Transcripts For CNBC Closing Bell 20160503 : vimarsana.com

CNBC Closing Bell May 3, 2016

People. And, rick, the dollar index, investments. I know you say watch the close, find out more why hes still betting against china in an thats most important, but it hit a low that we havent seen exclusive interview with our david faber coming up. Also markets down big today since october of 2014. The trend still seems to be in and clorox shares are up higher, place right now. 2 now. It was up 4 earlier on the back of earnings, plus theyve absolutely. Announced an acquisition. Even the fact that it did a mild well talk about all of that and uturn, its still higher than how basketball star steph curry yesterday and yesterday is your is helping cloroxs bottom line. Comp going back. It doesnt change much. And after the bell, cbs kicks off a big week of media actually it isnt even the level as much as it is how were earnings. Getting there. Wheel bring you those numbers and even my rollercoaster and hear from less mun vez on analogy. The problem is its been stopping at various points with the con fresh call. Quite wide spreads between them, lets talk with bob pisani. So no matter what currency youre looking at against any hes back tracking the selloff other currency, the volatility, right behind us here. What are those three things lets think about it. Youre talking about today, bob . Every country that investors are in have the currency and thats i think were getting a the ante. Little bit of a reversal of thats the lowest common three key trends. Denominator that ties everything take a look. Number one, stability in china. The data has been very choppy together. We want to continue to monitor that. The other issue is, you know, if and the manufacturing data was we start to see much more of not particularly supportive for fall about rates, its going to bullishness on china. Thats a problem. Change the dynamic. Number two, the dollar has been were down seven on a parallel weak all throughout the quarter. A lot of people happy about shift. That. Five, ten, 30s. But some are arguing that may be it looks to be the lowest shield stopping. In fact, the dollar index now has reverses on the upside close anywhere from 2 to 2 1 2 today, not good for the overall weeks depending on what maturity markets. You look at. And oil, we were thinking we we have a boat load of data were bottoming at 26. Especially productivity. We want to watch that very oil has been down 5 in the last closely, because in the end, couple of sessions. Productivity is cumulative. If youre light over a number of these three ideas have helped power the market forward and years, it takes a lot of today those cyclical groups that horsepower and economy that youre never going to get back. Were a big part of the rally you know, sarah, just last month, the energies, materials, financials, all thinking through your points about what Central Banks are doing here. Cyclicals are the ones leading the dollar index is still below to the down side. These are the market leaders for the quarter. 93. Neshlgs, financials, materials, i wonder with all of this happening does it give the feds some wiggle room if they were to and health. Their actually the ones that raise the rates and what kind of have been moving the markets forward and why were slightly cascading effect would they off of the heise, only 2 on the have . Its interesting. When think first raised them in s p 500. Another problem that weve had, poor profits from a lot of the december, it was not as big as it was in the First Quarter of banks. The year. European banks have been the fed keeps saying they want to raise rates. Reporting. Down 7 today. I would be surprised if they do. Their profits were down 64 over certainly the odds do not look very high, but i this the fed in switzerland. Would have some coverage here. Remember the big swiss bank. The question is do we want to take a look at the numbers here. Get into Central Banks fighting their fixed income revenues down with one another even further. 32 . The core of the companys im not sure they want to take the risk. Thats the kind of volatility management putting money at ubs weve seen. Kind of can you top this. And their transactionbased income down 32 . Steve, what are you watching as we head to the close here . Why is that . Because rich people werent sure where do you see opportunity . What was going on and they so, for me, i think that didnt do any trading or much in apple bucking the trend, its the way of activitieses. Been down. So the uncertainty is creating obviously weve seen it collapsing on itself and thats problems for all of those banks out there who have clients that that was green today and the decided deer in the headlights, rest of the market was red. Im not going to do anything. Im still long and i got longer. The good news, bill, is the so im a suffering man. Important thing is theyre ive been a hoper in apple. Seeing inflows into their wealth the line in the sand, 2043. Management division. So rich people are still there. Thats your flat on year. Theyre still putting money there. Thats the easy barometer. Theyre just not doing anything outside of that, the 200 day, with it right now. That uncertainty, a big problem. 2015. Guys, back to you. For ubs anyway. 2116. S p cash, sorry. Nothing like confused rich let me clarify that. Weve got that. People. Traders market. Yeah. Bob, thank you. Well see you in a little bit. Doing that trader speak again. Our bob pisani. Thank you, folks. Thank you. Our apple shares are up right weve got about 15 minutes. Now. A little bit less go to the theyre trying to avoid the close. The nasdaq is down 44. Session losing streak. So its in a way the reversal of hate an eight session losing everything we saw yesterday. Streak. Apple ceo tim cook telling jim exactly. The nasdaq down almost 1 . Cramer last night that india well have much more. Poses a great opportunity for plus billionaire head fund the tech giant. This is another huge one. Okay. India will be the most tighten kyle bass speaks exclusively with our david faber. Populous country in the world in theyre going to speak about china and the potential impact 2022. India today has about 50 of on chinas u. S. Markets as well. Also coming up the earnings their population at 25 years of age or younger. Onslaught does continue. Its a very young country. Well break down the numbers for people really want smartphones you as soon as they hit the tape. There, really want smartphones. Keep it here. Youre watching cnbc, first in business worldwide. And this year the first year, lte begins to roll out. singing huge market potential. Well, despite apples uptick you wouldnt haul a load without checking your clearance. Today, tech stocks overall are dragging the nasdaq lower. So why would you invest without checking brokercheck . Bertha coombs is in the middle check your broker with brokercheck. Of the action site in times square. Bertha . Thats right, bill. Were seeing weakness particularly with small caps. Biotech is off 1 . The big caps are weak as well. The fang names, facebook, amazon, google, and netflix all lower and a few downgrades have really been critical today as far as what weve seen in terms of stocks moving to the downside, hitting names like Sba Communications which was cut to a neutral from an overweight at jpmorgan following disappointing earnings. Jpmorgan cutting seagate f we can bring in that chart. Theyre among the biggest drags. Theyre the lowest performers today, biggest losers today. Very bc, seagates ability to play in a merger right now, eeeeohmumohweh being much more limited. hush my darling. also chip stocks are lower as dont fear my darling. the lion sleeps tonight. well. They said their march 2016 hush my darling. Monthly Sales increased less man snoring dont fear my darling. than what analysts were looking the lion sleeps tonight. for, up about 10 . Woman snoring but thats a lot less than we would normally see this time of take the roar out of snore. Year. And finally today twitter yet another innovation only at hitting an alltime low of 1390. A sleep number store. Three years ago that stock price at 26 and hit an alltime high of merely 75 a share. Bill . Our machine is down with the graphics. Im going draw that very quickly. Come through the wauchlt let me show you a twitter right now. Its hovering just above 14 a share. It went down to 1390 today. This was a stock that was nearly at 75 back in december of 2013. How its fate has changed. Jack dorsey running as fast as he can right now. Bert bertha, thanks very much. Lets get to our closing bell today. Sara hunt. Right next to her is steve grasso and in chicago where the cubs have the best record in baseball he would have told us that anyway, Rick Santelli would have told us that. Steve grasso, it seems to lack conviction today. There seems to be more conviction with this selloff. Whats going on . If you back to late february, china increased its fiscal deficit to gdp ratio and i think thats what got people to cover their shorts or positioning trade. You had energy, materials, industrials. They all ran. Welcome back. Have they run their course now 45 minutes left in the trading because theres still no signs session. The dow down 148. Of real Global Growth to really was down 220 at the low. Sink your teeth into. You can see of the 30 dow so i think youre seeing the components, five are positive today. Pfizer is the leader to the upside with a gain of 2. 7 on the earnings beat. The giant also raised its full year earnings forecast as it boosts sales of new cancer treatments. Stock to 33. 67 today. We have auto sales. How did we do, phil lebeau . Not a bad month. 1 1 17. 4. When you look at the individual automakers they were either up slightly or down slightly. For the most part they were in line with estimates. Fiat came in slightly above estimates that were out there from a number of firms. Taking a look at what was driving sales last month, again, strong pickup sales. We receive that month after month. Suvs also very strong. Average incentive, 3,021 according to true car. Thats an increase of 13 to april of a year ago, but keep in mind the transaction price is also higher. As a percentage of that transaction price, were still around that 10. 5 , 11 range, which is not anywhere close to what it was back in the heyday where you saw huge incentives really diluting the profitability of the sales of vehicles. Here we are. Roughly in that 17. 2 , 17. 3 , 17. 4 range, guys. This is where we could actually see salings ramp up dramatically. Keep in mind the biggest determining factor if you want to look at how strong auto sales are, look at consumer confidence. As it goes, so goes auto sales. Guys, back to you. All right. Phil, for now, thank you so much. Well see you. Our own phil lebeau. And our david faber has been out at the milken conference. David joins us for a cnbc exclusive interview with kyle bass. Its all yours. Thank you. Kyle bass joins me now as he has over the years many times. We have recently spoken about china, focusing on your funds in terms of your believe that it will have to be devalued because of nonperforming loans in the Banking System. Thats right. Has anything changed in the last six to eight weeks when we last spoke to change your opinion . No, nothings changed my opinion. In fact, its only gotten more harden hardened. Why . Why has that been the case . You know, i watch what the official establishment is saying over there. Theyre saying that, you know, their new economy, the servicebased economy is growing double digits while their older economy is still, quote, crashing, as per the last event i attended. The interesting thick about that, they want everyone to focus on the new economy where the Banking Systems loans are all with the old economy. And so i think that the thing that has changed in the last six to eight weeks is you had the g20 meeting in shanghai where yelin decided to go from hawkish to uber bearish or uber dovish, sorry. Moving from a hawk tore a dove weakened the dollar vesa visa sri all the others around the world. Its pushed back time. Pushed back time, thats it. Yes. Particularly people push back on your foreign reserve estimates saying youre low in terms of what you think are their estimates, i mean their reserves, excuse me, and how quickly theyll go through them. Why do you feel comfortable you have the right numbers when youre an outsider only able to deal with certain things. Its not like you speak chinese or mandarin. We do have someone that speaks mandarin that works at hay machbl however, i deal with the numbers as theyre set forth. By the way, the pbocs reported the asset side of their Balance Sheetd for many years, for more than 20 years some of the reason that we think were right and the others are wrong are really simple. One of the arguments is the cic investment is not in there, is not in the fx reserve numbers. We believe it is because in 2007 when they formed cic, they should have reduced the pbocs Balance Sheet by 200. If you look at pbocs Balance Sheet on trade, they look perfect in lockstep. Until china, the sovereign, reveals it, its all con jekture anyway. Im opinionated that were right until they prove us wrong. All right. What if they do prove you wrong . Its possible that the reserves are larger than you anticipate or do they still maintain even if the numbers larger . The currency again is the net product of the real issue and its the credit in the Banking System. So the currency is just a barometer, and i think the world seems to focus on that myopically month after month, which we actually dont really care what those balances are. We know the construct of the chinese Banking System is so difficult to understand. Its so much larger than ours was. It matches. Its four times the size of ours going into our financial crisis, so youve heard george soros say that china is in a more precarious place or say there were a lot of similarities between where they are today and where we were. I would absolutely agree with that. When you look at the structure of their system, which very few people have done. Right. Your contention or your big reveal sometime back now was that the bank system is far larger than we even are aware of and theyre far larger, correct . Thats right. And you have nothing youve been able to unearth that disproves what you believe to be a number far larger than what we were aware of . No. Do you remember our abcp facilities . All these structure investment vehicles, those blew up the u. S. Banking system . It was only 2. 5 of our system. There was a leverage though. There was an enormous amount. Its not necessarily the case, is it . But in china, its four times worse in a system thats twice as large as ours was. So, again, the construct of the system and the fact that when you look at defaults in china, there was one default in 2014, nine in 2015. There have been 16 through midapril of this year. Were on pace to do 50. Interestingly enough half have been soes and a couple have been federal soes instead of local. So this view in the marketplace that the Chinese Government in their only nip tense, in their and to make sure serving fine is one that i dont believe in and i know many of the Market Players do. So thats really our fundamental difference. Understood, but you seem to be describing it as them flipping a switch going from an industrial economy to service economy. Thats not what many expect theyre doing. The theres a transition thats going to take time. Nobody expects otherwise. If youre going to transition from an old call it industrialbased export economy export based economy to a new consumptionbased servicebased economy, what are you going to do with the old loans that are all in the Banking System to the old sector . Those are going to have to be dealt with . I guess thats also a key point. It gets back to there. The other interesting point is when you to a servicebased economy, when you look at jd. Com or you look at alibaba, those are not the same jobs and intensive businesses. Youre going with an economy where you had to come up with 20 million job as year where you have to keep a business in place to a new economy thats not capitalintensive or jobsintensive. Again, there are sin tax errors in these views in my opinion. And, finally, kyle, very quickly, japan, which is something we have talked about over the years, the yen has gotten far stronger recently. Negative rates seem to not be performing the tasks that have been hoped for. What is going on there . Kuroda is playing a game that one of my friends Mark Sunderland said only he knows what game hes playing. So far this year now you have japanese rates out past ten years, nominally negative. Yet your 3046 year rate has dropped from 30 basis points to 28 basis points. Their japanese yield curve is flat as a pancake and the mega banks are suffering and suffering dramatically. What happens when negative rates dont encourage spending . They actually cause preverse spending like denmark. The textbooks arent working for the academics, and so what happens next . I feel theyre going to have to go into some sort of jubilee where they forgive the debt. I dont know what happens. The unconventional policies arent working so theyre going have to go to unconventional. I dont know where that takes them. We can talk for a lot longer, but we stro leave it there. Kyle, thank you. Thank you, david. Kelly, i know youre thinking of it, and you, too, bill. Back to you. It ee interesting. We had been focusing on the lows in february on what was happening in china and it honestly seems like the political events have turned what everybody has thought of that now seems to be a memory of the past. As we always say, fed policy is like pushing on a string. You cannot predict what markets will do. You can cant control them to some degree. Thaerng y thank you. Were going to head to the close. Dow down. Moving lower. Clorox a bright spart. Thats due to an earnings beat and rates guidance. Meantime it turned out Parliament Hill was a horror show for hedge funds, many of which were deep in the red. Up next well look at the biggest losers and whether the two in 20 Fee Structure is in jeopardy coming up. Welcome back. Dow keeps moving lower. Its down 140 points. The s p is down 18 and nasdaq down squarely about 48 points. Health systems are tumbling too. Its down more than 5 . Reported disappointing earnings, and that was followed by a bank of America Merrill lynch downgrade. The price target cut down. Shares of valeant, meanwhile, are spiking after Standard Poors and moody adopted the drugmakers outlook. Just shy of the 36 mark. This following the release of the long overd

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