The economy are most at risk if there is a trade war. And companies warning last months global cyber attack is actually having an impact on their financials weve got the details on which companies are being hit. Meanwhile, can a superhero save the Summer Box Office season in the new superman movie is out today well tell you whats riding on that film and an analyst who says exposure to movies is a risk for some media companies. Well tell you which ones. Spiderman versus wonder woman and the fight for the box office. So far so far wonder woman go the is dominating bigtime this summer and our not surprised . No, about time we had a female superhero start with stocks moving higher on the back of todays jobs number. The junes job report may have come in much stronger than expected but the Federal Reserve is expressing some concerns about wage growth right now. Ylan mui, another super woman. The fed flagged the problem in the Monetary Policy report to congress which was released ahead of yellens tim on the hill next week, and it says that despite the broadbased strength and measures of employment wage growth has been only modest. The federal also called out inflation which it says has softened some in recent months now, this recent report was put together before the june jobs numbers came out but that underscored the report on wages. They linked it to low productitivity growth but not just in the u. S. But around the world. A few potential explanations that the fed dives into the report, the Robert Gordon theory that todays technology isnt that transformative, that the Global Financial crisis has kept workers from moving into more productive firms and forced companies to cut r d spending. Maybe its the slowdown in global trade whatever the reerng the fed still is he is tabt to say that this is the new normal, but it warned if this trend continues, it could halfer the feds ability to stimulate the economy even in a shallow recession. Back over to you. Ylan, thank you please dont go anywhere we also want to bring into this conversation cnbc economics reporter Steve Liesman, Jeff Cleveland and cnbc senior contributor larry kudlow so now weve got a debate. The fed sort of in between a rock and a hard place. Wall street expects them to keep going with hiking ates, but were not seeing a whole lot of inflation, and we saw that in the wage growth numbers. I agree 100 . By the way, more people working more hours does not cause inflation. Thats a good thing, not a bad thing, all right prosperity does not cause inflation, so, therefore, i conclude and it was good jobs numbers the fed should restrain its restraint. They should go very, very slowly here. Dont you think they will anyway i dont know. Its hard to know most economists are saying expect another hike. Of course, expect another hike if you look at forwardlocking market price indicators of inflation, gold, the dollar, commodity baskets, yield curves, spreads, i dont see any indications of inflation whatsoever inflation is too much money chasing too few goods. Its a monetary phenomenon its not about working and, therefore, as long as the market indicators are calm and steady, i say to the fed halt your fire and wait andwait for Corporate Tax cuts. I know you want to take the other side steve. I want to associate moy remarks with with my thoughts with the comments of my colleague larry kudlow and point out we use this term wrong we say Wage Inflation as a proxy for wage increases only wage growth, that is, bigger or higher or greater than productivity growth is potentially but not necessarily inflationary we should not go directly from higher wages to fears of inflation. This is key just to clarify, real quick. I dont want to get too deep into the weeds on this. Because people are getting language wrong first of all, wages are not rising rapidly what really rose in this employment worked was hours work which is terrific, by the way, terrific and im just saying to steves point and we do agree on this, only if the fed monetizes wage increases, and they are not. Theres no evidence in the market indicators, even the oldfashioned money supply is only grow at 5 , 6 . This is nothing going on here. The fed should restrain its restraint. Steve, you know, i as you know, my degree wasnt in economics, but i did get an a in the class i too, and they always told us that full employment would lead to wage increases. Is it balls of the hours worked increases that were not getting Wage Inflation look, im sorry, bill, but your textbook was correct for a textbook but not necessarily for the real world we dont really know why when you look at whats happening with unemployment and whats happening with wages theres a much bigger gap than you see. You can see right there the other times that unemployment was this low, its a very simple supply and demand equation as the supply of labor goes down, the price of it goes up, so you should have higher wages. But look at that gap to the right side it could be because its the new technological global world it could be because older folks are retiring younger folks are coming on to the payrolls at lower wages. That could be all part of it we dont necessarily know for sure we know that you should be in a situation of higher wage gains than weve been having at the given Unemployment Rate and it may be something thats yet to come. Steve, i thought it was interesting that the feds did not include that sort of baby boomers blaming blaming baby boomers as the problem in their Monetary Policy report they left out that whole demographic argument as among reasons why wage growth has been so tepid, though it seems like thats one you cannot ignore demographics are simply perhaps moving in a way in which productivity is going to be lower. Ylan, i think whats happening at fed is bigger and broader than that right now. I think they are rethinking the inflation dynamic that they know. Oh. When i interviewed the chicago fed. You know, what he said to me was, look, theres all this other stuff going on and we ought to be thinking about it i think that one of the things hang on, hang on. One of the things the fed ought to do is create inflation. They have been incapable of essentially doing that for several years, and i think we all want to come back and reexamine this. Jeff cleveland, like youre at an italian family dinner. Youve got to jump in here, buddy. Youre saying the fed should just move ahead with rate hikes, right . I think whats happening here is everyone is falling over themselves to try to explain the past inflation has been low it may just be that were now getting to the point where the labor market is getting tighter. Recently got to 4. 4 on the Unemployment Rate ant when we get there well see wage growth pick up. Were not seeing it in average Hourly Earnings yet. We are seeing it in the wage tracker, the atlanta fed wage tracker which is up 3. 5 , so i think were seeing some incipient signs that the wage growth will pick up. This is good, this is good. This is old stuff. Its never worked and its not going to work again. Look, more people working and prospering does not cause inflation. That is a goal to be desired, not shunned. Monetary policy affects inflation. If the fed is creating too much money and youll see it in a crashing dollar, in a soaring gold price, in soaring commodities, none of which do we see, that means this is all fine heres the opening to the fed. I want them to normal irksz okay business, tax cuts, by the way, the Congress Must not go home in august they must stay and give me a business tax cut. Six minutes to bring up business tax cuts. This is a segment we knew was going to come. An increase in business tax cuts will increase the economy and real Interest Rates and the federal follows the real Interest Rate tire and well normalize, but just on the face of it, just because some people are work, that is no reason to tighten policy, im sorry. Jeff, ill ask you the final question just to move this forward. Beyond the debate of will they or wont they because they will make the decision without our panel no. Is there a risk though if they do tighten more this year and raise Interest Rates and start shrinking the Balance Sheet prematurely before they see the whites of inflations eyes as weve heard before is that risky for the economy and the market no. I think the economy is in great shape. Thats what you see in this report weve seen no slowdown, sara, in job growth 180,000 average monthly rate which is almost exactly like last year. Larry, im not seeing wages cause inflation. Im saying wages will pick up here its better for the consumer, consumer incomes run which are good for the economy. Right. Good for stocks. Right. So this is a good argument. No, no, hold on though, guys. I know we have to go ive got to wrap this it up at some point. Serious underlying issues here the idea that wages are not going up, the inequality issues, serious economic issues. Its not an inflation problem, but it is a problem. Were creating too many incentives, and a lot of these social programs. A lot of people are out of the workforce who should be back into the workforce thats a different subject, i know. And now were getting way off. The former Federal Reserve governor, friend of mine, may be the next fed chair for all we know kevin has repeatedly said the Federal Reserve should stop obsessioning about these labor market indicators and should start watching commodity market indicators and open market bond indicators when you look at those indicators, there is no inflation. Well, corn and soybean are jumping big here these days. You just said xhotdity prices. All right the index, the index, the basket the crb spots, the crb futures, gold, dollar look, the yield curve is flat. None of that stuff is showing to kind of break out what were all looking at dont kill the economy wait until the tax cuts come and then the fed can move. Thats what they should be hoping for let america prosper. If were waiting for a tax cut well be waiting a really long time. Ylan, the problem with your view is you may be right, and that is why that is why were going to come back there are 25 calendar days in august they should use them no august vacation no vacay we have staycay. That means stay at home and work and if they do staycay well get a Good Business tax cut, the economy will rise and Interest Rates will normalize and the dollar will strengthen and america will be great. It dont rain in indianapolis in the summertime. Somebody, please pass the garlic bread. Weve got to go here appreciate it. Good to be. See you later that was fun. Now to the markets ray dalio from Bridgewater Associates thinks that the Central Bank Party could be over soon he wrote about that on his newest linkedin post. Central bankers have clearly and understandably told us that henceforth those flows from the punch bowl will be tapered rather increased, and our responsibility now is to keep dancing and closer to the exit and with a sharp eye on the tea leaves a lot of metaphors to work with there. So what impact could all of that have on your Investment Strategy lets get to our Closing Bell Exchange mike gibbs is director of equity portfolio strategy at raymond james. Keith bliss from katonin companies somewhere out there on the New York Stock Exchange and Jack Bouroudjian playing the part of Rick Santelli, cofounder and xheef chist at universal economist. Others have made the same comment that Monetary Policy is no longer a tailwind, is becoming a headwind and here we sit with a is hundredpoint rally on the dow today and the stock market is near alltime highs. So is that not yet a headwind for equities in. The proof is not in the pudding yet for me yet they have raised Interest Rates three times since december and financial conditions have done nothing but ease the dollar has depreciated, the tenyear rate has been staying to its downtrend line going back 20 years, trading up the last couple of days but still trading below 2. 3 and the equity market is raging at alltime highs. I dont see Monetary Policy. Yellen said, always very god about telegraphing what they are going to do about months in advance and very open about that and so far hasnt done anything. The word were starting to hear out of fed speak now is they are worried about asset bubbles. Thats the excuse that they are going to use to go ahead and keep raising Interest Rates, and its really all about financial conditions people need to focus on that the Dollar Strength where the tenyear trades and where the equity market is, it still shows that money is flowing very freely in the market, a little too much for the feds liking, and thats why they are going to raise Interest Rates listening to the Italian Dinner Party before, it really has nothing to do with the Unemployment Rate, wage pressures, wage gains. Its all about the financial conditions people need to focus on that, ant market is, and the market is okay with it at this point in time they are going to march on and probably raise another 25 in december they will keep doing that and thats just the way it is in the equity market. Well take it. Im not sure that the market is okay with it, and im not sure that this is only about the Federal Reserve. Dalio indicated it was global Central Banks and thats really the story of the last week or so we saw the synchronized global bond move selling off, yields higher, stocks wobbling around the world. Is that how you see it jack . Absolutely. Sara, you can even say what ray dalio is saying they have been taking the syringe away. Weve been pumping the patient with steroid injections now for years, and when you start to take the medicine away, what happens is that patient goes through withdrawals. Were going to start seeing the global economies go through some volatility thats the withdrawal part of it it now the bottom line though is that what were looking at is the situation, and Rick Santelli has been talking about it time and time again, that youve got onethird of the sovereign fed controlled by the federal banks. This is a ma nip late market if we had onethird of any market controlled by any entity we would be talking about it as if it was a monopoly at some point so what we really need to do suns that this fed is now draining the system. The Central Banks around the world are ready to drain, and if thats taking place, then we have to be prepared for it, an as ray dalio was saying, weve got to be very, very close to the exits. Look, you know, this market has gone up 20 . You cant go broke taking a profit probably is a good time to start monetizing some of those gains into this rally. And mike gibbs, you know, yields have been rising here recently, and the bank stocks have come up as well is it time to buy the financials here finally, do you think i like the financials weve liked the financials all along. You notice the yield curves have steepened a little bit and financial have come up 90 correlated to the ten your over the last year, and i think yields will continually push higher, and i think the financial go higher. Financials have good earnings momentum behind them the Regulatory Environment is coming down, and i do think that they are an area we like and an area i would continue to purchase. All right, gentlemen, we have to go. The spaghetti dinner has crowded us out a little pitt here but thank you all for your thoughts on todays Market Action have the a good weekend. Same to you. Meantime, a news alert on uber whats going on . Hey, bill, the drama continues this time in ubers lawsuit with alphabet, the Autonomous Car division waymo. Waymo has dropped three of its four Patent Infringement claims against uber waymo tells us this will narrow the focus of its lawsuit which after all is largely over trade secrets, not patents irish says the latest development is a sign that waymo cant make its case. Included in its statement a spokesperson says, quote, faced with the hard truth, waymo has resorted to floating conspiracy theories not rooted in fact, doing everything they can to put the focus on sensation rather than substance those are fighting words, guys, and certainly not the last that youll hear from either side to remind you that this is the case that centers on a former Google EngineerAnthony Levandowski that went over to lead uber to its Driverless Car Company and waymo alleges he took proprietary technology with him which was later used in the Autonomous Car process this goes to a jury later this year waymo says we look forward to trial. And the jawboning has just begun here thanks very much see you later. 43 minutes left in the trading session. Its been a pretty good day for the bulls so far to close out what has been a pretty volatile woke for the equity markets. They were all flat i think. Started the week with a real and were ending it right now. Bouncing back from yesterdays big logs of a percent. Exactly, which was taking u just above the unchanged level for the week here. President trump did meet with russian presid