Here is what is most interesting. The defensive trades stood out as the biggest winners. Gold seeing the biggest quarterly gain in 30 years. Utilities up 9 . Telecom getting more than 15 . And the tlt rallying 8 for the quarter. So you stick with the winners. Do you stay defensive in q2, guys . I think the defensive nature is why people, specifically me maine still question the validly of this rally. Do you stay with those trades . I think you stay with certain things working. Home depot has been a monster. Cocacola has been a monster. Now were trading up against resistance. Gdx, for example, failed at levels we last saw at may of last year. Steve talks about xlu all the time that is also trading at levels that potentially are double top. So i think there are certain stocks that continue to work in terms of momentum. Some of the trades that have been defensive might be getting a little long in the tooth. You could take a look at the valuation, for instance, grasso on utilities. Utilities trading at a premium to the s p 500, 22 versus 18 1 2. Do you pay up for that performance . Do you think it will continue . I think guy has a valid point. You want the wait, let it breathe for a little bit now. But theyre up 14 year to date. You said 9 for the quarter. 14 year to date you. Should be buying the estimates. Its all about dividend right now. So give it a couple of days. But i think thats you should be in the market. Speak of staples, maybe a razor. Wow. I would make an argument that the defensive names were actually underperforming. The offensive names. So it wasnt about defense. It was about playing offense in the First Quarter. Emerging markets up 13 . Anything that was inverse dollar related went through the roof that was oil. That was oilrelated equities. To me the question is actually do you stay with the names that were not defensive but actually were very much counter trend trades. And i think those are trades that continue to work. Again, its about the dollar. Its about things that people have been betting so hard against there is nothing that happened in the First Quarter that really is any different than where we were in the Third Quarter and in the fourth quarter. And in those environments, a lot of these trades did not work. And yet, weve got more clarity out of the fed. I think you listen to the fed. You dont fight the fed until its time to fight the fed. Thats where people have been wrong. Do you agree that nothing has changed since the beginning of the quarter versus now . I think a lot has changed. I think we saw a ridiculous uptick in sectors that have absolutely no reason to be up where they are, specifically energy. I look at this move in the tape. Crazy where energy is trading right now. Some of the material names. The fundamentals just do not support, they dont support the moves that weve seen in some sectors. So i look at defensive. I hate getting defensive. I really got to be honest with you. I cant stand it. I love looking for opportunities. Look, you bought altria. A really nice dividend, but theyre going to benefit from the dollar. A double whammy. We talked about that a couple of days on the show. Thats a name i would be stick with here and looking into. But also biotech. Well talk about that little bit layer. There are some sectors that have really picked up steam the past month or so. You mentioned the fed step aid aside. Technology is up 9 in the past month. Ibm up from the one teens. So there are some tech names that continue to grind higher. I think people are playing the homeium trade. Well see what happens there. I think youre going the learn a lot tomorrow in terms of dont fight the fed. If you get a good jobs number tomorrow, again, that putsing them in a really difficult position right there. Data dependent. If that job number is really good, you wonder what it forces them to do if anything. April back on the table . I dont think they should. I dont think they will. I dont think they will. But it will force their hand where the market will selloff, thinking that it could be on the table. Exactly. When i think tim is talk about before, moving the dollar right now, its very shocking that you dont see oil rallying really hard. That to me smells. And i think if youre based on china being stable, i think you have you to recalculate where your trade is going forward. And i think the sentiment. China is a pmi number out tonight. But i think the China Sentiment is basically, its whisker thin actually. Thats twice. He looks great. All the wrinkles up the side of his face. I think what steve saying is actually fair. If you think about the move in oil in the last 5 move in the dollar, think about the context of the oil moved relative to what was probably a 12 move in the dollar. The dollar has appreciated 12 from july of 2014. And this is when oil had this massive selldown from 110 down to where it is today. Its bounced a lot. Steves point, it is tired here . I think thats a fair thing. I think a lot of the risk trades, the counter trend rallies of last quarter, these are things that cant go straight up in the shortterm. In fact, my positioning is actually for a market that is going to pull back. And that includes adding to iwm short sales and selling off some of the stuff. We thought about the oil move. Near term 50 is the top in oil. Tim had thought that that was going to go through, i think. I dont want to speak for you. And for me, i think were sort november the middle here. But i do think the trade is lower for oil. Definitely lower for oil there is no question. But i look at the fact earnings are coming into play. People are really concerned about earnings. The narrative is shifting quite a bit from the perspective of yeah, the fed, whether or not theyre going to raise, not going to raise. I get the scenario on the rumors. But i tell you what, earnings, people are thinking about revenue growth. Theyre thinking about earnings growth. Its really becoming a main theme thought in a pm that is running money that has a fundamental view on stocks. It will be interesting to see how Many Companies will actually say the dollar was an issue when the dollar index was down 4 or so for the quarter. We heard from it from nike. It was headwind for nike. So well see about that. There is no denying the performance in energy lately. Its the Top Performing sector in the last month. If history is any indication, it could get even better as we head into the next quarter. Paul hickey is the cofounder and joins us now. Why . You look the sector was only about 3 in the quarter that was enough to be the best quarter since i think mid 2014. So thats how poor energy has been, which is so beaten down. Its now coming into the second sector what we want to look at. Tim, you were talking about the weak dollar. Thats good or to the energy sect. Commodities and good for oil. Thats one thing working in its favor. Sentiment towards the Energy Sector, over half of companies in the Energy Sector have seen their numbers cut in the last month. When you head into earnings season and you have that extreme of a negative revisions ratio, shortterm sector usually does well. We saw it going into the First Quarter earnings season. Energy bottomed in late january. And analysts were so negative on the sector, industrials as well. And history. You look at history all the time. And two things. Energy, is Second Quarter of the year is historically the best quarter of the year for the Energy Sector. And then, again, with this huge swing we had in the First Quarter of this year. Down 10 . Up 10 , flat on the quarter. Its only been four other times when youve seen it that type of v in the First Quarter. Most recent were in 2003 and 2009. 2003 what drove the market down was the Technology Sector. After that rebound in the Second Quarter, the Technology Sector outperformed the s p by a wide margin. S p did well, but tech also outperformed. 2009, it was financials driving the market low and the rebound. Financials outperformed the market by a wide margin in q2. So the ground zero for the weakness during the pullback and the volatility of that First Quarter, outperformed in the Second Quarter. I dont mean to be skeptical. I guess i normally am skeptical. But in this case for Energy Stocks versus technology or any other sector, a big input for these analysts has been the price of oil. And not many on the street have gotten that right at all. So isnt this sort of shouldnt we discount the fact that theyre bringing down the earnings estimates simply because they havent gotten this right for so long. And theyre probably sitting on their hands thing you know what . Its impossible for us to forecast the price of oil. So therefore were going to hang back from making these estimates final. Oh, yeah. You look at it. Investors are expecting numbers to be short. The sector has the highest valuation of any sector in the market. And thats after revisions have been coming down. So its the highest p e and the p e is going up even as the sector hasnt done too well. And good barometer to watch for the Energy Sector right here is because 23 you look at a longterm chart, i think they have it here. From the peak in 2014 through now, there is a pronounced downtrend in the sector. And the downtrend and the 200day moving average were bumping up right against that level right now. So a cautious investor. If you dont want to be too aggressive, you can wait. And for the last couple of months, we worry about a lot of these Energy Companies going bellyup. We thought they were all dead. And the truth is if oil stays at this range, 30s, even around 40, thats not good enough. I think that you need to see oil really rebound and break through timmys level of 50 for things to sort of be that all clear. Especially in the small cap sector. Thats why companies are down about 70 from the highs. The large cap s p 500 names, there are names that a little less leverage. So they can withstand it for maybe a little bit longer here. But yes, you definitely need oil in the mid30s. I has to go higher here for these companies to be out of the woods. Paul, great to see you. Thanks for having by. Thanks for having me. Paul hickey of bespoke. Paul mentioned the quarter to date performance. But if you take a look at the past month, its actually the best performing sector. Its done better than technology, for instance. Is this momentum . Well, i think fundamentals have a lot to do. And momentum is clearly the other side of that. Or in addition to that equation. I say this again. Strong jobs number tomorrow in my opinion makes the dollar, which is poised for a rally go up sharply, which means this commodity trade which may be a little long in the tooth in terms of where we have been over the past month vulnerable for a pullback. It gets clipped . Yeah. There you go. When you think about energy amazing. [ laughter ] its been a grizzly, it really has been, steve. Who is the incremental buyer here . The hedge funds have gotten destroyed, right . This will move up and i say repositioning. Short covering was a real massive driver here. Who is the incremental buyer . The fundamental guys will look at valuation, too far, too fast. I cant play. Look somewhere else. Who is going to step in and support . Seaburg, timmy has one more joke. No, actually i dont, dan fouts. Its ultimately been an environment where the oil trade has been on the wrong sides of sentiment. Its still fairly negative in oil, even though specs have evened out. I wouldnt run from it. Still ahead, dow stocks that one of our traders had lost all hope for. Its having a huge day. Well give you the name next. Is one of the hottest trades of the year to be get hotter in q2 . Well explain what percent the consumer stock soaring to new highlights. Later, have you been sitting out this rally . Weve got four stocks ready to get you back in the game in no time flat. The names might just surprise you. Much more fast money right after this. Great time for a shiny floor wax, no . Not if you just put the finishing touches on your latest masterpiece. Timings important. Comcast business knows that. Thats why you can schedule an installation at a time that works for you. Even late at night, or on the weekend, if thats what you need. Because you have enough to worry about. I did not see that coming. Dont deal with disruptions. Get Better Internet installed on your schedule. Comcast business. Built for business. Weve got a news alert here on Semiconductor Company marvel technology, moving lower in the after hours. Kate rogers got the detail back at headquarters. Semiconductor conductor Marvell Technologies announcing theyre not going to be able to file their annual 10k on time this year. Theyre also expecting fiscal year 2016 net revenue to be significantly lower versus 2015. Theyre citing decreased demand on that. Theyre also blaming a previously announced accounting inquiry for the delay. They also switched over to a new Accounting Firm just as recently as february 22nd. And as you can see, the stock is down by nearly 4 in the after hours trade, melissa. Back over to you. Thank you so much, kate rogers. So a Company Misses its filings. Thats not good. Weak full year guidance, thats not good. Anything to like . S. E. C. Inquiry hanging over it the delisting is a risk. So to me, this is, again, its a no touch. Why would you be involved when we still havent gotten a lot of these issues out of the way . They told you that things actually dont look that great. Lets go straight to our top trades. Tonight it is a dow darlings edition. Well start off with ibm as the biggest gain other tonight dow for the day, rallying more than 2 . This after Morgan Stanley raised its price target to 168 from 140, citing watson and stronger estimates. As you all know, guy has been all over ibm for a long time. But unfortunately, not exactly on the right side of the tree. Take a listen. Weve talked about for the last 16 months that if you just did the math, ibm was 139 stock. It actually overshot how low we thought it would goo. I still think the multiple is too high. I get the upgrade and can it rally another five bucks from here . Yes that is a challenged company. Ibm, you come back five years from now, this might have a 100 handle. Wow. Forget about the dividend, folks. Ibm i think goes south, which means youre better off in the ibm bonds. By the way, b. K. Didnt like ibm yesterday either. So its not been a fan favorite here in the past. Nobody likes it, to be fair. This is a stock that any chance they can leans on the stock. So what is going on here . Not sure what is going on. We were right future a long time this move from 117 to 151 clearly caught me offguard. Never thou it would get here. But if you want to play the technical game, well, its still in a significant downtrend that were bumping up against going back from 2013 when i believe thats when the stock made its alltime high number one. I get the watson thing. But im not certain that that is going to be a huge driver in this quarter or the next quarter. They still have tremendous issues. And i like katie hubert. She has been on the show i think years ago. So i understand what she is saying. But it come downs to valuation. And they continue to lose out to the competitor. You continue to see revenue declines. Eps declines. It is a math problem. What is the right multiple for ibm if theyre going to earn 15 a share . Here is the question, though. Even if it is declining many metrics, doesnt it just need to not decline as much as what many people are expecting on the street for it to outperform as a stock . I dont think so. I think the only thing that saves this stock i think is the dividend. This was a dividend environment where people were hunting for yield. This was also my secular short. So ive been on that short side as well. But i dont think hes wrong. And i dont think im wrong. Because if you look at the chart, three years almost to the day was the top in ibm. 215 and change. There is no way its going see those prices again. First of all on a relative strength index, the stock is overbought currently. I would look for lower prices right now. I would still be overall a seller of ibm. They cant their sales are down dramatically. They made acquisitions. Nothing has helped. Next up, not ibm, mcdonalds. Ending the day slightly lower despite announcing plans to add more than a thousand restaurants, 1300 in china, hong kong and south korea over the next five years. Ceo Steve Easterbrook says he aims to turn mcdonalds into chinas number two marketplace. It was closing 350 restaurants in china, japan and the u. S. 90 of those actually came from china alone. Tim . Its a nice turn of events in china for mcdonalds after the hamburger scare in 2014. And really for yum as well. This is a case where fast food in china has been under a lot of pressure. These guys are recovering faster yum in china. When you consider china, hong kong, south korea, russia, this is 25 of mcdonalds sales. The fact that its growing this fast have s very good for people frustrated with mcdonalds top line even though the u. S. Has been the bright spot of late. I think there is plenty of ammunition for a multiple in these markets that actually makes sense for me. Not expensive, not in these market, not in the dividend yield where. Else are you getting the growth from a company that hasnt grown before . Is there a risk to this particular kind of growth . Easterbrook indicated that they would entertain using franchisees as well as licensees in order to exstand in china. They lose control. Valuation has gotten extreme. I think people are very surprised in the move its had. Very safety oriented trade from the perspective there is a catalyst here. The catalyst is they introduced some new products. All day breakfast. How long that k that last and be a meaningful driver . I get the expansion. The catalyst was in the real impetus for the stock to move higher was the fact that management really was making sort of this restructuring difference. They still are. Probably still has. Still on the number here. You talk about 22 times, 23 times . I think so they can get an earning per share level 7. If you put a 22 multiple, youre looking at 155, 160. Thinking is a stock that hit an alltime high this morning. Glad i w