Later, the most hated man on twitter just got banned but that may not be good for twitters business model. Well explain. First well explain with old tech taking the markets to new highs. Kiss ki cisco breaking out, microsoft. Intel hitting a new high. Old tech has been on fire. Is it still the best place to be despite intels slight miss tonight . Tim, lets start with you. I think its stock by stock. In intels case actually i think youve got a company on evaluation metric, first of all, coming into these numbers was trading at the highend historical range. Very important business. The pc business has come back. The Margin Expansion is very interesting. But i go back to microsoft which blew out their numbers today, or did they . Against all relative to what you were expecting, year over year growth of 2 on revenues is not that amazing. Even though you can point to substantial growth in every segment of their business, the movement to the cloud today is very exciting. Who knows what thats going to be tomorrow. I still think at some point things might be getting a little ahead of themselves in the rally. Would you pick up the broad theme, though, here . I think its dividend. I think its the hunt for yield and the dividend. These are businesses that are good, steady businesses, not crazy valuations, but the dividend because people are so thirsty for dividends, hungry, whatever you want to say desperate. That has put a floor under these stocks that i dont know if that fully takes into account the risk of owning an equity versus a stock. But nevertheless the market wants to leave it that way. Pete, you had this theme yesterday. It still comes down to three things. Dividend, we were talking about these yields. You look at intel, its 3 , you look at cisco, microsoft and a variety of names. You get yield, you get growth and if youve got valuation, what a beautiful trifecta youve got. Also as you look at earnings season, what are people focused on right now . Theyre focused on where is the growth, is there growth. Last night we saw people looking at microsoft and saying, hey, look, their numbers were fantastic. The cloud is where were looking and thats where the growth is. We know pc is weakening somewhat and will continue to weaken. Tonight initially people were looking at the revenue miss which was not much of a miss. It was almost a flat number but you look at the revenue and suddenly the stock is down 3 . People are starting to refocus on whats important and what is intels new direction and i think all three of the names i just mentioned, cisco, intel and microsoft, i think all three of those are names that can go a little bit higher. But i think in the case of microsoft, its run awfully fast. Guy, karen says its about the search for dividends. Pete is saying its the search for growth. Where are you . Its all those things. Clearly dividend search is paramount. Look at the move at at t and verizon over the last six months. Those were stocks mired in range and over the last year, year and a half, those stocks have broken out. I think theyre both right. The name that sticks out to me is qualcomm. Remember on monday your first night here we had dan nathan and carter over at the smartboard saying what ia bullish setup it was to earnings and thats exactly what happened. That was a great quarter. The valuation of qualcomm i think is fair. They seemingly have their problems behind them and have a great balance sheet. So the one i think can continue to perform is qualcomm. But there were expectations that qualcomm might disappoint coming into it and push the stock down. Thats a special case, isnt it . Look at intel, a couple of quarters ago we were talking about the death of the pc and these guys were tied to a business that was going nowhere. There was a lot of bad news pricing in this stock, whether it was china, chips or the core part of their royalties business. A lot of that stuff is in the price. The question i have for the market right now is the expectations for so many things were so low and things have surprised enough to the upside that havent we gotten a little euphor euphoric. Were out of place in this rally where if you look at bull bear indicators, market hasnt been this bullish in a long time. Ultimately i think you have a place where things are very complacent. Let me pick up that precise point. One of wall streets most outspoken bulls, to the point that tims making, turning more cautious near term with the s p just a fraction away from his 2016 price target. Take a listen to what tony dwyer said on last weeks fast money. When you have two 90 upside volume days in a row and never been negative, three, six and 12 months later, your worst case six months later was 10 and that includes this cycle and your median was 29 a year later. I dont i get it. Its hard to buy up 15 to 20 from the low, but the fundamentals are improving. And tony is with us now. So what precisely is the call today . Precisely wall street is littered with strategists where you hit the target and then we change it. So actually we hit by target. The vix is at 11. 5 . When you drop below 12 for the first time in three months, every time youve been higher two weeks later in volatility by an average 20 . So youve kind of reached the target. In addition to that, we had a shock day. Brexit brought a shock day. After a shock day, you typically get a median gain of 1. 3 . Were up almost 6 . Thats the threemonth gain you get so i stick my by sixmonth target. There is no way when credit is like this, the real fed funds rate is negative, the yield curve is still positive, the Chicago Fed NationalFinancial Condition substress indices are still very, very low, theres no way you want to get negative. What you want to do is buy at the better times and thats when youre oversold. To get a broader context, you are very bullish over where were going to go over the medium term. For people that are holding for the longer term, you think this is a great setup. I think this is a fantastic setup. You know, thats going to get my twitter feed going ballistic. But credit is listen, unless you think youre going into a recession, you dont want to get negative. Its not whether youre a buyer, its where youre a buyer. So if you can buy at a little bit better prices, i think thats the right call. We made the same call in march. Let me ask you, new money coming into the market today, what would you how invested would you say that new money should be . My input to the clients were institutional in the u. S. , so my input to the clients was lower your gross. Dont get negative, lower your gross and neutralize. As the t said, ive been very offensive in the market. I just want to lower that offensive bet. So, karen, if i was sitting next to you on your desk, id say lets lower our exposure and neutralize. However, if im looking out for that 6 to 12month period that i highlighted before, you want to be offensive, financials, information technology, the fundamentals obviously are pointing to that. And i want to kind of a basket of the more cyclical sectors, the industrials, the materials and energy space. I hear what youre saying and i kind of said the same thing, but i also know that on the other side a lot of investors are not that tactical and in fact cant you run the risk here, i mean if your view at the end of 2013 is 2375, why bother . Why bother to play neutral as opposed to just stay i was on the Halftime Report and got the same question when i did it before. Youre looking for a 3 to 5 correction, why bother. Corrections are only natural, normal and healthy until they actually happen and then all of a sudden youre down 3 in a day like we were after brexit and were going into recession, the Global Economy is going to fail. So i want to be in front of that. I want to remind investors unless youre going into a recession, you do not want to get negative on weakness, you want to use it to your advantage to become more offensive. You cant do that unless youve raised a little bit of cash or lowered your offensive bets a little bit. Theres one caveat that keeps coming up again, unless youre going into recession. Correct. Youre sure were not going into recession. Is that a view that youve held for some time . It is. Or is it on the basis of the employment report two weeks ago and the retail sales . Is it a fluctuating view . No. Theres three indicators that i use to determine if youre going into a recession. Number one, since the 1950s, you have not gone into a recession with a negative real fed funds rate. Its still minus 1. Its been flat lined for six years. Number two, the yield curve is still positive. You typically invert the yield curve by 15 months before you go into a recession. But lets say were japan and the yield curve doesnt matter anymore and the fed is pushing on a string. Whats the crosscheck for that . The Chicago Fed NationalFinancial Condition subindices measure. They measure shadow banking, they measure banking. 10 five indicators including cds. The whole gambit of every indicator. Theyre showing very, very, very, very little stress. So ive got all three indicators point towards economic activity. Weve inflected earnings now. And the earnings are just going to start to grow and the multiple is turning higher. So our target this year was based on an 18 multiple, when it had been 16 in february when i changed it. 18 multiple on 121 in earnings. Im now at 130 on earnings and 18 multiple for next year and probably 2 conservative with a 2340 target. Have a great evening. Thank you. Guy, lets trade it. Hes been spot on. A 3 move from this level gets, what is that 60 or there s p handles which brings you right back to the levels which makes a lot of sense. What continues to scare me is the fact that what encourages tim and you, that bond yields continue to be stubbornly low. I dont know at what point they go too low and this unraveling the whole thing. Obviously you have an answer to that. How about the Global Economy gets a little bit better, which its seemingly doing with the fundamentals of Corporate America being reported. What if the fed is kind of stuck in neutral at a low level because of brexit and other issues and you get a higher long end, a la 2012 into 2013 and the financials go to the upside like they did then. The last time the tenyear note yield dropped below 1. 5 and the yield curve flattened like it did now, it wasnt a time to be a seller, it was the time to get offensive. Still trading it around the desk. I think there are two trades. Youve got vix under 12. Stock replacement, in other words, youre selling your stock position and buying options to being able to participate on the upside or youre buying protection right now on that portfolio so you can ride the bull to the upside. One of those two. Otherwise i think theres a lot of foolish trades going on. If you look at Morgan Stanleys number, year over year theyre down 9 . Thats a shallow fall off and i think these guys all have operational margins to the upside if things turn yield curve. About 15 bips steeper than where we were on the lows of brexit. Watch the dollar. But i think theres only so much the dollar is going to move. Its had a nice move. Emerging markets absolutely outperform here. Im with pete. I like what i own. You always think what you own is great, priced really well, which i think it is. But i need protection, its cheap now. Im going to get blasted, like i do, but its protection. It is insurance, i get a lot of pushback. Up next on the program, intel lower on earnings. The Conference Call is under way. Well bring you the latest headlines from that. Plus twitter cracking down on abuse and banning one of its most polarizing users from ever using its platform again. But was the move bad for the business . Later, stocks are at alltime highs at the republican president ial nominee donald trump gains ground in opinion polls. Is it more than just a coincidence . More fast money after this. Welcome to opportunitys knocking, where selfproclaimed financial superstars pitch you investment opportunities. Ive got a fantastic deal for you gold with the right pool of investors, theres a lot of money to be made. But first, investors must ask the right questions and use the smartcheck challenge to make the right decisions. Youre not even registered; im done with you i can. I can. Savvy investors check their financial pros background by visiting smartcheck. Gov in a world held back by compromise, businesses need the agility to do one thing another. Only at t has the network, people, and partners to help companies be. Local global. Open secure. Because no one knows like at t. Welcome back to fast money. Intel falling after hours. Josh lipton has the details. Josh, whats the main problem here . Well, simon, intels stacy smith was actually just on cnbc where he sounded a bullish tone for the rest of the year. Take a listen. We have insight into what we think some of the big cloud customers are going to buy. We have new products coming into the data center that we think will give them some capabilities that theyll buy a richer mix of products for us. So that momentum in the data center and particularly in the cloud as we go into the back half of the year we think give us more than seasonal growth in q3 and q4. Investors, though, at least here in the after hours not as excited. That stock had enjoyed a nice, recent pop so maybe some disappointment in the results. Revenue from that kline Computing Group coming in at 7. 3 billion, better than expected. But the data center group, so chips for servers coming in at 4 billion. The street wanted to see 4. 2. On the other hand Gross Margins at 62 , that did beat and that revenue guide is higher than analysts had forecast. So on this Conference Call, which is kicking off here in just a few minutes, analysts will have some questions about the state of pc demand, data center growth, head count reductions and also those reports that intel did get a chip order from apple for that new iphone. Guys, back to you. Thank you very much, josh. Lets trade intel and the chip stocks. Of course weve also got qualcomm tonight. This stock was down a lot more an hour or so ago when they reported in terms of intel. Tim pointed this out earlier in the week and i think its worth repeating. Were bumping up against levels we last saw at the end of the 2014. Whether or not thats interesting or not, well see. Its something to keep in mind. I think the quarter was fine, valuation is reasonable and dividend is great. But like cisco has now proven itself to the upside breaking 30. 5, i think intel has to prove itself. I think its data center and things where people have tried to be most excited. Those are the places where they have missed the most today. Theres nothing awful here but it gets to a place where think about where sentiment has changed towards the chips and the entire semis to where it is now. I dont think the arm deal should be implying a different multiple on the entire sector. This is a company that gets 90 of its business from pc and server. Theyre doing a great job and i think theyre neutral here. I dont think you run out and sell it but youre not buying it today. Karen. Some puts and takes on this. It was fine, it was fine, but the only thing wrong with it is that its run up so much in the last very short while. Last month alone its up 10 . Youre running into 52week highs. When you bring up Something Like qualcomm, thats well below the 52week highs. So this is one of the many names, new highs today. We talk about cisco and microsoft pushing closer and closer, but intel, because of microsoft, already ran into the number. So to guys point, now its basically flat lining where from we came in this morning. They didnt do enough to impress us. Tim is right. The internet of things and the data center, that area we expected more. We didnt get more, but i think in the next couple quarters stacy smith souned very, very positive about the cloud. And more to come with the earnings call. So which is the better, qualc m qualcomm, if you remember to commit fresh money tonight, qualcomm or intel. Im into intel right now you are paring back, wenren you . Yeah, i was. Maybe they break out but they havent. It was a perfect opportunity for you to say to pete, pete, you know, we play this game would you rather. Thats what we do here. I know you dont do it in the morning. Youre very uptight. But heres the thing, would you rather, so here we go. Would you rather qualcomm or intel at these levels . Would you rather, what would you do . I think qualcomm has some mojo behind it. A lot of the problems are behind them. They have a great balance sheet, valuation is reasonable. I think people are not in this name enough. Id rather qualcomm ahead of intel. Thanks for asking, simon. What a great game, guy. He can play it by himself. He tends to do that. Still ahead on the program, crude oil stating a stunning rally so far this year but is the hot trade about to come to a screeching halt . A top technician will weigh in and tell you what hed rather. Youre watching fast money firon cnbc, first in money worldwide. This man could be your next president. Then its a deal . Yes. We can have pizza the wrong way. Crust first. And the stock market seems to love it. And one wall street watcher will tell us why the rally might just be getting started. Plus, one of the most hated men on twitter just got banned from twitter. And it just set off a tweet storm. Twitters investors should be very worried right now. And well tell you what the war between a blogger and the social giant could mean for twitter investors, when fast money returns. Narrator the best place to find adventure. Kubo come on, this way. Narrator . Is in the forest. Kubo wow. Narrator so grab your loved ones monkey dont even. Narrator and explore a world of possibilities. Kubo its beautiful. Narrator visit discovertheforest. Org to find the closest forest or park to you. Welcome back to fast money. Twitter taking a big step in curbing abuse on the social media platform by permanently banning a well followed and arguably polarizing blogger. Julia has the details live. Twitter has banned milo, a Technology Editor at conservative breitbart who has 338,000 followers. Now twitter didnt comment specifically on his account which rallied hundreds of twitter commenters to attack leslie jones, the costar of the recent ghostbuster with sexist and racist comments. Milo tweeted that jones is barely literate and said if at first you dont succeed because your work is terrible, play the victim. Now, he defend end his tweets on power lunch. Theres absolutely no evidence whatsoever that im in any way responsible for inciting harassment against anybody else. Its just an absurd claim and theres no proof of it. What there is proof of that leslie jones did not like my review. I teased leslie jones. So sue me, whats the big deal. Twitter claims that it temporarily loc