Transcripts For CNBC Closing Bell 20160705 : vimarsana.com

CNBC Closing Bell July 5, 2016

Well look at the geopolitical impact. The question is unproven reserves. How do you count an unproven reserve . Unproven exactly. Well ask about that coming up. Plus, the fbi announcing today it will not recommend any criminal charges for democratic president ial candidate Hillary Clinton. And she is about to speak along with president obama. Theyre at a Campaign Rally in charlotte, North Carolina. Well take you there live momentarily. Lets start with the u. S. And uk banks under pressure. Bob pisani . Hello, william. You throw in the slow growth and zero, essentially zero bond yields and problems for the banks. Once again, after rallying briefly last week, the uk banks are weak. Barclays down 5 . Same thing looking at rbs. Come on over here, vinny. Down 8. 3 as you can see here on top of the declines that we saw earlier in the week. If you take a look at how much weve been down in the last six the brexit announcement back on the june, june 23rd. B b barclays down and most of the banks get a very large part, in fact, the majority of their revenues from the united kingdom. Barrelclays about half of their revenues from the uk. Rbs and lloyds, substantial majority, lloyds 100 of the revenues from the uk. Now, some dont think its such a big issue. The drop in property prices, may not be a big issue because Mortgage Rates remain low and today a problem here because Standard Life suspended trading in the Uk Property Fund due to rapid cash outflows, of course, a big insurer and asset manager there and the Management Insurance group down on that concerns and assure you also weighing on the banks, as well. Meantime, here in the u. S. , regional banks are having problems today. Mostly zions. Fifth third with a downgrade. Regions financial, comerica. Most of those down double digits since the brexit vote was announced at the end of june. Guys, back to you. All right. Bob, thank you for now. Now the heart of what could be the next crisis. Italian banks. Michelle has more. Hey there, italian banks have issues. Take a look at the ftse bank index for a year, down 56 year to date and a large portion of that happening in the wake of brexit. Italian banks need more capital. This was crystallized in the last 24 hours learning that the ecb told the worlds oldest bank in italy that it needed to do even more to get rid of large numbers of nonperforming loans. Not a meaningful bank to americans but a symbol of bigger problem in italy. The Banking System needs more capital because the Banking System is burdened with bad loans calling them nonperforming loans. However, if you want to do any kind of recapitalization with government money, cant do it anymore based on eu rules. The ability to do that expired on january 1. Now the way they have to do bailouts coming to banks they have to punish bondholders and in italy it turns out theres a lot of mom and pops who own a lot of subordinated and junior debt in banks, weaker debt. Where they could lose a lot of money and politically untenable in italy and trying to figure out if theres a way do get around this while still injecting capital in the banks. Italy has wanted to do this, get an exemption to the rules. Germany doesnt want to. If i tallian bondholders lose a lot of money, you have individuals unhappy with the eu and rules and thats how they would see it, guys. Raises another question about a threat to the structure of the european union. And its why the comments bare watching, michelle. Now out of those officials and german officials, seems like wink and nod to let italy support the banks only way out of this. Well, so theres in theory some compromise they can come up with. What italy tried to argue is that brexit one of these big systemic events that, therefore, justifies an exemption to the rule and within the rules they allow exemptions for events and germany has said we think thats a disingenuous way to try to get around the rules. But you know how it is with the eu. Push comes to shove and then you see some kind of big systemic event or as they have seen it, they have changed their tune in the past. At least two pundits said this morning, can you blame Great Britain wanting to leave the eu . You will have a friend that needs to borrow money again and again and again. And why put up with that . Exactly. And they would point to italy saying, listen, italy has not reformed in ways it needed. Had years to do so. Took too long and why be on the hook for that . All right. Thank you. Thanks. Lets get to the Closing Bell Exchange for this tuesday that feels like a monday. Edmond shing, we have kenny polcari, here at the New York Stock Exchange and Rick Santelli from chicago. Kenny p. , doing a victory lap today. You made the call only friday. You saw it coming here but we discussed it with a disconnect of what the stocks telling us and what the bond market, gold was telling and so, you know, we discussed that disconnect and something had to give. Today its stocks that are giving, right . It was a long weekend here. Certainly a lot more news over the weekend. Italian banking crisis not helping it. The word out of the ecb, i mean the bank of england this morning, cut the rate to zero and stand tall to support, the fed will support and the boj. What that says is things are not add good as we thought and a bigger problem and rates stay lower longer and in the end thats not really a bullish, bullish story. Right ahead of Second Quarter earnings suspect at best. Hey, rick, are you able to get a mortgage in this country less than 3 . You know, probably. Or at least maybe close. But, you know, i dont know that its a good thing but i dont know thats the important thing in any of these. Yes, Mortgage Rates are going down. But lets really take a look. You had all these central bankers around the world basically telling the investigators like the italian investors and michelle said, the mom and pops that bought into their sovereign market, and they have said, listen, you know, well take you on the freeway of the fix it freeway and do things to fix these problems and after all these years, the problems are not fixed and a bailin . This is a brexit . Its the same dynamic. Michelles been talking about this all day. The people that are in charge take you on a road to fix something and end all on bailin land. This is in italy and france. And im telling you. The spotlight should not be on the uk even though its important to monitor the uk, especially at some point and i think sooner rather than later finding out the european side terms of the divorce. But right now, this is all about a 126 yield and italian paper. 10 basis cheaper than our historic low in the 10year at 136. We are playing russian roulette in the sovereign markets and to kenny, i understand what hes saying. The fixed Market Pricing in weakness. Now theres an anvil and rates are going down and not so sure how that translates into equity moves on any given day. Edmond, what do you do with the uk market at this early stage of the Brexit Process . Do you wait until you understand more fully when article 50 is going to be invoked . The terms . That could take forever. What do you do in the meantime . I think actually when you look particularly at the ftse 100 index, the benchmark index for the uk, you shouldnt worry too much because its probably the most global index in the developed markets in the world, so from that point of view, the exposure not so much to the uk economy but the global uk thinking about pharmaceuticals, oil and gas and mining and really youre not buying a whole lot of exposure to the uk economy so in that case why are you so worried . In many ways this could be bizarrely good thing for the companys because the share prices in pounds, the earnings abroad and when they bring those earnings back to the uk, theyre left with more pounds now. Ill tell you what people are worried about. Uk Banking System. What do you do . Mr. Osborne to talk about the big tax cut of sorts and all kinds of important developments are still to occur. I get the global view that youre giving but for those companies that have the most exposure to the english economy right now, do you take the risk now or do you wait and what do you wait for . I would certainly wait. I think if youre talking about banks such as royal bank of scotland, lloyds or Real Estate Companies and very domestic or even homebuilders and clearly domestic, those sectors clearly its a time to wait. Since the brexit announcement, they havent performed markedly and far too early to tell because the risk we have here, sentiment in the uk collapsed on the domestic side in terms of consumer confidence, industrial and Business Confidence and we have no clue how long that is going to take to revert to mead. We could see a headlong slide into recession caused by uk themselves and purely brexit reasons other than macro. But that in itself is affecting the sectors quite heavily and theres no telling where these earnings fall out. All right. We have to go at this point. Gentlemen, that thank you all. Interesting conversation today. Appreciate it. With about 50 minutes to go, interesting developments in the markets there. Theres the vix up by a point and a half. The transports down 125 points today. Kind of taking what we saw last week, the strong stock gains, the gains in oil and flipping all of that around. Oils weaker. The dow down 127. S p down 18. Airlines stocks and tesla, all declining today. Phil lebeau will tell us whats dragging down some of the biggest names in transportation and space coming up. Also, coming up well head live to charlotte, North Carolina, where Hillary Clinton is expected to deliver remarks any moment now. Could be interesting in the wake of fbi director comb ris remarks she was extremely careless in the handling of email as secretary of state and would not recommend criminal charges against her. Well follow that for you. Youre watching cnbc, first in business worldwide. Thank you is what we say. But we mean so much more. We mean how can we help . We mean what can we do . We mean its our turn. To do our part. To serve you, for all youve done to serve us. Welcome back. As you see the dow down 133 following last weeks rally that was the best week the market seen in two years. Ten of the 30 dow components are higher today. Johnson johnson leading the way but Companies Like jpmorgan are among the laggards today down more than 3 . Transports, weaker today, too. Delta airlines, latest profit market guidance putting a drag on the space. Phil . You saw the Airline Stocks right there, all looking really bad today primarily in sympathy of delta today warning about Profit Margins for the Second Quarter and a couple of things and said it ended some of the fuel hedges early so thats going to weigh on Profit Margins and passenger unit revenue, everybodys warning about it. Deltas saying in the Second Quarter down 5 . Whats ailing delta is ailing all of the airlines. More flights, more seats, thats hurting airline profits. Theres a glut of seats especially on the lower end and as a result fares are not rising. And theyre not keeping up with all the expenses that are there and so you had the cheaper seats bringing down passenger revenue. Take a look at the airline index. Down 12 in the last year and the three or four months brutal for the airlines and people are sitting there saying whens the bottom in terms of the passenger revenue . Arent we supposed to be in the high traffic time of the year . Or is this before we are in the high traffic, traffic is up and more seats than capacity so wait a minute. That says that the glass is half empty but if you look at it half full, demand is not as strong as they were anticipating or am i wrong about that . The problem is theyre expecting greater demand than capacity growth. Theyre not seeing that right now and the capacity added on the lower end. You have a lot of carrier who is are dumping seats, not dumping but cutting the prices on these seats on the lower end and weighing on passenger revenue. I see. What about tesla . Stock down today. More problems mounting up for the company. Down to more than 1. 5 right now. Yeah. We were talking about this earlier today and like groundhog dog and tesla, this is the second time now that tesla has come out and said our quarterly deliveries are not keeping up with the estimates that were out there from the company itself or from analysts. There you see the numbers delivering 14,370 vehicles, well short of what estimate at 17,000 vehicles. The reason this is important is when you look at their fullyear guidance, tesla is sticking with the guidance of delivering between 80,000 and 90,000 vehicles. Guys, this means they have to deliver more than 50,000 vehicles in the last 6 months of this year. Tesla says it can get there increasing the weekly production. First to 2,200 a week and then 2,400 a week and one more thing weighing on shares of tesla and why it was down more than 3 for most of the day. Its come back a little bit now. I wonder, phil, if most investors expect to hit the tar gets. Didnt seem to matter in the past when they havent. And tesla doesnt think they meet the goal, somewhere in the august time frame you might see them guide a little bit lower. Teslas not indicating that they have any plan to do and very adamant to bring up production to 2,200 vehicles a week and meet that target of 80,000 vehicles. It would appear that reality is catching up with elon musks ambitions to some degree there. I guess. Phil, thanks very much. See you later. You bet. 40 minutes to go here. Keeping an eye on stocks. We have sort of sunk near session lows moving through the session today and sat there which is interesting. Seen in the past sometimes the european markets close and lifts the pressure. But the dows down 120. S p down 17. The nasdaq down 50. As you may loved your refinanced mortgage and banks are losing big money. Waiting for Hillary Clinton who will be speaking at that Campaign Stop with the president in charlotte, North Carolina. Well find out if she plans to address fbi director comb mys announcement this morning that the fbi would not recommend criminal charges in her handling of classified information by email. Thats coming up here on the closing bell. Stay tuned. Move stuff, what are you working on . Let me show you. Okay. Our thinkorswim Trading Platform aggregates all the options data you need in one place and lets you visualize that information for any options series. Okay, cool. Hang on a second. You can even see the anticipated range of a stock expecting earnings. Impressive. Whats up, tim. Td ameritrade. On their auto insurance. Wouldnt a deal involve two parties discussing something . A little give . A little take . Because last time you checked, your rate was just, whatever they say it is. Why not give you some say in the matter . Or even better let your driving do the talking. Liberty mutual righttrack finally puts you in control of your rates. All you have to do is connect, drive and save. In fact, safe driving could save you up to 30 . With 5 off just for signing up. For righttrack. And the discount is good for the life of your policy. To get started, visit a local office or call Liberty Mutual today at take control of your rates. Visit a local office or call see Car Insurance in a whole new light. Liberty Mutual Insurance welcome back. Plenty of alltime highs today, even as you see markets sinking. A lot of them in the consumer space. Pepsi, j j. Places you can look, for example, to still find stocks of investors piling in and a different story of apple today. Take a look. Lower along with the chip supplier. Pacific crest cutting t. Citing weaker supply forecast. This is a big thorn in apples side. Shares down little more than 1 . All right. As we mentioned, waiting for Hillary Clinton to make a First Campaign appearance with president obama. They are in charlotte, North Carolina, right now. John harwood joins us here. Josh earnest at the white house said the president doesnt plan to announce fbi director comb mys statement of recommendation of no criminal charges against mrs. Clinton over the email. I imagine she wont either, right . Right. We dont have the determination and signaled last week after the controversy on the airport tarmac with former president bill clinton she would be accepting the recommendation of career professionals and not the way that either Hillary Clinton or president obama wanted this day to unfold. They wanted this to be the time where president obama hit the trail for her, helped her consolidate democratic support. Began making robust arguments on her behalf in a state of North Carolina he carried once and lost a second time. Instead, that meeting will be underscored for the awkwardness of a situation of president obamas fbis director has just while ab solving from his point of view Hillary Clinton from the possibility of criminal charges, strongly criticized her, what he called extremely carelessness of managing Sensitive Information of president obamas former secretary of state so its a one would hope to know what was said on the airplane, on air force one down to North Carolina. Were not going to get that, of course. And do not expect well hear about this from president obama or secretary of state clinton, but their event today is overshadowed by the comb my announcement. Also, john, i wonder about the impact of what more we learned as is pointed o

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