And the biotech nightmare that lost more than half of its value and what sent the stock cratering. But first renewed fears over china, the shanghai falling more than 2. 5 . Industrial production, a revamp of the ipo system weighing on investor sentiment. This was chosen as the top business story of the year. 2015. So for 2016, could china but the big wild card for the markets. Tim, what do you say . I dont think so. I think we obsessed over it in 2015. China has a major credit problem and they are the biggest part of the problem. I think the things today were the drivers, the currency is at fresh lows. And the yuan, you could read it 234 terms of Deflationary Forces and read it in terms of the economy outright or a competitive deval around the world but i think we priced that in. Well get china pmi on friday night. The numbers that were out were nah. And what china is going through, people Pay Attention to. When liquidity is terrible, it makes sense people are concerned. Bigger issue in 16 than 15, no way. I agree with tim. This is a country growing for three decades and they are going through a transition and it will take time to ease out of that. I dont believe it will be 2016 that we see a big change there. The biggest impact in 2016, i think is Hedge Fund Redemptions and Energy Defaults or Energy Companies going out of business. That is going to be what drives the market in 2016. Do you agree . Couldnt disagree more. Bring on it b. K. So, listen. In august, the one thing that hurt the stock market was the china devaluation. That was a 3 or 4 devaluation. Compared to other emerging markets, it has a long way to go. You could see a 10 to 20 devaluation. And that will get everybody concerned about what is going on in china. And the only reason it is up is because of the stimulus program. They are building the extra buildings they didnt need before. China is a disaster. Now whether or not it blows up, i have no idea. They could pull a lot of leverage. Will it be a drag for the u. S. . It will be a drag for the u. S. Lets talk about apple. 25 of the sales last quarter came from china, growing 100 yearoveryear. And look at apples relative underperformance. And here is a Company Getting a ton of growth from china. But it is an apple store. You look at the bestperforming stocks, look at starbucks and nike. They are outperforming in china. And when the shanghai composite went up 70 , the s p 500 went up 5 what was the question. Were talking about the economy but lets talk about the wealth affect that people suggested could be what was the question she asked. Are you asking the questions or is mel asking the questions. Will it impact the u. S. Stock market. Let me finish. If you look at s p 500 profits or revenues, it is about 2 to 3 coming from china. So ultimately we have a question that were talking about the u. S. Stock market. Are we going to be taken down. We started saying china is about to blow up and i dont think that is a reasonable conversation. You didnt think so in the spring either. And was i wrong . Look at the u. S. Stock market. It is flat. But the volatility were seeing in the commodities and credit markets all over the world have to do with what is going on in china. For you to say it is so powerful. The question was forwardlooking. Lets not look backward and talk about china. And lets look forward. There could be two different parts of china. There is a consumer area and that has done quite well and will probably continue to do well because of the wealth affect. There is a growing middle class. And the industrial side of china, and those companies, freeportmcmoran, they are paying. In the price. Listen, look at caterpillar or any of these. Will we see impacts . But is it in china. But is it purely china or oversupply of the kmods in a way commodities . It is a combination, right. Less demand, more supply. You said the story for 2016 is credit defaults in the commodities space and how will that not flow over to what tim just said. They need to be ratcheted in. They are extended. It has nothing to do with china. But if you look forward at the chinese economy and it continues to get worse, the cost that they reevaluate or get their debt again is going lower. I agree with that. We obviously has a rift here on the desk. It breaks from one side to the other side. How do you express your views then . You continue to churn as normal . I tell you what, i think the first quarter, we may share a similar view in the direction of the market. In the next few months well have a lot of fed injected. The headlines out of china, i think it will continue to weaken. But i do not believe that the chinese corporate sector will spill over into the high yield markets under pressure. How i do play it . I would wait for a pullback from the consumption led story in china that have been good when they pull back. That is bade baidu and others in china. How do you look at it. I look at the consumption. Jd. Com is a perfect example. I think it is a buy. I think this is an amazon five years ago. You are looking at a Company Going head to head with baba. The difference is there is a quality. Baba is the mall of the internet. But jd has products and people trust it and that is a stock to watch. How do you express it . Ewh. That is your etf. Big explosion in china. But they have a currency peg here in the u. S. So in 2016 you could see that peg break and that will make hong kong stocks stall. And when the shanghai goes through 3000 on the down side, there will be volatility in the u. S. If you want to take advantage of the downward opportunity, you look at jd. Com and alibaba and baidu. That is good to point out. Because you do agree there could be an impact on u. S. Stock market. That doesnt mean there is still not an opportunity. Of course. You mentioned it, the industrial shift for the consumer and that is where you want to be. Crude oil closing at the dead lows. Falling 3 , dragging the market with it. Will stocks be able to break out of the group in 2016. Dennis gartman, the editor of the gartman letter. In longterm there is no correlation, but lately it seems like intra day as we see oil hit 11year lows, the stock market will go down. When will we break that, do you think . I think you are right, in the shortterm, from minute to minute and hour to hour, even overnight, as goes crude, so goes the stock market. But if you look at month over month, half year over half year, year offer year, has goes crude oil, stocks go in the opposite direction. And i think too many people are focusing for too much on what crude is doing and predicating stock trades on crude going down or up. Better to leave crude alone. And over the course of the next year, as i said here last week, i think the time for being short of crude is over. Im not sure the time for being long on crude is upon us. I think it could be either side of 37 for a long period of time going forward. And that will be beneficial to stocks over the longterm. So im amused as those focused on rally of crude oil, stocks will going up and it falls 30 , stocks will go down. Over time, the correlation is negative, not positive. Dennis, it is b. K. The reason why everybody is concerned about oil going down is 25 of the high yield market is energy. Weve had a debt binge on all kinds of commodities and oil is the proxy for the commodities trade. What is different . It seems what is different this time is oil is attached to everything we are doing in, particularly in debt area and that comes to the u. S. Why is that different in your mind now . Ill accept your argument. Im not that concerned about what the debt circumstances are going to be. We know they are going to be a lot of bankruptcies after the turn of the year. Not a question. Dallas and houston looks bad. We know that will happen. We know the permian has bankruptcies but could crude oil go below 35 or 30 a barrel. I think not. I think at this point crude oil would like to go sideways and i think it will do better if crude oil gets quiet and i think that is what will happen. Everybody thinks crude will be volatile. People want to bet it will go up or down. Nobody wants to bet it will go sideways and i bet it goes sideways. And consistency of price is probably the best thing that we could have happen to the economy. So that is my bet nor the next year, beaks. Why is this good for the stock market. Is that crude oil will stabilize and stability is a good thing for investors . Bing o, absolutely. So not it is a flowthrough to the economy or anything like that. No. Stability is the best thing you could get for any economy. And whats more what, is the most paramount more than food, crude oil. Energy is the most important thing. If you could get crude oil and natural gas to stabilize at these prices an maybe go just a tad higher would be the best thing you could have for the u. S. Economy. It would be the best thing for the global economy. And my best is that is what is going to happen. Dennis, good to see you. Thank you. Thanks for having me on. Dennis gartman of the gartman letter. How do we trade this . Stability could be a great thing, particularly when it comes to the oil companies. Energy shares is clear. The question on the correlation, if you look at the r squared or oil to the s p over the last six months it is probably two times, in the last three months, it is four times the longterm average. There is no question it is doing something here. But eog, apg, hess, murphy, they have great balance sheets. Stability in oil price mean they will go higher. And another thing weird in todays session, besides the decline, is bren traded below wti for a long time. Look at what iran said. For a couple of days. Iran, and we talked about this in shoate as far as the show as far as the amount of supply, they are going to have their foot on the jugular of the u. S. Producer. There is no question that will come out faster and quicker. So 500,000 barrels a day is expected. There is probably another 250,000 barrels that will come in, tremendous amount of supply people are underestimating. I think you could see oil go lower and the equities go really get crushed when you see the bankruptcies and that is from blood in the water. That could be nine months from now. Coming up next, the pulse of the wearables. And why fitbit might have had a better Holiday Season than apple. And the biotech season, one stock that tanked 80 . The name and what sent it plummeting. And later, amazon breaking records and one top analyst said this is the beginning for the ecommerce giant. We have the next catalyst ready to send it to new heights. Much more fast money after this. Welcome back to fast money. Shares of fitbit getting a boost as a wearable Device Company took the top spot in the apple store on Christmas Morning and that kicks off the top trading. The app jumping 20 spots. Good sign that holiday sales were strong. B. K. That is probably it for this. That is all it is. Nobody expected this to be the top gift. It is clearly one of the top gifts of the season. But ive used it for a week after week, i got bored with it. And that is obvious. Thank you very much. I took that as a compliment. Totally delivered that way. It is not a takedown. No. But the point is that this is one of those fad things. And the value of this company is a function of how big its network it is and how many users it has. That is where you get value. And my concern is it is not going to grow that much. They have one shot to get taken out by somebody else and that is really the only thing i see for this company. I totally agree with you, b. K. This is a hard wear company and nothing more. Any other way to describe it, valuation, trading at 26 times next years earnings and could be trading at twice times. And massive discounting. 20 to 30 off discounting. The Gross Margins will take a clip on this. There is no question. You are looking at slowing growth next year as far as sales growth. They had 144 or projected to be 144 sales growth in 2015 slowing to 30 next year. Without the ecosystem of people staying on board of this product, like a gopro. It feels like a gopro. If it didnt work for gopro, it wont work for fitbit. And they want big contracts, and that is great. And the International Sales growth will be there. But to say this is a platform play, that people need to spend their lives going back to their site and they are monetizing that, it feels like gopro. They are not monetizing. The biggest problem with the apple watch is they didnt go after the fitbit. Because they do have a platform and this ecosystem and they have a partnership with nike and things going on. To me, if apple gets focused on the fitbit segment, they are done. Next up, freeportmcmoran getting hit today as the chairman is stepping down. Shares down 70 as commodities prices continue to decline. Carl icahn announced a 8. 5 stake in the company back in august. Tim, what do you do here . Good for carl. He is agitating change. But it seems to be at the wrong time. What is going on here is a governance it is interesting, jim moffett engineered this big deal for freeportmcmoran and took out planes and sitting on the board, so a very, very cozy deal. The stock should have been rallying on this news. And if it gets back to where do you value copper and where do you value oil for the next couple of years, they talk about some of this stuff, but ultimately they have copper at 236 in 2017 and 238 in 2017. It is at 206 right now. And at the levels they have, they made this clear, we may have to lower that. But it is Free Cash Flow positive. For the prices in copper. Otherwise, i would be neutral. Will this be a losing trade for carl icahn in a year. I think so. But he could average down. But the problem he has is what tim talked about. What is the catalyst for copper going high. I know they have the oil and gas side of it. I think those trade roughly flat. Copper may be lets say copper bottoms around 2. Does it get up to 2. 68, i think it is hard to see that. The airlines facing turbulence, with 4500 delays and 1500 cancellations because of wild weather across the united states. And that is wrapping up what was a rough weekend for post christmas land. And dan, you were in a land where there was a lot of tornados. Dfw, it is one of the largest and it was in dallas and there was mayhem yesterday. We see these situations every year. It is not any reason to sell the Airline Stocks. What is more important about the Airline Stocks in not when we had the southwest revenue give the data for fourth quarter, the stock hit 10 from an alltime high. The regionals or the domestic carriers like southwest and jet blue were trading at 52week highs. Theyve been held back a little bit. Delta is the one, it looks like it is about to break out. United and american are still well off, about 20 from the highs in january. So there is two ways to think about it. If you agree with dennis gart pans view that oil stays lower, maybe you get a catchup trade an united and american in the new year. And im glad you pointed that out in response to weather. Not too much of a reaction today but transports had a rough time. Ten days ago they were down 20 and still down 17 . So they are horrible. So if we are to believe there is a leading indicator for the market, that is bad news. I look at shipping call. Look at natural gas. The warm weather snaps, we get a cold snap and natural gas spikes. Short covering rally, of course. But the fact is natural gas is the choice now. Co coal is not being shipd as much. That is impacting the rails. But i look at the airlines and see them as the bright spot. They are controlling capacity correctly and theyve seen the demand pickup so i would stick with the airlines over any group in the transports. A news alert on the change to the s p 500. Seema mody has the details. Melissa, that is right. Willis group is set to join the s p 500, replacing fossil group. This following the willis group with towers watson, a deal expected to be completed soon. This change to the s p 500 is expected to take place after the close on january 4th. And youre looking at shares of Willis Group Holdings up 3. 5 on the after hours news. Melissa. Santa may have delivered but did fedex. Well tell you what had them working over time and why it was almost smooth sailing for one of its rivals. Im melissa lee on fast money, on cnbc. Here is what is coming up on fast. While you are recovering from eggnog there is no holiday hangover from amazon. And one analyst says it is the stock to own for the next ten years. Well take you behind the catalyst that could send amazon soaring to brand new heights. And plus were grabbing the crystal ball and giving you the biggest tech predictions ready to rock the market in 2016. From wearables to Virtual Reality, how you could get in on the hottest gadgets in the game. Much more fast money after this. Welcome back to fast money, a Biotech Company is failing 80 after failing to meet trial productions after stem cell implants. Is there any hope for chimerix at this moment. There was a virus that they were testing the drug for prevent of this infection after a stem cell transplant. They put this opportunity at 800 million in peak annual revenue and theyve wiped that out of the model now. The company is trefting the add know virus and smallpox but that opportunity is maybe 140 million peak revenue by 2020. Citi doesnt count this out in kidney transplant and other solid organ transplants. Most analysts are wiping that out of the models. We should see the data set in february. And citi is saying there is hope there is signs it could work in the kidney. 80 , you think this is done, this is the lead drug, but maybe there is hope going forward. Very optimistic. I saw citi, and i have to listen when a big Research Company goes from 80 to 19 on a stock. And it makes sense. But i thought they were saying that the Market Reaction today is there is no value to the kidney element of this stock and it is trading at cash levels right now. And arguably that is an opportunity. But there is no value to this drug any more. At least people are pricing in. Some folks are saying there is still something there, but it definitely missed expectations by so much. It looks like it is worth a trade into february, given the fact you have 8 in cash or roughly 7 in cash. About 4 1 2. So closed under 8 today. Under 7. It is worth a trade. And into february, to see if there is opportunity there. If that pans out, where does the stock go . I dont know. Could be a 20 move to the upside. If it doesnt pan out, where does the stock go. Is there anything else in the pipeline, not just there are different indications. They do have much earlier s