April 5th on reports opec reached a deal, sending Energy Stocks along with it. The ibt fwrated names in big games names. The Oil Services Stocks also seeing a nice day. Halliburton and schlumberger benefit benefited. Is this rally in oil going to continue and what is the best way to play it . I guess when we say is it going to it continue, contingent on that, do you believe they have reached a deal, because this is going to be implemented in november . I think what you can be sure of is that the sentiment between saudi and iran has improved. Iran is better off than they were. They may be in a position of strength. Saudi is given some ground. Informal talks. Nothing expected here. I think there is a lot of momentum into november and i think we knew that even before today. So i think things are better. Remember, november last year was the disaster essentially that put the final into the bottom of oil. So i actually think you can believe that things are better. And i think actually whether you get a deal or not in november, saudi at 65 bucks a barrel, not happy. The key here, remember, saudi arabia last may replaced their oil minister, the old Oil Ministers plan was lets get market share, lets flood the market. In may, after the disastrous plan said weve had now. Now saudi arabia is also trying to move away from oil. So theyre going to sell off sawedia ram co. They need higher stock prices so they are more amenable to a deal. So, yes, i think this is sustainable. Whether or not people cheat doesnt really matter. The way the oil market is set up right now, i dont think people realize how willing saudi arabia is and how much they need, at least a floor in oil prices, if not higher. We like to do math, right . We all karen went to warden. I mean, were good at math. So its a round of 700 million barrel per day. 700,000. Yeah. Per day. Good at math. Well, i didnt even start the math. Yeah. All right. So that happens in november. Right. This is only for opec countries. Russia, for one, is not an opec country. And their production expected to increase next year by 2. 7 according to ubs. Frackers could do whatever the heck they want, karen. Do you think this is going to have an impact on oil prices . Im skeptical they actually implement the deal. Even the deal. Yes. Okay. So, i mean, i saw oil up nicely today. Lets say i knew for sure it was going to happen. I dont know how much would oil have been up . Maybe more. Because but im skeptical. I feel like, you know, its a precarious agreement. And im skeptical they get there. Yeah, i mean, any time you talk about opec, i think there is skepticism. And i think only onethird of now Oil Production is from opec countries. But to answer your question, how long can it last . Well, guess what this week is . You have monthend, quarterend so can it last the rest of the week . Absolutely. Can that take wti to 49. 5, 50 . Absolutely. Can it take anadarko petroleum, a lot of other names you mentioned, can that take it up another 8 to 10 the rest of this week . Absolutely. And i think thats how you play it. The refiners are probably dead money for a little bit. Good Balance Sheet name, chevron, exxonmobil, still in play. We didnt see near the gains in refiners, clearly than other parts of the space. If you believe this, and youre going to place your bets on an oil equity, why not go the frackers, because theyre seeing the most up side gain because they have the most to gain here. Well, you want to find the most impaired Balance Sheets, because theyre the ones that have the most to gain and surviving in this environment. So i do think that the big integrated names are not where you want to go. I think oil services, look at the oih up 6 today. These are the places where you if you believe especially in opec, a lot of the offshore drilling is, and at least other places i think you could put a lot of companies to work. So if you want to trade this, that oil is going higher, find the small and mid cap names, dare i say, because theyre the ones with the most leverage. I like your apc. You did a great job on that and remember they did the secondary. That was when you thought it was a great time to buy. Theyre actually buying assets. Now that looks smart if theyre able to do that. But i think theres probably more to run in apc. I like his call. Oih we have all mentioned it. Its traded against 26 since last april. Now up 28, up to 28. 5 today. To me, thats the greatest risk reward in the oil spice out there right now. I wouldnt buy it up 6 . But you get a pull back in oih, thats what you buy because you know below 26 youre stopped out. A little cold water on this . Yeah, could be refreshing. Yeah. Not on a day like today. Its chilly outside. True. Anyway a hot summer day. Some you think its chilly out. For bk, its not. Come on. Look at the ovx today. You would think on a day like today, the ovx, which has been rallying off the 38 level, you would have thought maybe and correctly, obviously, that would have sold off with the rallying crude oil. The exact opposite happened. That had a big rally today. Highest levels we have seen in quite some time. So i think the ovx is saying this may last for a few more days but the rally could be short. What i want to know, what happened to a world everyone assumed oil was going lower and this was just a bad rally and ultimately really what this has to say, the market is much more in balance than people have been giving it credit for. Now, i should be hearing bears say hey, look, get to 60 on oil, u. S. Production is going to flood the market and you want to sell this thing. But to me, oil has been a very difficult trade. Its been a trade that actually has i think responded to Central Bank Activity that the fact is, its been driving Central Bank Activity. If oil is truly higher, by the way, i think you can look at an impact on Interest Rates, its going to affect the way the ecb acts. Remember, they were forced into action by the spiral of oil in january of 2015. So these are things to think about. For more on the story, lets bring in the woman who called todays rally in crude, the global head of commodity strategy joins us. Great to have you with us. Ive got your note from september 22 and your most likely scenario. Number one is that the group would finalize the plan on or before the upcoming opec meeting in november. This is the most likely scenario. Look how happy she is. She called it right. I dont think many people believed this at this time. In terms of the rally in crude, does this stick, though . I think what opec has done is bought themselves the floor for the next two months. So, yes, we can move a bit higher for the next couple days. But they have really firmed the floor in the mid 40s. And i think that is what is important for opec. The details need to be determined. I mean, its about a 900,000 barrel day cut, saudi taking most of it. The rest has to be apportioned. Everybody had written opec off as dead on arrival before this meeting. No one thought they could get this done. I think everyone has to now think about opec having a heartbeat again. Isnt this just not to assuming opec sticks with this, in november, and that the production the production figures are respected by each member of opec, isnt this just a yes, go ahead to russia, to the u. S. Frackers to produce more and more and more . Well, i think what opec is really aiming for, you dont hear them talking about 75 or 80 any more. Theyre aiming for the 50s to 60 range. And i think they think, yeah, that brings on some of the perm yent, but doesnt bring back the baca, doesnt bring back the eagle fort, so they dont have to worry about a flood of u. S. Production. I think they think they can manage the u. S. Producers at 50 to 60. While at the same time, meeting some of their fiscal requirements. I mean, this was done because some of the keo peck producers are really feeling the strain of low oil prices. So its the new goldilocks, not 75, 80 right now. Its brian kelly. Im curious on the demand side. Thats the bearish case for oil. A slow to slower global economy. Demand not going to be there, even if it goes up to 16. An everyone willing of supply. What do you see on the demand side of it . We dont think demand has been spectacular, but pretty sed steady. We think it will be a 1, 1. 2 milli 1. 2 million demand growth this year. The highlight for demand growth has been india. And so i think thats what were going to be looking for the end of growth, not just this year but for the next couple years. I dont think demand is really the problem in this market. The problem in this market has been persistent oversupply. So thats why its important that opec take action today. Its tim. What tongue do you think about technology being seen done in the u. S. How about what it could be doing to old soviet fields or venezuela . And couldnt we have a massive new glut of oil coming on from people you cant control who really need it . Venezuela is already down 300,000 barrels a day because they cant pay their employees. I dont think venezuela is really going to be looking to for the shale oil revolution. Questions about argentina. Again, youve got to incentivize companies to go there. Shale has been productive in the u. S. It hasnt really taken off anywhere else. So, you know, potentially in time. But thats not a factor right now. What i mean, clearly, you think that there is an agreement in place. What are some of the reasons why opec might not follow through in november . What should we be looking for in terms of this deal not making place . What you want to watch for is how do you accommodate iran . Basically details to be determined. Iran is a pretty aggressive going into these negotiations. The saudis had to give ground to them. So that posititentially could dl it. The saudis are going to basically bear the burden of this. Theyre going to go down to basically january levels. But i expect it actually to hold for now. All right. Helema, thank you. The prices arent going to be enough to bring back the bakken players so maybe the rally were seeing in some of them are misplaced. Because its not just the price. The price has to be sustained long enough to get people to feel comfortable, you know, reengaging. But the names you want to look at now in addition to the small caps are the guys that left themselves with enough operational leverage and taking market share, eog, apache, san darko, the names that continue to do well and i think saudi arabia at a 13, 14 fiscal deficit on their budget is actually hurting a lot more than iran who has been used to sanctions and surviving. Its something to think about why saudi is giving in here. The impact i think on high yield was very interesting today. We did see that bump a little bit higher on the headlines of this deal. And the banks, too. Yes. So you saw everything that we worried about earlier in the year just is completely off the table. At this point in time. So there is likely this runway. So you have a lot of things converging here. You have from now until november for oil to run higher. That could also have an impact on what the fed does in december. Of so the next two months, youre fine. After that, i would be a little concerned. But i think you can buy the the banks on this, and i think you can buy the oil sounds like a gold locks period here for the next two months, right, guy . On the sidelines. Oil is higher. No longer worrying the credit market. Never a fan of that what is it, like a fable . Or what do you call goldilocks. Are we or are we not. Amazing we got to that place. Up next, Hillary Clinton may have just won over a crucial block of voters. Well tell you who they are and what it could mean for the markets. Plus, check out shares of intracellular. Thats a real livestock. Its down 70 in the after hours session. This is a 2 billion company. So what is taking it down . Well tell you right after this break. And later, a strange and rare market anomaly could be signaling a sell sign to the market. What it is and why you should be concerned when fast money returns. Do you worry if youve saved enough for retirement . Are you or your spouse 62 or older . A governmentbacked reverse mortgage enables you to turn the equity youve built into the retirement you deserve. With over 20 years in the mortgage business, lendingtree allows you to compare free reverse mortgage offers with no obligation. Just go to lendingtree. Com or call now to get started. Live in your home and get the steady income you need. Enjoy your family. Your home. Your life. Lendingtree. When banks compete, you win. Welcome back to fast money. Breaking news on a new poll naming the winner of monday nights debate. John harwood in d. C. For details. Melissa, new results from the nbc new survey Monkey Online Poll conducted. It shows by a 5221 margin, americans thought, that is likely voters, thought that Hillary Clinton won that first debate only 21 thought. A couple of significant findings beneath that top line win for Hillary Clinton. First of all, she managed to strengthen her democratic base, which is an important priority, because she needs to motivate them to get them to turn out to vote. So you see that 50 of democrats said their opinion of Hillary Clinton, even though shes been known for a long time, changed for the better after the debate just a couple percent said it got worse. Donald trump had only a quarter of republicans saying their opinion changed for the better of him. 6 said it changed for the worse. And a critical target group is female voters. Donald trump has been running behind among them. He needs to make up some of that gender gap. We saw that among women, Hillary Clinton improved her standing by 3013, more than 2 to 1. Donald trump went backwards by 21. 11 of women said their opinion of donald trump changed for the better. 27 said it changed for the worse. And finally, melissa, 69 of female likely voters say donald trump does not have the personality and temperament to serve as president. That is a huge obstacle facing him as he moves toward election day, needs to do something about that in debates number two and three. 69 . John, thank you. John harwood in d. C. To go back to your goldilocks theory, brian kelly. Does this feed into it . Right, yeah. Im not sure that i want to be paints as the goldilocks guy, but i would say, that is one more obstacle out there, one more thing the market was worried about that perhaps now you dont doesnt need to be worried about. I think this sets you up for an election fade, though. Especially so hillary, you know, if we go sideways, dovish, fed leave it own, back to where we were with someone who is terrible for business, terrible for reinvestment. You get a little fiscal package. But the bottom line here is, if people are complaining about valuations here, how are they going to look at them in a Hillary Clinton presidency . So i dont think this is great news for the market, even though i think thats the practical reality of debate. I agree. For health care and biotech, interesting, it didnt come up. Im not sure if it was supposed. But for the pressure on these stocks, i think that was interesting. Speaking of biotech, more breaking news on a particular biotech stock actually down almost 70 after earnings. Seema mody has the details. Intracellular therapies under pressure here after announcing a disappointing phase three trial of a new kind of schizophrenia drug. The data doesnt show that it did significantly better than a placebo. The company says it thinks the placebo Response Rate was unusually high and that it is committed to continue developing the drug, and is also requesting a meeting with the fda. But you can see shares down about 68 here after hours, melissa. All right. Seema mody, thank you. And remember, this is not certainly the first biotech stock we have seen with this sort of binary outcome. We had nova vax, same thing. I dont want to say onetrick pony, but a lot of eggs in this basket. You can see how devastating that is. It would be easy say on had flush its a stock you want to take a look at. I dont think it is. I think there is at least a few more days of this. The volume over the week is going to be huge. Maybe well talk about this when it gets to single digits. At the same time, we have seen the same thing in reverse where we have seen the decline in shares because originally news is perceived as bad and then it turns out to be okay. Roller coaster ride. I dont know about anything on the drug side of it, but just looking at the Balance Sheet, with this market cap being absolutely crushed, it looks to me like 400plus million of cash. I dont know what their burn rate is, but now youre looking at something very different. Its not i mean, thats close to a kind of flier. Because the market because the value especially if what they suggested that the data may be i dont want to say skewed, but it sounds like that the placebo was outside the range that you would expect a placebo to be. So maybe there was something incorrect with the study. So what im saying, if its a flier, you actually maybe have a little bit of a fundamental reason to buy. Really . Not tomorrow, though. No, no. Oh, my god yeah, yeah. But youre saying this thing is not trading one times cash, effectively. And that looks interesting. Less. But i dont know how big the burn is. I dont know how quickly. Still ahead, one trader betting a whopping 60 million on one of the streets leastloved stocks. Which one . Well give you the name and tell you what has them making such a bold move. Im melissa lee, youre watching fast money on cnbc. Human sacrifice, dogs and cats, living together. Mass hysteria. Thats exactly what is happening to the relationship between stocks and bonds and it could signal a Tipping Point for the rally. Well explain. Plus, football ratings are getting sacked. And it could spell trouble for a number of stocks. Well tell you which ones when fast money returns. Welcome back to fast money. Take a look at the moves in both cbs and viacom. The Holding Company of red stone, which owns 80 voting control of viacom and cbs is preparing a call for the companies to explore a merger. But this shouldnt come as a surprise. Last week, bank of america analyst jessica reef cohen had this to say. I wouldnt rule out cbs. Viacom needs a lot of help. We have underperformed for years. Its completely mismanaged or under there are assets that can be fixed. No reason why para mount could not be fixed. Absolutely, it can. So this will make an attractive position. The story is not completely done. All right. So lets trade this. Lets say you were the ceo of a media company, one of the fastestgrowing Media Co