Unchanged and signaled two rate hikes later on this year. Now, that looks like the fed seemingly has cold feet so what are you doing with your portfolio at this point . Guy . I think you stay with the cold market. I think gold is telling you everything you need to know over the last three weeks to the last month and a half where on every rally in the s p where gold should have sold off it has not and its gone higher. Look at the move today. Obviously hey lot has to do with the weaker dollar here. Again, you have central bank policies. Everybody is in this currency race to zero by definition that supports gold and i think gdx is the way to play it. The problem is they pushed out inflation. They pushed out theres no sign of inflation. I understand theres a host of reasons to buy gold. Inflation hasnt been the main reason to be buying gold at this point but if you see gdx it looks to me like its rolling over, and i dont think you can buy gld or gdx at this point. Actually in this case i think you buy gold under both scenarios. Heres the situation. Lets just say they are right and they manage to get the economy going, but they are going to tolerate higher inflation. What do you do in that environment . You buy gold. Lets just say they are wrong and the economy rolls over. What are they going to do . Now were going to have a real currency war that weakens the dollar. You buy gold in that scenario. Its a winwin trade. Gold is a winwin trade. A transitory trade. Cant buy gold. Why cant i . I want to buy gold. They reached for yield today. They reached for gold. It was up 30 bucks. Great. But they reached for utilities. They they reached for gold. It was up 40 bucks. Im glad that you brought that up because im looking longer term. Thats what was important about the Market Reaction today is you saw a lot of things rally at the same time that shouldnt be rallying at the same time. Right. Karen, what did you make. Reaction today . Well, the news itself i dont think was particularly shock, right . I mean, it was telling you that going in, but i like everything i own. I thought they made some positive comments on the economy in the u. S. Anyway so to me the interesting trade was volatility index came way in. Talked about owning puts. I bought them higher here and bought them today as well because i like what i own and i like the u. S. Economy. I want to stay long. But its getting cheaper and cheaper to protect that portfolio so i feel like youve got to let me ask you two questions. In december, they said the economy is so great well have to raise rates. Today they walked that back and said, you know what, Global Economy is pretty weak out there. We might have to actually lower rates. I mean, thats what i took away from it. Yield curve is going to flatten. How can you light the economy and stocks and financial in this environment. To me the first reaction was sell financials. Which is exactly what we saw. We saw that already. When you look at what happened in the financials, look at the xlf was down very modestly. In fact, the whole range. Xlf was not particularly big so this has been telegraphed for a while that we wont see a rate rise right now. I think those stocks are so overdone to the downside. I think the valuations here reflect a not a not big curve or steepening this year and so i think that if we do get it youre getting it for free, but this bet is so data dependant. Look where the world is two months ago and look where we are now. Its worse now. But it doesnt stop the market. At a certain point youve got to say ive been negative on market but at a certain point if we start to take out these levels, 20, 30, to 50week moving average, 20, 40, were approaching basically flat on year, got to say bear suit away. Get long stocks. No, not at all. Not why . First of haul, thats not how i trade. Thats trading backwards. Trading backwards. Why would you buy at the highs, come on . Why wouldnt you buy at the lows . Why wouldnt you buy at the lows. I would buy at the lows. But at the lows you were very bearish at the lows. In fact, at the lows is i said dont pressure shorts here and put on hedges for my short positions and up at these levels im taking the hedges off. Admittedly only a fool is not swayed by the facts, but im not calling you a fool. These arent the facts, thats the thing. At a certain point. I guess so, but at a certain point. I dont think were at that point. Whats the point . It has nothing to do with technicals. Has everything to do with the fundamentals in the economy. It doesnt matter though. It does to me. It doesnt matter. Sure they do. The market has rallied 200 handles and nothing has gotten better and its 200 handles. It can go down 200 handles then. Im blowing the whistle. Based on what the fed said youre bullish or more inclined to buy . More inclined to buy yield. Alcon. Consumer the staples. Things people are overvanld youll go in and buy right now . Youre more set be stops but markets need to hold here. Sure. So to b. K. s point youve got to being a noveltyic. If youve got to trade here and go below 2,000 you have to take things more off the table. Youre more bearish based on what the fed said. They came around to my point of view, that the Global Economy is slowing, that the so now you have to look and say, all right, are earnings going to be better in this environment and i dont think they are going to be. I would quickly say the two rate hikes they are talking about for the rest of the year will become one rate hike for the rest of the year, and if it does happen it wont be until december. My point has been they continue, in my opinion, to paint themselves in a corner, they being the fed. All this did today, again, my opinion, was to further paint them into a corner. At a certain point their credibility goes away. They will say two rate hikes and then its going to be one rate hike in deeks and then they will say the Global Economy is weak and we cant raise and at some point market says, you know what, maybe things are the way b. K. Says. I think you feel that the feds credibility is out of the window at this point. 100 point. At other points people will come around, to the only our fed but Central Banks around the world have. The core larry is what happens to the regional banks . Karen mentioned the xlf and the kre which tracks regional banks. Track different stocks and have a bigger lending book, a bigger lending curve. A name like pnc. Sun trust, do you not buy them in this environment . Difficult environment for the banks, no question, and we talked about this last night. Is that environment baked in . Karen just talked about it. Valuation would suggest that it is baked in. I think though, and we can all agree that banks have gotten cheaper historically than weve seen them now. I think the rate curve works against them and their ability to make money is difficult in this environment right now. Lower for longer Interest Rates. What does that mean for the consumer in the retail portion of your portfolio i think its probably fine. I think though its looking the other way around though. Okay. If the economy does well, even if they have not to raise rates and the economy does well. Thats good for the consumer and energy, thats an important factor for the consumer as well. I feel comfortable making a bet on the consumer and feel comfortable with the retail book. Stocks may be surging on the back of the fed but our next guest is looking at pretty troubling signs in the economy. Rich, what do you see . The most troubling sign is that ive been wrong for the last 2 here i. Removed a tactically bullish call last night, but, melissa, i dont plan on being wrong for long. In fact, i wouldnt be long either. Let me tell you why i think we could see some trouble in here. When you stare at the jump, the first thing that jumps out at you, as weve been in a nontrending market, sideways market in the better part of the last two years, and when we look at this, what jumps out at us, the striking symmetry with the Double Bottom we saw last august and october. Gave us this vshaped rally which was about 33 days. What are we looking at here . Another Double Bottom. About 29, 30 days into it. Broke above 2,900 day here and had another seven trading days after we broke about national, about another 1 to 2 . I think history repeats itself. At best, youre looking at 1 to 2 . Now, keep in mind. Bottoms occur in vshaped national because the fear is palpable but hope dies hard and tops take time to form and i think thats what were going to be looking at. When we take a step back it allows us to remove emotion from the equation and to b. K. s point, i think hes right on it. Still staring at a sixyear bull market with a twoyear top and running into resistance that steve alluded to up around 2233. Look back to 2008, i know people dont want to hear 2008. Im not saying we go down here, fiveyear bull market, threeyear top, countertrend move, fails right here into that 50week moving average, trust me that we failed right there, and ultimately weve moved lower. Had a very similar countertrend rally from march to may of 08 and march to may of 2001. Years which marked the beginning of bear market reversals, so while the recent rally is very encouraging, we give credit where credit is due. The action in the weaker dollar, the stronger crude, thats all great, but keep in mind we have a market thats being led by the lagards, the former leaders are falling by the wayside in terms of health care and financials remain in the penalty box and smallcap stocks remain in the penalty box. This is not the hallmark. Beginning of a structural bull market. Once again we move back here, we probably have another couple days, 1 to 2 here, but you want to start to be a seller as the market forms this top and keep in mind were transitioning from a period of strong seasonality which started in november and runs through may and then we move into a period of weak seasonality from may through november so if you get into april and youre still up around these levels, youre going to be staring at a 13 rally at the tail end of a countertrend move being led by lagards, going into a period of weak seasonality. Thats not a strong play from the wrong side. Rich, heres the problem, how we opened up. At what point. Ive been negative and had your same viewpoint and at what point i hear you saying 1 or 2 higher, but at a certain point you have to realize were looking at in the face of crude that wont crack again, and i think if crude doesnt crack you could be looking at much higher markets. What do you say and where do you draw the line and what levels in particular that we close above make you change . Great point. I mean, we have to manage risk here. Technical analysis at its heart is not just a crystal ball but also a framework for managing risk. Lets use 2070. Have to have a hard stop in here. 2070. Doesnt mean youll get wildly bullish and if youre a short seller and thats too wide. Where do we close . Its 40 handles on the s p 500. If you cant handle, no pun intended, 2 and 40 handles on the upside you shouldnt be shorting this market. That shouldnt be the pillar which holds up your bearish case so give yourself to a daily close above 2070. Thats your stop, hard and fast and after that we clear the chessboard and reconsider the view but absent that i think were staring at exactly the same time and the countertrend which failed miserably and in march 2008 and march 2001. Dont chase this real. I dont think its the winning play. Rich ross of evercore. If you fail to plan you plan to fail. Ive said 2025 now. Here we are now. Give it a couple of days to see if it holds. I thought todays price action in the context of the last couple of weeks 2, hundredpoint rally and the context of that i thought the market held up rather well and well see thats what makes markets, sister. We want to hear what you out there have to say about todays fed announcement and vote in our poll at twitter. Com cnbc. Coming up next, first the valeant crash and that could spell even bigger problems for the embattled pharma giant and fedex out with a huge beat and the stock is rallying after hours. That call well under way. Well hear from ceo fred smith on the quarter and when he says about amazon and later could the tailspin from the hardest hit mining an Coal Companies be benefiting one very important part of the market . Well explain when fast money returns. My staff could use your help staying in touch with customers. At t can help you stay connected. Am i seeing double . No maam. Our at t buy one get one free makes it easier for your staff to send appointment reminders to your customers. And share promotions on social media . You know it now im seeing dollar signs. You should probably get your eyes checked. Good one babe. Optometry humor. Right now get up to 650 in credits to help you switch to at t. Man 1 i came as fast as i man 2 this isnt public yet. Man 1 what isnt . Man 2 weve been attacked. Man 1 the network . Man 2 shhhh. Man 1 when did this happen . Man 2 over the last six months. Man 1 how did we miss it . Man 2 we caught it, just not in time. Man 1 who . How . Man 2 not sure, probably offshore, foreign, pros. Man 1 what did they get . Man 2 what didnt they get. Man 1 i need to call mike. Man 2 dont use your phone. Its not just security, its defense. Bae systems. Welcome back toe fast money. Another day and even more drama for wall street whipping boy Valeant Pharmaceuticals. First it was the stocks and now the market is losing confidence in its stock. Take a look at chart, maturity in 2018. Is this becoming a credit . 100 . Its been a credibility story and then a credit story. Both start with cre. And d. And i like at that. See how it works. Listen, i think weve said for a long time. Two nights ago you said on valuation can you buy valeant, you can make an argument on valuation but cant buy it because of the headline risk and you saw what happened in the subsequent days. Here you go. What about trading the stock . Made a 31. 20 low and the north two days traded north of 200 million shares and if youre so inclined to trade it for a bounce which weve seen over the last six months in the name, go ahead and knock yourself out, but im telling you that the credit says and karen will probably back me up but it has a long way to go on the downside. Crazing striking similarity, the street didnt want to abandon the stock for a very long time. People today only downgrading it from a buy to neutral after a 50 decline. This strikes me as another sun edison. I guess, it could be. I mean in, terms of that spiral that happened, a disbelief on the street and amongst shareholders. Yeah, i guess thats true. That was one clearly i was burned on so i hate to even think about it. I mean, there are some similarities there. This one, i think its absolutely ridiculous when the street comes out with things like market perform. This is not a market perform. Right. You really think thats going to perform in line with the market. What that is the most ridiculous thing when you see things like that. I agree. Headline risk all over the place. It could be good, could be bad, who knows. I think its hard no believe when people got into it and they had an 88 target or whatever. Two days ago, that now they have adjust it had and they have fully factored in everything that we saw yesterday. And you cant plate equity in this. Play it some other way. Play it even if you dont want to play it at all. No clue in whats happening. 12hour increments let alone 12hour increments and cant watch a stock trade down in your face like this. 50 and think you have a handle on it. One last thing that i want to add though, the debt, while crushing and big is not a very front burner today problem in that they dont have a ton of maturity due in the next 12 months. Right, right. They have had a little bit of room. Its still a massive amount of debt that they need to address and its not like sunedison, they need to address it next week. And needed access to the funding markets unlike this situation, but similar to sunedison theres a real question about management credibility. Remember back in december management communicated with the street. When mike pearson came back to valeant, he had those individual Conference Calls and calls with the analysts on the street, and somehow between that timics which is a few weeks ago and yesterday, the street still didnt get the story . Right. So theres a couple issues when we talk about the credibility, management credibility, completely botched this, whether you believe it or not, the stock was down 50 after they open their mouths and they botched whatever message they are trying to get out of there and the second is what is the plan for the company. Weve now changed their Business Plan and will they be able to generate the revenues that they thought they would in the past im with steve and karen and i think on this one its much better to watch the train wreck as an observer rather than be part of the train wreck. And when Companies Like valeant and today in mallinckrodt, they traded down low as much as 11 , 12 and closed the day down of or so, doesnt that also put more pressure on the Group Overall . When i say to buy it for a trade, im saying, listen, we talked about sunedison, look at some of the bounces you saw on sunedison the past couple of months, pretty unbelievable and here we find ourselves within a whisper of a 52week low. Youll have a day when the options traders who have negative w. H. I. P. , not to get too crazy, on options action they can explain it. The higher it goes the more they have to buy and the lower it goes the more they have to sell. They may get caught up in the vortex on the upside. Doesnt mean its fixed but the stock will be more volatile than unusual in this market. Fedex rallying after hours on the top and bottom line and ceo fred smith making interesting comments about amazon moments ago. Well bring you the headlines right after this. Im melissa lee, youre watching fast money on cnbc, first in business worldwide. Mean time, heres what else is coming up on fast. I didnt do it. Thats basically what the fed said today so with rate hikes on the sideline, the global head of fixed income at vanguard will tell you what to do with your portfolio now. Plus, is this man anticapitalist . Frankly im disgusted. And so are a lot of free market economists with what the donald had to say last night. And its got a lot of traders nervous. Well explain when fast money returns. Welcome back to fast money. Weve got an earnings alert on fedex. Morgan brennan is back in the newsroom with the latest. Hey, morgan. Reporter melissa, shares of fedex are soaring after narrowing their fullyear guidance and saying it expects positive momentum to continue into fiscal 2016 so on the Earnings Call which is still under way chairman and ceo fred smith saying theres three things he wants to address based on reports, future margins, industry disruption and capital spending. In terms