And the nasdaq recouping nearly all losses from nationwide and it started with these comments from fed governor brainard. I was only kidding the apparent reversal on a lot of investors saying, what the fed so what do you do with your portfolio right now . Guy . We talked about on friday what was the movie, guy . Scarface. Not everybody is that you know. Which one was she . In the tub or anyway my bad. I dont know who youre talking about. One of the things we said on friday, the market traded down, effectively held the levels we last saw in may 2015. Lets not make too much out of this. The fed threw out a test balloon in terms of hawkish commentary and actually said that could change on a dime next week if they reverse course. I didnt think it was going to happen monday morning. But it happened monday morning. So i think were a little inaccurate in what we talked about. The market was actually rallying back before the comments were out. Im splitting hairs here. But that said, you know, we have held that 2134, 35 level from last may. Obviously, the 2119 low today, not with standing. And i think the market is right back. I dont think anything has effectively changed. I think that hawkish tone last week takes over for the dovish tone now and the market its a good point the markets are already pairing losses before the brainerd. We hit sessions highs after the brainerd comments. Does it make you feel better that market mentality was by the dips coming in on monday . Yeah. I think that to guys point, they sent out released the hawks. Now getting back to the dovish even though in my mind, they lean hawkish. The voting fed members lean hawkish. Rosen green was not a hawk and changed the entire dialogue on friday. Right. So you have guys that were doves leaning hawkish or quasi hawkish and then hawks who will always be hawks. For us, its about the market. Market is up 5. 5 yeartodate. This to me is the biggest biggest tight rope receipt now. You have Pension Funds that probably need to have people make a little bit more money. You have retirees that need the rates to increase. But you cant have both at the same time. You cant get hurt in both. So as long as the market is up here, the threading of the needle. They continue to thread the needle. All in september the rate hike is off. Safe to be in the market. Safe to be in the market. How do you feel . Does it feel safe to be in the market . Well, i mean, i bought a little bit of stuff yesterday. Friday, talked about it if it came in down, i would take off some protections. I did a little. I mean, it happened to be lucky in terms of timing, because then brainerd sent it off to the races. I bought a little facebook. I had i wanted to buy some uri, wasnt able to do that, didnt get to my price. I dont think a whole lot is different today. I agree with steve that there is a more hawkish bent. I dont really care if it happens in september or december. But i really do think it will happen in one of those two. And so, you know, im still long banks. If it doesnt happen, theyre going to go down in the short term. But thats okay. First of all, either embrace this correction or be fearful of whats going on. But i would say dont do nothing. And what i mean by that is, i think what we have said at least what i think ive said, markets are going to go sideways much of this year with extreme bouts of volatility. Its very difficult for me to look at fundamentals and say that things should go a lot higher from here. If anything, the message we got over the last 48 hours or two trading sessions, it wont take much. And by the way, youre going to be surprised but with a catalyst. So as much as, you know, hillarys health is something that obviously, you know, is a big political story and can be made bigger deal, you add that to what was going on, and you had a number of questions for the market, like, hey, hold on a second. A rally we have already priced into stocks based upon what we think is an outcome in november or october, november is something that i actually think you have something to be worried about. So what im telling you is, i think nothing really changed. But what we know is, look at the bank of japan. Look at the ecb. Those are Central Banks that are running out of any creativity or they can be as creative as they want. Efficacy of Central Bank Policy not working at some point. Theres no bad thing about lightning up where the market is right now. So i agree with everything tim said. But the problem is, trying to pick that bottom or trying to pick that selloff, when the duration of that selloff continues to collapse. Youve had three months. Then youve had 30 days. Now you basically have six to seven days of a selloff. I cant do that. I dont think anyone can. Stay long. Youre saying this is only a six or sevenday selloff. If you think there is a real dynamic that has changed and were at the end and were going into Slower Growth and were not the best block on you know, around right now, then you get light and you stay light. But if you think this is going to be one of those catalysts where you said because no one knows the catalyst. Its going to be a oneoff, which we dont know, you cant tie in the market like that. Whats the bottom line . Stay long. Stay long with positions you feel are comfortable, stay long with your group, your core of names that youre still comfortable with. One thing interesting today, jamie dimon, obviously he has a vested interest for rates to be higher. So ill put that out there. But he actually made a comment that we have said a couple times before, that in order for the fed to reclaim any credibility they had, they really should make a move on Interest Rates. Which i thought was interesting. Somewhat selfserving, but the first time you heard him make comments like that. Which i happen to agree with. I guess the point is this. The machines have really taken over so whatever headline comes out, a bullish headline, machines take the market higher and exact opposite on friday. Im not certain there are people doing anything of but i think the mentality, even for a lot of people after what happened friday wasp my goodness, i wanted to take some profits, and lets put it this way. There are some positions i had in emerging markets that i really felt like had come a long way, even though i am still very constructive. Nothing is really changed. But you have these so you lined up on friday . Lightened up on friday. But i think there are a lot of people who say get me back to those levels and i would happily get out again and i think thats not just a professionals attitude, definitely a retail attitude. And i think if you think about the things we got that triggered this rally, these are all things that are waiting for us. If you think about a rally into elections, weve had that rally. So well have the trump conversation later on in the show. But i dont think that the mentality for the market today is where it was on friday. Not after a spike involved. The market is going higher. Just the dynamic thats going to happen. The same dynamic thats happened now. We drifted off, then moved sideways. If they do not raise rates, the market is going higher. Im not screaming panic here. And i definitely havent done that all year. What im telling you, though, Central Banks are running out of their ability to influence markets. Bank of japan, Interest Rates in japan, by the way, getting back to zero. And i think thats a very positive thing. Is the fed more likely to raise . If the rest of the world isnt easing. Should do. So youre saying yes. I think the fed will be cautious. Im telling you, were in a world where the valuations are tough to justify. So should you trust todays rally in stocks . Lets ask Carter Broxton worth, breaking it down. What do you say . So. On the weekend, i was looking we know the resolution. It broke to the down side. And so i was trying to go back and see if there is any precedent for this. And let me show what ive got. Its data mining, nothing more than that but worth knowing. So if you were to know, which we do 43 days without moving more than 1 . If you look at all 40day periods, 22,090 of them, back in 1928. If you find those where youve got less than 1 move, for more than 40 days, youre talking about 32 of 22,000. So a very low odds kind of thing. Youre talking about. 14 in incidence rate in history. So youve got the tight range. Lets just look at it. And then is it going to break out or break down . We know what happened on friday. Broke down. What were the odds that would happen . In fact, of those 32 times, 70 of the time it breaks to the down side. And a third to the up side. So, in fact, this setup, this very rare instance, and that odds, it played out the twothirds, onethird. And it did break and it was the down side. Not the up side. So now what . I want to look its one of the biggest resolutions of the 32. In fact, it is the biggest. So these are the of the 32 times, where youve got a tight range like that, and then its broken up or down, these are the five worst. So were looking at the worst of alltime. In terms. Plunge. Which might be why we had such a big record. But if you look at these five and say what happens going forth as an average, when it it was a break to the down side after a tight range like that, these are the stats. So the average of the worst five, one month later, six months later, three months, twelve months. Now, five, six data points, you say thats irrelevant. But the principle is a debate, a resolution, up or down. This was down. And this ricochet. Im feeling a rally if you can even call it that. Fade this. Im not even going to ask you guys. Im going invite carter over. Why dont you come on over . Okay. First time ever. Unilaterally saying come on over. Tucker is bringing the chair. Here we go. So im sure all you guys have so many questions. So todays bounce. Does that lessen your view of the damage on friday at all . Its interesting. Of all of the instances, 1959 had the secondbiggest on that list in terms of the resolution. That also had the biggest ricochet. If that analog were to play out, the closest to this one, those stats are very much in effect. Heres the thing. You refer to something as a technical thing. People interested in getting their money back. Once you take losses like that, their body is trapped above. Thats the whole point. Very hard to press through the range, at least any time soon. So let me ask you something. If i followed the data, you had 32 instances that tight a range. Where you havent moved more than 1 . 32. And youre a chartist and slash statstician. Does that make you confident about outcomes . Thats right. You could say thats limited. What it what robust, infrequency. Rolling periods. That statistic alone is very robust. Meaning the standoff and the fact that of those standoffs, almost always get resolved violently. Meaning all debates come to an end. Its like a judge putting down the gavel. Winner or loser, right . The gavel came down, the bears won. And the average and now youve recovered to where i think probably youre going to run into the sellers from above who were hurt by fridays action. So my question, though, how violent . Because i mentioned earlier, how many embracing this pullback, because its something to have been done in the last nine or twelve months. And in fact, the stats here showing with the pullbacks dont seem so severe and for a market where people are so concerned about, really, these big systemic events that are just not happening. Is this a time for people to sharpen their pencil . They are happening in the sense that structurally, as of fridays close, the s p 500 index was unchanged for 20 minut months. So a maximum drawdown. Equities not paying for the risk. Every time you think its okay, you personally, you generically, it pulls a brexit. Youre not getting paid, compensated for the risk youre embracing. I think if you are buying the s p, that maybe thats true, youre surfing the wave. But for active managers, the opportunities i dont think so. Again look at the numbers. Look at the sectors that have rallied 60 to 90 off the lows. Im not saying you can time that bottom that easily and im not sure that people are necessarily falling out of a tree and selling at the bottom. But it seems to me the volatility weve had and saying that equities dont offer the right kind of risk reward, when bonds are at a 4 or 5 sigma event. And gold is not an asset allocation. I know gold has outperformed and you said this on the last show. I think if you think about the world were living in, bonds are not the right call. If bonds are bad, and they probably are, and stocks are a bad bet or are questionable bet, and cap rates in manhattan or london are 3 , thats just it. Where do you go . That might be the biggest problem of all. All right. Nice little discussion. Yeah, sure. What we do. Where do you stand . I understand what karens point is. My pushback would be obviously we cant get into that much. The world changed a lot. With the add vent of listen, machines dominate everything. I dont even think people are making decisions as much any more. Fridays action was to me all driven by computer models and todays action pretty much the same. So i hear what he is saying. Of but you have to tell me, to get back to his point, whats the headline thats going to derail this market . And ive seen everyone along the way and not one of them has its already derailed. There is no results for two years. Of i mean, look at the numbers. You can look at the russell 3,000 or you can look at the performance of active managers. Because any prudent manager, once it dumps like that in january, which we all know is sinister, has to take measures. They have to increase cash or go more defensive. And as soon as people did it, what does it do . It rallies back and leaves you trapped. All right. Weve got to leave it there. Carter, thank you. Next, the one chart that could be keeping elon musk up at night and signalling trouble ahead for tesla holders. And roger mcnamee, why samsung might be experiencing its tylenol moment and that could be good news for apple. How good . Hell be here to explain. And biotechs soaring today and one name set to surge. Well tell what that is, when fast money returns. Man, im glad aflac pays cash. Aflac isnt Major Medical enough . No whos gonna help cover the holes in their plans . Aflac like rising copays and deductibles. Aflac or help pay the mortgage . Or child care . Aflaaac and everyday expenses . Aflac learn about one day pay at aflac. Com boat blurlbrlblrlbr welcome back to fast money. Check out shares of tesla and solarcity, both seeing big gains today. Remember the whole deal where solarcity accepted teslas 2. 6 billion offer . Check out this chart. This basically shows how skeptical traders have become that the deal will actually go through. Meaning they think perhaps the deal might not go through. Elon musk the largest shareholder of both tesla. If one were to set up the arbitra arbitrage,. 11 shares of tesla. There is a spread there and take it over to solarcity. This is a deal that absolutely should happen. It should be a layup. But what it shows here is, a tremendous amount of risk if this deal assistant doesnt go through, because where does that leave solarcity. So very often, you know, you would buy one and short the other. I think in this case, they could both end up going down if the deal doesnt happen. I think that its a huge spread, but i dont think its worth the risk. And reason solarcity was up today, and maybe likely tesla, they were able to do a financing. They did 305 million equity in debt kind of hybrid. Thats good. Any time they can monetize that and investors bought into it. Thats good for them. But, you know, shows they are in need of theyre in need of cash. Right. Its good to be able to tap the market. That is good for them. The spread, i wouldnt play it. And this deal, if it doesnt go through the cost of capital for solarcity goes up. It absolutely will go up. 100, 200, 300 basis points. I dont know what its going to be if the deal doesnt happen. If the deal doesnt happen, the cost absolutely. For solarcity. Absolutely. And meanwhile, if their mega watt installations you see any weakness here there are so many hisrisks in that stock. If the deal doesnt go through, the tesla aura, elon musk aura suddenly now has got a tarnish. I totally get that. But, i mean, if you think that the deal will go through, could this back be the greatest trade . Because its what, 18 bucks at the time of announcement it was price solarcity at 22 or whatever it was . Right. Tess huh la 22 spread right now. I think the only thing that i feel would feel comfortable and im not a huge tesla fan, the range we talked about. 190 up to 205 right now. And its holding up 190. Thats bullish. I wouldnt play solarcity. I think you have extreme risk to the down side. Maybe you do with tesla, as well, but holding 190 is bullish for me. I would play solarcity to the down side. If its only lets call it a 1 in 3 chance of the deal going through selling it. Way, way higher. 25 discount. Would you just i mean, weve got would i be long tesla . Seems to hold that 185 level. I still think the risk to the down side in solar city is big . Am general the past six months and traders betting the stock has got much further to run from here. Well take you behind the trade. Im melissa lee, youre watching fast money and cnbc, first in business worldwide. In the meantime, heres what else is coming up on fast. I think gold will go up as long as people dont have confidence in our president. Well, donald, what would happen to gold if you become president . Dennis gartman will be here. Plus mom dad its evil dont touch it yeah, thats what some investors are saying about shares of samsung in the wake of the galaxy note 7. But is it reason alone to buy apple . Tech legend roger weighs in. For actual rocket scientists. And the launch crew met for a moment of reflection. Before any of this, cdw orchestrated a collaboration solution using pcs with intel 6th gen core vpro processors. Collaboration by intel. Orchestration by cdw. Thats why a cutting edgeworld. University counts on centurylink to keep their global campus connected. And why a Pro Football Team chose us to deliver fiberenabled broadband to more than 65,000 fans. And why a leading car brand counts on us to keep their Dealer Network streamlined and nimble. Businesses count on communication, and communication counts on centurylink. Welcome back to fast money. We are 15 hours away from cnbcs delivering alpha conference, some of the biggest names in investing will gather in new york city. Known for generating market headlines. Cnbcs kate kelly with a recap of some of last years boldest calls and how they worked out. Its been such a diverging market and the delivering alpha calls were no different. In that vain, a few big ideas stood out to me in 2015. Bill miller, founder and cio of lmn investments, saying it was his biggest position at the time and it was his High Conviction position, as well. Representing about 6 of his funds capital. He praised amazons core business, praised their rapidly growing we