Transcripts For CNBC Fast Money 20161209 : vimarsana.com

CNBC Fast Money December 9, 2016

Will it come next week . What will take us there, and what could you still buy . Guy, what do you say . Well, what was that a percent and a half away now . Again, im not pretending im a raging bull. Its somewhat disin general would you say of president elect. Its been rallying the last eight years. The banks are probably going to continue to go higher, not because i necessarily believe it. But i think what is happening here, people are saying, whats price to book in niece banks, where were they in 2007 . Theyre not going to get to those levels. Goldman sachs at twoandahalf times price to book. Goldman sachs at 1. 8 times makes it a 308 five 5 stock. It feels like everything is priced to perfection. Were would you set that would you have said that last week . I would have said it last week. But heres what ill say. Talking about drifting higher. Were drifting higher for one reason and one reason only. Maybe a few reasons. This repositioning trade is massive. It can go a lot further than you expect. I do believe its a sell at the beginning of the year. I just cant see us sustaining these levels. Whats going to sell the market off . Going to 5 . You know the fed no one cares about the fed. No one cares about the fed. When was the last time the market absolutely cares. Doesnt care. Doesnt care. Weve got the fed next week. Hold it, you guys all at the same time. Tim, talk. The fed has been clearly a sideshow to elections and obviously to a story where Business Confidence look at the confidence numbers out today. Consumer confidence, tenth of a point off the high since 2004. So, yes. We know that the market is very euphoric as david is saying. Except if businesses continue to spend and very smart economists have gone from being very cautious to being very optimistic on next year, based upon fundamental fiscal change in our economy. So what do you buy . You buy the reflation trades and the things that have been working all along. Ag is starting to rip. If you look at what we have here in the commodities space and what we have in the mining space and what we have in the autos, look at gm. Thats where you get valuation and you also get industrial. This is 100 because of trump. Without question. Theres no way the market did nothing. It grinded sideways basically for an extended period of time. This is because this is the first time were looking at pro growth policies, the first time were looking at gdp increasing global with the effects of united states. This is a huge boon for business. Let me make a point. Its going to take 12 to 18 months for any of these policies or any of these not the tax policies. But to hit earnings. Really show the bottom lines. What if the fed becomes more hawkish . Much more hawkish . Like rates rose the fed has to it doesnt matter. When was the last time when was the last time on this desk this fed has snuck up on us . Nobody cares any more. How quiet has the fed been . Rates without the fed the only thing ill give you this. Company buybacks. I think the cost of capital, that will be a big event. But the market is factoring in growth. Inflation expectations at 12year highs. Probably pretty well behind the curve on inflation. And to say the fed doesnt matter here to me, i dont think youre saying that, steve, because if you are saying it, its an absurd thing to say that is the most important thing. The most not right now. For this it was. It was two months ago. Let me ask you, what if the fed comes out in the News Conference and says something to the effect of, we are open and we have to be open to multiple rate increases. Were behind the curve. Actually were behind the curve. Multiple raises. Now youre talking about multiple raises versus the 25 bips we have been talking about . But doesnt youre not going to come out and say that. Doesnt the rate rise . What happens if trump goes after hes already done that. So you think the market is immune to that. I think the market i think the market this is about a chase right now. This is about an allocation. We all know that. This is not about valuation. This is about allocation. The market was caught way offsides. Yes. But the risk here with the fed is that the fed is behind the curve now. I think tim and its interesting what he brings up. Ive tried to bring it up, maybe i havent done it correctly. But if they do raise, which i think were pretty much all in agreement they will. I think youre going to see some sort of tweak storm from president elect trump saying, see this this weighted. Rigged system, they waited for me to be named president before they look at the way this whatever ack adjective you want to throw in. I do think that the fed matters. The reason were not talking about it is, because maybe they are passing the baton from Monetary Policy to fiscal policy, at exactly the right time. Which the fed welcomes. If the fed raises it behind the curve, does that make people buy more financials or less financials . They have been underweight financials. A large portion of the market ripping higher was financials and energy. Why is it that higher rates now when for the first nine months of this year people were parading around saying that the banks were under credit pressure and oh, my goodness, the banks actual balance sheets. I totally get it. You cant have it both ways. Youre looking at it in a very perfect 20 to focus. This is about allocation. This is underweight. George brett, me and you. The only three guys. If you look right now, guys were grossly underweight. Energy and financials and they have not caught up yet. But we look at earnings decelerating. Earnings have decelerated. If topline growth doesnt pick up enough to offset the risks of stock buybacks slowing down, its a big problem. So thats thats the i think the fed is the biggest risk right now to the stock market. I think the fed is the biggest risk to the stock market. Period. There is really nothing else. It overhangs it and the fed getting more hawkish. Why is the market ripped higher until now . You know what is fascinating to me, you guys have having a very spirited debate. How many times have i had to step in and say, everybody shut up. Not too often. Not too often. But the bottom line here is all you guys think the market is going to drift higher. We see, the point is the point is, it doesnt matter. What hold on, hold on. Hold on. Yes. What do you buy now . You drift higher, thats the market we have. The financials drift higher. You answered my question. Tim. First of all, the best week in the markets this week was in europe. And in fact, they had their best week in four years. And if you think about whats going on right now, the rest of the world is probably the one that gets the benefit of the u. S. Economy. Who cares whats going on with trade. If you believe steve, if you believe a lot of people, trade will be reworked in a way thats constructive on every front. Thats a fair thing to suppose at this point. If you think about saying, so what did i buy today . More mosaic, ago agree yum, names that to me i think have not only lagged the rally but if we have the kind of inflation good for these guys, theyre going a lot higher. I bought more spdrs, more macro. Thats what spdrs are. I bought home builders. You want to look at whats the next domino in the trade. When you look at names that have revenue, domestically facing, those are the ones outsized advantage over lower corporate tax. A name like honeywell, for example. Gotten back that loss it had a couple monthsing with when they gave lousy guidance. Lagged the industrials, which it hasnt done in the last ten years. If youre looking for a name that generally dont like doing the catchup trade, but i think in this case you can with hon. Its been a while since steve has sauntered over to the smart board. Please do that. And well play a little west side story as you walk over there. So lets look at it here. Lets look at the this feels like it was eons ago in the s p, 1991. So lets lets take it from here. This is the recent high. This is the recent low. And now when you do everyone knows i like the fibonacci replacemen replacements. From that point to that point, overshoot levels. Thats how you have to look at this. Everyone knows if youre a fbi guy, you look for your 50 and 618, the biggest overshoot levels you want to focus in on. Thats the sell zone when you trade up higher. Its this level right here. 22, 48. All the way up to 22. 61. We spent most of the day right here in the middle. Do you sell the market or does it have really a lot of torque, the word i like to use. And it does feel like it does have a lot of torque. Maybe you bet a little bit of a reversion. I dont think you could see you get a lot of it, but i think you go to those round numbers. Everyone talks about dow 20,000. You talk about s p 2,300. Thats the next area. If we blow through that area, 22. 6 22. 61, the next one is 23. 00. A couple point away from that level. Should we invite him over . Dont ask tim let him stay up there with his espresso. Oh ata boy, come own over, my man. How long does it have to be above 22. 61, because were two points away. Everyone knows i talk about the threeday rule. I would go with the same type of thing. Threeday rule. Every time you wait for any type of a respite, going into yearend. Funds are grossly offsides on their allocation. I dont think youre going to see much of a replacement if you get it. Yeah. Seabrook . I think the risk reward here from me from a trading perspective, youre right. Higher. No question about it. I dont believe in chasing stocks for the sake of chasing stocks. I think youll be selective in this tape and careful what youre buying within these different subsectors. Its very stockspecific now. If you go out and just chase for the sake of chasing, i think you can run into serious trouble. The one i look at it, actually been a pretty decent indicator is the russell, iwm. To me, as long as that stays, and its pretty significantly above that now, as long as it stays above 131, i think the s p is just sort of in this levitate mode and the transports appear low and i say that, appear as though they broke through potentially a double top on the upside. We almost didnt invite you over. Oh, could have started the weekend right now. Coming up, the polar vortex is back. And what may be bad news for your weekend plans, it could be good news for a number of stocks. We have those names after the break. Plus, tech is finally joining in on the trump rally. One name traders think could break out to flush eyes. We have the stock and the best way to play it. Plus the chart master is here and he says Goldman Sachs is priced to perfection. What should you do now . We have that answer, later this hour. Much more fast money still ahead. Mary buys a little lamb. One of millions of orders on this companys servers. Accessible by thousands of suppliers and employees globally. But with Cyber Threats on the rise, marys data could be under attack. With the help of at t, and security that senses and mitigates Cyber Threats, their Critical Data is safer than ever. Giving them the agility to be open secure. Because no one knows like at t. Can this much love be cleaned by a little bit of dawn ultra . Oh yeah one bottle has the grease cleaning power of two bottles of this bargain brand. A drop of dawn and grease is gone. Generosity is its oyou can handle being a mom for half an hour. Im in all the way. Is that understood . I dont know what shes up to, but its not good. Cant the world be my noodles and butter . Get your mind out of the gutter. Mornings are for coffee and contemplation. That was a really profound observation. You got a mean case of the detox blues. Dont start a war you know youre going to lose. Finally you can now find all of netflix in the same place as all your other entertainment. On xfinity x1. Welcome back. In case you didnt get the memo, its cold outside as a polar vortex sweeps the nation. Just how old . Lets go to guy adami, at the smart board. Mel, take a look at my map. Ive always wanted to do this. Were talking about vortexes, polar stuff. Weve got some clipper systems coming down. Look at bismarck, north dakota, tim. I know youre a fan. Min minus 4, man. Check out tomorrow. 5 degrees. Thats cold, folks. I encourage you to wear hats and scarves. We have a lot of things going on on the national map, as well. Here we have in the east coast, when you get this clipper system coming down from the great lakes, a lot of lakeeffect snow for you folks in the northeast here in the syracuse area. Be careful. Burlington, a great coat factory there, i encourage you to bundle up, as well. But tallahassee, florida, in the 30s, man. That is crazy. Thats College Football season. I dont know whats going on. But look at duluth. Youve seen the commercials. They make great underwear. 0 degrees in duluth, man its nuts wear hats, wear gloves, wear your scarves, man. Cold weekend. Bundle up. Ive the trade for you, but im throwing it back to the desk, mel. Wow. Lonnie quinn, you better watch out. Guy adami is gunning for you. I dont know. I dont think al roker has anything to worry about now. Heres one thing we can agree on. The cold weather outside could be a major catalyst. Kicks of off our top trades. Seaburg, you mentioned the aforementioned Burlington Coat factory last night. Cold weather, we talked about it last night. If you look back, usually means theyre going to hit the top end of the comp. Range. Gap store is great to own. Walmart is another really strong name to own. And cold stores. These are stocks i would look at buying to really benefit from the cold weather out there. Mallbased stores. I agree with that, and as you pointed out, and you did a great job last night. Korchs are easy. But people staying inside. Polar vortex, youre staying inside and staying away from guys like guy adami. Ultimately, an amston trade. The Holiday Shopping trades. If its so cold in what was it truth . Where is the underwear capital of the world . Duluth. Those people in duluth are hunkered in and staying in the skivvies and means youre actually on amazon and ordering a bunch of christmas presents. Amazon runs away from this. Hold on. Other side of the desk. Other side of the desk. Guy had skivvies in college, right . What do you mean, had . I would go to the retail space but the automotive. I go Oreilly Automotive after you get plows, spreaders. Things like that. Spreaders. Advanced auto parts, auto zone. And a name i always like talking about, deckers up 31 . They should actually kill it, you would think, on paper in a world like this. Thats what you wear, right . The uggs. And the uggs. What is that . Think about what youre going to do. Steve talks about this one. You know, its not a pizza company. Its technology company. Dominos. Order in . I wont, but other people will. But also, you said it before. Netflix. Netflix. Look at that at 123. I mean, thats ultimately, it has to come back to a trade you actually stand beside. Ill stand right beside it there, party boy you like netflix right here. Let it get to your head. The clipper effect. Like my hat . Its mine, by the way. So is the scarf. So is the scarf. Next up, ceo cocacola stepping down after an eightyear run. Will he be replaced . He will be replaced, i should say, by the president and chief operating officer quincy since he took over in 2008. The stock up 60 . But it struggled in the last few years as soda sales have continued to drop. Its been a decadeslong drop, tim. You owned coke . I do. By the way, as maligned as cocacola is, look at the five year and tenyear chart. Its been sideways. The company and mr. Quincy, i think, have been slowly preparing this company to get out of the core reliance on the carbonated soft drink industry and get to monster brands. They have another of other channels they continue to grow. They have gotten through refranchising the bottomlers. This is a very important time. This change has been in the books for two years. 70 of its sales still from soda. And isnt the core of the problem that 70 of the sales is from soda and thats a declining area . Ty cli declining. One of the reasons why pepsi changed to cocacola. One of the reasons they deserve a multiple. Im not trying to put words in your mouth. Would you rather. Pepsi over coke because of the reasons you just mentioned. I do think this comes up coke. A choice between the two pep. Consumer staple name . Pepsi over coke. Coke has challenges. I think you go coke. If you look at it as the other two have had activists at some point in their names, and this one, when you read anything about it, whats the thing that stands in the way of an activist . Buffett. 9 . If buffett somehow gets out of the way, you start to see maybe an activist run into coke or start rattling the cage of coke and there is your catchup trade. Thats a lot of ifs, though. A very difficult time for the stock. Owns 9 of the company. Depends on how he gets out of the way. Maybe if he starts to rattle cages. Maybe if he starts talking about it. We have never seen him in an activist roles. But at a certain point if your stock is a poopoo name, you start to rattle the cage. This is a family show. Poopoo name. I thought you were talking about something else. Coming up, yearend bonuses on the rise and four stocks you should be buying. Im melissa lee, and youre watching fast money on cnbc, first in business worldwide. Heres what else is coming up on fast. Im really rich. And so too are investors as the trump rally rages on. If you missed the move, relax. Weve got the names you can still buy. Plus up up and away goldman shares continue to rocket higher. There is something that suggests now might be the time to sell. Well tell you what that is when fast money returns. A basketball costs 14. Whats team spirit worth . cheers whats it worth to talk to your mom . Whats the value of a walk in the woods . The value of capital is to create, not just wealth, but things that matter. Morgan stanley its your tv, take it with you. With directv and at t, stream live tv anywhere datafree. Join directv today starting at 35 month. No extra monthly fees. Welcome back to fast money. A Restoration Hardware plunging after reporting weaker than expected earnings after the bell. The Luxury Furniture giant blaming a number of things from delayed catalog to the president ial election for a rough quarter. Time, this was your final trade a couple days ago. I have a position in it. Its one thats going to kill me. I dont think anything has changed. Im not surprised this is a company that went from 90 bucks down to 26, because it had problems. I think its on the mend. A lot of it is inventory issues, a lot of it is getting their own specialty Buyer Program off the ground. I am a big believer in the thematic Home Improvement trade. These guys at this multiple, i think makes some sense. And this is a price to sales. The earnings multiple not that attractive. Again, this is not a data throw this thing out the window. Isnt it concerning when

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