Transcripts For CNBC Fast Money 20160419 : vimarsana.com

CNBC Fast Money April 19, 2016

Fresh alltime highs. Tesla shares tumbling after Consumer Reports says the car has, quoen unquote, quality issues. What is the problem . The writer behind the report is here to explain. But first, we start with another yeartodate high for the s p. With todays close, the s p is only 34 points, or a percent and a half away from new alltime highs. The dow 298 points away from its alltime highs. The question tonight, are we going to break out . And pete, what could lead us there, if you think we will . I think the same things that have been leading us so far. If you looked at today what led the markets, energy and materials. When Goldman Sachs was talking about steel, they were talking about inventories being worked off, they put a conviction buy list number out on nt. You get in the material space. Then you go to the energy space. We had rich ross on last week talking about the xle at 64. Well, it broke through 64. Day after day, were trading above that. Then add into the financials, because as we got last week, it started with jpmorgan, then we moved to bank of america, today weve got Goldman Sachs. The numbers continue to be okay, at least okay enough for this market. Look at the way Goldman Sachs flipped around today. Youve got financials, youve got the material space, and energy. I think that combination puts us higher. Youve been bullish throughout and its proven to the right place to be, tim. The dollar is weaker now, and im surprised people are shocked we can put more on the materials price. The dollar, its part of that trade. But its very interesting to me that people are piling into trades. The best time to make money is when things go from terrible to just kind of bad. So things arent great. Demands not great, although i would say an aggregate, demand is stronger and is at levels its never been at. Demand continues to go higher. Its been a supply story. People have been saying thats part of a fundamental argument. Stocks should be expensive. I same the same thing every night and ill continue to say it until yields go higher, stocks are cheap with yields at zero. Companies reporting right now are taking the pressure off investors who said, hey, earnings are going to be awful. And in the financial sector, guess what, theyve been terrible. But we knew that. And they dont have credit issues. To me, i just find it very interesting that a lot of people are now chasing and upgrading the same things when the price was different two months ago, they were bearish on. Guy, today was another day where it seemed bad earnings didnt really matter. You could have picked your choice to hang on negativity, whether its ibm, goldman wasnt great, illumina yesterday. If you put it into aggregate, take everything together, you could make a case that the earnings stink, the rally should stop, and the rally keeps going. Listen, i thought it would stop, and its clearly 75 points through that. But today, Goldman Sachs, that is microcosm of what the markets about. Pete said it was okay. Realistically, goldman numbers were historically bad. The business was down from 25 to 50 . But the reversal is exactly look at that stock. Look at the way it traded today. People say valuations are fair, theyll pull out of this, i get it. I still think there are headwinds there in the industry. But it seemingly doesnt matter. Now the s p is trading somewhere around 19 times or so. Tom lee is here. 19 times forward earnings. I think thats rich. But to tims point, maybe its not Goldman Sachs, you know the company well. With the Investment Bank and Capital Markets business which seized up in the First Quarter, in this environment, things are a lot better. These banks could reverse the pentup demand. First quarter is a coiled spring. One of the reasons people are reaching for yields now. Very quickly, that business could get healthy. I think that was the bet people are making today. Very quickly, but you know, those businesses can be dormant for a while as well. I think people are betting that they wont be going forward. The other thing, karen, most importantly to the whole conversation is that the dollar remains weaker. So the biggest headwind for all for earnings, whether its tech or otherwise, remains weaker, and thats helping everything out. Right. And gas, one of the things, do you think the fed is kind of on hold . Is the market trading like everybody else is throwing money . So we cant start to tighten. But to the Goldman Sachs point, Goldman Sachs, what a premier franchise that is. This quarter is bad. Its one quarter, theyre spring loaded, they can cut costs which we saw them do. You get a few good deals and things could turn around. I think thats very attractive here. Well get into intel and their earnings and the stock fall throughout the remainder of the hour. Its another stock that people are going to focus on in the trade tomorrow morning. And decide what they want to do. I think thats great. Netflix i think the stock market has done what its supposed to do, very, very Expensive Companies are selling off that have competitive threats. We talk about this market like, hey, do you think it can go up . Its up 13 . I dont think of this as a market thats up 13 . I think of it as a market thats flat on the year. And were back to some level of sanity. Only because the move from february 11th i can do the math. You can look at every sector in the market since that period, whether its materials, you know, so many of the others, almost every single one is up double digit percentage points. The aussie dollar bottomed in august. A lot of materials stocks bottomed late last year. I look at the fact were 13 up. Oversold, things are up 20, 25, 30. But that wasnt the right level. China wasnt blowing up. Banks werent defaulting. Thats why this feels so extraordinary. Its been a dash for trash. Its tough to deny that the demand is there to actually push some of these stocks at way from the february lows. Can we actually say to ourselves right now that steel and the rest of those are really they should be moving the way they have. I would say absolutely not. But is the iron ore has obviously helped some of the mining stocks. Huge shortage. A lot of the panic in the buy. And the rails. But also, go back to the one thing that we started the show with, Goldman Sachs. How about the financials. Since we started those, judge, were talking about an area where you look at the valuations there. They are really cheap. Im just telling you, those arent trash. Those are names that as things start to change, as the economy gets a little bit better, those names will perform to the upside. The trash also is very often so levered. The stocks can move. Sure. A lot. 100 , 200 , and the enterprise value not move very much. Lets get to a man whos been on the right side of the market for quite some time. Back in august when stocks traded down to the crash flash lows, tom lee came on this very program and said this. I think the reason you shouldnt get too discouraged is that 90 of bottoms, once you bottom, are vshaped to go from its peak to yesterdays decline, it would take us roughly 50 days to recover to those old highs. 50 days later, stocks reclaimed their highs. But they soon fell back to 1800. And when they did, tom lee once again appeared, this time on the halftime show and said this. Its welcome to see people sort of give up on the market, right . Because you do want sentiment to be really negative. I do think theres catalysts in the next few months developing. And i think thats why its possible for the market to actually have a really nice rebound. So you get the point by now. The guys been right on the money. Hes sitting here with us tonight at the desk. Tom lee is back. Thanks. Youve been right. It is what it is. What happens now, though . Well, i think clients are kind of stepping back and trying to reassess and ask the questions you guys have been asking. I think its to us really easy to visualize the market, not only make new highs, but delivering doubledigit gains this year. Its not like its a fantastic observation. In a bull market, 10 gains are most of what happens most. It may not be a fantastic, you know, prediction in sort of your words, but certainly counter to what a lot of people think. Thats right. The last 12 months have been very tough for folks. There were classic signals that would have made someone think, this is an 08 crisis, or a bear market. But there were other things that i think would lead you to believe this was a correction. I think thats obviously whats made it very tough. Karen . When you talk to clients, which is more difficult for them, to buy when were at, whatever, 1810 or whatever it was, to buy in that scenario or to buy right now . They have different issues. In midfebruary, there were enormous controls put in place in what our clients could do, in terms of liquidity management, or they couldnt stray from their mandates. I think it was very tough for people to sort of add risk. I think the biggest mistake that happened in february is people derisked. Today i think those constraints arent in place, but i think theres enough people who think this is just a bear market rally, and so theyre hoping for markets to go down. I think the positioning is still a big story. And thats why we trade heavy, and thats why we can rally so easily. I think thats why making highs isnt difficult. Is it the same sort of value overgrowth, the dash for trash stocks that pete talks about, the cats, the valets, the commodities, the materials, what takes us . I can put it simply that i think there are two things to think about. One is the dollar is reversing. And its helping commodities. And its helping these credit conditions. I think its bullish for the energies trade and multinationals and for the banks. Thats 60 of the s p profit. I think its an earnings story that can push to new highs. An earnings story, so were a couple weeks into this earnings cycle. How would you scrip the earnings youve seen so far . I think delivered results have been terrible. But i think theyre not surprising. I think there is you know, i would say that there is wiggle room and a lot of guidance. Management doesnt necessarily have to acknowledge it. Theyre not going to say the dollars turned so weve got an upside. But i think what you now realize is earnings now has weak dollar in it. The dollar could stay flat and its become a tailwind. I think its not only volumes better, and were seeing the pmis, but its real upside. What happens if the fed pulls the rug in june . You know, youre going to have the same theres a real possibility. Yes. I think the fed will create some turmoil. And i think people sell their rallies. I think youve got to buy the dip. Youve got to buy the dip. One of the things weve been recommending with clients thats worked really well is focus on what i call yield parody strategies. 87 are beating this year. Ibm, you know, today, but qualcomm, you know, its jpmorgan, its a lot of staples, a lot of tech, a lot of industrials. I mean, it doesnt concentrate in a sector. Tom, good to see you. Great to see you guys. Tom lee back with us. Pete, what do you buy in this scenario, if you believe what tom just said . One of the thing you talked about is financials. Ill go to karens favorite, bank of america. They reported last week the stocks been moving to the upside. They reversed after their earnings as well. Today was higher once again. It never really followed Goldman Sachs. But yesterday, 82,000 of the july 15 calls were blocked. Thats a real commitment there. When i see people step in like that, suddenly today, look, open interest 93,000, that tells me the financials specifically, those names that are trading underwater, in other words, you look at what this thing is trading low book . Well below book. Its around 21, 22. Stocks trading in the low teens. I think the opportunity there for growth is much better. Thats why ive said time and time again, love jpmorgan. I think the best management there is in the financial world. But not as much upside as i think bank of america. Okay. You like bank of america. You like citi even more. I would just say if the fed is back in play, the perverse thing here is actually the banks look pretty interesting, right . Even though the fed was knocking the market on its tail. What we want is the goldilocks where the fed manages this perfect landing. Theyre not going to do it. Volatility is too low right now. The market is not going to scream hee r higher. I think we said this last night, i think the vix is going to have 230 moments. 13 . The greatest opportunity. The reason i dont disagree with you, but i would say this, for those that want to, and im one of them that wants to ride along with what toms talking about right now, yes, there are going to be bumps. You own spider puts against your portfolio so you can ride along and not miss these kind of runs that were seeing. I actually sold jpmorgan today which i havent done in a long, long time. People flipped out about the oil exposure, which was so overdone. Jamie dimon buys 2 million shares. Now this great company, its not expensive. But relative to the other two i think theres less upside. What about wells . Cramer said if Oil Continues its recovery, wells is tied very much to where that goes. And that wells is a stock i love wells fargo. To a certain extent with bank of america and jpmorgan. Theyre all the same, very Similar Companies to me. If youre asking me where i want to be in the banks, it continues to be in the banks that has more modest managements and conservative managements. I mention this, gdx, look at that today, another 52week high. Up 4 . Petes talking about it. Theres clearly something going on in the gold market. Riding that gold. Dont look now, but old media stocks like time warner and cbs are killing netflix this year. Tesla shares tanking on a Consumer Reports article that says the model x has some serious Quality Control issues. What is the problem . The writer will be here to explain. Yahoo out with a beat. Intel cutting 11 of its work force, some 12,000 jobs. The stocks falling as well. The latest headlines from both Conference Calls when fast returns. A fair price, quality service, and that horrible smells are really good at hiding. Oh, boy. There it is. Ohh. Ooh. [ gags ] so when you need a house cleaner or an exterminator, we can help you get the job done right, guaranteed. Get started today at angies list, because your home is where our heart is. Great time for a shiny floor wax, no . Not if you just put the finishing touches on your latest masterpiece. Timings important. Comcast business knows that. Thats why you can schedule an installation at a time that works for you. Even late at night, or on the weekend, if thats what you need. Because you have enough to worry about. I did not see that coming. Dont deal with disruptions. Get Better Internet installed on your schedule. Comcast business. Built for business. Welcome back to fast money. Old media versus new media kicking off our top trades tonight. Since the start of the year, socalled old media stocks are on fire. Time warner up a whopping 16 . And cbs also seeing gains of more than 16 . Netflix shares, however, after last nights earnings are down nearly 16 in the same time frame. Whats going on, pete . The problem is, people are looking towards value. They had to produce they did not produce well enough. Its not good enough right now, especially the way netflix has been trading. People are staring at all the various stocks that trade with these incredible multiples. Theres not much room to make a mistake. Go to the old line media, however, they seem to be doing well. I agree with cramer, he talked about the fact that they are competing with hbo. Thats where hes looking. Hes not looking at the amazons of the world and hulus and so forth. He was looking toward hbo, and he thinks they can beat hbo. Its not just about hbo. Thats not really the point. Theres competition, no doubt about it. Whats troubling to me, my basic view as a guy that invests around the world is the cultural assimilation of the whole netflix model is something you cannot guarantee in certain parts of the world. They couldnt explain why international sales, they launched the rest of the world, they power packed it and jammed it all in the First Quarter. It should be soaring right now. The International Numbers should have been so much better. They cant tell you why. Stock traded horrible today, afterhours last night we were saying, hey, give it a chance tomorrow. Big buyin. Closed on the lows. Closed below 95. I think the stock goes lower. Its a sentiment shift thats happened here. I think the guys this morning made some pretty good points, cramer and faber. When things are going on, you look at the great shows. Today its focused on amazons competition now coming down the pike. Youre a fan of chips, though, right . No doubt. Eric estrada. I loved that show. Lets keep moving. I was going to say, there are chips out there. There was a briannea, and there was another female cop that i thought was keep digging. Sergeant gerrard, too, i think, right . I actually think it was gerrardo. Are you digging a hole . Where are we going . Drop the shovel, man. Drop the shovel and walk off. As we head to break, heres a look at yahoo going higher and intel falling hard. Well bring you the market moving headlines as they break and get instant analysis. Im scott walker. Youre watching fast money on cnbc. In the meantime, heres what else is coming up on fast. That sums up the emerging markets the last year. But a new note from bank of america has investors taking another look. Well tell you what has the bulls so excited. Plus, tesla shares falling, after Consumer Reports said the model x faces a, quote, quality issue. What you talking about . The writer behind the article will be here to explain when fast money continues. Thanks man. Imagine if the things you bought every day earned you miles to get to the places you really want to go. With the united mileageplus explorer card, youll get a free checked bag, 2 united club passes. Priority boarding. And 30,000 bonus miles. Everything you need for an unforgettable vacation. The united mileageplus explorer card. Imagine where it will take you. Welcome back to fast money. Im seema mody with a news alert on the s p 500. Global payments is set to join the index s p 500, close its acquisition of heartland Payment System around april 22nd, giving it a market cap that pushes the company

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