And likely to go even lower now that opec has decided to keep production at current levels. And thats sent prices down again today. Walmart is basically a lot of the reason why we are still under the range of 50 to 60 points. The dow transportation index,ic look at broadly. As long as you are not trying to move crude oil. A lot to talk about. Hope you can join us here for the next couple of hours as we gauge this important day for the retail world. And we also follow the markets. We stand to close higher today. For the dow and s p right now it will be record highs for the year. Its also been a very good november by the way for these markets. It is amazing to think just at the speed and breadth of the rallying since october 15th. We have to look at the impact oil is having. European yields again hitting new lows overnight. And lets talk to some of these savvy shoppers. Did you get these at the door busters this morning . What time did you get to the mall. 7 00. Very early this morning. Yeah. Do you get up that early happily to get to school . No. Its much better to go shopping. What did you buy . Tons of clothes and everything. Sox. Are these Christmas Gifts or for you. For me. Oh see, okay. Right . And what did you get in a variety of things did you get good bargains . Yes. 50 off. T like 20 off. For 50 dollar sweatshirt i got 12. Thats the deflation were talking about. And when you drove here werent you glad you paid less for gasoline when you drove here today . Yes. The driving age is very low in connecticut. What about you sir. Bostonian shoes for 65 off at macys and all the way up from north carolina. All the way from inconorth carolina to buy a pair of shoes. Amtrack. There you go. Reminding everyone this is the shortened trading day. So we are now heading in if you see kelly and me that is your signal of the last housh hour of trading. Back at the New York Stock Exchange with Mary Thompson holding down the fort there. What can you tell us. Britain may have cheerleaders and you may have shoppers but i have kids here today. Its kids day here. Despite the Falling Oil Prices a record day for the dow. S p recently turning lower and losing a little ground. But of course the big story has been the pull back in oil prices in the wake of that opec decision. Impacting yield as well. In turn giving lift to rate sensitive stocks. Were seeing gains in utilities, also consumer staples. Telecoms a telecoms and reits also reacting favorable. Online space coming out, and Department Store retailers looking strong as we head into close today. Energy of course we have to mention it. A bear market for the s p Energy Sector, which year to date is down just about 6. 8 but 20 plus of its year highs. Lastly the beneficiary, a lot of transport stocks. Airlines, also the delivery stocks and cruise lines. The dow up 52 and the s p a little weaker than that on the plus side. Back to you. Amazing, Mary Thompson, say hi to everybody for us. 8 and a half percent rally on jet blue . Stunning. One goes that much higher and the other that much lower. That it is story today. Oils continued plunge. What a day. Right. Crude Oil Prices Continue to be under pressure. Down about 6 . The last time we saw crude oil fall by 6 in a day was back on september 22nd, 2011. Were looking at 20 trading days following september 2 2nd 2011. Wti, west texas intermediate crude did manage to rebound around 6 . With regards to how certain sectors fared we looked at Broader Markets that tracked those factors. They gained. A nice rebound during that time at least for energy remitted stocks. Other sectors etfs that performed well for the financials. And the industrial sector xli up about 10 . With regards to historical simulation it is impossible to replicate exactly what happened at any given time in the past but at least for right now for some traders for a shorter term trade may be looking for a possible bounce in some of those stocks. Back to you. Thanks. Well be checking back with you over the next couple hours here Closing Bell Exchange in the in the meantime. Michael far with us. Rick santelli is in chicago. And look who we found at the Stanford Town Center mall in stamford connecticut. Steve leaishman. And look how he dresses during his shopping. I want to add a lit class. And how about the price of oil. Its a big deal. For consumers and political. But america has become much more of an oil producer than in the past. So there is going to be some negative effect. What ive heard is a very technologically driven oil boom so there are fewer workers in the oil fields. Put a single well in, you go horizontally so not as much is there. But you are getting closer, i think blowing out peoples bottom price target here. You thought maybe 80 was the bottom. Now your towards 70 and talking about a 60 handle on west texas crude. That is going to change the calculus. Its going stop some future investment but not much of whats in the ground already. Can you talk about the risks of people owning this high yield credit. Do you discuss any spillover . About five, six weeks ago we had the big downdraft in stocks, everybody teamed up the reason being dropping Energy Prices and certainly some companies are going to make less but new School Companies are going to make more. Similar type of logic should apply. There may be deals and loans and securities that wont fair well with dropping prices. A lot of structured finance based on commodity, energy in particular that may not fair well but in the big picture i think it is a renaissance. And with regard to you stole my line. You know, you are at a mall. Black friday is typified by falling prices and i think nothing else shows the glaring tight boundary of central bankers just assuming that any time prices go down it is bad. They are wrong. And history will prove them wrong. And it cease so true. Look at the smiling faces. In europe, take the analogy. Europe need to mark things down because people have less jobs, less disposable income. It isnt something to fight. It is something that nobody can stop. Michael far you have been a bull on this market anyway. Does this just reassure you that you are on the right side of trade on this or what do you make of this . It scares the held out of me actually. Ive been riding the bull for the few years now. Weve always fully invested but ive been trying to been a little more cautious in here. Markets are making new highs and in 2008 and 2009 you talked to a lot of investors who had no interest in buying stocks. Now they all want to go in. Were going up to 18,000 on the dow and people are saying okay i need some of those stocks. That is a sign. So i think caution is very much warranted but you dont fight the fed and you dont fight the take tape. The fed is being accommodative and the tape is moving higher. Im still in the party. The fact that this space is now basically in a bear market is the Broader Market going to follow suit . Or does this give further fuel to consumer and transport industries . This is a disruption in the markets for energy but on the other hand you have a wonderful tax relief for the average investor out there and the average consumer out there. You can see it in the malls. You can see it in the optimism. You can see it in the airlines stocks. You can see it across the board. So it is disruptive. But it is one sectors loss is anothers gain. I think the issue really becomes how far we can go before we get some kind of pullback in here. But in the short run this is A Santa Claus rally. Im a believer in santa claus and i believe in this radlly. As gleeful we are about the decline of gasoline prices, what does this do to the fed and Inflation Expectations that have yet to hit their targets at that point. I expect them to be consistent in that regard. They were looking through higher Energy Prices. When Energy Prices fall they are going look through and continue to look at the core. The export and energy numbers. What they are looking for is a general move in prices. A single price decline is not really going to hurt them. And back to what rick said. Yes lower prices for energy are good. But that is a single block. When you talk about the generalized deflationary environment guess what else falls . Your wages and that is what fed is trying to avoid and that is what people think of the negatives of the deflation. Thats happening to people out there is that their real income is rising. Their costs are going down. Dollars going further. Right. Dollars are going further. That is well and good. If you were to get into a generalized deflationary environment. Prices fall, wages fall, Living Standards fall. And thats not what we want for the holidays. Dont spoil it. Just saying. What does it mean they are not spending it. The consumer doesnt seem to be spending the extra money they are saving. The savings rate is hanging tight and looks like it might creep higher so they are not fuelling the economy anymore. Is that a concern . You can lead a shopper to the mall but you cant make theme spend michael. That is the old edadage. And here is the deal. The deal is people are going to set their savings rate at a place they are comfortable and nobody in government or business can change that. The only thing i can tell you is dont say a consumer wont spend till you tell me the price they wont spend at. If they are going to lower the prices and lower the prices they will part that consumer with their dollar. They have 2 Million People more with jobs today. As the real opportunity here. Yeah. We sense that around here too patricia. Thanks for joining us. The far family, michaels 106yearold grandmother left us yesterday on thanksgiving. Our sympathies to you. She was a dear lady. My gram thndmother nana. Thank you. And 45 minutes to go. Energy is the big thing weighing on the index. The s p now slightly negative. Nasdaq still up 16. Much more ahead. Our special black friday edition of closing bell coming your way. Were following the oil story throughout. And when we come back it is all about the shopper. Mastercard has Real Time Data on sales so far. Also will december bring us A Santa Claus rally with gas prices falling. Why not. They look happy. Santa looks happy here. Zapped it, right to our house. And thats how they got it here. So, santa has a transporter . For the big stuff. And its a teleporter. Cool. The magic of the season is here, at the lexus december to remember sales event. This is the pursuit of perfection. 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Get medical help right away if you have symptoms of a heart attack or stroke. Decrease alcohol use while taking chantix. Use caution when driving or operating machinery. Common side effects include nausea, trouble sleeping and unusual dreams. Im a nonsmoker, that feels amazing. Ask your doctor if chantix is right for you. Sarah quinlan joins us now. We heard early on this would be a Good Shopping year compared to last year especially. Are you seeing that so far. Absolutely. Our forecast is 5. 5 year end year increase for the holiday seas season. Thats amazing because. Is the drop in oil making all the difference here . How much relief at the gas pump is translating into to holiday sales boost. It is and has been for the last month and a half. As prices have come down. Now they are 11. 3 below last years prices. That is an immediate gift. But the consumer is spending differently. They are spending experienci experiencially. Last year we had a tough winter. And that may have kept people out of malls. Do we have more shopping day this is year or fewer . Are we actually seeing more buying going on . Or are we looking at differences compared to last year when there were a lot of speed bump, if you will for that shopping season last year. Great question. Actually we are buying more. And that is the most exciting thing. We see this trend across the board. And this is the advancement of mobile and ecommerce in addition to bricks and mortar. And while ecommerce is only 6. 3 of total retail it is increasing on a double digit number and we continue to see that. And that will benefit especially with poor weather in the midwest and northeast again. You also mentioned i think in the preliminary notes you are seeing divergence between spending at large versus small establishment. What can you tell us in terms of level of detail people are spending . Very exciting. In our spending pulse weve seen spending 3 to 5 ahead of the total retail sales number. We know the consumer is preferring the boutique spending and this will carry through into the holiday. In addition when we look at numbers going through yesterday and the like we are seeing this movement into apparent because the weather got cold. And into Department Stores as well. So there is i think going to be this mixture of both. But it is because the consumer is working and they are actually spending. And they are not saving. I disagree with the previous comment that was being discussed. They are actually spending the money they have and were looking forward to them continuing to do so all the way through Christmas Day and beyond into the end of the year. Break it down for us online versus brick and mortar. Last year we saw big inroads buying online. In part maybe because of the weather. What are we seeing so far this year. This year again double digits. Last years was 25. 3 year on year increase from the year before. I doubt it will be that big. Because remember the base gets bigger all the time but that said i fully expect double digit increases there especially with apple pay and other mobile payments being allowed. This is the way and our master pass online is the way people want to shop. Its all about the consumer driving when and how they want to shop at the time they wish. Shop responsiblresponsibly. Thank you for being here and i love her point at the boutiques as well. You like to see that some of the smaller establishments get the benefit here. That is where the jobs are created. Heading towards the close. As the shortened trading by a dawes because of the holiday. The dow up, the s p down two points the nasdaq up 16. Mastercard is already seeing it. Are lower gas prices giving consumers a boost . And if you are hoping for A Santa Claus rally to keep spirits high to the end of the year, hey lets ask santa himself. I know if A Santa Claus rally will be coming down. You will too next on closing bell. Welcome back. Were still at the mall here on black friday. Domonic chu is tracking the movers in the stock market on this holiday shortened session. An all time high for the dow and the transports. What else . So many things happening in the markets. But there is the pain first. Bad news first. Of course it is the Energy Sector. Well hit that again. The worst performing group in the s p 500 by for r far. A as a whole down 6 yesterday alone. Exploration Production Companies taking a hit. Newfield, qep among those names. And the large companies. Meanwhile lower prices may translate to higher profits for transport companies. Airlines all soaring in the days trade. And since it is black friday and you are at a mall, one of my favorites by the way. Lets check Consumer Discretionary stocks also benefitting as shoppers get a break on fuel. Bigger ticket items getting a boost there. And i used to get my haircut at that barbershop maybe 50 or a 100 feet from you right now. I wish you were here dom. If you leave now you can make it. Im gonna try. As long as traffic is not too bad. See you later. All three major averages on track for a sixth straight week of gains. Are we expected to keep up this so called santa claus rally as we head towards the end of the year . Robert luna ceo and cio of the. And jeff. Is this rally historically for real and does t like loik it is going to happen this year. This is not the santa claus rally. That is the a last five days of the year and first two of the new year. Watch out for early december. Usually a little weakness with tax off selling. You are a little skeptical. You think any gains are going to be hard won now. I think were breatpretty go through the middle of next year. Very strong up about 25 and 34 of the nasdaq on average. I think were going to get all of that. But after that i think it will be harder for the gains to continue. Robert luna. Part of the reason why i find this whole question interesting is that if there is such a thing as the santa claus rally it should carved out of market. From your perspective should we expect a rally this time around. I think so. And whats interesting is im out here in Southern California and the weather is even unseasonably warm. And doesnt feel like christmas but i passed about two or three Christmas Tree lots today and they were packed. And the reason is really if they are going to sit around and wait for 40 degrees it is probably not going to happen. And december is too late. So you are out there. And the same with the stock market. Lower rates right now. Companies are very profit able at this point in time. So