Market. I knew the warm weather wouldnt last forever. No, winter is finally here. Winter is coming as they say. Amazon, by the way, releasing actually some rare numbers this morning saying it was a record setting holiday for the ecommerce jiebt. We will look at whether there are any other retail winners this Holiday Season. And an ugly drop for one biotech firm, chimerix, the stock down 81 . That story is coming up on the closing bell. Never good when the change is larger than the price of the company there. Not good. Lets start with oil, though, snapping that winning streak as saudi arabias budget deficit surges. Jackie deangelis is live at the nymex with more on that. A more than 3 slide in the wti to finish at 36. 81. Brent finishing under wti, just showing how much its turned out of favor in terms of this market right now. You mentioned a key point, saudi arabia out with its 2015 budget numbers, this did not help the selling that we saw today. A near deficit of almost 100 billion showing this country, this kingdom getting squeezed by low oil prices. Also we know revenues came in less than expected and spending was higher than expected. The last time saudi arabia saw a surplus was in 2013. It gets nearly 80 of its revenues from oil. This has been very critical. This line in the sand that theyve drawn to maintain market share and weather the storm of low oil prices, it is starting to hit where it hurts. Im not necessarily sure that will spur some action from saudi arabia, but certainly its becoming a problem. The last few days that we have seen gains in oil prices traders were not surprised by it. They said going into christmas, going into a threeday weekend thats the kind of thing that typically happens, then this selling happened when the reality comes back to the marketplace. Volumes are expected to be light this week, again, we have another threeday weekend coming up, but looking at 2016 the consensus right now is we could touch those lows we saw not long ago, guys. So that 9. 7 surge that we saw in the price of oil last week, jackie, the word from the floor it sounds like is that was just sort of a bounce on an oversold price of oil. Yea, and thats what happens. When prices go down that fast you have people who are day trading, getting in for a quick browns to the upside but there was nothing behind that momentum to hold it up and thats what weve seen every time we have had a recent rally. So right now is a time to be a little cautious when it comes to oil prices and i would say this, it always comes back to fundamentals, you know, barring some sort of geopolitical event, but fundamentals havent changed. No, they have not. See if you can name an oil producer who is not suffering right now as a result of lower oil, even the mighty saudi arabia. Exactly. They are having to borrow to keep their budget going there. Its incredible. And the ruble at the lowest point of the year, russia a hurting, canada is hurting. Ripple effects around the globe. Who had 3 32 would be the first time sara mentions much more ahead. First we have to talk about the shipper fedex taking some heat after failing to deliver packages in time for christmas. Morgan brennan is at a fedex facility in new york city. Whats been the fallout here, morgan . Thats a good question. Fedex not delivering all of those packages all of its packages in time for christmas morning, a severe storms in the south near its main express sorting hub in memphis were partly to blame but also in the week leading up to christmas it handled volume that far exceeded all previous records including an unprecedented surge of last minute ecommerce shipments. Fedex is not disclosing how many shipments were delayed for the holiday but the company did add operations on Christmas Day, something it had not been planning previously to do, also extra operations on saturday as well. Ups for its part seems to have done a bit better, the company saying that it got the majority of its planned packages delivered by 8 00 p. M. On thursday, also that it didnt have to send workers out to make any kind of deliveries or run any kind of operations on Christmas Day. That is a potential win for ups after two rocky Holiday Seasons, but a big focus for analysts and investors now is going to be cost. How much finding out how much these shipping companies actually spent, particularly fedex with those expanded operations, to get packages to doorsteps in the last couple of weeks. The other thing i will note is that the second part of peak shipping season is getting way under way, thats ecommerce returns and all those gift cards that are now being spent. Ups alone expects to deliver 5 million returns between now and next wednesday, that represents a 15 increase in that part of its business over last year. Guys, back to you. Its no wonder, then, that jeff bay zeros wants to do it himself in some cases in terms of delivery. For a company that is so obsessed with customer service, when you are beholden to the last mile to the deliverer who is not under your employ, this is what can happen, thats why hes talking about leasing jets to do this himself, right . Certainly thats one part of the equation, i think the other part and something that analysts have been telling me all day today is that a company like amazon and im not saying that this actually happened with this company this time around, but some of these retailers and etailers saw some tremendous surge in ecommerce demands this season even more than the forecast that they originally gave to the shipping companies who planned their peak seasons around those forecasts. So theres two sides to it. Either way it looks like big vom lums, a lot of people took to the internet to do their shopping this season. What about the u. S. Postal service, are they capturing any of this business . It feels like yesterday when we were reporting on their dwindling cash pile they were going to be bankrupt at any moment. Has this helped . The u. S. Postal service last week coming into christmas this was their most recent numbers, they havent issued new ones yet, but they said that their package volumes so far for the peak season were up 15 . Their earlier forecast for the season was 10. 5 . So theyve been seeing volume surge as well. Keep in mind the Postal Service particularly for last mile deliveries has taken on more and more amazon business specifically, including those sunday deliveries in the last couple years. That will help. Morgan, thank you very much. Thanks, morgan. For the update on the shippers. The ceo of ups weighs in on all of this, the busy Holiday Season a first on cnbc interview tomorrow, its happening during the 9 00 a. M. Eastern hour. Lets get to our closing bell exchange. We have price headily with us today from big friends. Com, Kenny Polcari from oneal securities is enjoining leftovers from his seven fish feast that he made at christmas and Rick Santelli checks in for us from chicago as well. So, kenny p. , what do you do with this week . This is the week we typically get what do you do with the leftovers. First of all, there were no leftovers, right, they cleared me out of everything. I can imagine. Second of all, what do you do on a week like this . Its four days to the end of the year, people were panicking, im quite surprised with oil being down what it was, there was all this talk this morning the market is going to crash. Look, the market is holding in well considering that move in oil. I think you have to take a deep breath, you have to wait it out until next year. We kind of nothing is going to change between today and friday of this week or even tuesday of next week. So, therefore, i think the i think the story remains the same, i think there are some concerns, but overall i think the market is okay and i think theres starting to be a little bit of a disconnect between where oil goes and the Broader Market goes. It sounds like you might agree with that is correct you say you are a longterm bull on u. S. Stocks, you expect the dow to go back up to 20,000 next year. Does it need to break this old pattern with oil in order to do that . Sara, i think, you know, like i said, the low oil prices are actually a good thing for the u. S. Economy. Yes, its dragging down that energy stock sector for the averages, but this pattern for the end of 2015 has been spot on what we saw in 2011, august drop, big october rally and then sideways all the way to the last day of the year and then the market blasted off at the start of 2012 to the upside. Im expecting a similar type of an upside move as we start off 2016. Obviously earnings will be the driver and i think its a jekyll and hyde market. I think we go up big, dow 20,000 the first half of 2016, i think as we have in past lame duck president ial election periods the second half of 2016 im expecting a fairly substantial decline, its that uncertainty and perhaps the fed going too far on rate hikes will be a couple of negative catalysts in the second half of the year. Rick, what are you wachlg as we go into the end of the year . Is energy the straw string to drink, that the major catalyst or is there Something Else going on here . I think energy is important but we need to view energy in a more macro picture. If manufacturing wasnt looking as though its going into a recession, lets say manufacturing was on the upswing, a lot of these input costs, you know, whether you use plastic, pvc, you know, a lot of petrobased areas where the inflow costs will be down, General Energy usage of manufacturing in general, but we are not seeing some of those benefits because manufacturing is deteriorating. The economy is kind of flat right now. So i think there is a whole another side to the energy story, but we are just not in the type of economy that is showcasing some of those positives. In terms of Interest Rates, its hard to garner any serious conclusions with the type of activity weve seen. We did have and i havy twoyear note auction, the curve did flatten a bit meaning long rates were dipping a little bit while the short rates were holding firm, but all Things Considered the big mystery for 2016 is going to be how manufacturing does, how the input in the economies affect demand in things like oil showcase the benefits, and on the dollar wall street journal has a great article about theres so many foreign components to different imports and exports that a weaker dollar or a stronger dollar, i should say, isnt necessarily as bad for multinationals as many of us have thought in the past because its just a different world on the you know, the way you package some of these components and export them. Quickly, rick, it sounds like the Consensus Forecast for next year is higher treasury yields and stronger u. S. Dollar. Do you buy that . Well, i think that the dollars strength might be a bit overplayed because i think other Central Banks will run into quantitative easing problems in terms of size and in terms of the economy in general i think that Interest Rates on the long end may pay more attention to weaker growth, others may say its inflation or lack of inflation, but you are not going to see upward pricing until you see better growth. I think there are basically glued at the hip these days. Kenny, there are a lot of people who are not very high on this market for 2016. You know, after this flat year we have had in 2015. Lots of headwinds they want to identify as slowing growth in earnings, the higher dollar, you know, lower oil, all those things. Right. Piling on the stock market. I hear you, but i think the oil i think the dollar move is already happening in anticipation of what the fed has done. I dont necessarily see the dollar taking off unless we get so many more Interest Rate increases next year which i dont think were getting, i think were getting one, maybe two, and i think its happening before the summer because then you get close to the president ial election and does the fed want to be raising rates and showing support for one party or the other. I think the second half of the year we wont get any movement of rates. If it happens at all it will be the first half of the year. I think the market and u. S. Economy, albeit slow is starting to make a recovery. I agree with the other guest, i think you will see a better year next year. Price, you have bullish positions on apple, on pepsico and on mcdonalds. I see the theme here is big multinational companies, you are not scared of investing in u. S. Companies that have exposure abroad. What else are you thinking with these three . Just like youre talking about with the dollar, i mean, the dollar moved up, is already factored in. Look at mcdonalds you can breaking out the new highs, 80 of their profits overseas, thats my favorite dow stock in 2016, i think its up 20 by the end of the year, apple is 20 billion in cash plus, very safe consistent ways to ride out that kind of jekyll and hyde volatility and pepsi same idea, these stocks have been sideways for a year plus and i think thats healthy that we have gone sideways amidst a lot of head wind, i think the market is watching its breath getting ready for that next big boom up in the first half, the second half i think all bets are off, i think it its rougher whether the fed goes further or not. Thank you. If we dont see you later happy new year. Happy new year. Heading to the close we have 47 minutes left in the trading session, the dow was down about 100 points on the open this morning, its come back right now we are down just 35. Deadly tornadoes, floods and delivered conditions heading across the country. Find out what Mother Nature has in store next. Plus we will also speak with an analyst who talks about the potential on your investments from all of this crazy weather. Plus amazon breaking records during the Holiday Shopping season. Courtney reagan has that story coming up on closing bell. Stay tuned. Checking out the listing on zillow i sent you . Yeah, i like it. This place has a great backyard. I cant believe were finally doing this. All of this. Stacey, benjamin. This is daniel. Youre not just looking for a house. Youre looking for a place for your life to happen. Zillow. Were always looking for ways to speed up your Car Insurance search. Heres the latest. Problem is, we havent figured out how to reverse it. For now, just log on to compare. Com. Plug in some simple info and get up to 50 free quotes. Choose the lowest and hit purchase. Now. If youll excuse me, im late for an important function. Compare. Com. Saving humanity from high insurance rates. Stocks trading lower today off the lows, though. The dow down 37 points right now, oil has been moving lower today, the price of wti still trading slightly above brent crude right now, its down 3. 4 and its taking the Major Oil Producers with it. Chevron, exxonmobil and bp all trading down about a percent today. Certainly Mother Nature has wreaked havoc in certain parts of the country, lets send it over to charles hatlock who is in garland, texas, for more. Reporter im at the independence apartment complex here in the southern part of garland, texas, where the tornado came through, an ef4 tornado with winds between 170 and 180 miles an hour. Now, take a look at some of the destruction here. These apartments were totally demolished here. They will have to be torn down. This area was the scene was on saturday night when the storm came through. It was dark, it was nighttime, there were sirens going off, so a lot of the people were able to get out. Only about 15 people were injured here. There were no deaths at these apartment complex, but its right on i30 and i30 is where most of the deaths occurred. All but three of the deaths were along the interstate. The storm came through in the middle of the night, swept cars off the freeway, smashed them on to an underpass below and thats where the deaths occurred. There were two deaths at a feed store gas station about eight miles from here and sadly an infant, only two or three days old, also perished when her parents mobile home was blown away in the town of blue ridge. Right now the weather is the best its been since saturday, at least its not range here, that has been a big problem as people try to get back and collect their belongings here. It is cold, though, its in the 30s with wind chills in the 20s. So its going to be a long, slow pick up pace here in the town of garland. Back to you guys. All right. You got it. Nbcs Charles Hadlock in garland, texas. We are starting to see natural gas continue its rebound as more typical cold weather makes its way into the forecast. Its up 32 in the last ten days. That would be natural gas. Yeah. After reaching a multiyear low. Joining us to discuss how you can make money and how it impacts your portfolio, jacob mizel chief meteorologist. So you are an analyst and meteorologist. Whats in the forecast and what does it say for natural gas now that we have had such a strong rally off of that low. After the mild december its clear that january is going to make that turn colder which is why weve seen this rally the past week, week and a half. The first week, week and a half of january it will stay cold, maybe a brief mild interlude from there but then there is a threat of even Colder Weather for the second half of january thats showing up in the past couple of days. We think thats part of whats led to the Short Covering rally in Natural Gas Prices today. What youre saying is its probably not going to go back. Nothing like christmas eve. We have had our warm weather for this winter. How much colder is it going to get . You say were going to have colder temperatures. Is it normal or below normal . The last couple of winters in the northeast and upper midwest has been horrible. So it really depends on where you are. In the south and southeast its actually going to be below average temperatures, were seeing theyre already seeing that. Its going to dip even further. The midwest and northeast are the two questions. Right now it looks like we will get back down to around average, we will warm back up in a week and then we are going out two weeks thats when we see the chance of the cold air over the north pole starts to move closer toward a lot of north american metropolitan cities, the northeast and midwest could be in the midst of something potentially big. Have see seen the peek of el nino and have we entering la anyone na. We have seen the peak a