think theyre going to start raising rates . Well, you know, i know people like to look at fed funds, but when youre beginning a cycle, fed funds dont give you an accurate read. Down here, many think shes going to wait too long. Even though they all agree the markets more important than the fed, at this major turning point, 5 1 2 years after a crisis, i think there is much greater risk that they drag their feet, they should be more nimble. They shouldnt fall in love with an old strategy, because as any trader as a guest knows, when you fall in love with an old strategy in a current market, they take you to the woodshed. Leave it there for now. On that point, everybody can acknowledge. Thank you all and have a great fourth of july weekend. 50 minutes to go here, bill. Looks like its going to be dow 17 070. Were in the most important hour of the trading day. In fact we are. Is the employment picture everything its cracked up to be . Two Top Economists weighing in on that coming up here. Also ahead, happy july 4th from expensive fireworks displays, barbecues, americans spend billions during the independence holiday, well, if its not raining. On that note, check out this view of hurricane arthur from space. The storm could dampen spending up and down the east coast, or at least shift it around. A special report on where its heading, next. But what if you could see more of what you wanted to know . With fidelitys new active trader pro investing platform, the information thats important to you is all in one place, so finding more insight is easier. Its your idea powered by active trader pro. Another way fidelity gives you a more powerful investing experience. Call our specialists today to get up and running. Welcome back. A strong jobs report this morning has meant a strong stock market, and we are above 17,000 on the dow for the first time in history. Looks like well close above that number. The dows up 95 points now. Look at all three major averages. Its an evenly spaced out rally today. Each of the averages there, dow, s p and nasdaq up half a percent. Nobodys standing out or lagging at this point. Interesting heading towards the close. Kelly . Broad based gains, bill, as you say. Courtney reagan is covering it. Kelly, which movers helped get us where we are today. Pet p petsmart. Tarking to management and shareholders an a possible sale of the kwi. Walgreen and rite aid. And lou lou lululemon, and abo taking the yoga gearmaker private. Among other options im told. On the flip sewed, mq mobile, plummeting, will need to expand the scope of its audit. Market cap of 265 million dollars. End with Staffing Company manpower group, kelly services, co cornferry, moving higher as the employment picture brightens. Back to you. Thank you, courtney. Jobs a hot topic now, obviously given the new numbers that came out called a blowout report. But was it . Lets ask an economist with the economist, and a cnbc contributor and president of ceo of lasalle network, a chicagobased staffing and recruiting firm. Welcome to you both. Greg, you know, a lot of people are focusing on a big increase in parttime work offsetting an increase in fulltime work. How concerned should we be . Not very concerned. The last year or two, parttime numbers bounced up and down, not trend. Betser to look at numbers on the employment side of the report showing that total hours worked, they rose around a 4 annual rate in the Second Quarter. Thats the fastest rate of growth in the last four or five years. I think we are not just seeing job growth but seeing people with jobs getting lots of hours to work. Good for income. Good for spending. But, kelly, i would add, negative for productivity growth. In the same time were having hours worked going up so much, weve seen output doing basically nothing. Thats one negative side to this report. Good point. Gdp and jobs may be at odds there. Tom, watching the numbers. The what, youre watching the where. Where are the jobs . You call it uneven. Geographically speaking . Yes. I think we really need to look across the country and eventually we have to get there. Whats going on in chicago, new york, miami, l. A. Is different than going on in des moines, omaha, nashville, tennessee. Weve got to look at this regionally. Also saying, people get upset that parttime jobs are going up, but the fact of the matter is, theres not a direct correlation if there were fewer parttime jobs there would be more fulltime jobs. We have to be thankful for what we have pts stock market is doing great. We need to focus on the skips gap. The question of sustainability is coming up in markets today. The ten Year Interest Rate reacted sharply at first but come off a little. Are the job gains sustainable . It goes to your point of productivity . Yeah. The worst productivity, the faster jobs have to grow to meet the same level of output. Thats one of the factor gauss going on here. Job growth strong but output growth not. That tells us potential growth is weaker. Output gap might be smaller. That might mean the fed has to moor more swiftly or move up the federal funds rate maybe by three months. 6. 085 unrounded. A big downward move again. While that might be for the wrong reasons it doesnt mean the fed shouldnt respond . Absolutely. On unemployment at the level they expected to reach by the end of this year. Also seen inflation moving up a little bit. All of these things together suggest that the fed might need to move up a little bit the data which it begins to tighten. A couple aftcaveats. Wage inflation is weak. One giving the fed pause determining the data. This stuff is volatile. I wouldnt assume the new trend is 285,000 per month. It could fall back easily in the months to come. Tom, do you agree . What about the issue of quality of the jobs, how many parttime workers added to pay rolls this time around . Give us a sense of the quality of this jobs report this morning . Not just the quantity. I think quality is the issue. One of your earlier guests said, he started working at mcdonalds. The fact of the matter, everybody doesnt come into a 60,000, 80,000, or 100,000 a year job. Were in the mindset of the recession. The jobs are there. Seeing a lot of people starting out at 3,00,000, a good career path to make 40,000 or more a year. I disagree from the statement kelly made. If unemployment drops its a good reason. The fact of the matter, trying to make sure we have longterm employment. The argument, if you shrink the work force, unemployment might look better but you want the most people working in this country that you possibly can have. Otherwise, longterm growth, long toeterm productivity look much weaker. We need to look at that. Go ahead. One positive thing, if you could call it that. The Participation Rate actually did not go down in june from may. Stable at around 62. 8 . Right. Thats a low level and theyll be expected to drop as far as it has. Pulling up the camera a bit. Weve had zero labor force grow in the last year. To your point, kelly, notwithstanding, we should be grateful more are going back to work. Lack of growth and underlying supply of workers. Greg, though, are we being too impatient about this recovery . Lets face it, were coming of you a of a huge recession, a horrible financial debacle from 08 and 09. Is this recovery going to be differ as a result comparing it to past rovies out of recessions here . Well, the jury is already in on that one, bill, and it has been slower and worse. I dont think were being impatient. We have each year, the last four, five years expected a pickup in growth in the 3 level that never happened. I feel its about time we started to get a run of upside surprises like this. I would add the following caution, that im not about to start, like, popping the champaign corks based on these last two or three months numbers. Given on weeks of factory output numbers, the retail fail side, i am not sure we can sustain job growth at the current level. Tom, last word . Weve got to be a little more optimistic. Unemployments gone from 10 to a little over 6 and not necessarily due to the administration at all but the fact of the matter, Companies Making more profits and hire whoing people and people out of work a long time, they need to realize and get their skills up to par or accept less money, but the economy is doing better. Thank you for that perspective this afternoon. Have a great weekend. Thanks for having me. About 40 minutes to go here. Stocks near the session highs. Dows up almost 100 points. About 9 now. 1765s level and the s p we dont mean to neglect, also at a Historic Place here. 1984, within 15 points of 2000. And the yield on the ten year sharply higher as a result as well. Just ahead, the latest on what is now hurricane arthur, and its storm track. We find out if you should cancel the barbecue plans for tomorrow and get tickets to a movie or a museum instead. And later, ill speak with the executive producer of one of the big evidence fireworks shows in the country. The macys fireworks scheduled to take place over, nos east river, well, if arthur cooperates. Well be right book. Welcome back. Where we stand with 35 minutes left to go on the shortedened trading session. Dow jones industrial adding 94 points. All indexes up half a percent on what has ban strong week for them, bill. Yep. Meantime, hurricane a