Meeting in doha on sunday. We have citigroup head of commodities saying we could see a big selloff in crude oil come monday morning if a credible agreement is not reached this weekend. And ed morris will join us live to explain all of that in just a minute. Those big banks are pulling back slightly after rallying this week. Theres another Financial Group moving higher the last couple of weeks. Well tell you what that is and if its sustainable coming up. Apple shares falling just in the last hour on those reports. I think weve got the chart. There it is, down 1. 7 , lowered iphone production in the First Quarter. Why . Well have details on that in a little bit. And after the bell today, investing guru bill miller tells us why hes buying valeant right now. Hes got big expectations for that stock now, doesnt he . Doubling i think he said. Well press him on it. Lets start with oil dropping ahead of that key opeclike meeting this weekend in doha. Jackie deangeles has all of the details. We conducted a exclusive survey to figure out where people stand in terms of vision on pricing and what they think well hear from it. A little more than half of the participants thinksz theres more than a 50 chance something could happen at this meeting but not necessarily sure what. They dont think well see a production cut, that freeze could still be in play. And we have had this doha risk premium for past few weeks. Really difficult to figure out what the street is thinking at this point but barclays saying the outcome isnt necessarily that important. Bullish comments coming out of the meeting could influence oil prices as well. The one thing that everything seems to agree on, saudi arabia is the swing country here. Saudis need to agree with iranians on a freeze before anything can potentially happen, even before their agreements with russia that people have been speculating on. They have been tough negotiators and ramping uch production, opec production also up. They are looking at this from a market share standpoint. Thep dont want the iranians to get too much of a hold in the oil market here. It goes beyond oil for saudis as well. Its about regional stability. So a whole lot of confusion as we head in into doha but all eyes on that part of the world on sunday. Back to you. Thank you. Our jackie deank lis, our next guest says so expect a sharp selloff if no deal is reached over the weekend. Ed morse for citi. He joins us now for more. Im surprised people are expecting anything out of meeting this weekend. Weve already had indications that production is going to keep happening. How likely is it the saudis and iranians come to some kind of agreement . Do you really pin the movement in oil lately on expectations for this weekend . Thats a lot of questions. First, on the saudi iranian situation, no, the iranians have said even before sanctions were lifted that they intend to get their old market position restored and they wont have any discussion about it at any point in the future until they get that market position restored and maybe add a Million Barrels a day to that. They claim that others particularly saudi arabia have taken their old market share. Why should they participate in anything until the saudis participate in the cutback. On the other side. The saudis have said clearly, only ten days ago, not to expect them to do anything unless theres a movement on iranian side. If theres going to be an agreement, its going to be a gentlemans agreement and yes, to answer your second question, i think as do most of us, that the exceptional length we saw in the market growing up until this past week was a reflection in Market Expectations that something was going to come out of this meeting. And they thought it for a variety of reasons and now its just too risky to hold that position going into the meeting and thats why were seeing the selloff. We have so many questions because there are so many moving parts and pieces to this story. Iran just being one of those along with saudi arabia and russia, were not talking about the other countries as well. Venezuela has been suffering as a result of this. Our own oil business has suffered job losses saerlts. What will happen to them if they are able to come up with some kind of production freeze here . Youre still expecting countries to cheat, arent you . Were not expecting a freeze of any sort other than a very at best loosely worded gentlemans agreement to try to hold the line and see whats happening. I think the difference between now and more nervousness about the subject in january when we saw the market selloff and stayed low into the early part of february is now people are much more relaxed about whether theres an agreement or not. Were seeing the markets actually tighten up. The iea report of this week yesterday indicated that the ia saw the oecd countries having a close to 700,000 barrel a day drawdown into march. That would indicate that markets are tightening for a pretty good reason. Weve seen relly an incredible amount of oil disrupted from the markets. Were not seeing a spike in price but brent related crude was off the market, 630,000 barrels of day because of an explosion on a pipeline, another 300,000 barrels a day of nigerian crude from a pipe line explosion and another couple hundred thousand of colombian crude. Were living in a balance not that great between supply and demand. Theres a problem with inventory but not on the supply demand side. Just to put this in context. Opec was informed when the market share of those countries i dont know if you know offhand but i assume was much higher than what it is today and who knows then if were followed by argentina or other countries using Fracking Technology to join the fray. Where do we stand in terms of opecs representation of the overall oil market anyway . In 1985 when the saudis also had a market share strategy, the oil market was 60 Million Barrels a day, its 97, 98 million today. Opec was 30 million of that 60 million a barrel a day market. History has not been on their side. They kept their market share down because they the had Lowest Cost Oil in the world and see the margin to get a higher price. Now with fracking and u. S. Really the largest liquid producers in the world by a hefty number, they have to reevaluate that position and think thats what the saudis are doing, oil out of the ground is worth more than oil held in the ground. Thats why the market share strategy today seems to have a more permanent edge than it did in the 1980s. Ed, thanks for joining us. It will be a fascinating weekend and well see what happens come monday. Lets talk about this among other things in our closing bell exchange. Rickedleman is with us today and steven gilfoil from deep value at post nine at the New York Stock Exchange and Rick Santelli from chicago as well. Sarge, what levels are you looking at . Still holding at 2085 on the upper range . Thats where your resistance is. There was support yesterday and early today. They did pierce it. It is back over it now. I think thats the level you want to see us hold tonight. If it breaks we can go down to 2060. We dont want to see that. Then we move on. I dont think levels are what most guys are looking at right now. What were looking at right now is the underlying macro which has been awful. If you want to go through it, we have a nice beat in Empire State Manufacturing this morning but thats about it. Weve had ill read it because my brain isnt that big. Small Business Optimism and retail sales and cpi, industrial production, cap you and Consumer Sentiment he all in the toilet. What do you make of these markets . Theres an awful lot of noise and possesscy mix and sent ent is dropping to separate the noise from their longterm objectives. Odds are youre going to be wrong and its not going to do an awful lolt of good into next week. Your anticipation of the we cant call it an opec meeting, russia is in on this and Top Oil Producers but do you expect anything to come out of that . What do you think markets will do with it on monday . Im not optimistic. Rick santelli i was asking. Sorry about that. Im always fascinated by how markets like to price information that every vinester doing the trading knows theres no way to verify. Are the talks going to bring substantial meaning in any issue we can sink our teeth into. Even if it does, i dont know we have a firsthand way of knowing but i think the markets will still trade. As i look at the charts, i think the answer is easy. They are all going to cheat but commodities in general are turning. And that as we sit here in this quasi40 plus area, 60 will draw it up in a magnet, a much more powerful fashion than 30 draws do the down side. Will that be it . No. What were looking at in kmotdties and rrb index over the next ten months, its a shadowboxing with 10year note yield charts and almost exactly identical. That makes sense. Its a process. But i think the worst is behind us although the worst is among us when is it comes to that data. Sarge is spot on. To see unitization rates under 75 , havent seen that since august of 2010, a bit disturbing. If you want to handicap recession, dont look at the look at product levels, thats where youll find your clues. Inflation pressures or lack there after. Rick . I think were going to see short term volatility no matter what comes out of the markets out of this crazy meeting on sunday. Although its going to be imp t impactful, it will be forgotten by thursday. How about this crazy meeting, what if it is a rus by the russians to sell 42 a barrel for the wti crude . What if this is just a game and maybe the saudis were in on it . Youre always looking for that one little angle, the conspiracy theories there. Theres always somebody that deserves a nice punch in the nose there, bill. Thank you, guys, everybody have a good weekend. Well see you later. Wefl a news alert on intel. Whats going on, josh . Bill, these headlines on intel just dropping, according to oregonina, preparing for significant job cuts this spring. Some units will see double digit percentage cuts and thousands of job cuts across the country by the end of the year. We should point out cnbc did reach out to intel which offered no comment on this report. Intel obviously under pressure as stocks down about 10 year to date of the ongoing concerns about the weak pc market. Bulls will argue intel already discounts a lot of bad news in the pc market and more interested in that data center business. Well find out more next week. Intel does report earnings on april 19th but again, the headline here that intel is preparing for significant job cuts this spring. Back to you. Josh, thank you so much. This could go a couple of different ways. In the near term, if the bad news gets out ahead of the earnings release, the shares might price it in. On the other hand if they were hoping it wouldnt get out for some time, pointing in general to the challenges it fact faces, it may give more cause for concern. The semis are leading indicators for other industries as well. If they are seeing problems well have to do layoffs well probably hear bad news from other sectors that rely on chips that intel makes as well xbl sure, great point. Those shares down about 1 on the session today. By the way, we have 45 minutes to go here in the close. Watching a couple of interesting bellweathers today, intel being one of them and apple earlier, s p is down 2. 5 points and nasdaq only about 7. The financials on pace to outperform the broader averages this week. Have they climbed too far too fast we ask . Wilfred frost and mike santoli weigh in on that. Bill miller thinks valeant pharmaceutical shares could double and putting his money where his mouth is. Hell join us live after the bell. Youre watching cnbc, first in Business Worldwide. You both have a perfect driving record. Perfect. No tickets. No accidents. That is until one of you clips a food truck, ruining your perfect record. Yup. Now, you would think your Insurance Company would cut you some slack, right . 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Thats in contrast to jp morgan who felt the worse is behind them in terms of energy write downs. On the retail bank in the u. S. , citi saw year on year growth for First Quarter for First Time Since 2008. This is perhaps the takeaway of the week for me. Yes, q1 saw volatility and we have the hike back in december but loan growth was good and were reminded how much a single 25 basis point rate hike does for banks profitability of the on the flip side. Lots of focus on big falls in Capital Market erngsz and general theme is Investment Banker worse than equities in fixed interest and market business picking up and deal making still hasnt. Given the top headline environment, so far banks have performed well there. Important to focus on next week for Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley is head count, the others so far succeeding in cutting costs without axing jobs. Overall the s p banks up nearly 6 for the week as a whole, a good week for banks, no doubt about that. Indeed. Stay there. Lets get to you, mike. Shares of Asset Managers have been quietly rallying and thats something you pointed out as well. The very end of february i did a piece saying that the Asset Management stocks were looking very cheap. The market was pricing in a fullout bear market with heavy outflows from mutual funds and other funds these companies manage. Its not been an earnings story in terms of recovery basket of eight big Asset Managers and black rock, investco and big names, about 14 in the six weeks since the end of february. That compares to about 9 for the financials as a whole for the sector and several percent for the s p 500. These are basically leveraged plays on the financial markets. So when stock markets go up, these stocks go up even more. But on other hand, they are more stable business and not as dependent on fed policy as core banks are. Thats one of the reasons i think money has rushed back into this group as a way of betting on stability in the financial sector, not necessarily rushing off to new heights in the stock market. Correct me if im wrong, but i thought when black rocks results were out this week they were under weming for people. They were in general, they more or less came in the zone of expectations but i was struck how black rock shares responded yesterday. They gap down at the open a bit and rally 6. 5 through the end of the day. Inflows into black rock funds for 36 billion in the quarter. Black rock is amazingly well 5 trillion. They own i shares and etfs earn have exposure electric, they are the blue chip standard for the industry. Its not been about the earnings being that great. Thats why from here on, i think its a lot more about not just their own results but about essentially do the markets hold together and can we bet investors are will not flee these funds. With the kind of gain you were talking about the banks have enjoined. The question becomes have they risen too far too fast here . I think its a fair question but if we look at bank of america share price year to date it paints a pretty clear story. Its up about 8 this week, a big gain but its still down 15 year to date. And its start of year to trough performance which was then for february was down almost 30 . Weve rallied from the lows but were still down year on year. I think the other point to take notes comes back to the pickup in the profitability in the traditional banking side of things. During the quarter weve had such focus on the energy lows and Capital Market falls and specter of Interest Rates around the world. That doesnt apply to the u. S. Traditional bafrpging era. We had a rate hike and well are less through the year but the december hike feld through very well and that was a positive. As we mentioned off the top, so much hangs on this economic growth. Mike, well see you in just a bit. Georgia os born in washington for the imf spring meetings where the brexit has been a major topic and its a big concern for markets here too. Julia joins us live from washington with the chancellor. Julia in. Thanks so much, lets get straight into it. Chancellor, thank you so much for joining us. Lets assume its the morning of june 24th and they voted to exit the eu, whats the fallout . How bad is it . First of all the british economy is growing and one of the Fastest Growing in the world, attracting lots of investment and this is a big democratic exercise that resolves that great uncertainty which has been britains relationship with europe. I hope they vote to remain in and they are getting clear messages there are economic benefits for remaining in and costs if we leave. If we do leave, well have to deal with that situation. There will be a twoyear negotiation around the exit from the eu and of course our bank of england will be alert to the Financial Stability consequences of that. But were clear, leaving would cause economic shot and longterm Economic