The dollar surging it its highest level in a month and gold having its worst day in nearly three years. So are the markets signalling the rate rise is coming and what could that mean for the rally and your money . Tim, what do you think . Well, i think were back to, you know, fedspeak that has people at least letting us know where there it is in the fed. I think they make the point this isnt just possibly about one and done. And i think the point is that they are actually concerned about systemic risks in the system. So on a day where weve got the general counsel for the ecb was talking ahead of an imf meeting about what it might look like to take off qe in europe. And suddenly, you have Central Bank Machinations which leave people concerned. But wasnt gold supposed to be this fair weather friend that worked in any situation, including Central Banks that were screwing up . I thought so. A hint of sarcasm there. More than just a hint. I think the entire day was predicated on those ecb headlines, without question. I think they came out and maybe im complete conspiracy theorist. I think this he came out as sort of a lifeline to Deutsche Bank. Clearly, negative rates across europe are not working for the banks. And Deutsche Bank needs all the help they can get. So conspiracy theorists or not, that stock got a oneday bailout. Should gold have worked . I understand why it went down today. But ive got to tell you something. Of tim is right. This has been a tough trade for the last couple months. Bond yields, what does it mean . I dont think it means anything here for the united states. I still think were in this deflationary spiral. What. Do you do with the plays people piled into. Utilities, it wasnt just today. Yesterday there was also a huge selloff. Yeah, so it was utilities, staples, the xlp, etf broke down from a range consolidating and a lot of people hanging out. They were being thought this was a relatively safe place to be. And i think it does it is a factor of positioning. I think it was a very crowded trade. And heres the thing. Of ive just got to tell you, when you look at staples, utilities, metals and mining the way that acted today and obviously had a lot to do with gold. Where do you go . What takes the market to new highs . Is it going to be tech . I dont know. I dont know if that becomes such a concentrated trade. We know that it is, that you have the same sort of risk. The gbx has done 10 today, when everyone is heading for the door at the same time. I bring that up, because it seems that mega cap tack is a safety trade, just like the others. Its a safety trade and the reason i like the mega cap tech still, you look at the yield, growth, all of those factors, all play together. Some of the names you mentioned earlier, utilities and so forth. A lot of us on the desk, tim has talked about this a lot, ive been here talking about it. You look at the valuations. Are they a bit stretched right now in some of these names . And i think we would agree, say yes, but thats what Everyone Wants to do so piling in a trade. The most interesting thing, when gold broke 1300 today, thats when the acceleration downward really started to move. And that was really right around noon. From noon until the close today, it was absolutely goldled and Everything Else seemed to follow except financials. It still seems to be the place if were looking for the next leg up and its going to have to be if rates start to rise, is going to be something with those financials that havent been performing yet. I think if gold is selling off, its very constructive signal. That to me was such a safety trade. I dont think big cap was safety. I actually think you only mentioned gold, not gold plus bonds . When i look at todays activity, i think the u. S. Bond market is being pushed around by global rates, because this was this is the flight to quality. So the fact its selling off a little bit you have to watch the dollar. The dollars breakout today is above the 200. The dollar struggled getting through there every single time. And everybodys bet on anything on this desk, i have to tell you, is subject to a move on the dollar one way or another. Dollar has been sideways. If thats not the case, youve got to recalibrate. I want to connect the dots of what you said earlier. You thought a lot of people were hanging on the safety trades, dividend yielders, not so safe the past couple takes. You also think people are hanging out in technology. What really is left here in this market . Or is that the overriding theme. A great example. Look how expensive the stocks were. On a historical basis relative to the market. So to me, that was a really that was a bad trade. I actually thought it was all clear until the december fed meeting and i thought that it was going to be demand for of this. The tlt, its 135, 135, 138. It hasnt gone down too much here. So, you know, i dont know. Maybe it is one and done in december. But big cap tech, im just telling you guys, microsoft is trading at 20 times. So what do you buy then . I actually think, though listen, i think we drift a bit higher here, okay . Especially if Hillary Clinton continues to build this lead. I think its going to be okay. And then you have to get your arms around what does the rate tightening cycle look like . Is it going to be one and done or whatever . And listen, last time, guys, when the market topped out, it was about 5 . 2000, 6 . They need to get fed funds higher sooner than later. So what is it, spoos and 2s . Thats my girl right there. What would you buy in this environment . Can we talk thats what tim taught you, right . Levered energy, anadarko up today, and marginally. And i think health care is still cheap and the rhetoric in the Health Care Space is going to wane as we get closer to the election. Higher rates for industrials. Look at the way the autos have performed after terrible numbers yesterday. Look at the airlines. And this is where you have a valuation argument. The things we said two weeks ago, someone reported out on gm said the earnings were going to be sideways. Do you want cyclicals . Absolutely. And the valuations give you a lot of support, and they give you some defensive nature the biggest push back i got on dane right now, when he talks about the valuations and tech space where people are going to hide. I dont agree, at wall. I think you can support some of the levels where theyre higher than they have been in the past. Because they finally have the growth that actually can support them. Lets just talk about two stocks. Lets do it. 750 billion in market cap. Its amazon and facebook and theres nobody with a brain in their head that can make a valuation argument. Wait. You have both of them, right . Yeah. Yeah. His head nobrainer. I know. Growth versus valuation. And let me tell you when you have growth and valuation. In other words, if you have enough growth for a higher valuation, that to me makes some sense. Justified. When it starts to slow, then things change dramatically. Until that happens, we havent seen it in facebook yet. We havent seen a lot of these names to the up side. I think a salesforce. Com comes in there. You look at sales force right now. Look at how that traded today. But really . Do you think the 81 to 60 you dont think some of that pullback salesforce. Com is a, whats going to happen to facebook 100 wrong. That went down because everybody is suspecting theyre going to pay 20 billion to buy twitter or not. Thats why the stock went down. No other reason it was heading towards the highs. Went down 5 or 6 after the growth accelerated. A Company Trading so much growth, they continue to acquire, the acquisitions impressive. If they do twitter hold on. Guy adami. Hello. Facebook and amazon. Are they the next crms . Are they the next crms in terms of going lower . Yes. Thats what dan was positing. If you made me pick between the two, i think amazon has more likely has more likely move to the down side than facebook. Somewhat insulated in facebook. I think amazon has the potential to give you a tape bomb. I think i think the defensiveness in big cap tech hasnt just been about amazon and how about microsoft . And cisco . Mid 90s also paying a decent dividend and stocks relative to their history, depending which history you want to choose. Thats the big argument. Its true. These companies have remade themselves. Whats their multiple . Microsoft obviously doesnt trade at the multiple. But meanwhile, growth rate guys, guys. Hold on. The nasdaq 100 is 100 stocks. We all agree on that . Five of those stocks make up 2 trillion whats the biggest one of those stocks . Whats the biggest of 40 more seconds of this and thats it. What do you want to do apple trades at 14 with 200 billion times up. Moving on. Just saying. Can we bring someone else into this conversation . Yes. Lets do that. While wall street grapples whether it will ruin the rally, one strategist says fear not. Tony dwyer who toned down his forecast, here to argue his new bull case for stocks. This is interesting. This is exactly a time when a lot of people were saying this is not the time to be in the markets, or its a time to have the most cash on hand and were going to enter a volatile period. Why bullish now . The day i turn neutral this summer, it was in mid july, in anticipation of 3 to 5 crash and we talked, who cares, a 3 to 5 correction, nothing. But when youre down to 3 to 5 , it doesnt feel like nothing. It feels its going to accelerate and get worse. Were getting the weakness. And this whole gold move today ties into it. Lets look at a time where youve heard about Central Bank Talk about tapering, gold shellacked. Interest rates up from 1. 4 on their way through 2 . How about 3 . And the markets are up 30 . That would be 2013. So the idea that gold is telling us something, or higher bond yields are telling us something, thats not accurate in my opinion. You want the offensive trade. Not shockingly to frequent viewers, tim and i, probably agree. We call it an offensive bond surrogate versus a defensive bond surrogate. The defensive to dans point, defensive stocks have been overvalued for a long timing. Even the professional Money Managers i talked to in the divide income funds have moved away from them and into the more offensive sectors like financials, industrials. I would even though health care in there where you have some higher yielding names that arent in those that space where everybody else is trapped. All right. Well, heres the thing. So it makes perfect sense to rotate into cyclicals, if you think youre going to get this reinflation of growth. But there is so little areas around the globe that suggest we are going to have this reflaigs. Thats the risk and then you have a scenario where possible the fed starts tightening into a weakening u. S. Economy. Let me throw some data by you. In the last 48 hours, all the global economies report their pmis. The vast majority are now positive above 50. According to my friends are where i get my charts, as you guys know, theres a lead by the global pmis to Global Industrial production in two months with a. 86 correlation. For the viewers, that just means they move together. With a global pmi leading. So the data is showing youre inflecting better in Industrial Production already, and now that should be set to accelerate, and we are a lot of investors are worried about what happens when the fed raises rates. Could this be a replay of last year . Its absolutely opposite day going into that. The emerging currencies are in an up trend, not a down trend. Commodities outside of gold today are rallying. Theyre in an up trend, not a down trend. Corporate credit last year and i was so mad at myself for missing this. The remember china . The china market crash last august created our market crash . The flash crash . And then we recovered into the end of the year . Corporate bonds never did. Yields stayed high. There was still pain in the credit market. Its opposite day. Credit is wide open. And obviously, on weak days like this and yesterday its not true. I want to buy the weakness. So to the earlier prompt in, im not really aggressive right now. Im getting ready to be pretty aggressive. And into the end of the year. Into the end of the year. With the elections happening, with its great point, melissa. Because typically, if you look at what happens on an incumbent win versus a nonincumbent win in a president ial election, the market typically bottoms before the election. Actually, before november. So weve got a couple weeks left with some of this pain. If its going to go down, its going down now. In anticipation of a move higher. We went neutral from aggressive, which why wouldnt you make a bear trade . Lets talk about brexit. You felt right for two days and then spanked three days later. So i dont want a trend called the down side. What i want to be ready to do is take advantage of it. You cant be aggressive if youre already aggressive. So i turned neutral you know, nid july on the show. And it was for that. Im about ready to get aggressive again. How much of this is bottom up and top down . Because to be very encouraged you have to have a view youre going to see the earnings acceleration the bar is very low. So i think its probably a tail wind. But topdown is brexit maybe didnt happen. The top the bottomsup side is good. Going into earnings season which starts next week. Right now the the current consensus is from minus 2 growth. This cycle, every single quarter, the number has gone up from the beginning of earnings season to the end. So by 3. 5 . So you should be betting its up 1. 5 . This is a replay of 85, 86 when the Energy Market did the same thing. 69 drop on opec increasing production to shut down production. And ultimately, that led to a 55 gain in the market as Industrial Production recovered globally. Good to see you. Thank you. Good to see you guys. Better watch out, i dont want to interrupt you guys. Youre good. Tony has been spoton for a long time. My question to him, we didnt have enough time, what would throw a Monkey Wrench into this whole thing . My sense it would be central bank missteps, which we may or may not be on the verge of. Coming up, Airline Stocks jumping today even in the down market and so are another group of travelrelated stocks. What they are and if its not too late to buy. And google with a number of new products taking direct aim at amazon and apple, but may have tripped themselves up in the process. Plus, as Hillary Clinton climbs in the polls, traders making big bets that one group of stocks set to surge in the week. What they are, later this hour. They may want the latest products and services, but they demand the best shopping experiences. Theyre your customers. And by blending physical with digital, cognizant is helping 8 of the 10 largest u. S. Retailers meet their demands with more responsive retail models. Ones that transcend channels and locations, anticipate expectations. Creating new ways to engage at every imaginable touchpoint. Its a new day in retail, and together, were building the store of the future. Digital works for retail. Lets talk about how digital works for your business. Welcome back to fast money. Airline stocks jumping today, and that kicks off our top trade names like delta, jetblue, as delta says passenger revenue up for the month of september. And this is part of a broader trend we have seen in the travel industry. In fact, airlines up 12 in the last three months, and stocks like price line hitting an alltime high today, up 17 in the last three months while expedia up 10 in the same time frame. Tim. First of all, priceline is the premier name. Valuation wise, whats the right multiple . These guys dominate the space 18 times, i think. I think there is a lot of competition from facebook, a lot of competition from google. Of but i can these guys continue to carve out their space, property ads, Third Quarter numbers should be good. Gave you guidance. I would stay in that trade. You still like the airline i do. Im back into a couple of them. Ive been in american a long time. Calls way out in january, delta just yesterday, because there was huge call activity. Jetblue yesterday, as well. Im in a couple different names. I wish i was in priceline. When you look at the growth, tim, you talked about trading at about Something Like 18ish or something yeah. But you look at the cash flows and what their Profit Growth is annually, 20 . I mean, there is so much reasons we should all have probably been in this name. And have just in my case, anyway buying back stock trading at 1500 at the highs, give or take, and yet still seems like its a reasonable price. Priceline or airlines . Can i say expedia . Yeah, sure. Okay. Expedia is one throw out all of the rules. Who cares . When you look at some of the m a going on in technology and reasons people are saying crm is hooking at twitter. Look at the data. Think of the search data that expedia, price line has. Expedia at a 17 billion market cap could be something that got folded into, lets say, a google or any number of other players there. So thats one thats interesting to me. Priceline is a cheap stock and have better growth. And is the highs are still cheap. Thats the amazing part. Can i throw an airline in, since were playing a game . Yeah. One hasnt been mentioned but we talk about from time to time, a stock doing well over the past couple weeks, Spirit Airlines. Reports at the end of this month, if you look, heres a stock thats been in a down trend since april. But through 45, and were pretty close, this stock breaks out. So Spirit Airlines into earnings might give you the best beta out of all of them. Still ahead, shares of micron falling after hours. Well get the latest from the earnings report. Im melissa lee. Youre watching fast money on cnbc, first in business worldwide. In the meantime, heres what else is coming up on fast. Guy adami is serving up the pitch, giving you the one stock he sees as a home run for your portfolio. Plus, drugs, sex and guns. Lawyers guns and money just a few of the things reportedly for sale on facebooks new exchange. Id buy that for a dollar but could the stumble indicate a larger problem at the social giant . Well explain when fast money returns. Welcome back to fast money. Preparations are under way for tonights Vice President ial debate in virginia. Mike pence and tim kaine expected to square off on jobs, the economy and trade. And one emerging market a big focus if the