Transcripts For CNBC Fast Money Halftime Report 20151120 : v

CNBC Fast Money Halftime Report November 20, 2015

Stocks going for their best week of this year led by discretionary utilities and health care and how about nike today. Investors are simply loving that news. Kevin, nike doesnt pay much of a dividend, but they are rocking today. Wonderful thing that happened. We were so concerned after macys and nordstrom blew up thinking its all over. Consumers dead. No low cost energy dividend. Where is it . Now we see the light, the green chutes. As you said, it depends where you are expecting the consumer to go. Not going macys. They continue to buy stuff from nike and ufshdarmour and other retail names. Abercrombie, footlocker, ross stores. Its a story that you cant say about macys. I think when you look at a nike, its important to say, hey, there is a vibrant consumer story here. Not to extrapolate that out and say i want to oent rtx. Thats probably not going to work. It hasnt worked all year. Feeling pretty good about that. Thats one of the considerable longs in our portfolios. Weve been constructive. I think the important part to think about when we talk about the consumer is that its not just about the retail. Its also about how theyre spending in tech and media and on vashgz spz experiences. That said weave seen the consumer be pretty strong this year, and we expect it to be very strong in 2016. The danger with technical calls like that is you have what nike did with the di denned, the buyback, and then the stock goes up 5 . With the exception of a direct retailer, like a dicks, i think are still great buys, and have a lot of the runway ahead of them. What to make of abercrombie . Stocks up near the 20 . Comps down 12 . You say, eh, maybe thats not that great on the surface. It was better than the street had been expecting. Stock rips as a result. This is a company thats had estimates lowered for it for years. At a certain point all of the bad news is priced in, and then some. All were talking about is where sellers are willing to part with it and where buyers come in. You have kind of retraced all the way back up to resistance, which is 25 going back to the First Quarter of this year, and now you have to consider how much of todays burst is because 30 of the float was short going into today. I think you had a lot of shorts who have done very well. His name is down from 70 a share. Probably overstayed their welcome. Today is a little bit of painful. You are seeing them cover. Im not sure that you want to come in with fresh money and buy on top of that. Sdlars 12 million could have come to me in a dividend instead of maybe buying in shares, maybe in quarters ahead. Can you drive the price for further options. You dont have certainty. You dont know with sesht that theyre going to buy. You dont know when theyre going to do it. When i get a check in the mail, thats certain. It breaks yoo you are heart when you look at the stats. They dont it 100 of the time. You declare a dividend, youre long. You have to deliver that cash every quarter. You have one option if you dont want to pay it out. Cut the dividend and lose your job. I like that discipline. How should investors be thinking about pairs when the fed will raise Interest Rates . Are you rethinking your own view of certain stocks as a result of that . Its a great question. Yes, i am. What im looking for, particularly around the index that is i do with ftse russell, like o shares and usa, i now have to know that those names are growing because im fighting now increased yield that comes from just risk free bonds. Sfroo just having a dividend in and of itself is not enough anymore. Are you going to underweight reets and utilities. Already theyve taken a hit. Look at the utilities. You would be amazed. Health care, for example. Consumer. Even industrials. As a result you have been rewarded with less and more cash flow. You want to bach about yields and dividends and where things may be going from here. You buy the insurers because rates are going to go up. If we can get financials to raise dividends in the u. S. , that would be a great catalyst for a seconder that would be structurally underowned by a lot of the constitutional community. Outside of the u. S. I think its going to be incredibly important part of a Global Investors portfolio to have dividend paying stocks on a global basis. We expect yields to stay very low in europe in parts of the emerging world as well. Its a great point, and the big news is, i didnt even know this until recently, i started mining for dividend yield in asia, hong kong, japan, australia. 350 basis points. Michelle. We should let know you know p there are conflicting reports that it is actually over at this point. Were waiting for confirmation. We do know that six americans among those were rescued from the hotel, and were just getting word from the pentagon that 22 department of Defense Military and civilian personnel were there and are now accounted for. No injuries with them. The french are wondering what to what degree all of whats happening in mali is relating to francois hollande, and his aggressive military policy in north africa. There have been french troops in the country of mali since 2013 whether the country invited them in to help them fight the islamic jihadists who are trying to control the north of the country. Getting bulletproof versus for security and limiting coming gregs out front. Sometimes people like to go outside and smoke. Back to you. Michelle, thank you for the update. We will check back with Michelle Caruso cabrera throughout this day once again in paris. Coming up, why kevin oliar where i is saying im out to appear and what he is buying instead. Plus, a super bullish call on intel today. Why one analyst says the stock has a lot further to run even after its recent rally. Later on, the devil is in the details. Youre watching cnbc first in business worldwide. [announcer] when you see this truck, it means another neighbor is going to sleep better tonight because they went to sleep trains ticket to tempurpedic event save up to 300 on the cooling comfort of tempurbreeze. Plus, get up to 36 months interestfree financing. Sleep riskfree with sleep trains money back guarantee. And of course, sameday delivery. Are you next . [announcer] make sleep train your ticket to tempurpedic. Your ticket to a better nights sleep welcome back to the half tame report. We want to call your attention to whats happening now with tesla shares. Theyre down by about 2 . They were down by as much as about 3 1 4 . This headlines of the company is going through a recall of about 90,000 model s sedan models for a possible, again possible defect to the seat belt assembly. It was first called to attention in europe with one single incident. Tesla will recall 90,000 model s sedans to check for a possible seat belt defect and this elizabeth have a material affect on its financial results. Still, we want to call your attention, scott, because the stock did move on those particular headlines. Well bring you more when we know more. Back to you, guys. The stock down 2 . Kevin, does a shark take a bite out of tesla, or does he pass . Pass. Its coming, and it will be extremely painful. Youll need two seat belts. Hoer side of that trade, or no . No. At the right level and for a trade i own the stock occasionally. I dont own it here. If i say activity and i saw an institution getting interested, i would take a shot. Ahead of a rollout, of a new car, whatever. This one, no. Not at this level. He does quickly play into the spot that we had in this theme of growth versus value in the months ahead for the market. I can explain to you why people are trading this stock. It doesnt mean they should, but theyre overpaying for growth they think they have an edge because theyre willing to hold it longer, and so ultimately this valuation will work for them. Historically thats not a good move. Investors should not be playing that game. If you actually look at when gravity is going to hit, i would argue it hit in february of 2014. Starting to get a drumbeat of folks coming on the program and saying that value is coming back in 235i6r. Is that how you would play the market as well . I think Everyone Wants value to be back in favor. Weve been in a world for so long, and were dying for this return to normalcy. Im very hopeful that once the fed starts normalizing policy, that will be a catalyst for people to start really looking at value opportunities. Too much of what is cheap is its cheap for a reason. There are value traps. I think you have to be specific about the industries and the companies that you invest in at this point in the cycle. Talk to me about apple. I was surprised hear that you sold out of it recently. Why . Took it down from 5 weighting down to is zero. Increased microsoft from 2. 5 to 5 . Apple did some things that broke the rules. Increasing the Balance Sheet and trying to repat wrat cash with the bill wron dollar bonds. My biggest concern, though, is im getting the odor of you know how you pass garlic over a great italian dish. Just a hint. Im getting an odor of Consumer Electronics creeping into the story. That bothers me immensely. The story about apple all the time is ecosphere. Software and hardware was a peripheral. This company is about iphones. If you look at the history of the phone business, and im this is a debate that goes on every day. I get a lot of hate mail when we have these conversations. I have to tell you, judge, its really brutal. Ill let you know if the tweets start coming in. The Balance Sheet 200 billion in cash. They have if theres a good versus bad debt, dont i mean, 50 billion in debt i think is the number of what i lookeded up because i knew we were going to have this conversation. Its irrelevant. Rates are so cheap, right . Its not like its debt to make the business run. I get it. The point is when you are a disciplined Financial Investor and you are looking at one right here, you cant tell me one persons debt is different than another. Debt is debt. When you lerchlg a Balance Sheet, i dont care. You take a look at it. Margin pressure. My concern is about growth. At the end of the day, my trade worked. I went in to something that is building its base, increasing its cash flows, agnostic to hardware, which is microsoft, office 365 is kicking it. All the companies i own in the private sector are now using microsoft when they hated it two years ago. I was going, to you asked me two years ago if we would be having this conversation now. I tell you youre crazy. Selling out of appear to wet into microsoft and telling a fundamental story in microsoft to believe in, but the tide seems to have turned under to kevin ace point, the value stock between these two is still apple. Apple it a. 8 peg, price to earnings growth. Its 2. 2 times sales. Microsoft is four and a half times sales, and its a peg of two and change. Which one is cheaper . However, the market is voting. The market is saying, kevin is right. Za think the point of not being tied to the phone cycle and being involved in utterly different areas of the market, like cloud, that is why people want to own microsoft. I would be long here in microsoft as well. Intel shares are higher after the stock gets upgraded over at somewhere np securities. The Company Raised its outlook during our program yesterday. Alex is the analyst making todays call. He is with us live once again. Welcome back. Alex, good to see you. Hi, scott. Would you have made this call today had intel not raised its good nightedance yesterday . We would have, scott, because it comes out of trade show checks that weve made in recent weeks as well as other industry investorings. Thats what were excited about for intel. Its about the cloud driving the company, driving better growth out in 2016. Its doing that because, a, intel is executing, and, b, because the competition in our based servers is not happening, and, c, the demand drivers are all there right now. Thats a big shift in our thinking recently, and we think thats a reason to buy the stock. Maybe shift is the appropriate word because you are told investors back in march to sell the stock so are you really telling me that in seven months or so that the fundamental story here has changed . Yeah. That was a good call back in march. Now we have the runway ahead of us where cloud is going to be the majority of Intel Data Center revenues next year. We think pcs are likely troughing here, experiencing the worst of their headwinds, and now windows 10 and sky lyght from intel will make it a little bit better going forward. Intel has strategies in terms of reduced cap x to give that gross margin leverage even in a tough pc environment. Lets switch gears before i let you run to go pro. I believe youre still the biggest bull on the street. You still have 90 price target on that. Thats right. We do, scott. There vsh developments here recently talking about Virtual Reality on youtube making its way into normalcy and go pro will be a key enabler of that. Again, our optimism, that 90 price target isnt just about the hardware for the story. Births the things the company can do in the cloud with media and as a unique differentiated player in that category. Thats an awful lot, though, of faith in something that is not viewed as their core business, is it not . Thats a fair point. It is a faith and innovation, and a young energized Management Team that absolutely gets it when it comes to social media and new media. Were making that bet here, and we dont think things have changed that fundamentally from where we were a year ago when the stock was knocking on the door of that price target. Im hearing im not even thinking im changing the price target of 09, or ready to make a move on the stock, is that right . Thats not in the psyche of jnp securities right now. Thats correct. Well talk to you soon. I appreciate you coming on today. Thank you, scott. What do you make of go pro . I like his call on intel. I think gopro that was 26, the ipo, right . Were under water here. The whole story is forget were a camera and its pure Consumer Electronics thats proprietary. We have a social media platform that you could weve got cats jumping off roofs. Weve got dogs Walking Around with camera on their backs. This is really going to be worth something. Apparently not. Thats the problem here. By the way, i love the guy that started the company. He is a fellow shark. I think he is a fantastic entrepreneur. Nick woodman. Yeah, nick is terrific. He is a good guy, but is he a smart guy too. Because he brought this thing out. Apparently if you stayed long, you got killed. Now he has to prove that his original vision of taking the content and making it valuable somehow and thats his challenge. The camera, the price of that camera is going to keep going down and down and down and the guy is knocking it off in china. Its just the camera. I got a couple of them on my phones that are just as good, and so i dont know. Thats the question. I dont want to glaze over intel. Mr. Oleary likes the call. Same reasons that kevin likes microsoft really, and that is because intel is all about the cloud. They talked a little bit about yesterday on the call about pcs, but they said, hey, if pcs go down by another 10 , sales, that is, this is still going to be a great play. One of the things were cautious about, i know that weve talked a little bit about beforehand was valuations in the sector, and we were looking to make sure that youre assigning the right multiple for the growth that you are getting off of these different industries. People have gotten very enthusiastic about social media. I would say thats a place where weve seen a number of crowded trades bla out. Sometimes well. Sometimes less well. We need to see that the social media and new tech can follow through on the growth promise that is are embedded in multiples. Coming up, nimble storage falling off a cliff. The reason for the 50 drop in how you should strayed treyed it is just ahead. Kate moore has been Underweight Energy all year long. Find out if she can dip her toes back in the oil patch yet. 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Windows. And chalkboards. Now thats what i call clean. Too clean . Sparkle. Because its a messy world out there. Earnings were that bad . Snoo they were that bad. And the guidance was that bad. I mean, top line missed. Bottom line missed. Thats enough to drive you anywhere from 10 to 20 down. Then you lower guidance, throw in another 10 on that. Then, judge, compression on the margins. I mean, thats the quad that they just pulled on this one. Dp you do all four things wrong, youll see a big drop. I really dont understand why everyone thinks this is such a great business to be in. When you look at what intel is able to do, theres no limitation on how much storage is possible, so its worse than a commodity. Its commodity thats losing value all the time. We keep storing more and more data for less money. Why would anyone want to invest into this . We need to look at other companies in the space. Pure storage is getting beaten up. Box is another name thats pretty close to its 52week low. Its just not a great business when all of the technological prostz progress hfd you is about making your product cheaper and more commoditized. It is graeft, and thats whats happening here. The huge buzz last year about cyber skrurt and Software Cyber stocks took the keys up into the hundreds, and then one day some institutions said, you know, i think this is a moderatety. I think there will be a lot of Companies Offering services at

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