Special coverage and well have full Team Coverage over the next two hours here, bill, to talk about a lot of the market expectations. Weve seen a lot of numbers to the high side of course. Then we saw that disappointing adp jobs report today. So a lot of back and forth. Strong jobless claims. So many cross currents to work through. Of course, the story weve been following for the last couple of hours, deal or no deal . Depends on who you ask right now. Word that iran and the five world powers in those negotiations led by the u. S. In switzerland have reached an understanding that will get us to a deal by june 30th. Oil is lower on the news. Well figure out what the announcement really means. Plus well hear what president obama had to say about this development coming up a little bit here. Were also starting to hear from israel right now as well. Heres where markets stand. Well start with stocks then should talk about oil obviously. The dow is up 59 points today. A similar gain across the dow and the broad s p 500 up about a third of a percent. The s p adding sevening points. The nasdaq is struggling to stay positive today. 48. 84 is its level at the moment. Lets get to our closing bell exchange. Danny hughes from Divine Capital is with us today. Larry mcdonald from sockgen. Mark from russell investments. Jim lowell from advisers investment. Rick san telltelli joins us as well. Oils if we believe the wisdom that a deal with iran pushes the price lower since were going to bring more oil on to the market from iran, is that good or bad for the u. S. Equity market do you think . I think its a net positive. Theres a region in this country, the oil belt will suffer a bit more. Overall for a consumerdriven economy to be able to sustain these kinds of lower prices i think will provide the impetus for consumers to spend more. Their income is rising their savings is rising. We know from this weeks spending report it was a little bit disappointing. Thats like compressing a spring. Consumers are impatient. As long as purchasing power thanks to low inflation remains good spending power remains elevated due to lower oil prices, i think its a boone. Danni, where do you think oil is heading and how significant is it that the trade deficit due to the drop were seeing is at its lowest since 2009 . Its interesting to see, kelly. Oil has a little way to go. The consumer is the beneficiary of the market. Jobs growth. Jobless claims are down. Interest rates are still staying low. Thats about it. Pretty much every other metric that you see, you know, retail clocking in three straight months of downward declines Manufacturing Index down five months. Its a little bit of a conundrum for u. S. Business. If youre a consumer youre in great shape. If youre an investor, not so great. If youre both youre basically bipolar right now. The other story were watching and well know more tomorrow, mark of course the jobs report. Now, the jobless claims this morning came in lower than expected. Adps jobs report was lower than expected the day before which was not good. Expectations for tomorrows report have been coming down. Where do you stand right now . What are you expecting to happen . Our numbers are around 220,000 for tomorrow. A little bit lower. 230 to 240 on average for the year. Were a little bit lower tomorrow. I think the focus may not be necessarily on the number though. As long as its around 200,000, thats what people are going to expect. Its about the wage information that i think is embedded in the report. Thats what people are going to look at. We know wages are moving up on the lower end. Walmart took care of that. Many followed. Mcdonalds being the recent one. Any news about wages, thats what i think is going to be what people are going to read in on as far as when the fed will move. I think, again, the jobs might be the secondary news tomorrow in the report to the wage information. Larry, what do you make im still thinking about the big miss yesterday morning on the pmi number. The manufacturing gauge. You know, that declines and a lot of folks look to that as a leading inging indicator for the economy and stock market. What do you think . True, kelly. A hot number tomorrow in the jobs number with the lower oil sets up for some really interesting Systemic Risk issues. If you look at currency, Interest Rate and Oil Volatility the spread between those three and equity volatility is extremely wide. You have elevated volatility in currency rates and oil and lower vom till volatility in equities. That smells like trouble to me. The move down in oil over the last six months three months in particular, lower moves in oil have interrupted u. S. Equity realities. By the way, larry, if memory serves i saw a headline this week that says sockgen believes the fed will raise rates twice this year. Heres a loaded question. Do you agree with your employer . Bill i love you. I will say, yes, i agree. In a perfect world. But i would say if you look at just the u. S. Economy, we got a chance, very good chance for two hikes. But if you look at the systemic issues that are tied to oil and the dollar that could knock the fed off the train. Rickster what do you think about oil and this deal with iran . Reporter you know i think it you always follow the money. I dont want to weigh in on three minutes until midnight on the doomsday clock. When you look at all the countries that have to go along with this, theyre dying to do trade with iran. Thats my take on it. I thought oil would be down more considering how many tankers and bathtubs are filled with iranian Oil Everybody seems to want to put onto the marketplace. I want to address one thing. You brought up a great point about todays trade balance which was the smallest deficit since the Fourth Quarter of 2009. Three things. First of all, whether you like it or not, that will raise firstquarter gdp couple of tenths. The second thing is you would think a strong dollar would make exports weak, but imports are three times weaker. Even expetroleum than exports. If the fed is truly data dependent, forget our biases about what they should or shouldnt do i think that alone keeps them from any move in 2015. Interesting point rick. Youre saying the trade deficit narrowing is more bad news than good news for u. S. Demand here . Yes, absolutely. Eximports expetroleum for down. Exprts down 1. 6. Dani hughes where are you going to make money in the Second Quarter . Were being pretty cautious. Look at equity revisions down for earnings this coming quarter. Its been a huge slope downward. Thats a big concern. That has to do with everything with the dollar with oil, impacting the u. S. Economy. So where do you look . And i know i sound like a broken record, but i love dividend paying stocks. I think that you know, thats the place to stay when youre not sure whats going to happen you have to have that longterm view and youre getting paid to wait. Mark, are you guys also overweight dividend stocks . How might a fed height yeah, we have been in the past. Were a little many rore moving away from defense. Consumer staples have a good part of that space. Theyve done so well. Our allocation is more nonu. S. Versus u. S. The whole conversation weve had about Energy Impacts us in a positive way i agree. It really helps europe and japan and big developed markets around the world. We think non u. S. Versus u. S. For the rest of the year is a better play in a multiasset portfolio and utilities and staples are pretty rich in value. We would shy away from those a little bit and move more toward nonu. S. Sell them to dani shed be happy to buy them here. There you go. Thats what makes a market. Jim, you have liked europe and japan. You mentioned that in the past. Europe has had such a great run in the First Quarter. They far outperformed the u. S. Markets here. Time for a pause. I know im sounding its the guessing game weve been playing about the u. S. Market for the last five years. Do you think well see a pause . Or do you want to put money there . We absolutely could see a pause. Id still be putting money there. We like europe and japan, especially japan mid and smaller companies. We think the stimulus measures put if place in europe creates enough of a safety net for investors to begin to take risks over there. We also think that its best to do it in the hands of an active manager with a proven track record. We like ted weiss at Fidelity International growth is the to play both of those markets well. Thats as specific as it gets. Exactly. Larry, where are you going to make money in the Second Quarter . Well, the Second Quarter really depends on the dollar. The dollar train, its been a very powerful move. And theres so many trades around the world that are tied to the dollar. So theres a number of sectors and emerging markets that have been annihilated in the First Quarter relative to the dollars move. So we could see a reversion to the mean there. Which way is it going, though, larry, before we go . Do you think the strong dollar trend on the back of trade numbers and everything reasserts itself or instead weak data do we see a weak dollar return in the Second Quarter . Well if you look at just the u. S. Economic data relative to the world, it points to the strong dollar trade. But the things behind the scene that are concerning the fed, once again, i think from our friends in washington, acg analytics tell us, that the fed is very concerned about the move in the dollar. So at some point they start to talk the dollar down or they start to contain it and recent language from the fed, thats what weve seen. All right. Folks, thank you all. Have a good long holiday weekend. Appreciate your thoughts as always on the markets. See you later. Thank you so much. A oo50 minutes to go here. You can hear the whoopwhoops going. We usually hear them. Before a long holiday weekend. Its only about 3 10 eastern. Right now a dow up 57 points. The s p adding seven. The nasdaq again, the lagger today up about five. Keeping a close eye on oil prices here. Yes, oil volatile today getting back some of yesterdays gains on news of this framework for a nuclear deal with iran. The pros will be weighing in on where oil prices go from here. Also ahead, jobs jobs jobs. All eyes on the employment report due out first thing tomorrow morning. Our Steve Liesman tells us how scary things could get next. And later, Mohamed Elerian will give us his take on the jobs report and the impact it could have on treasuries and when the fed pulls the trigger on Interest Rate hikes. Always look forward to talking to mohamed. Thats coming up on closing bell. Let me talk to you about retirement. 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With a signature. Legalzoom has helped start over 1 million businesses, turning dreamers into business owners. And were here to help start yours. Slightly positive day for equityies here in the u. S. With the dow up 46 points. Hasnt been a very volatile day. No. Really. I think it is feeling like a day before big number. We got the jobs number coming out tomorrow. Well talk about that in a moment. The s p up five. The nasdaq up three. I want to show you how the 500 stocks are doing in the s p 500. And even for such a slight up day, we have a lot more stocks green than red today. Thats for sure. Watch oil here closely as well. As bill mentioned the market will be closed tomorrow for good friday. Thats not stopping the Labor Department from releasing the march jobs report at 8 30 a. M. Eastern time. Cnbc will bring you the jobs number they second they hit the tape and instant analysis from the pros. Tune in tomorrow morning for special coverage. Steve leaseiesman joins us to take us through what to watch for in the report. Reporter the worry about tomorrows number is if it follows a weaker trend of data and ends up disappointing. Heres what everybody is expecting 248 is the number. If that happens, folks, it will be the 13th month in a row above 200,000. Thats a pretty good streak right there. Unemployment seem unchanged. Watching the average hourly wages, 0. 2 compared to 0. 1 in the prior month. But just when it looked like growth clearly softened along come three data points just in the past 24 hours to muddy the picture a little bit, want to show you what they were. Auto sales beating expectations. The trade deficit youre talking about that thats a positive for growth, whether or not it was infected by the port. Well have to see jobless claims also. Really low numbers there. 268,000. Heres some of the commentary im reading before the report comes in. We cant keep getting reports like this showing current labor Market Conditions are at full employment and have the fed maintain that there is something wrong out there in the economy, thats bank of coketokyo. The fed continues with the mantra that there remains slack in the labor market but these data suggest that any such slack is evaporating quickly. Another from morgan stanley. Guys, ill tell you what my number is. I ran the model and its a meager 200,000. Oh, he comes a meager . How spoiled have we gotten . I know. I think thats right, kelly. Thats a time when we really aspired to that number there. I have to tell you, my error rate has gone up the past threw months. Each one of the numbers we had has come in 50,000 above where the model is. It ran really good for about a year. The fast four months its been off the charts. In terms of my model undershooting how strong the job markets we like that trend. Stay there. Lets talk about it. We bring in meagan green, chief economist at john hancock. Whats your expectation for the headline number . I think it could be around 250,000. To be honest, ill be looking through the headline matter. Because you want im looking wage growth. Yeah, i want to see how much wage pressure weve been getting. Do you expect to see some . I dont. In addition to bad Economic Indicators lately we have a global glut of labor. Meagan do you look its interesting if we keep adding jobs the aggregate income labor goes up. Does that at some point matter or are you wanting to see wage growth specifically pick up . Does that distinction make any sense . Yeah eventually you think it would start to feed through into the wage data. It hasnt so far. Id like to see it picking up in its own right. As long as we have billions of workers coming online in the emerging markets, i dont see why we would see wage growth pushing in. If we dont have wage growth pressures, we wont have upward pressure on what do you think steve . Im not talking to megan. She says it doesnt matter. Im coming in tomorrow at 6 00 in the morning to be on a special show were having. Megan, take that back and ill tell you what i think. Megan and are getting up at 6 00 to watch. You better be. I think thats right. Theres a lot more slack in the labor market than the official unemployment numbers would suggest. What i keep saying is this general economic concept. Dont say somebodys not going to do something until you tell me the price theyre not going to do it at. What i mean by that is right now at the current wage level, thats been low enough to keep certain people on the sidelines. A little upward tick. I dont know if mcdonnells and t. J. Maxx, whats happening with target is enough to bring some people back in but at a higher price, you will take at least some people who have sidelined themselves and bring them back into the labor force. What about some of the wage hikes were seeing in corporate america, megan . Do you think that will have a positive effect . I think its great pr. Sort of on the fringe, isnt it . Thats right. It will help on the margin. How long before we start to see meaningful wage growth though . I think it could be another 6 to 12 months so in my view i think the fed should hold out to start hiking rates and should and will are totally different things. I think theyll end up hiking at the end of this year out of compulsion to do something. I really think they should wait until 2016. Can i tell you some of the implications of what meagan is talking about . Tell me if im wrong here. Youre saying the fed should allow the Unemployment Rate to drift down. Its a bit like one of those guys staying dont shoot until you see the whites of their eyes. Let the number get down 5. 1. Could you imagine a sub 5 Unemployment Rate with the fed not hiking rates . I could, actually. I mean, the fed has redefined its definition of full employment twice now. They may well have to do it again, so i could see us getting sub 5 unemployment before they start when those numbers come down bill, the pressure on the Federal Reserve is going to be enormous for them to hike. It already is enormous at this point, but can you imagine that they will ever get the perfect scenario that theyre looking for with unemployment down to where they want it to be and Inflation Expectations up to where they want it to be all at the same time . Its difficult to see, to be honest. Heres a really scary statistic. If you take u. S. Price data and employ the eurozones methodology for actually calculating inflation, the u. S. Is in deflation already. That cpi . Cpi. Already people are freaked out about the eurozone being in