Transcripts For CNBC Closing Bell 20141030 : vimarsana.com

CNBC Closing Bell October 30, 2014

Barely staying positive. Gives you a sense of how much people are trying to figure out whats driving these gains here and just as brian and man dimensioned, some questions again about the chip sector. For weeks this one, whether microchip supports moving to sector, philly stocks down 10 points now, comments about inventories, speaks to the level of nervousness abound. Russell 2000 a lag guard today as well. See how quick our guys are in the booth. Transportation rally, another point of view, down 1 06 points at this hour. I like rich peterson calling the october surprise, not the selloff but 9 snapback off the lows but twoyear point, watch the transport the tell for the first part of the rally. Even when oil is lower, moving in inverse relationship. Into today. Lets talk about it all in our closing bell exchange, jim lowell from Adviser Investments with us, eric from russell investment, melt from came write investment management, Heather Hughes from sun america funds and our up rick santelli. Welcome to everybody here today. Heather hughes, we were talking earlier with art karen, these four trading days usually pretty strong for the market. Had very strong days here. Do you like this market or are you skeptical of these gapes here . I love the gains and the correction was short lived thus far. If you take a look at earnings, 9 1 2 profit margins, over 80 beat earnings expectation and we have to look at that revenue growth. Over 5 of companies have beat on revenue growth. That is also a positive sign. However, looking at the gdp data today, when you dig a little deeper two sides of this coin. We are lacking still on capital expenditures. The investment side of gdp is down 2. 7 and thats the durable consumption. That still may be a showdown showing weaker. Also the consumer two sides of this coin right now. Now im looking at the vix, a little bit below the 15 level today, the question is this, having gotten through the hurdle of the fed yesterday, now that markets, stocks are generally rallying, does that mean that we go back to the old paradigm, the vix is going to go back down into the Single Digits or mean this time around, still see higher volatility and some sort of new trading patterns . Look, normal stock market returns are extreme. We expect the volatility to be there and come in bunches. Most of the volatility you find clusters after markets have already been declining. The vast majority of the best and worst days occur when the markets down, simply because the volatility is higher. That having been said, we think most of the opportunities right now, not in the u. S. Where volatility is lower but this a lot of the countries around the world, global stock markets. Really . This is interesting. Because looking at the strength of the u. S. Dollar, theres been some spec racing this might be the worst time for people to be looking overseas. U. S. Is much more expensive on a valuation basis. Longterm pes are 26. If you take a bassett of the 20 of the cheapest countries around the world, that basket has a pe ratio of around 9. Much, much better opportunity abroad, russia, brazil, out of your honor jim lowell, tell me you bought visa yesterday. Visa well represented in the megacap funds. We think selling on fear, as long as the fundamentals for slow growth, not no growth hold, will create buying opportunities, clearly given another good lesson in just that this month. One of the things we like to see is represent a center disappointing and visa beating much the reason being that consumers in represent a center tend to leave that business and start to bitheir own furniture, their own tvs when the economy takes a turn for the better and tend to use visa and American Express to do that buying. We think the u. S. Consumer renames reasonably good shape. As long as thats true, we think the u. S. Economy could remain the driver to of a slow growth, not no growth trajectory. At least here, if not globally down the road. Area related to that, what do you think we learned from the gdp report, the economy grew in q 3 . Ed good news is the government is no longer a significant head wind for the economy. Private economy allowed to grow government helping a little bit, continues to support our thesis that youre going to see solid Economic Growth out of the u. S. , that is going to drive earnings and push stocks higher. Rick santelli go ahead, heather . Solid growth and gdp on the surface good. Most of the gdp came from an increase in government spending, i dont know if that will continue going into the Fourth Quarter and year end. [ overlapping speakers ] all that data came out ahead of the Holiday Spending period. I expect the consumer to trail in the Third Quarter, toward the tail end of it, but to pick up big time as we head into the Holiday Spending season. The savings rate increased to 5. 5 in terms of the consumer for the quarter and those savings could help we could see an uptick in the consumer going into the Holiday Season from the uptick in savings. Because, jim, the point about visa is that it would be hard to see that company doing well, up 10 on day people were worried about the health of consumer spending. No question about it the reality is the consumer, as heather just noted, in reasonably good shape, cash in their covers in terms of savings. Tomorrow, income savings sentiment as well as spending data coming down the pike. So we will see what it has to say, but again thats backward, not forwardlooking. Expect the Holiday Season to be reasonably good. Rick san telly, bring you in here, on a day that Alan Greenspan told our becky quick this morning he would buy gold given the end of quantitative easing here and of course, gold plunged, now below 100 an ounce. Blame the strong dollar . Do you blame Alan Greenspan, too . You know, listen, i get the relationship between dollar denominated commodities and the dollar strength. But i think that a lot of the Commodity Movement is well beyond any type of dollar influence. You know, energy, down here, we keep it simple. Guys down here think the reason energys down is because all these conflicts in areas that have a lot of oil, that that sector has just been over long for too long and it was a flush and i wouldnt disagree with that. You know, we had three relatively spotty auctions this week. Maybe its just that you had a fed meeting, maybe a week away from an employment report, i think that youre going to see that the tectonic shifts that we had around the middle of the month, they are gonna stabilize and we are gonna play the game again. One guy said, hey, slow economy is good for his stock position and i think youre going to see a lot more of that before we have the big vol timity moves. Az for god, i will give you one date, november 30th, referendum in switzerland, i think Alan Greenspan would be helped if the swiss decided they wanted their National Bank to hold more god. But rick, can we give more credit to the American Energy establishment and the shale gas formation, fracking, in terms of oil being leader on not just due to a global slow down in demand . Could it be a bit of both . Oh, yeah, no, these the second story that they are now finally pricing in, that usa on the oil field and the gas field was here to stay. Not only that the technology is going to allow the price structure to cement in place, find ways to do what they do especially tracking, at lower price levels, so, now alls we need is a Better Congress to allow more exportation and get those liquid natural gas facilities up and running. Let me bring this back to some of the investments here. Credit union on higher oil price, a lot of wealthier clients, typically put into structured notes, for example, linked to the price of oil. In other words, might there be more damage done to the general public invested in some of these prod doubles from the declines here . Yeah. Absolutely. We love commodities in general. We think it makes much more sense from a tactical standpoint. Trend falling approach, so, a managed futures type of product. You can do that through an etf. You can do it through all sorts of products that are lowcost index based. The last thing you want is a high cost fee mutual fund or hedge fund. Commodities in general we love. Why do you love commodities . Really surprised to hear that you dont expect a strong dollar to continue . No, no let me we love a strategic allocation to commodities but with a tactical overlay, right . So you want to have a trend following approach, have you in no commodities right now, to be clear. You love commodities, except when you hate them as an asset class a high percent allocation when they are doing well, which right now, they are not. Eric what is your single best idea right now . I think i would go jump guest earlier areal . Talked about europe. You have got a lot of stimulus hitting, Economic News isnt as bad as a lot of people feared, valuations are more attractive in many parts of europe. I think its a good story. I wouldnt bet the house on it but i think marginal, i would overweight europe. Well. Okay. Buy a house there if the euro goes much lower. Thanks, everybody. Thanks, folks. See you later. 15 ins to ingo. Dow up 185. As bill mentioned, 150 points of that is one single name and its visa. Not a bad one if you want to still read some general strength into this market. We should know, the nasdaq only higher by three points now. Pay attention to the earning reports after the bell. Visa out last night. Another round of afterthebell earnings tonight. Starbucks, gopro, linkedin, groupon, all heading todays lineup. We will preview those numbers, things to watch for coming up here on closing bell. Also ahead, reaction to apple ceo tim cook declaring that he is proud to be gay. Two powerful members of the cnbc family who are also openly gay give their reaction. Personal guru personal finance guru, i should say, suze orman will be here, along with massachusetts congressman, barney frank. Stay with us. Theres confidence. 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And torlaksons plan calls for more parental involvement. Spending decisions about our education dollars should be made by parents and teachers, not by politicians. Tell Tom Torlakson to keep fighting for a plan that invests in our public schools. Boy, a rally today and an unusual one for the industrial average, up 200 points now, mainly because of visa, contributing about 150 of those points. Now, you know, the dow industrials is a pointweighted average, meaning the stocks that have the higher dollar values like visa, a 200 stock, will have the greater influence on the dow. Thats why a single stock like visa can have such a huge impact on the dow industrial average today, because it is up as much as it s amazing that the dow and s p track each other, given that incredible proposition difference. Bob pisani is keeping an eye on whats behind this rally, bob, and some of the Trading Operations we saw earlier. The dow is up 1. 2 , the s p only 4, the russell is flat. Dow not reflected what is going on in the market. Good for visa. Numbers were spectacular. Bills right, 22 times roughly 7, do the math, almost 160 points on the dow. Look whats leading the market, u sits in the that doesnt impress me, i want a different sector to read the market. Looks like fierce of lower Interest Rates, 1. 9 in utilities, two critical groups getting hit, tech stocks a oil stocks, everybody keeps wondering about intel, i have been saying all morning that the semiconductors have had a terrible time. Interso came out and talked about an inventory correction in the Computing Market earlier on, down 13 mrs. And intel down in simple think, the only thing anybody tells me all throughout the morning and i think thats right. Microchip tech, remember, they blew up earlier, several weeks ago, they are going to be reporting tonight. Get a little more information on whats going on, see that big drop in them. Big oil getting killed again. Oil down, good the overall market suspect collapsing, the Energy Stocks hit, particularly some of the big name, national oil had their earnings out, neighbors is out. So the Energy Stocks are weak here today. Whats really helping the market . Like visa, those financial name, so, we got the xl, the big bangs, generally upside, the Largest Group in the s p 500, what matters. Finally, guys, a brief outage in the processor that consolidates the quotes and trades at the new york stock exchange, the securities information processor, the sif. What happened is the conversationer the discussions between nasdaq and bats and the nyse got interrupted, couldnt send their quotes back and forth to each other, that has now been resolved, still dont have a reason why it exactly happened but i am told all systems are back to normal. Guys, back to you. Bob, thank you very much. Also watching commodities here having a big day but the other direction largelism our jackie deangeles covering the action at the nymex. An exciting day in the pits, all about the stronger dollar, dollar index 86 handle, traders are telling me these commodity does not stand a chance right now. As a matter of fact, oil was lower, as bob mentioned, the prices, the settlement prices for oil and nat gas were delayed, traders saying it possibly was a technical glitch. We are waiting to get a statement on that the settle. Prices are out now. Crude down more than 1, 1. 80, brent closed under 87 as well. The traders telling me today, this was all about the technicals, did see a bit of a bounce yesterday, some selling here, especially on that dollar strain. Switching gears to talk about gold prices, gold got mum melled, closing under that key technical level, 1200 actual at the time settle. Down 26. Traders saying this was all the dollar, by all accounts, after the fed statement yesterday, do expect the gold prices to go lower from here. Watch for that back to you. Thank you, jackie. That weakness in gold be one reason why the biggest gold producer missed on he weres today . Joining us in a cnbc exclusive, welcome back the president and ceo of gold corps. Happy to be back. Thanks. Price of gold, how much of that contributed to your quarter, the fact that it has come off those alltime highs of a couple years ago . Z he be blooirksds y the business is certainly sound and we continue to make good cash earnings cash flow at these gold prices. A difficult period in your business. In the 60s, now down 12 to under 19. Allin costs, 1,066, a little bit off from the price today. How much does gold have to hold in here if not rebound for this to be viable long term . Well, i can answer that in two ways. Certainly for gold corps, we have guided and we reguided today that we expect our allin cash costs to come in for the year at the low end of our range, around 950 an ounceful through the first three quarter, the averages 918. This was a very be a ber rant quarter and we expect a very strong Fourth Quarter and comfortable with that guidance. As we look forward, we just started two new miles, both low cost, expect those costs to go down and so the margins to increase at a flat gold price. But your point is well taken. For the larger industry, its a challenge at these prices. And i think thats why you will see supply coming off and youll see mine supply start to impact the gold price. I was just gonna ask you, if this trend tops, if the dollar continues to strengthen, presumably pushing the price even closer to your production level price, what do you do . You just cut back on production, right . Exactly. You look in your mines that, theres a lot of variability knit a mine plan and we can focus on the higher grade material that makes good money and stop making ounces that are trading ounces per dollars. I think straight has been doing a good job of that i have to say that i dont think youre going to see gold price trade much lower than this. I would go back and look at the last three or four times that its dip bead low 1200. We have seen tremendous physical demand from asia, particularly china and i think we will see it again. I would be interested to see what happens in the next week. I think you will see it bounce back up. Always good to see u thank you for joining us today. Thanks for having me. Thank you so much for being here. Heading toward the close, we got about 40 minutes left in the trading session here. Rally day. The dow up 197 points. Yes. Much of that because of visa. By the wake the second biggest contributor to the dow gain today . Now we know that visa has contributed 150 points to that rally. Johnson and johnson is number two its contributed five points. Thats how distorted this rally has been, at least for the industrial average today. Yes. Tim cook, meanwhile, officially coming out. Our suze orman, personal finance guru and outspoken figure on gay rights give us her reaction to this announcement next. Afterthebell earnings, starbucks, gopro, linked in, all on deck, certain to move on their news. Those for you coming up in a moment. Stay tuned. v you are a busine. Maestro of project management. Baron of the buildout. You need a permit. To be this awesome. And you. Rent from national. Because only national lets you choose any car in the aisle. And go. You can even take a fullsize or above, and still pay the midsize pr

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