Transcripts For CNBC Fast Money 20160801 : vimarsana.com

Riding a bicycle. If you told me two weeks ago that apple was going to rally 7 , crude woul see losses of 13 and biotech stocks would rally 13 , id say youre crazy. What is going on here, tim . Lets talk about apple quickly. I dont think anything changed with their business, a although we got an earnings print, if you lins to the community, one of the things theyre saying is they can they think trade at a higher multiple. Anywhere from 13 to 14 depending on what the e prk s outlook is. Because the growth is better. Were getting into a period where you have this refresh cycle and inn some of the risks around the business are out of the way. I think thats what the market has gone through. And i think the decorlation of oil to the s p is something were quoing to talk about here, be we have a place where really nothing haze changed. Were still many this melt up mode and then the absence of the fed and any major macro event, thats whats happened to this market. Nothing is changing yet. Seems like this may be interpreted as positive of healthier action. We have money going into the areas of the market that have not had favor this year. Would you rather be buying a stock, 20 Earnings Growth or been inflated. Look at the bye tech space. The overhang is obviously an election year, i get it. But you look at the bye tech, the larger names, gilead. Big cap stocks numbers and i think were come tog a point now where people have the confidence and the growth. I dont know how much tim let on, how much the consensus was so negative on apple. Got that out of the way. The rotation of stacks out of dividend, but when you look at the rotation, xlu is off 2 from its highs. Xlp are off 2 from their highs. Gdx, monitor, still up 122 year to date. To me, i dont know if that really is it worthwhile event to rotate off dividend. I think the market is confused. Definitely has energy for sale. But i think its confused on dividends. Doesnt know what to do. What should you do . What are you doing . Its a rotation of the market and just been time and time again. Weve seen different sectors, but look back to february, where the xle was then. Where oil was under 30. Suddenly, you get this huge run up to 50, now, youve pulled back. Rotating out, the chevrons, all the rest of those, then everybodys looking. You talk about dividends, but where do they tart to shift. Even tarting at brexit. You start to see the shift, you look for value, but growth and dividend. Starting to look at semiconductors. Theyre hitting 52week highs. Look at tech. Ibm trading about 161. A lot of these were left for dead, but because of what we learned, in certain areas of the financials, better than the worst thing that expected. Then apple, the bigs of the big, then look at amazon, google, facebook and weve gone time and time again with these financials. Zpl. Financials are going to be dead for the foreseeable future. Are you guys both saying the same thing, which is that its swrus about rotation and that nothing is really changing . The deck chairs have moved around the table and were still at all time highs. I think the money is till on the sidelines. Guys are waiting to chase this market, which means to me, theres still risk to the upside. Having said that, theres a greater risk. Numbers, thats whats strange. We know what they can do. Google, what can they do. We knew zpl could they deliver . The energy suffers in general, the etfs that were exxon mobil and chevron. They represent a massive percentage of dividend names. What i need to know know at this point is that 40 of the s p 500 has reported there abouts, so what do you do . Chase this rotation, this shifting of deck chairs at this point in do you still go into technology, into biotech . The most value is going to be in techland. Remember, if theres as much cash on sidelines as people said. And within technology. I think within technology, the semis arent really what does it for me. Its probably youre chasing growth. First of all, google gis you the best combination of both. It would be google, apple. And it might be cisco. Gl so, within the rotation, what are you buying . What do you sell . On biotech, i think theres going to be head winds, no question. Technology, id sell near term. I think you sell the metals, technology and im buy e of biotech. Where we stand now. Gl its up 25 . Six month high. From a relative value perspective, i like biotech. I like these Technology Names and ive been in them and ill continue to be in them. I see no reason to be out of cisco, no reason to get out of these chip names. Not necessarily the big names, but i like intel. I think it has a chance. There was weakness in certain areas, we kind of new some of that, but we were a little surprised because anything related to the cloud for intel. Wasnt as good as expected, so that was a disappointment, but the tok was coming off a 52week high. Youre 36 a share. Not far from that now for all the right reasons. They still have growth. Look at ciscos yield. I think you have to lighten up on the travel and leisure stocks. I think zika is going to be a bigger story. We saw the ebola blip. Exxon back down near 84 bucks. Got a major pullback in a name that okay, exxon should not be reacting to top line oil prices. Theres some people that think maybe theyll p able to massage earnings and there may be something out there. But again, youve got a major pullback in big cap oil. Major dividends. Would you buy with that . Sounds like youre saying buy it. Exxon. 2. 2 billion negative and Free Cash Flow to support their dividend. All these companies talked about using Free Cash Flow the to support their dividends. I dont know what its like to talk about this. Not all stock is good as gold. Agree. A lot of these stocks are trading like theyre fearing a global recession. Obviously, thats all been out there. This is not breaking ground. Markets made new highs, but i think this space is trading a little odd to me. Speaking of oil here, the dip below 40 might have been surprising, but now to our next guest who said two weeks ago on fast money. Take a listen. But this point, 08, 09, we continued higher. I think were going lower and crude back to 40. So wheres crude going now and what stocks could soon follow in carter is back at the smart board. Do tell us which one. I think crude probably lower still, but todays, something that looks similar to crude before crude came apart, so wanted to take a look at the metals and mining come plek. Theres an etf that captures this group well. Xme. Ive got here for you a oneyear chart and the lines really speak for themselves. You have a tight relationship between metals and mining and weve had this 20 pullback in crude even as the stocks have continued. Take a look at the oneyear picture, the twoyear picture. The divergence at this point to my eye signals that the plu line is on borrowed time. This is two years against crude. Heres two years against the s p 4040 energy sector. The entire sector and the median stock in the medals an mining is about 2. 7. Exactly the same as the s p foreign energy. So again, playing for some convergence of these two lines. The blue line is going to go the way of the orange to some extent. So, a couple of other charts, this is the actual etf in relation to its price. Its farther above trend than the last six years. Just to put this in context, it goes back to the higher bull market high in 07. This ricochet now steeper than the one coming off of the 09 final crisis low. Thats incredible. And at this point, this is about where you get pullbacks. We havent had that yet. Another thing to look at is in terms of retracement. This low is 12. This 78. A 66 move. 25 takes you to where we closed today at 28. 50. A quarter of the move and you can draw your lines like that. You could draw them like that, but either way, your difficult level, its a crowded space, looks a lot like Certain Energy stocks did before the whole thing came apart. What is the risk to the downside and what level do we need to hold in order to avoid that . You can get things in the order of 15, 20, 25 . Similar the what we saw in crude. Crude piqueded at 51 many change and prints as low as 49 in change today. Within that etf, is there a differentiation between the types miners . Some of the steel, gold as well. Three quarters in here. Not in this they are in that. Certain parts. All right, carter. Thank you. Who agrees . Who says you should stick with medals . I think stick. When ever china starts talking about its fiscal i dont agree. I think this a lot of this basing for me. When ever china utters the words fiscal deficit or increasing that, steel rallied 180 off the february g20 meeting. Ran another 50 , so i think its basing here. Do i think you should jump in . Below 50. Last night, what happened. Gold, steel, everything china up overnight and in the face of that. You look at that and say, why, its because of stimulus. So, you disagree with carter as well. I think steels going to roll over. Pmi was sideways. It was down from 50 to 49. 9. Absolutely years. But steel was up from february 184 . As soon as they increased their deficit. Anyone would be dead on to pull up a chart in u. S. Steel and say this is overextended. But u. S. Steel, this is what i want to say is different medals and miners, the Balance Sheets are significantly better. Theyve been able to lengthen maturities. They have a total free ride to 2021. Thats where people have been wrong about the commodities based on these minors. Steels great, but im sure a lot of people want to know about gold miners in the winning trade. Is now the time to put that into the rotation category and start lightening up . I have been in for a very long period of time and slowly rotate, but mine is a little different. Its to continue to be in, but take money off, so im rolling up and i cant continue to look for more. Slv has been very nice. Gdx pushing, so i still think there is room to your xwe. I think it runs, but im hedging myself by taking some off and rolling up look for more. I think theres a difference, by the way whoa. Whoa. And guy is not here. What he would be saying is if carter is at the apex of his game right now, so we know that and everything he said is very important. I actually think that the medals miners correlation to oil is something that doesnt have the same argument. Were they really subject to the same . I think there are names that are way overextended. When you see a comparative chart like that, the thought is that the correlations because the businesses are correlated or the supply and demand. Whats correlated is nothing to do with that. It is the way people behave. People find things that are on their knees and they run for them because they can make money. I get a double, a triple. The behavior here is whats so correlated and thats important. The behavior and positioning. So, very important to recognize the steel, i mean, obviously, hit a massive run at 250. Mattel, mt is up 54 . This is a name that wasnt as highly shortive. If youre looking to buy the steel names op a pullback. Gold name, i think they pull back as well and id be looking at Something Like that, but mt relative value is a buy. Up next, the man, the myth, the legend. Were talking jamie dimon, telling cnbc today the banks are a buy for the longterm. Maybe not surprising. Our traders aint buying that. Well explain. Plus, biotech stocks surging into sixmonth highs. Analysts will tell us what the street is missing about this group and concerned about august swoon, weve got the three stocks history says will do well in august and one is a scratcher. When fs munz runs. New bikes arent selling guys. What are we gonna do . How about we pump more into promotions . Nah. What else . What if we hire more sales reps . Nah. What else . What if we digitize the whole supply chain . So people can customize their bike before they buy it. That worked better than expected. Ill dial it back. Yeah, dial it back. Just a little. Live business, powered by sap. When you run live, you run simple. Tons of capital, liquidity. Healthy Financial Market makes the country grow. You know, theres regulatory pressure, banks and banks document lifts over time. And our client rs happy. Thats what i worry about. Build the company today and the stock price will take care of itself tomorrow. That was jamie dimon talking to wilfred frost on power lunch today. Saying the big banks are buy for the longterm. He bought in february, pretty much at the low for jpmorgan. I think the banks are interesting. Theyre plagued by the entire set up with regard to the election, which is obviously on him, but i believe the banks are a trading vehicle right now. I wouldnt step in and put my eggs in one basket. I like bank of america. I think thats a stock you want to trade. Well i think heres the difference between yield. I think long growth will steadily been picking up. I think we continue to see massive long growth and thats the key here if we dont have a rise in rates. We need to see a steady pick up of loan growth. I think that could occur. Housing purchases. Theyre going out, first time home buyer, going out into the marketplace. Thai going to shift out of the cities wrrk ever the jobs. Weve seen homebuilder, i think tims here. Up 20 year to date. Management shake up there. But if you look at those things, those have reaped the benefits, but the banks still havent. Its a great time to own the homebuilders. Not so sure. What about credit cards . I understand that you buy a house, you go to home depot, buy product. My longterm feez in the bank, yes, theyre well capitalized, yes, in a much different financial situation. Obviously, the political arenas, the biggest concern now for the banks, do you think rate rs going to rise at some point in the future . I do. So, are you saying, youre saying its a trading vehicle . If youre saying the strengths, the strength of a bank are credit and in home buying and mortgages, then why not just go out and buy the home depot . Buy the credit card. Processing companies. Instead of banks. If were going to pile on. Is whats your view on oil . You think its going lower, right . If it is all these credit issues. The difference is this. Its again about sentiment and ment mentality. People believe weve seen the bottom in oil. We dont know what it was before. People believe the bottom is where rnd in the 30s, low 30s. Theyre comfortable with that. Very different i will say that again, i think this whole thing with the yield curve and its flatness is so overdone when people talk about banks. Banks have made a ton of dough. Weve been much, much lower that that, but banks have had an enormous operational leverage to the main economy. I think jpmorgan is the place to be. Pete. If we got anything out of the earnings cycle which started with jpmorgan, long growth. Whats there. And so because of that, even though were talking about this yield curve and everything else, jamie dimon said its not great. He was buying. 54 bucks a share. Now trading 63. For a sector thats under weight. Extremely under weight in portfolios, but a long shot, right in a sector people are just like biotech, waiting for that chance to step in on valuation alone mainly because theyre fearful of the known. The unknown is whats going to happen with the election and potentially, whats going to happen with rates. Its an unknown variable. Otherwise relatively healthy. Thats usually a mistake. Theres a difference between biotech and banks. You can value a companys pipeline, where as for banks, much more difficult the value what the trading environment will be with the loan growth environment, the m a environment. Pipeline for banks. It all comes down to sentiment and positioning and right now, the positioning is extremely light. People very underweight and im telling you once things turn and theyre going to turn quickly. Youre going to walk in, be like, what the heck, how did it miss that move . To me, its all about the credit cycle and auto numbers tomorrow, very important. If we have a problem, its probably on the auto side. All right, still ahead, tesla agreeing to buy solarcity, but is it a good idea for tesla hair holders . Youre watching fast money on cnbc. Heres what else is coming up on fast. This is your portfolio. This is the stock market in august. And this is your portfolio in august. Any questions . Yes, where should i put my money . Well, we happen to have the three stocks that surge when the america ki goes up. Plus, heres what russian stocks are doing to the s p and were well tell you the other surprising markets kicking the you know what out of the usa when fast money returns. What powers the digital world. Communication. Thats why a cutting Edge University counts on centurylink to keep their global campus connected. And why a Pro Football Team chose us to deliver fiberenabled broadband to more than 65,000 fans. And why a leading car brand counts on us to keep their Dealer Network streamlined and nimble. Businesses count on communication, and communication counts on centurylink. Your but, during the day, fine when yothey can move em on. In the morning. Noon. Evening. Enough is enough its time to use fixodent plus adhesives. With just one application. They give you superior hold, even at the end of the day. So you can keep enjoying your evenings. Fixodent. Strong more like natural teeth. Fixodent and forget it. Its not easy. I was oncei carve working on a bust of Shaquille Oneill in swiss. I havent worked in swiss since. Everyone called me crazy. Things really took off when i got my domain name headsofcheese. Com from godaddy and now theyre selling like hot cakes. Made of cheese. Got a crazy idea you think you can turn into a success . We know you can and weve got a domain for you. Go you. Godaddy. The s p 500 may be at an all time high or close to it, but some surprising countries have been crushing u. S. Equities this year. Seema mody has more. Politics, signs of economic reform and yields are driving investors over stocks overseas, starting with latin america, where brazil and argentina are up 30 on hopes that change of leadership in both countries will warrant change over time. And a rebound in economic growth. In russia, stocks there are up 22 . Oil has come off its lows and inflation in russia has fall ton a rate of 6 down from 15 in 2015. The big stand in asia is indonesia, which has been captivating investor attention ever since pro Business Leader became president. He has been trying to battle corruption therefore alleviating investor fears. Now, all of these factors fuelling the market e the tf, the eem, which is up about 12 versus the s p 500, higher from 206. That continues to trouble investors, whether the rally can kopt even if the medicine does raise rates in september. Specifically, for those countries that are sitting on a lot of dollar denominated dead, so that will be a big test. The fed does raise rates in september, can the emerging market rally sustain. All right, thank you. In the news room with that. So, tim, we got to go to you. Which one . Places where Earnings Growth<\/a> or been inflated. Look at the bye tech space. The overhang is obviously an election year, i get it. But you look at the bye tech, the larger names, gilead. Big cap stocks numbers and i think were come tog a point now where people have the confidence and the growth. I dont know how much tim let on, how much the consensus was so negative on apple. Got that out of the way. The rotation of stacks out of dividend, but when you look at the rotation, xlu is off 2 from its highs. Xlp are off 2 from their highs. Gdx, monitor, still up 122 year to date. To me, i dont know if that really is it worthwhile event to rotate off dividend. I think the market is confused. Definitely has energy for sale. But i think its confused on dividends. Doesnt know what to do. What should you do . What are you doing . Its a rotation of the market and just been time and time again. Weve seen different sectors, but look back to february, where the xle was then. Where oil was under 30. Suddenly, you get this huge run up to 50, now, youve pulled back. Rotating out, the chevrons, all the rest of those, then everybodys looking. You talk about dividends, but where do they tart to shift. Even tarting at brexit. You start to see the shift, you look for value, but growth and dividend. Starting to look at semiconductors. Theyre hitting 52week highs. Look at tech. Ibm trading about 161. A lot of these were left for dead, but because of what we learned, in certain areas of the financials, better than the worst thing that expected. Then apple, the bigs of the big, then look at amazon, google, facebook and weve gone time and time again with these financials. Zpl. Financials are going to be dead for the foreseeable future. Are you guys both saying the same thing, which is that its swrus about rotation and that nothing is really changing . The deck chairs have moved around the table and were still at all time highs. I think the money is till on the sidelines. Guys are waiting to chase this market, which means to me, theres still risk to the upside. Having said that, theres a greater risk. Numbers, thats whats strange. We know what they can do. Google, what can they do. We knew zpl could they deliver . The energy suffers in general, the etfs that were exxon mobil and chevron. They represent a massive percentage of dividend names. What i need to know know at this point is that 40 of the s p 500 has reported there abouts, so what do you do . Chase this rotation, this shifting of deck chairs at this point in do you still go into technology, into biotech . The most value is going to be in techland. Remember, if theres as much cash on sidelines as people said. And within technology. I think within technology, the semis arent really what does it for me. Its probably youre chasing growth. First of all, google gis you the best combination of both. It would be google, apple. And it might be cisco. Gl so, within the rotation, what are you buying . What do you sell . On biotech, i think theres going to be head winds, no question. Technology, id sell near term. I think you sell the metals, technology and im buy e of biotech. Where we stand now. Gl its up 25 . Six month high. From a relative value perspective, i like biotech. I like these Technology Names<\/a> and ive been in them and ill continue to be in them. I see no reason to be out of cisco, no reason to get out of these chip names. Not necessarily the big names, but i like intel. I think it has a chance. There was weakness in certain areas, we kind of new some of that, but we were a little surprised because anything related to the cloud for intel. Wasnt as good as expected, so that was a disappointment, but the tok was coming off a 52week high. Youre 36 a share. Not far from that now for all the right reasons. They still have growth. Look at ciscos yield. I think you have to lighten up on the travel and leisure stocks. I think zika is going to be a bigger story. We saw the ebola blip. Exxon back down near 84 bucks. Got a major pullback in a name that okay, exxon should not be reacting to top line oil prices. Theres some people that think maybe theyll p able to massage earnings and there may be something out there. But again, youve got a major pullback in big cap oil. Major dividends. Would you buy with that . Sounds like youre saying buy it. Exxon. 2. 2 billion negative and Free Cash Flow<\/a> to support their dividend. All these companies talked about using Free Cash Flow<\/a> the to support their dividends. I dont know what its like to talk about this. Not all stock is good as gold. Agree. A lot of these stocks are trading like theyre fearing a global recession. Obviously, thats all been out there. This is not breaking ground. Markets made new highs, but i think this space is trading a little odd to me. Speaking of oil here, the dip below 40 might have been surprising, but now to our next guest who said two weeks ago on fast money. Take a listen. But this point, 08, 09, we continued higher. I think were going lower and crude back to 40. So wheres crude going now and what stocks could soon follow in carter is back at the smart board. Do tell us which one. I think crude probably lower still, but todays, something that looks similar to crude before crude came apart, so wanted to take a look at the metals and mining come plek. Theres an etf that captures this group well. Xme. Ive got here for you a oneyear chart and the lines really speak for themselves. You have a tight relationship between metals and mining and weve had this 20 pullback in crude even as the stocks have continued. Take a look at the oneyear picture, the twoyear picture. The divergence at this point to my eye signals that the plu line is on borrowed time. This is two years against crude. Heres two years against the s p 4040 energy sector. The entire sector and the median stock in the medals an mining is about 2. 7. Exactly the same as the s p foreign energy. So again, playing for some convergence of these two lines. The blue line is going to go the way of the orange to some extent. So, a couple of other charts, this is the actual etf in relation to its price. Its farther above trend than the last six years. Just to put this in context, it goes back to the higher bull market high in 07. This ricochet now steeper than the one coming off of the 09 final crisis low. Thats incredible. And at this point, this is about where you get pullbacks. We havent had that yet. Another thing to look at is in terms of retracement. This low is 12. This 78. A 66 move. 25 takes you to where we closed today at 28. 50. A quarter of the move and you can draw your lines like that. You could draw them like that, but either way, your difficult level, its a crowded space, looks a lot like Certain Energy<\/a> stocks did before the whole thing came apart. What is the risk to the downside and what level do we need to hold in order to avoid that . You can get things in the order of 15, 20, 25 . Similar the what we saw in crude. Crude piqueded at 51 many change and prints as low as 49 in change today. Within that etf, is there a differentiation between the types miners . Some of the steel, gold as well. Three quarters in here. Not in this they are in that. Certain parts. All right, carter. Thank you. Who agrees . Who says you should stick with medals . I think stick. When ever china starts talking about its fiscal i dont agree. I think this a lot of this basing for me. When ever china utters the words fiscal deficit or increasing that, steel rallied 180 off the february g20 meeting. Ran another 50 , so i think its basing here. Do i think you should jump in . Below 50. Last night, what happened. Gold, steel, everything china up overnight and in the face of that. You look at that and say, why, its because of stimulus. So, you disagree with carter as well. I think steels going to roll over. Pmi was sideways. It was down from 50 to 49. 9. Absolutely years. But steel was up from february 184 . As soon as they increased their deficit. Anyone would be dead on to pull up a chart in u. S. Steel and say this is overextended. But u. S. Steel, this is what i want to say is different medals and miners, the Balance Sheets<\/a> are significantly better. Theyve been able to lengthen maturities. They have a total free ride to 2021. Thats where people have been wrong about the commodities based on these minors. Steels great, but im sure a lot of people want to know about gold miners in the winning trade. Is now the time to put that into the rotation category and start lightening up . I have been in for a very long period of time and slowly rotate, but mine is a little different. Its to continue to be in, but take money off, so im rolling up and i cant continue to look for more. Slv has been very nice. Gdx pushing, so i still think there is room to your xwe. I think it runs, but im hedging myself by taking some off and rolling up look for more. I think theres a difference, by the way whoa. Whoa. And guy is not here. What he would be saying is if carter is at the apex of his game right now, so we know that and everything he said is very important. I actually think that the medals miners correlation to oil is something that doesnt have the same argument. Were they really subject to the same . I think there are names that are way overextended. When you see a comparative chart like that, the thought is that the correlations because the businesses are correlated or the supply and demand. Whats correlated is nothing to do with that. It is the way people behave. People find things that are on their knees and they run for them because they can make money. I get a double, a triple. The behavior here is whats so correlated and thats important. The behavior and positioning. So, very important to recognize the steel, i mean, obviously, hit a massive run at 250. Mattel, mt is up 54 . This is a name that wasnt as highly shortive. If youre looking to buy the steel names op a pullback. Gold name, i think they pull back as well and id be looking at Something Like<\/a> that, but mt relative value is a buy. Up next, the man, the myth, the legend. Were talking jamie dimon, telling cnbc today the banks are a buy for the longterm. Maybe not surprising. Our traders aint buying that. Well explain. Plus, biotech stocks surging into sixmonth highs. Analysts will tell us what the street is missing about this group and concerned about august swoon, weve got the three stocks history says will do well in august and one is a scratcher. When fs munz runs. New bikes arent selling guys. What are we gonna do . How about we pump more into promotions . Nah. What else . What if we hire more sales reps . Nah. What else . What if we digitize the whole supply chain . So people can customize their bike before they buy it. That worked better than expected. Ill dial it back. Yeah, dial it back. Just a little. Live business, powered by sap. When you run live, you run simple. Tons of capital, liquidity. Healthy Financial Market<\/a> makes the country grow. You know, theres regulatory pressure, banks and banks document lifts over time. And our client rs happy. Thats what i worry about. Build the company today and the stock price will take care of itself tomorrow. That was jamie dimon talking to wilfred frost on power lunch today. Saying the big banks are buy for the longterm. He bought in february, pretty much at the low for jpmorgan. I think the banks are interesting. Theyre plagued by the entire set up with regard to the election, which is obviously on him, but i believe the banks are a trading vehicle right now. I wouldnt step in and put my eggs in one basket. I like bank of america. I think thats a stock you want to trade. Well i think heres the difference between yield. I think long growth will steadily been picking up. I think we continue to see massive long growth and thats the key here if we dont have a rise in rates. We need to see a steady pick up of loan growth. I think that could occur. Housing purchases. Theyre going out, first time home buyer, going out into the marketplace. Thai going to shift out of the cities wrrk ever the jobs. Weve seen homebuilder, i think tims here. Up 20 year to date. Management shake up there. But if you look at those things, those have reaped the benefits, but the banks still havent. Its a great time to own the homebuilders. Not so sure. What about credit cards . I understand that you buy a house, you go to home depot, buy product. My longterm feez in the bank, yes, theyre well capitalized, yes, in a much different financial situation. Obviously, the political arenas, the biggest concern now for the banks, do you think rate rs going to rise at some point in the future . I do. So, are you saying, youre saying its a trading vehicle . If youre saying the strengths, the strength of a bank are credit and in home buying and mortgages, then why not just go out and buy the home depot . Buy the credit card. Processing companies. Instead of banks. If were going to pile on. Is whats your view on oil . You think its going lower, right . If it is all these credit issues. The difference is this. Its again about sentiment and ment mentality. People believe weve seen the bottom in oil. We dont know what it was before. People believe the bottom is where rnd in the 30s, low 30s. Theyre comfortable with that. Very different i will say that again, i think this whole thing with the yield curve and its flatness is so overdone when people talk about banks. Banks have made a ton of dough. Weve been much, much lower that that, but banks have had an enormous operational leverage to the main economy. I think jpmorgan is the place to be. Pete. If we got anything out of the earnings cycle which started with jpmorgan, long growth. Whats there. And so because of that, even though were talking about this yield curve and everything else, jamie dimon said its not great. He was buying. 54 bucks a share. Now trading 63. For a sector thats under weight. Extremely under weight in portfolios, but a long shot, right in a sector people are just like biotech, waiting for that chance to step in on valuation alone mainly because theyre fearful of the known. The unknown is whats going to happen with the election and potentially, whats going to happen with rates. Its an unknown variable. Otherwise relatively healthy. Thats usually a mistake. Theres a difference between biotech and banks. You can value a companys pipeline, where as for banks, much more difficult the value what the trading environment will be with the loan growth environment, the m a environment. Pipeline for banks. It all comes down to sentiment and positioning and right now, the positioning is extremely light. People very underweight and im telling you once things turn and theyre going to turn quickly. Youre going to walk in, be like, what the heck, how did it miss that move . To me, its all about the credit cycle and auto numbers tomorrow, very important. If we have a problem, its probably on the auto side. All right, still ahead, tesla agreeing to buy solarcity, but is it a good idea for tesla hair holders . Youre watching fast money on cnbc. Heres what else is coming up on fast. This is your portfolio. This is the stock market in august. And this is your portfolio in august. Any questions . Yes, where should i put my money . Well, we happen to have the three stocks that surge when the america ki goes up. Plus, heres what russian stocks are doing to the s p and were well tell you the other surprising markets kicking the you know what out of the usa when fast money returns. What powers the digital world. Communication. Thats why a cutting Edge University<\/a> counts on centurylink to keep their global campus connected. And why a Pro Football Team<\/a> chose us to deliver fiberenabled broadband to more than 65,000 fans. And why a leading car brand counts on us to keep their Dealer Network<\/a> streamlined and nimble. Businesses count on communication, and communication counts on centurylink. Your but, during the day, fine when yothey can move em on. In the morning. Noon. Evening. Enough is enough its time to use fixodent plus adhesives. With just one application. They give you superior hold, even at the end of the day. So you can keep enjoying your evenings. Fixodent. Strong more like natural teeth. Fixodent and forget it. Its not easy. I was oncei carve working on a bust of Shaquille Oneill<\/a> in swiss. I havent worked in swiss since. Everyone called me crazy. Things really took off when i got my domain name headsofcheese. Com from godaddy and now theyre selling like hot cakes. Made of cheese. Got a crazy idea you think you can turn into a success . We know you can and weve got a domain for you. Go you. Godaddy. The s p 500 may be at an all time high or close to it, but some surprising countries have been crushing u. S. Equities this year. Seema mody has more. Politics, signs of economic reform and yields are driving investors over stocks overseas, starting with latin america, where brazil and argentina are up 30 on hopes that change of leadership in both countries will warrant change over time. And a rebound in economic growth. In russia, stocks there are up 22 . Oil has come off its lows and inflation in russia has fall ton a rate of 6 down from 15 in 2015. The big stand in asia is indonesia, which has been captivating investor attention ever since pro Business Leader<\/a> became president. He has been trying to battle corruption therefore alleviating investor fears. Now, all of these factors fuelling the market e the tf, the eem, which is up about 12 versus the s p 500, higher from 206. That continues to trouble investors, whether the rally can kopt even if the medicine does raise rates in september. Specifically, for those countries that are sitting on a lot of dollar denominated dead, so that will be a big test. The fed does raise rates in september, can the emerging market rally sustain. All right, thank you. In the news room with that. So, tim, we got to go to you. Which one . Places where Central Banks<\/a> are going to be cutting. Yeah in brazil has the highest rate, the rial has gone from 330 down to 230 and youve had a major, mange trade, you take a major trade thats taken place there. I think in russias case, watch the ruble, watch 67 break and stay away. Otherwise, i think russia will continue, they are cutting rates there. I love korea and again, if you look at the south korean wan, this has bun within of the best performing currencies. I think samsung continues to go higher. Those are markets, but em on the 36. 25, thats a key level. I think its praeking higher. I think its a ve verse head and shoulders. Are there stocks in the some of the stock, tim and i have been nor a long time, but im out of that. Its made an incredible run. Huge run to the upside, across the board in just about every one of these. Ive seen huge paper op the downside in the puts. I have to ride on to that because it seems to me like a pullback. To what . Just pulling back. Maybe 10 . But you know, basically, you get up there. Given people underneath. Certainly. That is the sentiment right now in em and the fund flows are favoring it for the first time. This has been a fiveyear bear market. Zpl whey is it in is it mainly because developing markets have valuations that are getting so stressed, its just forcing people . Stabilizing eps. 2 billion i think is the number. In the last two weeks has gone into emerging markets. Its not sustainable. The brazilian one is literally a dash for trash. I know where tim is on that, but i look at it as mostly trash. Last word. Again, brazil, the indices are mostly the banks. Consumer plays are still alive and well in these place, but expecting too much too fast is what pete is saying. Theyve got a lot of politics ahead of them. I think the best days are le hind. There are three standout stocks that tend to beat the street in august. And later, big pha ma on deck. From pfizer toaler began, which of these names could see the biggest moves on earnings . Well tell you when fast money returns. About what happens when you turn sixtyfive. But, really, its what you do before that counts. See, medicare doesnt cover everything. 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Really fast. Introducing the comcast business Summer Savings<\/a> event. Fast Internet Speed<\/a> to drive performance, plus cutting edge wifi for your employees and customers, and voice mobility so your calls find you wherever you are. Get some of our most advanced products at a great price with over 500 in savings. Call today and ask how to get these savings plus a 250 prepaid card. Comcast business. Built for business. Welcome back. The dow lower today locking in its first sixday losing streak in nearly a year. Oil fell almost 4 . The s p ending the day lower, but the north america tack managed to stay positive. Heres whats coming up. Some of the biggest names on the street are sounding the alarm for stocks in august, but theres one may not have heard of. Plus, another big week for earnings. Well tell you the Health Care Stocks<\/a> that could see planlg moves. Shifting gears to tesla, the company has agreed to an all stock deal to buy solarcity for 2. 6 billion, but will it hit the speed bump with with shareholders . Phil . Theyre not expecting a speedback, at least wen you lust b to the confidence you heard from the investors this morning and oh, boy bithe way, almost every analyst said the same thing. Not sure i agree with the financials on this deal. I like the longterm strategy or i get it. 25. 37 per share. Basically what its going to work out to when the deal is all said and done. At least according to tesla. Theres a 45day go shopping option, so they can look for another bid. Get somebody who can pay them more. They expect the deal to close in the fourth quarter. The largest shareholder for both tesla and solarcity is elon musk. But he wont be voting in terms of with teslas hashareholders. Hes recused himself, so its up to the disinterested shareholders, if they approve. That vote is going to be an interesting one and the question came up today about whether or not elon musk, given the ties between these two companies, hes the chairman of solarcity, given the ties between these companies, will or not its a conflict of interest. Heres what he said. Reporting around this merger is that the reporting that oh, all sorts of con b flikts of interest, no theyre if we dont merge. The point of the merger is to get rid of the conflict of interest. His strategy and hes been laying this out since late june, is is that youre creating basically a one stop shop when it comes to green, clean energy. The gigafactory is at the heart of that. We went on a tour of it last week. Thaifr already starting to build and ship power wall, Energy Storage<\/a> units sold to residences around the united states. Power packs, which go to the utilities. Those are going to start to be shipped in the near future and we believe they are on track to bring down the battery costs as they have projected. Having said that, you look at the shares of tesla and solarcity, basically in tandem for the last five or six months. Before that, not really, but now in the last five or sixth month, they have traded in and m. Guys we dont know the date of the vote from tesla and solarcity, but they expect it to close in fourth quarter. Phil, for all the skepticism surrounding the deal, the fact of the matter that tesla stock is high r from the day before the deal was announced. The earningings are going to come out this week and i think that will be sort of a key test because if there are any execution problems then the questions about this deal will resurface. If they continue to execute and fulfill their bullish forecast, maybe not so bad. And i think the interesting thing is in terms of whether or not they hit 80,000 vehicles dlifedded this year. Now, we know what theyve delivered in the fist half, but whether or not they change guidance, whether or not they give a fairly optimist accounting in terms of how theyre ramping up production of the model s and x and getting ready for model three, which the first ones will be delivered late next year. Thats what people are going to be keying in on tomorrow afternoon. Thank you. Also on the call, musk said that they will likely have to do a small Equity Capital<\/a> raise next year and stocks will sort of took it in trid. There are a lot of thing that is the shareholders right at this moment in time granted right after the deal was announced, huge hit to tesla market cap, but for now, taking in stride, waiting for the earnings. It really is spectacular to watch how this stock has traded. The autopilot investigation, all of the rest of that and its held the 200 day moving average. We talk about this, its been very high. Back to the historical levels, so theres a lot of interesting factors about how this stock is trading now. Sitting here, call ilt 230 a share. I dont think any of us would have expected that given the backdrop of what weve had. 28 Short Interest<\/a> in the name, so you have that underpinning the stock. Expennive name. Elon musk keeps you on your heels. How does this help production. It doesnt. Nothing. It may not hurt though. It may not hurt though. Distraction right now. Good new, folk, its an energy company. The same company weve known all along. Its still a, if you thought it was an auto company before, it still is with an energy unit. Solarcity is a spaul piece of teslas total mark. Just to pushback. And thats fair. But hes expressed this vision of the future. Which is that this is basically insulations, energy, storage, cars. Its okay, its one stop shopping for efficiencefficienc. I think theres synergy, but tell me it should be trading at the multiple. If he wants to be an energy company. Why is he throwing out those huge production numbers . Get everyones eyes off the ball. Hes throwing out heez huge massive production numbers that he would never attain. And at the end of the day, its a car company. Its people buy into it all they want. Alternative energy play. Selling your view. Sell. Still ahead, are we in for a major end of summer correction . Why the bears are coming out of the woods and the toks that can be your best bet. Plus, biotech is up nearly 12 in the past month, but can the gains last . A top analyst explains why he thinks theres more room to run. Much more fast money ahead. The bears are out in full force for august. Jeffrey saying to sell everything, explaining investors are too complacent. Plus, Goldman Sachs<\/a> echoes those sentiments. And jpmorgan adding today to sell any rallies. And even funds, tom lee, is scared of the end of summer calling for its downturn in toks in august and this as we head into one of the worst months for stocks and also one of the most volatile. But there are some stocks that typically survive amid the august swoon. Paul is with us to tell us which ones. Everybody wants to know this, paul. Gl i think to the point is if we get a rally if august, its going to be earnings related because were going to be reporting earnings and so far, were seeing good numbers in the eps revenues and guidance has been strong with even between upgrades and downgrades, which is not common. You typically see more down lower guidance and we havent seen companies menging brexit in their quarterly calls. Less than half of companies have mentioned it and in most case, theyve been saying it hasnt been affecting us. Lets look at companies that typically do well in auction and typically react well to august reports. The first name is nvidia, the Top Performing<\/a> stock in the s p 500 in october. The its averaged 11 return. 90 of the time, its been up. The only other stock thats been add human, it was unchanged in 2007. Nvidia after its august earnings reports, eight out of the last ten time, which is in historically, the best quarter for the company. So thats the first one. Second, sales force. Again, valuation is typically an issue when you mention sales force. But last weeks buy of oracle by net sweep makes the valuation more justifiable. Net sweet was bought at 11 times sells. Its down well during august and it reports later this month. Revisions by analysts are currently skewed negative to the company, so thats negative sentiment and its reacting positively to earnings, 75 of the time. In its august quarter, so again, theres you sort of have almost a put on the stock because theres been these buyout rumors, the stock last year that went up, never went down and if jpmorgan last april said takeout could be north of 100. Finally, the third, catch my breath. Outside of technology, thats vulcan. Vulcan material, one issue, it comes up when you talk about infrastructure. Its the one bipartisan issue in politics right now. The stock was down 6 today after it missed earnings. But they did reiterate their guidance and they did blame the weather, which is an easy scapegoat, but when talking about an infrastructure company, outdoor weather related issues can delay prokts and vulcan has been up 80 of the time in august. Last ten years. Average return slightly less than 4 , but again, it has a seasonals at its back and its trading right above 115. Paul, thank you. Which ones would you buy . Do you like any of them . Id by sierra. Nvidia, id buy. I think thats a great company. Id stay away from humana and vulcan, id toss the coin in the air and guess. I think materials are very interesting. Starting to see recovery and prices and asphalt. If you look at the fiber of their business and what weve talkeded about in terms of housing formation and what needs to happen in the housing sector, the its happening much slower, but thats bb a consistent longterm trade and therefore, i think it will continue. What kind of play rather in so long. At least two weeks. Played it poorly when you were gone. I feel like we cheated. I cant believe you guys playeded without me. Would you rather, pete, intel or nvidia. Nvidia right now. Just because i think they are positioned nicely in the gaming world and because of that and i see it everywhere i go, i would go with that. You . You want me to play the way i usually play . United rentals. I would play nvidia, too. The internet of things. This is where you want to be. Theyre in the connected house n the card. Moves the needle a lot more than intel. Still ahead, five seconds rally. Even bigger gains ahead. Three stocks that will take the sector higher. Right after the break. Plus, a big week for earnings ahead and Health Care Stocks<\/a> are shaping up to be the biggest movers. What the to expect for pfizer and amgen. Youre watching cnbc, first in business worldwide. [announcer] is it a force of nature . Or a sales event . The summer of audi sales event is here. Get up to a 5,000 bonus on select audi models. Were drowning in information. Where, in all of this, is the stuff that matters . The stakes are so high, your finances, your future. How do you solve this . You dont. You partner with a firm that advises governments and the fortune 500, and, can deliver insight person to person, on what matters to you. Morgan stanley. Take a look at the nasdaq, surging nearly 2 and hitting a fresh high in todays session. Which names will help drive this rally higher . Michael, great to have you. Whats changed over the past six months . Has sentiment changed or manager really fundamentally changed . I think its both, melissa. Great to be here. If you look at the fist half of the year, the biotech stocks were hit so hard on drug pricing concerning and tweets and these stocks have been big underperformers. When you look at the second out of the year, people are climbing the wall of worry on drug pricing. People have di jekted the political rhetoric. Today, president obaositive ear week out of celgene and amgen and people are tarting to realize it was too much doomsday. Good fundamentals, earnings and Clinical Data<\/a> and a recovery. These stocks are still down year to date. They can get back up to even by the end of the year. Youre highlighting though a few stocks here. Celgene, vertex, as well as kite. Do you think that these stocks will outperform the group . Do you think basically, the entire group will lift or will it be be a stock specific sort of action that well see . I think that in general, this backdrop of biotech will continue to improve u. Because of the things we talked about. I think within the sector, celgene, vertex and kite have important Clinical Data<\/a> over the next couple of months that can send the stocks to be outperformers within that. So look for the data. Whats going on with the sort of the well loved big cap biotech stocks, gilead. Are they still expegt iing to da deal with their cash . Yeah. Gilead sortover stands out as sort of a one off. You see that stock is underperformed poil whooil the rest of the Group Continues<\/a> to move higher. I think most of wall street used the hep c, the cure markets as a one off and i think people are waiting on them to do a deal to get that stock back up. So the good news is although theyve had some issues on their numbers, the rest of the stocks have outperformed. So, waiting on a deal with gilead. Okay, after the elections, michael, will things become much better or will things become worse in your view . In that well get a candidate, maybe theyll get around to talking about what they will do. Yeah. Look, i think that we can move higher. I think theres a consolidation period and a pause as whether hillary or trump wins. I think the reality as we get into 2017, were going the find like we did many the past, that a lot of the things they talked about is more talk. Particularly if the republicans maintain control of congress, so thats the case, i think the street will continue to look past that realize not a lot can get done and were going to move higher in 2017. Mike, thanks a lot. Appreciate it. Joining us from san francisco. So, in terms of these names, do you think that this rally weve seen, the six month rally in ibb, is that here to stay . Yes. I think it could be. Especially what michaels talking about in terms of the political side of it. Sounds like hes more bullish coming out of the political side of it than a lot of us started to feel. Maybe back in november last year when hillary had a tweet. I think the interesting thing about celgene, we like the pipene, where they are. We like the fact its a 16 pe and this is a biotech with incredible growth. Hes got a 125 or 35 a target. Its one of those name, i think this name can outperform. I agree. Dwaif you credit for that last week. Celgene is the pest pipelibest pipeline in biotech. Bi ork gen, this could be a 320 tok by the end of the week because of the positive news flow weve seen in the name. Something gets lifted up in one of those, where a little cover, stocks move. Lets stick with big pha a ma and biotech. Another week of earnings, mike khouw has the latest. Hey, how are you . So, yes, we have three names that are reporting this week. Collectively, were see iing th Options Market<\/a> a pli about a 10 billion swing in valuations. First, pfizer. Markets implying about a 2 move. That translates just you should 4. 6 billion move. That stock and we have allergan. About a 3. 7 move. Thats about a 3. 7 billion swing there and then finally, i bimarine. About a billion in market cap. All thee have been seeing bullish flow. In pfizer, only 2 and then average move significantly larger, the september calls are getting a good value on a cheap stock to make a bullish bet. The other two because the moves are typically larger, you see people selling calls, mildly bullish bets. In big pharma. Pfizer. Been there forever. Slow and steady as she goes. I like pfizer. I think again, you look at the big pharma space. Valuations are there. We had them on last week. I think its interesting. Having said all that, i think these are still wildly volatile stocks. Not playing ahead of earnings. Check out the full show fridays 5 30 p. M. Earn time. Up next, final trade. Ta tuned. Im here at the Td Ameritrade<\/a> trader offices. Steve, other than making me move stuff, what are you working on . Let me show you. Okay. Our thinkorswim Trading Platform<\/a> aggregates all the options data you need in one place and lets you visualize that information for any options series. Okay, cool. Hang on a second. You can even see the anticipated range of a stock expecting earnings. Impressive. Whats up, tim. Td ameritrade. In a world held back by compromise, businesses need the agility to do one thing another. Only at t has the network, people, and partners to help companies be. Local global. Open secure. Because no one knows like at t. Im Hampton Pearson<\/a> in our washington bureau. We want to take you to a rally in omaha, nebraska, where Warren Buffett<\/a> a long time Hillary Clinton<\/a> sportder going back to 2008. Even before. Is expected to perhaps endorse Hillary Clinton<\/a>. The democratic nominee. For president. So far, in his introtuktry raushs, havent seent hk yet. Mr. Buffett has called on mr. Trump to release his tax returns. An issue that he and other leading democrats have raised time and time again with mr. Trump. As far as disclosure and pointing out the fact that most recent president ial candidates in the modern era have in fact released their tax returns. As you can see, now, mr. Buffett talking to that omaha, nebraska crowd in anticipation of seeing Hillary Clinton<\/a> and her irremar, but calling on trump to release his tax returns while we await Hillary Clinton<\/a> in omaha, nebraska. Thank for that. You can see hillary behind donald trump. Excuse me, behind Warren Buffett<\/a>. Time now for the final trade. Around the horn here. Looking back on this pharma section, look iing at bristol myers. I think the stocks going higher m going to break through the 52week highs. Jc penney up. I locked in some profits. I think longer term, the is in tact. The overall market doesnt. Talked about biotech. Biogen. Im a buy r of the stock. Higher. No. A pleasure to have you back on the desk. Wonderful to be back. We had great help. Great to have you back. If youre playing in emerging markets, a fine place to go to currencies arent cheap and export. Ewi korea is the call. Im melissa lee. Thanks again for watching. See my mission is simple, to make you money. Im here to level the Playing Field<\/a> for all investors. Theres always a bull market somewhere, and i promise to help you find it. Mad money starts now hey, im cramer. Welcome to mad money. Welcome to cramerica. Other people want to make friends, i just want to help you make some money. Call me at 1800743cnbc or tweet me jimcramer. How do you look at things . Whats your time horizon . 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