Transcripts For CNBC Closing Bell 20150501 : vimarsana.com

CNBC Closing Bell May 1, 2015

It was streamed online. After all that i wasnt up at 11 00 p. M. I tried. I didnt think you would be. At 3,000 for the battery. Really, how much would the whole thing really cost you to buy and install . Well separate the fact from the fiction, coming up. This is the critical point. Social problems meantime linkedin, twitter, yelp all taking it on the chin after earnings reports. What tech stocks will take center stage with perhaps big moves next week. Plus a look at the pawn shop economy. The man who has his finger on the pulse of the consumer Rick Harrison will join us on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange. He has a unique perspective on the shape and strength of the economy right now, especially from the consumers perspective. Hes also brilliant. Hes a smart guy. The Great College professor you had who knew everything and had these great stories. Really looking forward to having him back on set. About an hour to go to the close. Yesterday, to close out the month of april, declines across the board. A lot of trades that had been working up to that point really werent working yesterday. Which is the trend and which is the counter . Today were starting the month of may off, typically a tougher one but with green arrows. The dow is up 169 points almost 1 . Same goes for the s p, up about 20 at the moment. The nasdaq the outperformer of 55. Other indices are also very strong which we will talk about in our Closing Bell Exchange right now. We have joe duran from united capital, beth ann bobino from s p. Shes with us at the New York Stock Exchange and so is kenny polcari. Whats this rally about today . Its much more a dead cat bounce after what happened yesterday, right . You saw the market sell off violently as we ended the month of april. As Arthur Cashin said yesterday, it was like window smashing instead of window dressing. Today is a low volume day. Rally back is not really on a lot of commitments. I think you really have to be careful when you think, listen its all over. Its said and done. I think well run into more of an issue as we move into the next week of may and we have more earnings reports. Speaking of the fundamentals weve had earnings and news on the economy that hasnt been all that great. The Consumer Spending data, okay, i guess. This mornings ism number not that great. How is the atlanta fed consistently nailing the gdp print . It is may day. The good news is it doesnt look like were going into may in a deep freeze. We are expecting weakness. It will be softer than what were usually for. Its slow and steady all along. Keep in mind while that manufacturing number you brought up that sentiment reading, its showing the expansion in the Manufacturing Sector suggesting theyre able to basically take up absorb that dollar strength. Consumer sentiment is very strong. Its at a 2,000 a very strong number. Also, the employment cost index indicates that wages are now at the highest rate since 2008 suggesting people are getting more money in their paychecks. That number we were convinced yesterday was what was causing the selloff as people were expecting maybe the fed will start raising rates in june but now we have todays rally. Never mind. What do you think, beth ann . I think probably everybody just changed their mind today. I do that all the time. In terms of i suppose that strong wage numbers put the fed back on the radar. We are expecting the fed to move in september. We think the numbers are showing march is a one off. The fed will be waiting to see strong readings for the april jobs report. Were thinking something over 200,000 will be which we expect will be something that will give them reason to move. Were also looking for the wage numbers to really pick up. Remember, we have a lot of people that came into the market. Look at the millennials. They basically came in in 2007. They were hit by the weak job market. Right. Lets see if 2015 gets a better shop. Joe duran, are you making any changes as we get into the month of may now . Yes, i think youve got to start looking at where do you invest in a potentially rising rate environment . Even if it only starts in september. Weve also seen longterm rates going up. You want to be larger cap in a rising rate environment. And the second thing that were looking at is going and investing where the markets havent participated as much europe emerging markets. Those valuations are quite attractive relative to the u. S. And i think the u. S. Is in better economic shape but interestingly, germanys gdp was better than the u. S. s in the First Quarter. So which isnt saying much by the way. No, not much. But were in the early stages of money supply increase in europe. Youre going to see, i think, rising asset prices. Youll also see less volatility. I think interesting to go large cap, europe and emerging markets and of course you still have to invest in the u. S. All right. Let me and bonds, bonds are very high risk. Let me get another angle in here today. Transportation stocks have really shown today, gaining altitude, bob pisani is at the post where most the Airline Stocks trade right now. Bob . Big rally today. Yes. Its interesting. Transports had a tough time in april, particularly the Airline Stocks. Im here at the post. John mkcthatnamerney. Let me show you the chart here. This was southwest, at 43. Went all the way down to 40 as oil spiked up to the highs for the year. These are what i call japanese candlesticks, which a lot of guys watch when theyre down here. Generally the news trend is very good. Fares are higher and the airlines are more profitable. Southwest may double their earnings this year. Summer travel demand has been strong. The important thing, most of the airlines are still trying to find ways to reduce capacity even though business is great they want capacity down because theyre managing for profits, bill and kelly. Theyre not managing just for revenues anymore. They used to try to maximize revenues. Now they just want to make profits. Thats starting to shine through. The higher oil is a little bit of a problem for them. All right. I think theyll work through that with higher prices. Great stuff, bob. Thank you. We want to get comments from our panel in just a second. We have breaking news on auto sales in the meantime. It is that time of the month. Phil lebeau has details. How do they look. 16. 45 million. That is the Monthly Sales rate according to the folks at auto data. They crunch all the numbers together for some comparison, most on wall street were expecting a sales piece of 16. 7 million. This is a little shy of that but compared to april of last year its a 4 gain. Again, the rate 16. 45 million. Guys, back to you. Phil if i may, im surprised by that. I mean to come in that shy of forecasts, what do you think is going on here . Im not surprised, kelly. Doing this long enough i usually see it swing up or down 3 or 4 . Thats not a huge dropoff compared to what wall street was expecting. You remember at the end of march, you do have a fair amount of the automakers and dealers really pushing sales for the end of the quarter. Thats a big push there. You add a strong number at 17 million last month, there might have been pay back here. That 16. 5 i dont think it will make anybody sit there and say weve seen a dramatic slowdown. May is expected to be relatively strong. Joe duran, let me go to you real quick. Given the choice between the auto sector and the airlines here which would you pick . I think you take the autos. What youre seeing is higher incomes and oil is very unpredictable and my sense is that youd rather be in the auto sector simply because we are seeing an increase in incomes, the economy is stronger and everyone loves a new car. But i think thats where youre going to be more interesting in the growth going forward. We welcome winnies son from the son group well partners in l. A. We worked out audio difficulties. Glad you could be with us winnie. So glad to be here. Bringing you up to speed, which market are you more likely to believe, yesterdays selloff or todays rally. Probably neither. I believe right now we have challenging times and the u. S. Is sluggish. Going forward, were optimistic but were cautious. Winnie is that im curious about some of the high valuations were seeing in the private markets. Some of the exciting names that are over there versus the opportunities here in the publicly traded space. Do you think at all theres a lack of good opportunities . Well kelly, theres never a lack of opportunity if you have money. Theres money to buy. Theres opportunity. Right now, for us here in california we feel very comfortable with the story of technology. We saw weakness yesterday. Long term thats a space that were bullish on. Even the social media names, winnie, some of the ones that got hit, you dont think thats the end of some kind of trend . Linkedin got hurt a little bit this beak but long term you know, at the end of the day, social capital is extremely valuable as you and i know. People are communicating and watching news differently. We saw that with telecom, with verizons news recently and fios. In this day and age, social media, theyll figure out a way to capitalize. Kenny polcari, do you want to see more strength . What do you do with the market . Ill ask you basically the same question i asked winnie. Do you believe yesterdays selloff or todays rally. I believe yesterdays selloff is where were really going to go. I think were challenged, well hit resistance as we challenge the highs. I dont think the market is ready yet. I dont think the economys ready yet. All the data were seeing continues to be weak. Even though i agree well make a slow recovery i think the market is still challenging. It needs to let the economy catch up. I want to say one other thing when you talk about stocks like linkedin theres not a lot of capitalization in terms of shares outstanding. Its a 200 name. The moves that you see in a stock like linked in are exaggerated because of stock outstanding. Theres not a lot of float. Therefore, it creates even more volatile moves. Thats a great point. Well give you the final word. What were you saying about payrolls, whats your estimate. Looking something over 200,000, probably 225,000. That would be a nice reprieve from what we saw in march. It would. Maybe theyll revise march up a little bit. That would help as well. Thanks folks. Good to see you. Have a good weekend. With a little over 50 minutes to go we are seeing gains across the board and key levels to watch. The dow back above 18,000 at the moment. The nasdaq just about 2. 5 points away from being back above 5,000 and up next is elon musks tesla turning into more of a Battery Company . Plus reaction from that from generacs ceo. Theyve had a tough week too. Earnings disappointed, stock down hard. Well talk Aaron Jagdfeld coming up. Recentick harrison on the economy. If youre running a business legalzoom has your back. Over the last 10 years weve helped one million Business Owners get started. Visit legalzoom today for the legal help you need to start and run your business. Legalzoom. Legal help is here. Rally down wall street especially technology the nasdaq up more than 1 . We were talking earlier about which market do you believe, yesterdays big selloff todays big rally . Art cashin, our great mentor came by during the commercial break to point out yesterdays selloff had much heavier volume, over a billion shares traded where as todays rally will maybe do 800 million. Volume equals validity were his words of wisdom. Tesla locking into lold gains, up about 20 . Elon musk unveiling his latest innovation. New batteries for homes and businesses is what its all about, phil lebeau. Take a closer look for us. Reporter what were look at are the numbers behind the new battery units, specifically on the consumer side. 3,500 and i can have a backup power supply in my house . Thats all it costs . Not necessarily. We reached out to the folks at voler city an they indicated its not own hadly 3,550 you also have to either sign a nineyear Service Agreement for 5,000 or buy the inverter and handle the installiation. Then theres the question about how much these batteries will cost, these units will cost when operating them. Theres an interesting study, if you will back of the envelope math being done by a professor out of princeton. He basically says from his calculations it comes out at ten times the cost of a generator. Could be as low as four times the cost. Its more expensive than running a generator. He says it could work out to 70 cents per kilowatt hour cycle. Keep in mine well see more studies over the next couple of months where people will say what are the real costs involved here . And how much are you actually saving . And does it make sure for people who have solar panels to also have one of these systems . So if they do run into a problem with the grid they can have backup power. Phil thank you. Thats what its all going to come down to. Teslas new battery product could create competition for generator makers like generay. Aaron jagdfeld president and ceo of generac holdings. Its an interesting product. Obviously its not a new product, the technology and concept have been around for quite some time. From a purely economic standpoint, we would agree with all the information thats being gathered on this in terms of it being really not an economical solution for a backup power, a pure backup power source. What our products are for are for those people who could experience extend outages. So, you know if you have a large storm or hurricane, ice storm, whatever the case may be and your power is out for a day, two days or a week, a battery pack will last you 48 hours. The challenge would be to spend 10,000 on a solution that only lasts 48 hours. You dont know how long a power outage is going to last. Thats really where our product comes in. Your product offers what by comparison . You just said tesla, the user at this point would be spending 10,000 for 48 hours of power backup. That compares to what youre offering. Their product would last between four to eight hours. Our product can go weeks on end as long as you have a natural gas fuel supply. You add another 3,000 2,000 to 3,000 depending on the cost of the installation to have it put in your home. What about the environmental issue, i mean one thing weve not addressed here is that this would be can be attached the elon musk version, to a solar panel. Theres no gasoline involved no natural gas involved. Can you go that direction as well eventually at generac . Over time if the Technology Becomes more economically certainly a battery could be envisioned as part of a broader backup strategy for the company. Its something we continue to watch, fuel cells, microturbins and other things that have been out there for years. Battery technology is flat out economically solely as a backup source. As a storage device used in concert with solar array or wind power, it could provide a homeowner a brief respite from the grid should the grid fail. Its not going to give you a day, two days or a weeks worth of power. Phil. As you heard the anournsnounce mat last night, then the reaction today, we saw the hit your stock took and the knee jerk response from investors out there, what was your reaction as you saw how the mcwas digesting this information . I think theres a lot of information to be learned about what the solution is right . The announcement itself was a little bit thin on details. Weve had to do digging as have you, phil, in terms of trying to figure out the true cost of the system. I think as people figure this out over the coming weeks and months ahead, the math again, for our product in the space that we provide a solution for, its for people who want to have coverage in an extend outage. This reallien is for our market. Its not really were kind of serving different markets with the different solutions. I think the hit on our stock, frankly, is more related to the First Quarter earnings miss than it was at announcement by tesla. Right. Nonetheless, its the timing is what the timing is. Aaron, to that point, your miss was partly because of the drop from the oil and Gas Companies who use your systems. Obviously they were in a tough environment. Do you think this announcement by tesla could help capture the consumers imagination when it comes to what your system or others can do in the home expand the pie, if you will and give everybody a piece of it. We love to have the discussion about backup power. If this is helping consumers understand the options and the space and probably more importantly, kelly the need for backup power. The grid continues to age. These are things that while maybe they didnt happen to us these may not be particularly happening on a much greater frequency. The duration of outages is longer than it was ten days ago. This is where our product serves a wonderful purpose for people who have concern about that. And the tesla product i think is serving a different part of the market. All right. Aaron of generac, thank you. Can you believe that about the power grid . Thats where the need for infrastructure, investment, thats what were talking about, longer power outages, more frequent failures. Taking that huge demand off the power grid periodically will be a big move down the road. Thats for sure. Transformative. Heading to the close, we have about 35 minutes left in the trading session. Holding near the highs for the major averages, the dow is up 165 points nasdaq up the s p up roughly 20 points almost 1 gain there and the nasdaq up 1. 1 . Almost back to 5,000. Coming up wall street feeling a bit antisocial this week. Two top social media stock watchers will weigh in on what other social names might get hit next. After the break, Rick Harrison of pawn stars will be here. Hes wandering the floor. Everybody is recognizing him. I dont know if theyre trying to pawn something or whats going on. Hell tell us if he thinks u. S. Consumers are back to their spendhappy ways. There he is. Rick harrison in the house. Heading toward post nine. Back in just a moment. Ive never been to las vegas and ive never pawned something in my life. I have to know how much the gold in this college ring is worth. The college rings, its a novelty item. You have scrap value. This one is 2007. 2007. You have around 14 grams. You have 200 worth of scrap here. He tried to let you down gently. People cant see is that hes shaking it in his hand right there. Almost like somebody smelling dollar bills. 200 for the college ring. I gave it my best shot. Hes one tough cookie at the pawn shop. Rick harrison knows a good thing when he sees it. With thousands of people going in and out of his

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