2,000point loss at the beginning of 2016, the biggest quarterly comeback since 1933. The new highs come in this year and what to you do with your portfolio. Its impressive. No denying it at all. February 11th at 2 30 in the afternoon, the s p, here we are 240 points later. Tims been on it. Congratulations. Its been a great call. Im not certain we can continue this trajectory. Its just too much. But ill say this, you had some other areas participate today. Financials up a percent. Thats good news. On the down side, ill say this, the Oil Volatility index on the day it should have gone down, was up 5 . Now, a month or so ago, we saw a big day when the ovx closed lower. That sort of signaled the beginning of this upside to crude. I wonder on a day it goes up, does it indicate the end on the up side. We cant omit the crush in the dollar that we saw today helping all of this. I think this gave this a lot more room, actually. To be clear, im out here saying valuations arent that interesting. I think credit is tightening a bit. But all the things we had in early january, china commodities credit, consumers, all the things that were proving to be ultimately i think black swans, in many cases, thats how the market was playing them. The dollar has responded. At one point it was thought to be the only place the fed could push things around and maybe control some of the global risk. The reality is, Central Bank Divergence is nowhere near what people thought it was. The fed is in the same place as the ecb, the boj, and the bank of china. They said they will not deval the currency anytime soon. They said, you are not going to have this as a wrecking ball. And china, i think, wrestled Central Bank Policy away from the feds starting back in august. It means a lot of these reverse in trades, and mark will talk about those, i think in some cases are very, very long deepseeded trade that have only just started to move. You dont sell commodities when theyre expensive. You dont buy them when theyre cheap. Emerging markets in the first inning of a reversing trade against the s p. You know, i think tims on on the g20. I think you have to compare the monetary versus fiscal stimulus. Then it was the China National congress, the ecb, and the fed. Youve got a lot of the headwind, or headline risk out of the way. I dont know if were stuck here. I do know its about crude. I do know that crude at 40 means a hell of a lot to the market. People unwinding the trade short equities had to buy the commodity. I think youve got to buy the market if it holds. You said you didnt think crude would ever get above 50 again. No, i said near term. You said crude would never get above 50 ever. Near term. Near term. Its 40. Its not 50. Near term, it was a hell of a run weve seen in crude. I dont think were going to trade above 50. Ever. Near term. Youre not getting it. He steve did say, i shouldnt have used the word ever. He said i dont think in the near term. Just not anyway i was trying to get a clarification. Were clear. So heres the thick, in january, one point in early february, and you didnt move your feet and youre nervous about things, what do you do with your portfolio, i think there are a lot of things that did change. With ehad a lot of tension on the economieses the markets. It abated in the last month or so. I would say its reevaluation. You almost have a redo here. Were still in a pretty defined youb trend here. And i think the last leg of this rally that weve had over the last few weeks has been on very low volume. Weve made a series of lower lows. When i look at the s p 500 and russell 2,000 in particular, if you were a little nervous, if you thought you had too much risk, because i do believe were still what happened if you sat out the rally. I bought out your group today. I thought people would be reaching. We heard from janet yellen yesterday that the rates are going no place. Apparently going no place forever. I bought out your i dont like the way that sharp looks. I think its a little too steep. Philip morris, relative strength index. M. O. , not overbought. I got one. What would you say to buy . I think youve got to stay with the gold traders. A dicey day, but i do think the bond market continues to go higher, meaning yields go lower. I think some of the stocks weve talked about breaking up, cocacola specifically seems to be breaking out to the upside. To me, i think you stick with some of the bum abouter stocks. A lot of the mult about ti nationals, the dollar has found a peak. Year over year, the dollar is down 5 . Weve been talking for the last 18 months about the dollars move. That is washtd, by the way. The dollar has been largely sideways and now down year over year. Theyre ones you stay with in this environment. Hes considered one of wall streets most accurate forecasters, and when he speaks, the markets move. If you listened to him back in february, your portfolio could have picked up some big gains. Listen. We were thinking that dollar will at some point need to weaken. The fed will need to fully align more with the rest of the world. Which would then help the commodity sector. I highlighted gold specifically. Now mark is making some new predictions op gold stocks on the dollar. Even the donald. Jpmorgans head of quantitative and derivative research. Great to have you with us. We did see the rally in commodities, we did see the rally in gold and the fed move more in line with market expectations. Now what, and lets start off with gold. You point at gold was a little bit of a weakening of the dollar and the fed diverging. What im thinking now is well see more of this convergence of the fed with the rest of the world ecb, boj. That should put some downward pressure on the dollar and be supportive of gold. Back in december, the first time i was here, the gold was the most short. Microfunds were short. Momentum was very strong. Now gold momentum is positive. So cts has closed their shorts. Theyre actually going long. Etf base tends to be sticky in gold. So i would stay with the straight. I would stay with the value asset. Gold is one of them. These assets will benefit from sort of a fed marginally underdelivering the ecb and boj, and that should put the pressure on the dollar. It should give them to boost to Commodity Markets and gold is one of the benefits. The momentum trade in gold, you made the point when it comes to equities, that momentum lasts longer than you think. So what are we seeing right now . And does this happen that the upswing in equities since february 11th could see more upside . In terms of equities, basically in january, in early february, the momentum vefs were short s p. If you look at the cpa positions, theyre max out on their shorts. They covered most of their shorts. Theyre roughly neutral now. Where are we now in terms of the potential closes, lets say the market goes 2050 or 2075, you could have another leg of momentum to these investors. Thats not too far from where we are. On the down side, to break the s p momentum, you would have to go lower. Its easy to reach the upside than the downside. I would reiterate that a big part of this move, since february 10th to now, has been on account of these systematic flows. So more technical in nature, although risk slightly might be on the up side than down side, i would say its probably that in terms of potentially having maybe 5 up side and 10 down side. It doesnt look that great. The reason for that, pause of the two aspects. You have momentum stocks and value stocks. There will be huge moves between those two. In march, we saw some standardization moves in terms of momentum stocks selling off. Yeartodate, momentum versus value, 41 . Its a staggering number. You cant tell just by the price, but theres market moves going on. Lets talk the donald at this point. So many people come on our show, or they go on tv and say, you know what, a Trump Presidency would mean down 20 on the s p 500. We had one guy come on and say down 50 over four years of his presidency. What would you say . Youre saying basically its impossible at this point. I think its very tough to say. You know, if you look at the various policies, or policy proposals, suggestions, you know, some of them are bullish for equity. But more importantly, i think a lot of these will be changed from now to the election date. If he is indeed the candidate of the party, hell probably shift it around, his view, and moderate it. Its hard to predict. You need to look at a stock that may not change. That resonates both with both sides of the aisle. Thats what is most likely to survive. One theme there is basically this whole thing of protecteding jobs. Sort of a trade protections. And that one is likely to stay there. What could be sort of impact of that. Lets the equities, but more on currency. Generally the u. S. Dollar could be under some pressure if you have this type of policy, the risk of this type of policy. And fixed income, i agree with that. We had a report published. Also, one could look by extension on equities that could be sensitive to these type of ideas. So firms that are heavily relying outsourcing, or importing, manufacturing goods, or global trade, look how the risk premium involves these names. Thank you for coming by. Thank you. Marko, thank you. I dont think gold is necessarily just a weak dollar play. I think its a play on currencies. You can now say youre seeing it globally. I think people come to the realization, its not an inflation hedge, a currency play per se, to me its a new currency play. Let me just say this. We talked about the weaker dollar. We talked about the dovish fed that we had. This is the playbook that actually worked really well in the years running up to the last couple here. You bought that sort of dovish talk. But for me, its not particularly bullish for u. S. Equities right now. I know a lot of u. S. Multinationals will wen benefited from the weaker dollar year over year. Fedex is relying on the u. S. Consumer, and a secular shift in the ecommerce. Look at caterpillar on the flip side, where are they going to get their growth . Its going to be emerging markets and china. To me, i think thats the problem here with u. S. Equities, and it doesnt set up particularly well, because the playbook has run its course. Breaking news op jpmorgan. Its not that often that we see about a Capital Return Program addition or hype at a bank, especially a big one. But in this case here, Jpmorgan Chase shares up by about half a percent, light volume so far in the afterhours trade. Still, the company has added 1. 88 billion to its existing Share Buyback program. The Important Note here is that the firm, jpmorgan, has received a nonobjection from the board of governors of the Federal Reserve system. Of course, a lot of the big banks, they have to get signoff before they can increase dividends or payback in stock repurchases. Thats the news update for you right now. Back over to you. Dom chu, thank you. We made a big deal when dimon pot stock back in february. Do we make a big deal here . Just because investment banks dont have the same Business Model they had a couple of years ago, i think which will continue to stay relatively flat, because the mna activity is coming down and we know the private equity, it doesnt matter. These guys, its a credit perspective. These guys are much healthier than people say they are. The four cs, credit, china, consumers, commodities, much better than people had them. I think a huge headwind still at the banks right now. I sold my bank of america. I sold it a couple of weeks ago. I thought they would be stagnant, sideways basically. So jpmorgan is down 10 yeartodate. Citi is down 17 . Bank of america down 20 . Theyre all down. Theyre probably not going to track new money coming into it. I think people are chasing dividends and growth. Im not sure youre going to get it with banks. Everything timmy just said is spoton. February 11th was the headline the stock closed at 54ish. 59 now. Its basically mirrored the move in the broader market. Not like its necessarily talking about jpmorgan outperforming the broader markets. Itsactually underperformed. A lot of things going on. Theres going to be less profitable in this environment. Theyre just not going out of business. I dont think theyll topple the rest of the world. Since february 11th, banks overall have underperformed. They have. But with that said, to tims point, there are still some headwinds for the banks. Not the least of which a yield curve, in my opinion, its going to continue to invert. Up next, one mega cap industrial sending a big warning to the world. The stock is rallying. Well take you behind the market mystery and what it could mean for the broader markets. A group of stocks on track for their worst quarter since 2002. Well let you know if theres any hope for a turnaround. Crude topping 40 a barrel for the First Time Since december. Vo know you have a dedicated advisor and team who understand where you come from. We didnt really have anything, you know. But, we made do. Vo know you can craft an Investment Plan as strong as your values. Al, how you doing. Hey, mr. Hamilton. Vo know that together you can establish a meaningful legacy. With the guidance and support of your dedicated pnc Wealth Management team. Man 1 he just got fired. Man 2 why . Man 1 network breach. Man 2 since when do they fire ceos for computer problems . Man 1 they got in through a vendor. Man 1 do you know how many vendors have access to our systems . Man 2 no. Man 1 hundreds, if you dont count the freelancers. Man 2 should i be worried . Man 1 you are the ceo. Its not just security. Its defense. Bae systems. Welcome back to fast money. Move over, marty mcfly, the selftying shoes, nike calling adaptive lacing technology which can automatically adjust the snug fit of your shoe. Snugness, not smugness. Oh. Mark parker had this to say about the muchhyped sneaker today on cnbc. I think theres a wide range of people that are really interested in this whole selflacing adaptive performance. Obviously you have the sneaker heads who are all over it. This has been a buzz for them for years. It was actually a writein petition tonight to power through and get the power laces in a product. So its great to be able to put a product out there that is a step toward the future of adaptive performance. We should also note, nike has not yet given any indication of the price of this selflacing shoe just yet. Its cool. You know, the down side of it is did you buy a pair . I think i would. But i do know how to tie any shoes. The down side of it is, lets think about our children and our grandchildren. Think about what theyre not going to be able it to do. Theyre not going to have to drive cars, or tie shoes. Youre a big math girl at harvard. Theyre not going to worry about math. Theyre not going to worry about spelling. There are a list of things theyre not going to be able to do. Youre saying the future is going to be lazy and incompetent. Flat on year right now, but they were the original fitbit. The original guys, the fuel band, thats what it was called. Theyre concentrating more on the apps now. I think thats a big driver. Not enough to move the needle, other than the shoe maker, nike, but i think okay, safe nif enough to be a buyer of nike here. We talk so much about whats moving momentum, high multiple stocks versus value. Nike is none of these things. Its an expensive company. Its best in class. Its fought enormous pricing power. I would make an argument that the Chinese Consumer slg lg that everybody said is dead, not surprising. The yield results of the last quarter are coming out. Their futures are looking better in china. A company that will continue to trade at a premium. Thats the kind of name i want to own in this marketplace. I dont care about their technology. In the 80s, one thing they had remember the nike, you had a separate pump . That was reebok. I dont think reebok existed wack then. Yes, it was. Ill say this is a lawsuit waiting to happen. One of these kids will put on the sneaker, and keep going, have to have it surgically removed. Im telling you now. Six months from now when theres a lawsuit, you can say, play that tape from that guy on thursdays show. From the end of last year, weve seen this in the stock before. We saw it three years ago, two years ago, and last year as well. 26 times forward earnings, you can make an argument its expensive. But to tims point, i think theyre best of breed. I think it goes higher. What could be detrimental to the rally and how you can protect yourself. In the meantime, heres what else is coming up on fast. Thats whats happening to biotech stocks this year. And you wont believe how cheap some names have become. Well explain. Plus, its the crude awakening. . Open your eyes. Oils rally looks like its unstoppable. But the head of energy at bart place says, dont buy the hype. Hes here to explain why, when fast money returns. One crest 3d white smile. Is all it takes. To turn the tables. Crest 3d white toothpaste. Removes 5 times more stains. Than the red box. For a smile like that, crest 3d white. Is the way to whiten. Welcome back to fast money. Time for the move of the day. The ibb dropping more than 1 today, adding to losses of 27 this quarter. Its tracking for its worst quarter since 2002. What happened . What are some of the hardest hit names in the space . Time for some stock therapy. Are meg terrell is here. People keep asking are we at a bottom. Six months ago, where are we in the cycle. Most people im talking to say, all the generals havent yet gotten out of biotech. There are still folks around, thats what im hearing. Some people think were at a bottom and unfair prices. Other things we have farther to fall. How far have we come . From the top in july, down 38 for the ibb. If you look at the highest weighted names in the ibb, thats names like gillead, these are all down double digits, biogen. When you say what led us down, thats the highest weighted names. Youve seen the Companies Really coming back. An Investor Survey was done about 460 investors. Basically they were asked where do we finish out the year here . Outperform, underperform or perform in line . It was split almost equally across the board. You can see how people are trying to get a sense for whats happening here. Usually, you see people deciding, okay, this is another year of outperformance, so people dont seem to know whats going on. He also asked people what their mega cap drug biotech name is. Pfizer was their top choice there, trying to wrap up their deal with allergen. He also would most likely take out targets. If biotech is going to turn around, he said its because theyve finally come down to the place that the bigger cap names are ready to buy them out. The names people think are mostly takeout t