Bill, youre back. Of course. Weve just started without you here, mandy. Im bill griffeth. Lets find out who made money on wall street. Im still getting dressed here. Ralph is our mentor here. And theres our own rick santelli. So we just got started here. What do you think of this market . Im ecstatic. Youre ecstatic . Yes. Is that beyond bullish . Yonbeyond bullish. If bad news cant take you down, thats good news. For the past couple weeks, thats all weve been getting. And the market is working its way higher. Its not only in the states. Its around the world whether it be hong kong, the dax or the cac. Everybody is saying theyll compromise. One way or another, washington will compromise. You talking fundamentals here. We have to find out what the reason is its going up. It has to be that. Dan, are you ecstatic or more sober on whats happening . Im a little more cautious. I totally agree with ralph that the Market Action today is terrific this year on bad news. I think the next six months are going to be very tricky. I think the fiscal cliff uncertainty is going to continue t actually. So im a little more bearish in the near term. Then i think its a selloff, if there is one, that should be bought aggressively for a rally in the end of 2013 that would be the beginning of a new bull market. When you say a rally towards the end of next year, do you think over the course of 2013 its going to end higher . Were going to be higher than where we are right now . Yeah, i mean, i think ultimately 2013 ends up higher at the end. I think were going to go were going to test some lower resistance in the first six, seven months of the year. We have so much uncertainty in washington. We do have slowing economies in europe and in the u. S. Right. David, what do you say right now . Break the tie for us. Break the tie. In the near term, theres an epic tug of war between extremely aggressive monetary easing and just total disdain for what theyre doing in washington on tax and regulatory policy. In the near term, the fiscal cliff prevails. In the longer term, the fed will prevail. Theres so much mistrust on stocks that i think that still can be a positive catalyst for stocks relative to traditional bonds over the next 12 months. Im going to push back a little bit on that. Im going to break the tie in ralphs favor. David, i want to push back a little bit on that. In terms of like, is the fed really that much of a factor these days now in terms of keeping the market afloat . Absolutely. Its not losing its bang for its buck . Its not as powerful as it was in the fall of 2008 or even 2010, but when you consider that, u. S. , long bonds, 1. 5 . Shortterm interest rates, zero. Negative on an inflation adjusted basis. The cost of capital is so low. I firmly believe in my lifetime this is the most aggressive fed easing well see in the last 5i years. Thats whats so powerful. I think he just hit the ball into your court. I dont know how to say it anymore than that. I dont know how much more it could be aggressive. Rick santelli, rates bounced today. We hit a low on the tenyear around 157. Now its at 162. It was higher than that earlier. Whats going on in the treasury markets today . Were a whopping half a basis point higher than we were this time on friday of last week. When all is said and done, right . I agree with whoever said the fed is powerful. Oh, theyre powerful. Theyre the largest shareholder of treasuries in the world. They print money very fast. They buy it from the treasury. Theyre running out of Mortgage Securities to buy. Oh, certainly theyre powerful. If youre one of the lucky institutions that owns things like Mortgage Securities, youre pretty happy. If youre an average guy trying to get a mortgage, try to get that appraisal to go along with the financing. Good luck to you on that. In terms of who did it best this week, citi up 10 on slashing 11,000 jobs. The morality of it, i feel sorry for people losing their jobs, but this is one of those stories where i guess a little bit of austerity was rewarded because at some point, everybodys got to pay the piper. You would think so. Ralph, quantify your bullishness for us, if you can. A lot of houses on the street putting out their forecast for 2013 have been pretty bullish. They see this market as undervalued. They feel once we get the fiscal cliff out of the way that the market will be able to, you know, some of the cash comes back. What does that mean to you if youre bullish as well or ecstatic, as you said. In terms of the dow, im looking out about six months or so, into the first half of the year. I think that will be the bulk of the move. I think the dow could easily get to 15,000. In six months . Yeah. Okay. S p . S p is around, what, 1500. Its at 1416 today. Yeah. 1418. A little over 1600. And is this the beginning of a new secular trend in the market . Is this a cyclical bounce . No, no, no. You have to stand back and take a long look at whats happened. Not day to day. March 2009 low was a generational bottom. We are in a secular bull market. So were just extending it. Well have periods of corrections, which we had. Well even have bear markets. I dont think well ever get back to the lows of 2009. Therefore, its up, up, and away. The lifeline of this market is rotation. Look at were losing the technology and getting financials. Perfect. All right. Dan look, i agree. Youre going to sell him what he wants to buy . I agree with the bullishness longer term. I think in the next, you know, zero to nine months, its more like a fiscal cliff and were b bungee jumping. The markets have done well. The fundamentals in Corporate America have been way better than the economy. Earnings growth and Revenue Growth in the s p 500 has dramatically slowed since the second quarter. I think unfortunately one thing people are missing is that the uncertainty today is going to show up in the fundamentals in the first quarter, maybe even the first half of 2013. We still have a lot of issues in europe. Andrea merkel has to get elected in the second half of next year. Thats going to make it difficult for any progrowth solutions to appear in europe. I think, frankly, im not that confident that the market hasnt already positively priced in a fiscal cliff resolution. I think the first half is like a bungee jump. So dan, cut through all of that, right. If we could put aside trying to forecast where the s p is going to be, where the dow is going to be, regardless of where the markets in general are going to be, i believe you have stock picks for us. Name what they are and will they be able to perform regardless of the macro environment . All right. We are focused on. Companies that can grow regardless of what happens in the economy. Three stocks we like, one is denbury resources. Whats interesting about them is they have hedged their forward sales of oil so the lowest theyre going to receive is 80 next year. At those rates, theyre going to be a very profitable company. Its a very inexpensive stock. We like that. Its a u. S. Oil producer as well. We like that. Link linkedin, we think attracted as much attention as it should. Theyre executing very well in the professional business social networking sense. In particular, head hunters across the globe. This is now the method of head hunting. Finally, an Enterprise SoftwareDesign Company used in making semiconductor chips. We see them as providing a very stable and growing play on Technology Without necessarily having to pick, you know, end winners. Got it. Thank you. Very good, guys. Thank you all for joining us today. Rick, good luck with the reappraisal on your property there, whatever youre going through. Dan, ralph, thrilled to see you. Thank you. So the dow hits its first threeweek winning streak since august. Apple upsetting weekly gains for the nasdaq. Bob is going to join us with a look at the weeks winners and losers. What do we have . The important thing is we had a rally going into the close. Lets look at the breakdowns. Even though we didnt move much on the indices, some of the major sectors did. Im talking financials. Citigroups announcement about layoffs, not good for them or the employees, but good for the stock. Hart ford also up on the week. I know everybody is obsessed with apple. Yes, apple is down 9 , but look at dell, hewlettpackard. They turned around. Dell bottomed out two weeks ago. Now ten and change. Same thing with hewlettpackard. Lets talk about breakdowns. How about gold stocks . What an ugly year, what an ugly week. Still moving down here. Gold stocks are not only underperforming the stock market, theyre underperforming gold as well. You want to get out of these now. Stock of the week, my opinion, im going with freeportmcmoran. There you see the stock for the week. Finally, here we are. The major averages, pretty much unchanged. Notice that the outperforming the s p 500. Thats because some of the higher priced stocked did better. Apple weighed down the s p and nasdaq. Guys, have a good weekend. No one wraps it up like you do, bob. Have a great weekend as well. See you mondays. House Speaker John Boehner says fiscal cliff talks remain stuck in neutral. The president insist on his position. Insist on my way or the highway. Well, going over that highway and the fiscal cliff would kill thousands of jobs, especially in the Defense Sector and the head of a defense contractor who will feel that pain joins us next along with former vermont governor howard dean who argues maybe going over the fiscal cliff will be the best thing for the nation. Later, we have the former chairman of the council of economic advisers under president bush. Hes going to join us as well as laura tyson, the former head of the cea under president clinton. Were going to get their take on the cliff and todays jobs number. Also, tough week for apple shares. Is now the time to load up . Stick around for the apple trade in the back half of this hour. Stay tuned. [ male announcer ] when this hotel added aflac to provide a Better Benefits package. Oahhh [ male announcer ] it made a big splash with the employees. [ duck yelling ] [ male announcer ] find out more at. [ duck ] aflac [ male announcer ]. Forbusiness. Com. Ha ha one of my next guests thinks that going over the fiscal cliff would be a good thing for wall street. The other says defense cuts would pose an unacceptable risk to the economy, National Security, and her company. She is ceo and vice chairman of rti national metals. And howard dean should be joining us any minute now. In the meantime, thank you so much for joining us today, dawn. Tell us exactly how going over the fiscal cliff would impact the Defense Industry. Well, the fiscal cliff would just be something that would be disastrous for defense. What you have are all these cuts of sequestration that are not tied to any National Security plan or program. These would just be across the board with no plan involved. You have not only the major defense contractors but the entire supply chain involved. Personalize it for us, dawn. What would it do specifically to your company . Well, for us, were a supplier not only to defense but also in the commercial markets, energy, and medical. It has already caused this uncertainty, roadw uncertainty, a reduction in the amount of work were doing, and its prevented us from hiring in some of our plants. Youre holding back, then. Youre holding back on hiring, waiting to see how this thing plays itself out. Presuming they dont go over the cliff, they come to some agreement, does that mean you would hire more workers . Right now its very frustrating that we dont have issues decided here. So, yes, we have plants that can be ramping up to supply in the Defense Industry. Until we know with certainty whats going to happen with the cuts, were not going to be hiring in those plants. Were going to bring in now howard dean, who i believe is joining us. Thank you for joining us. I hope that youve also been listening to what dawn had to say. Shes been basically saying it would hurt her company. Its already affecting her hiring decisions. It would hurt the Defense Industry as well. So why do you feel that going over the fiscal cliff would be good . We have an enormous deficit problem in the united states. Nobodys dealt with it since bill clinton was president of the united states. There are a number of things were going to have to do in order to meet our deficit. Were going to have to both raise taxes and cut spending. One of the areas we must cut spending is defense. There hasnt been serious cuts in defense in 30 years. The Defense Industry is well positioned. They have plants in something in over 300 districts. Theres a lot of bipartisan defense spending. For example, the Defense Authorization bill that just passed yesterday in the senate gave the pentagon 17 billion more than they asked for. So to think that any industry or any taxpayer or any group of people who depend on Government Spending can be exempted from the serious problem that we have thats caused by this deficit is a mistake. Everybody is going to have to pay for this. Dawn, right or wrong, the Defense Industry has this reputation of being bloated, overcharging. Are we at a point where we could afford to make cuts in defense spending to try and satisfy the needs of lowering the deficit in this country . You know, the real issue weve already seen through the budget control act, the defense has already witnessed significant cuts. I think when youre looking at the resolution here, resolving the negotiations so we dont go to the fiscal cliff, the real issue is everybodys got to participate. Its got to be a balanced approach. Last monday well, earlier this week, 130 ceos in the aerospace Defense Industry sent a letter to the president saying were urging a bipart son approach to this. Its got to be balanced. Nobody is saying that defense isnt going to share in that. Right now, sequestration, 600 billion, thats not a fair share. Can i phrase this a different way . Will we still be safe . Will we still have good National Security if there are defense cuts . I think secretary panetta has already addressed his concerns that if, you know, we have this sequestration where you have 600 billion in cuts that take place on january 1st and go into effect, thats going to have a significant risk on our National Security. Hourward, go ahead. I have to object to this sort of thing. Every cabinet officer is going to want their area exempted. The fact of the matter is that everybody has to participate. This is, in fact, a bipartisan agreement. This was a bipartisan agreement in order to put the debt ceiling back on track a year and a half ago. What you see is predictable. At the last minute when the agreement is about to take place, now individual special interests come in and want their money, including many of the republicans and democrats who voted for this in the first place. Im very sympathetic with the Defense Industry. Im sympathetic with seniors on medicare. Im certainly sympathetic with the 100,000 kids who are going to lose their head start. We have got to do something about the deficit in this country. You cannot take the position that, well, pi Industry Needs to be exempted from this. Or the defense will suffer. Everything will suffer. We will make do. Were a great country, but the biggest danger to this country is not cuts to the defense department. The biggest danger Going Forward is a deficit thats going to approach 80 or 90 of gdp. If i could respond, nobody is saying that theres any one special interest that cant participate. What were saying is it would be not the right approach to just take this one slash, giant additional defense cut. This has to be across the board. Its got to be a balanced budget. Its got to be addressing all sorts of issues. Theres got to be spending cuts across the board as well as the raising of revenue. The real concern is not reaching a decision and just letting this take place without any direction and without any attachment, if you will, to a National Security plan. Howard, the feeling is if we go over the cliff, we go back to recession. Isnt that a fear . Its not a fear. Its going to be reality. Were going to go into a mild recession for two quarters, about 1. 5 negative growth. Then were going to come out by the end of the year. Well be back above 2 growth. Youre willing to risk a twomonth recession to try and reduce deficit a two quarter recession. People have been talking for years about how serious the deficit is. This is a bipartisan solution. Now people are getting cold feet when its about to go into effect. I dont think this is the time for americans to blink. If you take the deficit seriously, then lets get this thing done. This is a bipartisan proposal to do it. It is tough. It is unpleasant. Nobody says that when you borrow more money than you have and you spend it all that its going to be easy to put yourself back on your feet. That is what has to happen. Every industry, including defense. Let me just say, this is a 2 across the board split evenly between defense and other spending, Human Service and so forth. This is not a punishment for defense. Defense is taking a big hit. So are a lot of other programs. Thats the way it should be. Defense has really already taken the hit with the budget control act. What this sequestration does is places 50 of the cuts on 20 of the budget. Fiscal cliff is not the answer. A bipartisan approach in washington to get it done. We need a deal. We need to rise above. We have fiscal cliff for what may happen at the end of the year. We need a term for what happens if we get back up. Phil fiscal grinds, fiscal ladder. I dont know. Thank you both for joining us. So much for novembers better than expected jobs numbers. The former head of president bushs council of economic advisers says the data may not be all it is cracked up to be. Hes next. And then later, laura tyson, former head of president clintons council of economic advisers will weigh in on that and where things snand d. C. As we get closer to those automatic tax hikes and spending cuts. Plus, 401 k is not okay. Some news that might worry everyone whos banking on a 401 k for their retirement. Keep it here to find out more. If we want to improve our school