Well find out what the economy is doing right now. Larry, we just heard gary talk about revenue growth. You said earnings are doing well. Revenue hasnt been so hot. Its been objection right . Do you think youll see a breakout in revenue and market demand . I think its too late in the cycle for that. I think its been driven by cost control. One little hiccup that could come soon, estimated a 0. 7 rise in the cpi because of the rise in gas prices. The broader picture is youve got to like equities. All right. In the meantime, we are heading towards the close, and we will set a new alltime high for what has been a rather unloved bull market that weve seen this time around. The Dow Jones Industrial average will be closing at an alltime high that we last saw in october 2007. What does it all mean . Where do we go from here . Thats what were going to get into coming up in the second hour of the closing bell. Ill see you tomorrow. Maria will see you tonight as well at 7 00 p. M. Eastern time. Have a good day. And historic day on wall street. The Dow Jones Industrial average closing at an alltime record high. Hi, everybody, welcome to the closing bell. Im Maria Bartiromo coming to you from the floor of the new york stock exchange, and a jampacked floor with the dow blew past its previous high before the financial crisis in october 2007 after several failed attempts over the past couple of weeks. The dow shot up right from the getgo closing at 4 00 at 126 points higher at 14,254. That, the highest close ever for the blue chip average. A good day for the nasdaq and the s p 500. Lets take a look. Doubledigit moves there with the nasdaq composite up 42 points and Technology One of the winning sessions at 3224 the last trade on the nasdaq. S p 500 up 14. 5 point, 1539. Nasdaq way above its alltime record high which, of course, is above 5000, but the Dow Jones Industrial average at an alltime high tonight. Weve got full Team Coverage today on this historic day. Bob pins on the floor of the nys and Mary Thompson and Kayla Tausche standing by at cnbc headquarters looking at stocks and sectors that led the way and lagged. After weeks of waiting, the dow finally does it. What a march its been. March 2009, maria, 6,547, the Dow Jones Industrial average, and from there its almost been straight up, 117 rise in the last four years. What a run. As for today, well, we started strong right off of the bat. Thats because we had good numbers out of china. We also had a strong european open and that helped us, look at that move right off of the open here. It was a day for buying growth. Not only did we hit an historic high on the dow, industrials, hit an historic high and transports as well. Energy stocks and material stocks strong as well. Finally we had building stocks all throughout the board, Building Material stocks and Home Building stocks all strong throughout the day. Maria, 31 advancing to declining stocks. The only thing missing was a little bit more volume, about average for today. Back to you. All right, bob. Mary thompson running through the best and worst performers on the dow since the previous record hit back in 2007. Pretty good list. Reporter starting with the best of the blue chips. Home depot has more than doubled since the last record. Back in 2007 it was actually the poster child for excessive executive pay, but having shed its Building Supplies unit and focused on its core Retail Business its benefitted from a rebound in housing. Ibm, up 74 since the last record by focusing on Servicing Software and emerging markets and mcdonalds, up 69 , thanks to the fast food giants push into new markets and its ability to remake its menu to drive sales. Now a look at the losers. Hewlettpackards inability to follow through on promised makeovers makes it the third worst performer in the dow since 2007 high. Down 62 , though its among the best performers this year. Up over 40 . Bank of america the best performing blue chip last year, but its a 78 decline over the last five years representing the persistent drag around the financial crisis like the mortgage giant, countrywide, and the worst performer on the dow since the last record high, alcoa, the Aluminum Company down 80 neither peak. Maria, back to you. Thanks very much. Every day theres individuals winners and losers but on this historymaking day we want to look at the sectors that have floored and others that have flo soared. Home depot and mcdonalds among the high flyers in the five years since the market was last at these levels, just two of the components helping the consumer sectors, staples and discretionary leading the pack, up just about 37 apiece since that last record. Health care and technology rounding out four sectors total that are in positive territory. Since that last real, for the rest of the sectors though, its been tough sledding. Rocky oil prices have been plummeting natural gas keeping Energy Companies in the red and similar commodity woes for industrials and al coa the single worst dow component in that time. Heavy cost burdens for utilities and telecoms in the last five years pushing those Companies Towards the bottom of the sector barrel here. Not one group is faring worse than financials losing half their value in the interim. Valued at most investors, maria. Dont expect to make up as much in this rally Going Forward. All right, kayla, thank you so much. Kayla tausche with the latest there. Will history repeat itself tomorrow. Will we see another new high . Joining us right now cnbc contributor michael yashikami and nathan back akand john and warren myers will be here with us from the floor of the nyc once hes closed out all of his trades for the day. John, to you first. Where does this market go next . Well, we think, again, steady as she goes. Still debating the fact that if this is a bull market or not four years into, it we like the fact that transports made a new high. We like the fact that transports are telling us something with gdp at 0. 1 . They are telling us that the oil and gas is a real story. We think that the transports are rallying so much because the oil and gas is is where the future growth of this country will be, whether its export or the fact that oil is going to give us a nice growth dividend Going Forward, you know. We see that a lot of the commodity stocks really havent moved that much, but yet transports are off the chart, so we think thats more of a u. S. Centric story, the fact that japan is obviously going to continue to ease their monetary policy. People are talking about china. Japans wages are 50 times that, the average employee in china, so people lose sight of the ball very quickly. Pikal, would you be telling clients at this point to take some profits, or do you want to keep risk on and keep looking for new opportunities to put new capital to work in stocks . Youve got to take profits, maria. Weve got stocks. For example, mcdonalds is a position weve owned for quite some time. Qualcomm is a position we own and chevron and Johns Johnson johnson. These are positions that are hitting alltime highs, and if youre looking at your allocation and making sure youre balanced, youve got to take profits. Things go up and things go down. Investors make the mistake of buying, but they dont sell, so i think you carve some of the profits off and you move into other assets that are undervalued that you think have opportunity Going Forward but youre absolutely right. When the market is at an alltime high you dont sit there and watch it you take profits. Pay a little tax and the last i heard when you make profits and pay tax, its not a bad thing. Nathan, what about you . You say we could see a pullback. What do you think . Absolutely a pullback, maria. Were playing a game called wheres waldo. In this case its where is the cash, right . If you look at the brokerage accounts by the new yorks own accounting, take cash long margin debt, guess what, theres not much money yet. Were in negative territory weve not seen in terms of cash levels shall i say since 2011 right before we got a 20 correction so the cash has got to come from somewhere, otherwise this isnt going to keep going. Corporations arent doing a lot of spending. Banks arent doing a lot of lending, and what im watching for, maria, the great rotation where people start buying stocks with their bonds. They sell their bonds. When Rick Santelli says to us, see whats happening. Getting killed over here on the bond side, thats when youll be able to say the rally might be sustainable on the stock side. Otherwise take profits. If youve got a kid thats got to go to college, a wedding, whatever it is, take some profits now because when the stock market gods push the chips out, they also pull them back. I dont understand that. Youre telling me that when the rotation begins where money is coming out of bonds and going into storks you think thats the beginning of the end . Well, thats the beginning of the end for the bond market, thats for darn sure. But thats all new money for the stock market. Not for the equity money. New money for the equity market. Great for equities but not the bond side of it. Thats what i thought. Good for the stock market. Absolutely. Great for the stock market, and i think the market will do great. But in terms of market capitalization it did not, so that means theres 1 billion less shares that were outstanding than they were prior, so the fact that home depot made a new high in terms of price but not market cap means when that rotation comes to the forefront theres going that much less stock for all that money to buy. Let me get to warren myers here. Warren, youre on the floor of the exchange. You just finished settling out your trades. Yes. From your standpoint, youre a i go on the floor watching the flow all day long. What happens tomorrow morning . Do you think the fact that we saw some selling at the end of the day today, that we had some sell imbalances at the end of the day, does that portend to a down open tomorrow . Not in the least. May actually happen that way, but one does not necessarily indicate the other, by any stretch of the imagination. You know what, weve been looking at and seeing is just strong underlying momentum, upward momentum in the equity markets for quite some time. You look at the transports have been very strong hitting new highs along with the dow, thats a very positive sign. Net cash flows into equities has been increasing over the last five, six months as opposed to deficits. Thats a very positive sign, and the other thing we look at a lot down here is the is the bullish and bearish ratios, and they are not signaling anything too extreme yet so i think theres a little bit more legs in this upward momentum, and i think this market can continue a little bit higher. Go ahead, john. This market is 13,7 from a forward pe, 16. 5 would be about where you would expect it to be, so weve got only at most 20 , 25 less if we are in fact getting to the end of a bull market. Certainly a time to be cautious if you havent been in this market, for sure. John, where do you see the conviction . Tell me what stocks and sectors investors really wanted to own the last month or so. I think we saw a lot of money starts moving to the medical stocks actually because of obama care, very strong interest in housingrelated stocks and financials continued to do well. Mortgagerelated stocks, the fact that fannie and freddie are moving out of market. Thats put obviously impetus into stocks into mbia as well as mtg, so those stocks are doing very well off of some very good levels as well. Were seeing good conviction as well in the energy stocks, right . Again, you know, back to the oil and gas story, transportation. Warren buffett was on your station the other day saying that his Railroad Carloading to terms of petroleum are off the charts, so even though the gdp is still just 0. 1 , theres different sectors and stock picks are real having their pick of the litter right now. In terms of Going Forward, we think that as long as rates stay low which we expect them to do and as long as the peak to trough in terms of s p earnings, the trough was 92 per s p earnings back in 2007, usually every ten years s p earnings probably almost doubled, so if we put a double on that and lets say 75 , a 160 handle and a 15 multiple on that, you know, still looking at 2,400 out to 2017, so the economic numbers are not going to be Straight Line better. The stock market is not going to go a Straight Line higher, but over time the trillions that the fed is doing and the amount of technology, new technology that we have, theres no place bert to be. Thats really the question, isnt it. Mikeal, you said you want to take profits right here. Where are you going to go . Where are you going to put that money . You go into cheaper stocks. Okay. Stocks with more of a discount. I still think you have to keep risk on. You just rotate out of the higher risk stocks that have gone up, and i also want to say watch financials. Weve talked about this a lot, but financials are still deleveraging. Huge layoffs were announced by jpmorgan the other day. Citigroup is certainly going through a layoff pattern right now, so i think youre going to see these companies, even though they are getting killed on net interest margin, i think youll see these Companies Get more and more profitable. The money has been going to health care, i could see it rotating somewhat out of health care into cheap discretionary items, in other words, stuff that really is cheaper than retail, maybe the cost cos of the world and actually see it move into financials. Thats where i think the rotation will happen. Leave it there. Gentlemen, nice conversation. Appreciate all your time tonight. Well be watching this market rock and roll. Much more ahead on this jam packed edition of the closing bell, a record setter. What do you do now that the dow has hit the best level . Talking to wall streets top money pros including James Paulsen who helped over see 370 billion in assets and bob dole as well as the head of Starwood Capital group. Wait until you hear how he is allocating capital or how high or low they see the dow going from here. Back in a moment with all of they will. And billionaire steve forbes gives us his two cents and more on the market action. Youre watching cnbc, first in business worldwide. [ female announcer ] its time for the annual shareholders meeting. Therell be the usual presentations on research. And development. Some new members of the team will be introduced. The chairman emeritus will distribute his usual wisdom. And you . Well, youre the chief life officer. You just need the right professional to help you take charge. Welcome back. Get this. It took more than five years to reach the alltime high today, but the last time we saw a record break, the blue chip average fell 54 within the following 17 months do you to in large part the financial crisis so whats next for the markets that seem to only want to go up on the bearish side of the story is harry dent of hs dent, and our own jeff cox is also on the bear side. Bullish side, cnbc contributor ron insana and investment strategist James Paulsen. Good to see everybody. Thanks for joining us. Jeff, you think this is the best it will get for the marks. Youre expecting a sizable drop coming. Why . Maria, history is on my side. Look, when you look at the market, where we were, where we got to now. Every time the last 11 bear markets that weve seen this happen, the market has always had a major pullback. I think its not a bad thing. I think we dont need to get crazy about it. I think it could set up a very nice opportunity, but history tells us this is the way it goes. History tells it, but can you really compare any other moment in history to this moment when the Federal Reserve, ben bernanke and company have been the most aggressive fed keeping an environment where there is no alternative to u. S. Stocks . Thats a great point, maria, but look at the dow has gone up 3 1,000 of a percentage point in the last five years and the fed Balance Sheet has increased 275 , National Debt increased 78 , but bottom line here, markets are moved on two things. Fear and greed. We can talk about all of the other things we want to talk about, but fear and greed are the two main market movers. Fear always takes over when a market gets this greedy. All right. What do you think, ron . You dont think jeff is right . It depends on the size of the correction that hes talking about. Talking about a bear market, i absolutely categorically disagree. Talking about 5 to 10 . That can happen at any time. Thats ordinary in the course of what i think is a secular bull market, something that has been described as quite some time. Maria, you make a good point. When you talk about comparing to other market periods, if you look at the dow from 1929 after it crashed, and that may be the closest analog that we have to the experience of 20072008, it took 25 years for the dow to go from 381 in september of 1929 to get back there in 1954 after having fallen, you know, 90 . In this crisis, you know, we went down as you said 54 and it only took five careers to recapture the high. Policy matters. This time to a certain extent is different, and one thing would i say, interesting to note, nobody is in washington this week and wall street is doing really well. Maybe the message of the market is that our elected representatives ought to stay home for the remainder of the year and let this thing go on. Harry, youre calling this historic level today the top before the top. What does that mean . Were topping her short term and will see a small correction, maybe 6 , 8 , 10 and on the last rally that well come into the summer that well see divergences. Yes, this is the most Aggressive Central Bank stimulus ever, ever, ever but the worst demographic trends downward around the world ever by far and the highest debt ratios in histor