Markets. The market closing at another high. A move thats got everyone scratching their head. Earliee today, howard hudnick, brought up what could be the reason why. Its a riskon world. If im going to retire some day, ive got to make some money, what am i going to buy. Im going to buy stocks. And he might be on to something. In fact, take a look at this chart, courtesy of bank of america. The number of people over the age of 65 is growing. And growing fast. Thats the orange line there. Could it be that in a world with no yield, there is no alternative to stocks. Brian kelly, the biggest bear listen, thats my biggest fear. Everybodys worried about the market falling apart. My fear is we get some kind of a meltup. It looks like were starting to have that. That chart that we just showed there of people getting older, to me that ultimately is the biggest bearish case for the markets. Ultimately the people are going to retire, start drawing that income. But between here and there, maybe thats what it is. Im not buying into it. To me, nothing changed fundamentally. But every day the market keeps going higher. The buy orders are coming in. People are buying diskrin natally. Fundamentals havent driven anything here. Possibly the intended consequences of this are the debt refi ratios are picking up dramatically. Which means bankrupt firms are actually able to survive another day. In fact, effectively at significantly lower rates. Were in a place where i think the bridge to the other side is actually working. And if you look at credit and commodities, things are i mean, ive been off the desk for most of the last week. Where did it close up today . 51 and change. For that is that a good thing . Its a good thing if youre a banker or oil partnership. Now oil is up almost 100 off the lows. People are spending more on gasoline. So theyre not buying retail. Maybe the bridge to the other side is there. To me, it just seems like its not a very sustainable type of thing. They didnt spend more when the gas prices were low. I dont look at gas prices, as oil being up a hundred percent. It was at 27 or wherever it touched, artificially low. I think the question is more, why is oil here, not that its here. If its here, only on the supply diminution, thats one thing. But i do think theres demand there as well. To me demand is a u. S. Economy, a Global Economy thats not dead. Which to me is a good thing. You guys are actually saying its not just demographic trend or what, there are fundamentals underpinned in this. Ive been saying for a long time the fundamentals in oil, price was not truth. Some of the biggest oil consuming nations in the world, we talked a lot about india today. Their oil demand is up 10 year over year. That grows and grows and grows. Cheap oil is good for them. Cheap oil means demand for producers that have taken so much offline, that the supply side is not even going to be there. Guy, how are you. Nice to sit next to you, by the way. Very brave. Listen, first of all, im not bullish. I thought the s p would stop at 20, 25, kudos to tim and karen that have been steadfast throughout this entire thing. I understand why were higher as well. I get what tim is saying. My concern, or b. K. s concerns as well, the stock market is, in my world, is not cheap by any metric whatsoever, right . But people are being forced in risk assets. Maybe thats been the game all along and to your point, maybe it is a bridge to something. My biggest fear is, though, that you have to bet Central Banks will not take any missteps. Again, the corners that theyre all painting themselves into continues to get smaller and smaller. I think at a certain point something happens that derails it. Clearly thats not the concern right now. Theres no problem with expressing concern about central bank experiments that to me are in a very new place. But its how you manifest that in a trade and how you actually put this stuff on. And trying to gain a black swan event is something thats impossible. Its been very, very painful for anybody thats tried to do it, because in fact even though things have gotten more absurd, i agree, brian kelly, ecb starts buying more bonds today, dont think that didnt have a massive impact around the rest of the world, but the bottom line is, i dont see where this stops. And i think tina is the trade. This is no alternative. Thats where we are. Tina is the trade. Thats the case and youre going to get a meltup, thats fine. But ha we saw in december and january, what got me so bearish is what you see Interest Rates rising, that will stop this thing dead in its tracks. Not necessarily about a 25 basis point, but start to see inflation manifest itself in oil, commodities, those types of things, when the fed has to raise rates and or some of our International Creditors sell off bonds, that will stop this bull market. I thought it was happening in january. I actually think if these things start to rally, thats good stuff. Inflation, we want inflation. We want Commodity Prices to be doing what theyre doing. I think ultimately thats a sign of things getting healthier. Looks like theres acknowledgement on the desk of the force that tina has in these markets. In this environment, you guys are a little more on the cautious side. You see tina, you acknowledge the risk, you believe there are fundamentals that underpin this as well. How do you invest in this environment . Its actually despite the fact that the stock market was going to sell off, what i think is going up continues to go up. Look at gold today. Look at gold miners today. Look at how resilient the bond market continues to be. Ill say that the tlt is still a buy. I do think tenyear goes to 1 1 4. German bonds, 30year rates here in the united states, it all points to the bond market continuing to get squashed down. At some point b. K. Is going to be right and the bond yields are going to explode higher. But i think they go lower first. All of our jobs is not to make sure b. K. Is right, its to make money in the market. I can tell you ive been concerned about the s p 500. Im not really trading that. What i am doing, though, is i bought some tlt today, because we had a very good auction. I bought gold and silver. If we have that inflationary type of scare or increase, gold and silver will do well. As a hedge or maybe the dollar is a hedge, the gold is a hedge, long the u. S. Dollar if the fed raises Interest Rates. The Glass Half Full side of it. Karen, what do you do . If some of these things happen and the fed does raise, i dont really get the gold play there. Okay . I thought part of the gold play, well get to it more i guess with peter, and hell yell about it, and i dont know if ill understand it more. But to me, the feds raising. I dont see that as necessarily bullish for gold. What do you do here . Nothing really different. The vix is low. Hedge your portfolio for not a lot of money. Emerging markets have had the biggest move since yellen, the payroll number. Even things like the mexican peso, which is more of a barometer of things oversold. 3520 on the eem, thats a level to watch. Again, we talk charts and rich ross is going to talk cool stuff, the head and shoulders bottom on emerging, very interesting. Thats the bottom of the neckline. It looks like emerging could explode. Its in the currencies. Thats where youll see the most out30r78 answer. Talking all technical here. Traders stayed op the sidelines, in fact volume is at its lowest level since the week of christmas, leading some to question whether its a bad sign for this rally. Lets go off the charts with rich ross. Rich . Hi, melissa. Thank you. The chart that i have behind me here is the volume on the diamond etf. As you pointed out, the volume is actually lower than the half day that precedes christmas. The good news is, you dont have to worry about that. I stared at a thousand charts a day, and this is not one of them. You see volume surge back here. This is stocks collapsing, volatility rising. People panic out, but they dont panic in. Look at this, what happens here. The market rallies. And volume, just erodes away. We continue to rally. So once again, we panic out, we dont panic in. Classic market psychology. Now, we all know the world is a scary place. We shouldnt even get out of bed in the morning if you read the newspaper or the internet. But when you look at the chart of the s p 500, its not scary at all. Its a pretty bullish chart. Broken out from a nice monthlong period of consolidation. This could give you another 80 to 100 points of upside if you ignore the news. We could go a little bit further, give yourself a nice head and shoulders continuation pattern that gives you upside to 2420, not tomorrow, but over time. When we zoom out, look at this longer term, look, once again, im a technician, i focus purely on the price action of the market itself. If we get a breakout from the multiyear trading range, to a fresh alltime high, thats accompanied by an expansion of breadth across the board with a weaker dollar to support crude, credit and emerging market currencies, the three biggest culprits for the decline back in january, thats particularly bullish. You take the height of this pattern, project that up. Around 2400 over time. Obviously as we know, theres plenty of things that can derail it. Sticking to the charts themselves, the world is the opposite of a scary place. Upside to 2400 over time. Is that the upper band of that Little Channel that you drew straight across in the s p 500 . What will get you to convincingly right now this is the forecast based on that. But does the s p have to actually breach that upper line for you to be convinced . I think clearly as a technician, you want to wait for the break. You dont want to anticipate. If youre going to feel better about the world on a breakout, you should start feeling better about it right now. All of the action across Asset Classes for me suggest that youre going to get that breakout once again. The expansion of market breadth is quite dramatic. This is not a big call to say were getting a breakout. Were talking 20 s p points here. I think the breakout is imminent. Were talking one week to one month. The fed and brexit will fall by the wayside like y2k. I dont think well have to melt up. 2180, 2220, you get there. Richard ross, thank you. Ive been reticent to bring this up. What are we, in june . Check this out. Its early in the year, right . Well, halfway. The low we made on february 11th, i think was 1810 in the s p. Well below 2015s low. The high of 2015 was 2135. What does that all mean . Theres actually potential in the s p for an outside year to the upside. Win i dont think ive ever seen in my lifetime. Now, i dont want to bring it up because its june and theres still a half to play. But its worth keeping an eye on. What do you think . I think weve talked about charts that look pretty interesting. Obviously ones that technically rich was looking at the s p. Look at the euro stocks 50. Talk about brexit and talk about things that are really under the weight of i think some news that could change dramatically. Even though a lot of people are trading the u. S. Market like brexit is okay, and chinas okay. Even with a stronger euro, you have this entire index down 20 off the highs. Theres an argument for Earnings Growth in the ecb that will continue to support this. Up next, something is happening in the Global Markets that hasnt happened since 2010. It might have you thinking twice before buying. Well explain. Plus, take a look at restoration hardwa hardware falling off the cliff in the afterhours session. Goldman sachs sounding the alarm that market despair is right around the corner. Theyre starting to sound a lot like our friend. Hell join us when fast money returns. I asked my dentist if an electric toothbrush was going to clean better than a manual. He said sure. But dont get just any one. Get one inspired by dentists, with a round brush head. Go pro with oralb. Oralbs rounded brush head cups your teeth to break up plaque and rotates to sweep it away. And oralb delivers a clinically proven superior clean versus sonicare diamondclean. My mouth feels super clean oralb. Know youre getting a superior clean. Im never going back to a manual brush. Welcome back to fast money. Very big move since the start of 2016, and with the current multiple of 18, global stocks are the most expensive theyve been since dating back to 2010. Tim . Again, we had this conversation in the first block. We know why stocks should be trading expensive. In fact, there are other parts of the world that have recovered from even more dreadful conditions. The msci world, youve got a place here where youve got a very strong argument that i think this thing can continue to go higher. You also have valuations that to me have possibly a tailwind from the currency benefits. Balance sheets also should be rewarded, because i think the Balance Sheets across the g3 and mcsi world are as good as thechs been in a long time. The valuations should trade higher. Dividend yields are better. Earning yields, tina, there she is again. Heres the thing that worries me. Look at Deutsche Bank here. Despite all this cheering, Deutsche Bank, one of the largest banks in the world, with the largest derivatives books in the world, down today. Spanish elections coming up. A lot of things coming out there. After this run, i would be reticent to just be saying, weve got to buy the world. We talked about m sci that its not the greatest proxy. But its not about current year earnings. Because Global Growth story has slowed down. But the growth actually looks pretty good. What i would look at further year out, and that trajectory actually seems not so expensive to me. You have to believe that it will that growth will return. Yeah. I believe that will happen. All right. Buy into the future. We had flash gordon on last night. Lets look at ewg again. That has been in a steep downtrend since the middle of 2014. Lower lows, higher highs. What we talked about, getting ahead of it what was the word pete used last night or flash used. Preemptive. Preemptive. No strike like a preemptive strike. With that said, id rather buy at 28 1 2 to breakout than 26 1 2 right here. Well give you the stocks e theyre betting will rise. Heres what else is coming up on fast. America, meet the man who could be your next president. I dont know what i said. I dont remember. I dont remember. Maybe thats what i said. What are the stocks that could trump the market if the donald becomes president . Were naming names. Plus, heres what happened last time tim seymour squared off against peter schiff. And theyre raring for a rematch. When fast money returns. eeeeohmumohweh hush my darling. dont fear my darling. the lion sleeps tonight. hush my darling. man snoring dont fear my darling. the lion sleeps tonight. woman snoring take the roar out of snore. Yet another innovation only at a sleep number store. Images, videos, social updates. We call it dark data. 80 is invisible to most businesses. The ibm cloud has tools that can help see dark data and put it to work. Hello, my name is watson. Working with watson in the ibm cloud, we can help an Energy Company predict pipeline corrosion. And help a startup to use social data to predict market trends. Now businesses can get more out of their data. Thats what the ibm cloud is built for. Welcome back to fast money. Restoration hardware shares tanking after hours. Courty regan has the story. Melissa, shares falling sharply after hours. Issuing guidance that was way below consensus. Gary freedman noting head winds in the market. A general slowdown in the Luxury Consumer market. In order to curtail the promotional cycle and pull back on the discount that has been occurring, Restoration Hardware began a Membership Program for 100 a year. It was a builtin 25 discount. As well as other services. But the company now says the shoppers are taking longer to close those transactions under the new model because theres no urgency to do so from the sales pressure if you get the 25 off all the time. Another big unresolved issue is the production delays for its new modern product line. The ceo still thinks it can be a billiondollarplus brand eventually, assuming the models are actually ready to shift at some point. Courtney, remind us, this is a retailer that said because of Market Conditions and the turmoil in the stock market, people were reluctant to close deals on sofas, et cetera. The market has come back tremendously since february lows. And they havent seen any benefit whatsoever. Exactly. Thats whats really interesting. And last quarter, the ceo specifically called out areas like texas, miami, this time in the release he just said in general. In areas where energy and currency has been a problem for the market, its also been a problem for us. The call doesnt start for another couple minutes. We dont have anything further at this point. Its not surprising the ceo didnt flipflop as the market has turned back around. Courtney, thank you. A lot of excuses from this company at this point. Right. Excuses dont deserve a good multiple, thats for sure. It sounds like the macro headwinds, but theyre specific to them, issues, cost, and thats one of the really not their production problems, i mean, the Customer Service problems are real. Arent those things that they can overcome . When people look at a stock like this, i think it gets lumped into, this is effectively a retailer. Granted, its in housingwares and whatnot. Theyre going the way of everybody else, why cant i order this online. I think its good news theyre having stock outages. Theyll fix them, and we know that. It could be 70 , and it could be one or two vendors. If you actually believe this company is suffering more from its ineptness, if thats a word, then that could be a good thing. Or fixable. Theyve been around for a little while already, right . So some of these issues have plagued them throughout. Now there are competitors that do it much better. Do you believe its Company Specific or do you think theres a problem with the global consumer, or consumers appetite for buying bigticket items . Until amazon cracks, comes out with a bad quarter and says were not selling anything, youll say its restoration specific or whatever it is. Now its macys specific. Until amazon cracks, youre going to be able to say that. So amazon is a trade in that. If you want to buy something at an alltime high. Inventories up 27 year over year. With sales growth of 8 . Which means by definition margins are going to contract. Which is exactly what happened. To