More pain. He tells us where he thinks the stock is going thats where we start on tesla slam iming the breaks as it stas to ramp up its model 3 production having its worst day in a year and now, nearing bear market territory. A number of factors weighing on the stock. One of the sectors for tesla, the thu target is is. But heres part of the reason. Theyre questioning whether or not we are seeing plateauing in terms of demand. Currently out there for sale, 22,100 in the Second Quarter it breaks down more model s than x, but goldman says that is a sind of what we have seen for four quarters in a row of sales between 22 and 25,000 vehicles and as a result, goldman has cut its target down 180 tlrs this comes as weare looking at the mod 3 production this month and ramping up at a dramatic pace through the end of this year first deliveries come at the end of this. The model 3 rate should hit a rate of monthly production of 20,000 it did say in announcing delivers it expects the same number of sales for the model s and x in the second half of this year so you put those two together, you come up with agent 95,000 vehicle, still unclear how many nmore will be delivered that ar the model 3, so were still waiting on full year delivery. You said it. This was a day when investors were looking at stock saying wow, fair amount of pain after whats been a nice run for the the next six sempb months. Thank you very much with todays sell off, the stock is now down about 15 since hitting a 52week high its nearing bear market territory, so is this stock suddenly a in touch, tim its been a no touch for me 100 bucks ago f. You think about where they have to go in the model three by the end of 2018, you said 500,000 cars. Its nice to see a Market Production number and to talk about demand in a way. Thags been my big issue. Are we price thg as an oil company or much bigger its a 10 trillion market yeah f you listen to people i dont see here that makes hasnt deliveries always been the issue. Every time this comes up, well, deliveries are not going to be able to execute. They said b look, this is more a company about what you said, not an automobile company, the gig fact if you put a value on that as this gentleman did, 50 billion, then you look at where tesla is trading, the automobile part is very small 3 billion, 4 billion, Something Like that. Why is it moving the needle so much . I think it moves occasionally because this is something everybodys looking. I think thats side stuff going on is this an opportunity to buy a weaker stock youre saying its not even an auto company its an Energy Company worth 50 million. These are the near term urdles thats what people have been really focused on. I think theyre spot on. Theyre been wrong for a long time 190 o to 28 18 0 theres an inflection. Expectation scheme gets paid, its expectations versus reality. Tesla is going to own the entire electric car market, youd buy the stock today. I think theres a lot of competition, you heard volvo talking about it getting out of the gasoline car market in 2019 its going to take time. I dont believe that tesla is going to own the market. I think the solarcity acquisition was interesting. The tile roofs and all that stuff. In the long run, may pan out, but this is an amazon like story. Remember amazon during the period and has been a phenomenal investment not if you were investing it from 2000 to 2008. Very different. That needs to continue to deliver and amazon say what they want, amazon made it clear they were going for market share and for a top line, not a bottom line they werent worried about the margin and have been able to show us they can turn it up and meanwhile, theyre continuing to dominate other industries. I dont know why we give tesla credit necessarily for controlling even the electric Battery Market if you get to a place where you have to mass produce something, they tony hadont have the able mass produce something to go to markets again. Theyre burning through an amount of cash its not a auto company. Every time theyve gone to the market and its been absorbed so easily like it never happened. To get to your first question of is it a no touch really depends on what kind of investor are you like hes saying, if you were in the longterm story, then, its a touch. Because you believe in the longterm revolution do you think its going to be at fair value entirely every day along the way . No, but you got to ride those out, but if this momentum in the stock which has been enormous, is what brings you to it, then on the one thing, that could be at the top of the stock when they announce their streaming music. Its stupid for them to talk about stuff like that. This is a celebrity s type ceo only a few in the world that are like him and i think hes gotten better the first ten years of amazons publicly traded life, what was it primarily . Online music retailer . Theyre burning through money in order for market share not fair to compare tesla today versus amazon today because theyre different. You look at amazon during that spending phase of 2000 to 2008 in 2008, you really saw that fiveyear move from 2000 to 2008, it was a sort of sideways stock. It didnt necessarily ratchet up so do i want to own tesla and hope to god they execute at every level to go sideways no, actually, i think you can go a lot lower first. I still, i look at this company and look at elon musk and i know what hes been able to do so far hell be able to raise the money again. I have no question about that in my mind. So then, it just comes down to are you buying it for a car company, something much bigger i look at this as not the car company that everybody looks at it they lose money on their cars. We know that meanwhile, theyre making a profit over at gm. Meanwhile, gm is lagging behind tesla. What mettic rs you looking at this, the model 3 is the number its just like the metrics you looked at with amazon when if youre just looking at the numbers theyre producing and money theyre spending, then youd say this company is growing broke, but the reality is it was building something did you guys have something today . I did not what are you waiting for . No, im not in it right now i would probably say a 10 to 15 drop from yesterday. Especially given where the stock was and where it this is another move 8 or so down this is a very minimal move you say if youre a growth manager and invest thg story years ago. You were buying it for the data. They were bringing a mass market car to the market. Thats this car its a cheap version of the original model. This is a car theyre bringing our gross mortgagargin is goinge anywhere near. Only time will tell. How many is a growth manager going to give if they start to see a slowdown in the earlier models theyre going to get off the throttle and start taking profits. I say the story in tesla could change on dime just from a momentum perspective and have this stock in a spiral pattern for a very long time whats got me excited is the potential for the pick up truck. Thats a few years away, but they are always putting out. Even a crossover. Teslas drop,i giving one short sell egg to talk at. Viewers remember left did decline in valiant stock hes had some good calls in the past always great to get yur per speckive nice b to be here where are you on this trade im imagining youre losing money. One year ago after the solarcity, which was a silly acquisition totally. That stock was about 205. The fact the stock is down 7 right now to the 320s and were discussing is it a good investment or not, its amazing that it got here in the first place. I reshorted the stock on the 350 range and sold more right into the close today. When ever people discuss this as a car company, its a good thing. Ironically, i just heard your conversation and you were saying is it a car xacompany or alternative Energy Company thats worse than the car business look at first solar even alternative Energy Company has not proven this to be disruptive this is a complete shifting. Theyre not modeling it over current as a transformational way of storing energy, of Getting Energy but havent shown a model behind it. Over the past 200 points, weve heard about the gig factory, the power wall i think Morgan Stanley put out a note, its going to be become uber one day. What is your valuation of the sto stock . I think Goldman Sachs was very fair on it. I think a very fair number shortterm a simple thing if you lose without compensat n compensation, how are you going to make money with compensation. On the other side, show me this is not a compounder in order for this stock to go and build it to where it is now, everythings going to have to go right. One thing goes wrong and the stock goes down 7 the questions, can you buy the stock at 300, is it valued no this stock is beyond the real m of its like discussing religion with people thats it. If musk was not with this company tomorrow, where would the stock be you recognize the fact that the drawdown, any hold, the stock goes higher. This has been an almost b possible stock to short, so why nochoose in the universe to have stocks, why choose the one everybody bets against and normally gets it wrong its proper allocation. You never sell too much. I would never suggest if you dont short stocks ive sold some outdated calls on this trz ive used, i will get out and lower the position that traded what i believe to be appropriate. If you look at what happened today, it can do go a lot lower. If youre not short tesla and youre a short seller, what are you short . He said that five weeks ago and the stock was 310 a share so, no ones ever going to short the top. So forget about where it was last week. You have to worry about where its going b to be next week how you move them around you went from a 90 call to a would you change on tesla or you stuck at a certain level nvidia was overvalue and emps feting too enthused about it it was a good company. Its a dream company youre betting on a dream. You can loose a lot on your dream and ive lost money on tesla, so, but i believe that in the future, as we see the situation like we saw delivers fall short you see the news flow shifting on it. If you own the stock for 150, its time take a profit. Why do you think this time is going to be different . I think this time when you see deliveries, it goes to the underline demand for the car not to mention i think theyll see they have 400,000 preorders. The trend rs moving away to the smaller suvs were seeing increasing competition a lot faster in the electric space and not to mention, people like different cars we all dont want to trooif the same car no one ever addressed that theres a reason why the model t ford sold 500,000 cars, because there were no other cars so, its very aggressive and ambitious, but thats a car company. You want to look in an alternative Energy Company, show me a model behind it could the stock bounce 20 of course. Weve seen it in the past. Can they go to wall street for more muoney of course. Is this going tofall apart no andrew, thanks for phoning in always good to t. O. Speak with you. Have a fwraet day andrew left options strategy, which helps him. He mentioned jim chan. When you see them in a e ore level, what a great opportunity. If youve been in there 150, get out. Youre going to want to buy puts the implied volatility, the cost of that, is going to be insignificant compared to what it should be or would be heres a would you rather be long or short tesla. Short tesla right now yeah good would you rather, mel come on would you rather i would be short. Pete thinks its an Energy Company. I care because people have been trying to talk about this as an auto play for at least until this year i agree that the story has broadened out i i think people will come back in and thats a level, but not a level i will buy karen i just check it had borrow, how expensive that would be. Its 1. 1 i , which doesnt chan the map. When you asked why would you pick this one everybody seems to love torks me, thats the answer because everybody seems to love it theres so much hype priced into it that would be why it would make a great target pick. I would be short the last problem i would say, he mentioned religion. That means these guys arent going to sell, so thats i think the difference is here a sticky base coming up rates have been on a tear in the last month after a rough start to the year and the chart master thinks they could be headeded back to where they tarted. Hell explain, plus, call it a box office bummer. Summer sales falling behind that has a number of stocks feeling the heat and later, pete is warming up for earnings season. Hell break it down later this hour much more fast money still ahead. Its so. Quiet. Is it, too quiet . Its awful. Yeah. Feel at home, pretty much wherever you are. Tmobile is americas best unlimited network. What should i watch . Show me sports. Its so fluffy look at that fluffy unicorn hes so fluffy im gonna die your voice is awesome. The x1 voice remote. Xfinity. The future of awesome. Check out shares of disney down today following a disappointing weekend. Viacom getting crushed dropping more than 3 . Movie theatre stocks also taking a hit. Imax down more than 16 in the past month, amc down 10. Regal down 6 . How much worse can it get . I went to a movie last saturday night with my son, it was empty. Ree gal cinemas off the world that theyre getting from the snack bar and et cetera. I dont know how many kids that are in college, what have you, even go anymore to the movies. Im a seller of the group across the board. I mane, i dont know how much this is about this weekend and lets be clear, the stocks are suffering. My wife will not take me to a movie. She will not sit in a movie theatre seat because of you . Because of the movies she goes with me all the time well talk about that after the show bottom line, if you think about the media companies, i think theyre all dimpt stories. Viacom, which has now broken down, when we worked out the sloppyness of the red stone deal, i like viacom and i like it here, but very disappointing to see this execution. Paramount is the jewel within this company thats very undervalued. You have to believe you have to turn this around transformers not getting it done, be but i dont think this is about the box office. Speaking of stories, theres a article in the journal about disney freeform its not just espn in terms of the stocks being a conservative seller as a guy who owns disney and have for a while own it probably mid 90s and have been in there for a couple of years now, theres dividends along the way. That is concerning when you see the numbers, a huge demographic, 2 years up to 34 years old, people not watching, thats a real problem b. 30 revenue shot right there 30 their revenues comes from that so, as a disney shareholder, im a little bit concerned switching gears here literally. Auto retarials are getting crushed today. Oreilly having its worst day ever since going public. After posting weaker than expected sales, taking the whole group down with it theyve struggled to combat sales. Interesting they came to 1. 7 on same store sales in the treat strestreet ae going to give you those details. Didnt give you any details, so that was disconcerting for the sector wea i think whats interesting and again, i go back to jpmorgan and an interesting piece this morning b about oreilly they are starting to take a a step back. You should not this move on oreilly and some of the other players. Are people buying cars these days then theres the Amazon Effect i think you cant discount that enough maybe. 25 i mean, this move today was enormous its still expensive i think they were surprised it seems they were a little surprised on the street. I would be afraid to let it step in the fact weather b has been dpood, which means theres been less issues with the oler cars on the market. Good tire, almost 5 a share pretty stropg and give you a yield, all that. Still ahead, Martin Shkreli about to leave court right now meg is in brooklyn with the latest in the meantime, im melissa lee. Youre watching fast money. Heres what else is coming up on fast pete is is bringing the heat. Pitching us on a retail stock up nearly 100 in the past year hell give us the name plus, as the world braces for higher rates, one group of stocks could be setting up for a perfect contrarian play and heres a hint. Well tell you how to cash in when fast money returns. With a clear advantage. Fidelity, where smarter investors will always be. If only the signs were as obvious when you trade. Fidelitys active trader pro can help you find smarter entry and exit points and can help protect your potential profits. Fidelity where smarter investors will always be. Heres whats come lg up in the second half of the show. Crude taking more than 4 today, snapping its longest winning streak in over five years and Dennis Gartman says it could get a lot worse. Plus, pete here is bringing the heat pitching the one retail stock that hes calling amazon proof will the other traders agree hell deliver. Rich fast pitch, but first, the only thing worse than tesla has been treasuries. The yield has hit twomonth highs. Our next guest says now is the time to buy. Lets go to chart master carter worth in the plaza. So, weve had a lot of trend rallies in the yield chart, but i dont think theres anything new here lets try to pick it apart ive tried to highlight if you can, sort of a couple of intermediate moves, which is what these lines are all about so, those four in particular over the last well, year to date, lets look at the next chart. What those are, theyre quite symmetrical, up 24. 8 basis points up 31. Up 24, up 35 in terms of duration, theyve been about the same thing. Countertrend move, countertrend move, countertrend move in what b i would think down trend in my eye, its another one and nothing has changed. Lets keep going it was 150 moving average, what we know is this that move now for the first time in over a year is leaving us right against a flattening line. By my work, this is whats likely to happen so a rally to a difficult level. Now, just for what its worth. If you take this case im making as the right one, are something to buy we know weve had this head and shoulders bottom we know you know you could say it was a big cup and handle. But either way, this check back, an 8 move in something thats got a beta of. 8, equivalent to a 10 move, leaves you back at a level of support lets look at that heres one way you could draw the lines. The breakout point and the back to it. So youre into support it starts at the top, but its not a plywood board or concrete floor. Its a mattress top. Were sink g well into support starts and support how far . We are exactly at the midpoint and to my eye, i think youre due for some bounce and give back in yields in line with whats going on for quite some time. Then just for fun in terms of utilities, this is the s p 500 versus the s p 500 utilities over the last decade ten years exactly. What we know clearly, is