Transcripts For CNBC Fast Money Halftime Report 20151218 : v

CNBC Fast Money Halftime Report December 18, 2015

Just ahead. We do begin with the markets. Oil prices have moved higher at this hour. The disney downgrade weighing on the dow. Lots of folks wondering whats in store for your money now following this weeks fed hike. Josh brown, what is going on over the last couple of days. I think accident scott, that people are pulling their money out of the stock market to buy tickets to star wars. Its as much as 200 online. We have to factor that in. Since the feds announcement. The s p financials are down 3. 5 since the fed decision. Bonds are up. Bng, which is the total Bond Market Index Fund from van garde. Its actually up. 4 since the feds decision. Everybody says, hey, theyre going to be the best sector to be in. When the fed is in a rate hike cycle, whats going on . For having fixed income instruments is still there. However, i think it will be shortlived. I think this is just a blip, and that well see a shift into equities. In terms of the market today, you have the expiration. Thats a major issue. You also have people taking off. Theyre leaving for the rest of the year. So many people i have spoken to and theyre derisking. Theyre chicking out and have one foot out the door already. Yes, yes. Mike, you have been thinking about this notion of going from bonds to stocks as well. You did have one of the biggest out flows from bond funds. I guess people flinching because of this Federal Reserve move ahead of time in the prior week. Now, you havent necessarily seen that go directly into equity funds. Whats interesting, though, is all the yield sectors, all of these bond proxies like utilities and reits and a high dividend yielding stock has had a bit lat four days. Kind of blurring the lines a little bit. Bonds will go straight down, and yet, somehow these yield oriented stocks are i think whats interesting is the general setup in the stock market, the s p 500 yields almost exactly the same as a tenyear treasury right now. Historically thats been a pretty good time. Historically in recent history its been a good time to bet on a rebound on the equity side. Everybody was spokesed on the word gradual. I think that was a mistake. I think what janet yellin here is theyre playing both sides against the middle. Theyre leaving some very dovish language in there that will make it seem like they had this plan if they have to go dovish, but theyve got those Economic Projections at a hawkish four Interest Rate hikes for neck year. If they get tough with the markets, the markets cant say, well, you didnt tell us so, and i think the markets are focussing on that today. I think thats just a reflection of whats going on in europe and the rest of the world where, you know, still at 2. 2. The tenyear treasury is the best game in town. Oil is going up today, and the stock market is down 250 almost. 225. At the same time same day. The open interest, in other words, all these contracts out there can have a very magnetic affect, and this time, unfortunately, the magnet has been pulling them to the down side. I would say, unfortunately, i think we could continue to continue that into the end of the year, but then i think we could see that significant bounce that you might have mentioned. Still maybe still about 20 on the year in the s p. The stocks that are doing anything is so small. Its that fang group, and can you throw in a couple of baskets of other things. Otherwise, the breadth of the market is ugly. History says that ultimately the average will succumb to big names. Well get hit. It depends on the time frame. If you are a shortterm trader, maybe. If im a true investor and looking to create value over time, like the Great Investors do, im going to look at the benefits of having stocks down 20 of average. Ultimately what emerging markets cares the most about is not the 25 bix. Its what the expectations of hikes will be and what that means to the dollar. The dollar has been the biggest headwind for emerging markets. The market pricing, what, two hikes next year. They are saying four hikes. To me that means that theres potentially more up side to the dollar. Even though frens, you mention energy the dollar is down today. Theres also kind of a negative relationship that comes into play. Ultimately for us the big question is the dollar rally done. To us we think maybe threefourths of the way done. Not quite there. I hear a lot more people, especially in the last few days. Everybody can opine on this one. The market kind of gets ahead of it. My question to you would be has a fed chair ever effectively said were going to get a heads up to the emernling markets before we do it . Isnt that what you basically said . Yeah. She actually mentioned emerging markets in her phrase. I was, like she said actually good things about it, which are tremendous. About time somebody has given my people some respect. It usually doesnt happen. We think it is. There is no leading indicators that tell us that theres a liftoff. From that perspective, its very hard to get excited at the asset class level on emerging markets. Having said that, valuations are close to actually august lows. For us were going to be in the asset class regardless. The question of where within emerging markets were finding thats exactly where i want to go. The biggest overweight is russia, and that makes me nervous. Is that the best thing can you find in the emerging markets . Well, listen, russia wra is up somewhere around 7 for the year. Its flat. It actually had been a fairly good investment. Thats exactly what you are seeing in russia. On the dollar. Its actually starting to perform well. All you need is normalization. You wont need growth when you have these type of valuations. On ner places like india, mexico, you need growth to justify the value wags. Russia wra is one of those places that usually goes back more than they used to be. Let me ask you one last question. The effort by the chinese which is so overt, its going continue to go too as the devaluation of the currency. The impact of that continued move, and a continued move is what its going to be, is going to have on the emerging markets. Its a great question, and the way that we look at it, the more danger there is around that, the more danger actually that is presented in the commodity countries, right . The brazils, the chiles. Not chinese stocks themselves. If you look at the chinese stocks, they are basically banks on industrial companies. Its better for the fed its one of it seems contradictory, but the more theyre around that is correct the more overweight we are chinese equities within em, and its actually wrout perform in that environment. Its good to see you as always. Happy, healthy new year. See any 2016. All right. Look forward to that. Andreas, thanks as well. Great weekend. Back to september 1st for stocks that look as ugly as these are have. Bpig isnt buying it. We debate the sell call on disney. It is our call of the day. Pharma ceo, Martin Shkreli is home after posting bail. Meg terrell joining us with the latest developments from outside his apartment. Next. Youre watching cnbc first in business worldwide. Santa has a magic snow globe for every family. And this year, look at what he put in our driveway. The lexus december to remember sales event is here. Lease the 2016 es350 for 349 a month for 36 months and well make your first months payment. See your lexus dealer. I finally did it ew, you did it all right. Let sparkle paper towels clean it up. Do the math and youll see sparkle costs less. Plus its perfect for cleaning spills. Desktops. Windows. And chalkboards. Now thats what i call clean. Too clean . Sparkle. Because its a messy world out there. Mr. Khrkreli posting bail. Meg terrell live outside that building. Meg where are. Hi, scott. The latest is that bloomberg and wall street journal are citing sources saying that shkreli is close to stepping down as a ceo of tu aring pharmaceutical. Im also hearing there is tremendous pressure from investors for him to do so. We have reached out to shkreli as well. We have not yet heard back from them, and we will update you with any news. Yesterday the company putting out a statement saying that legal matters concerning the founder and ceo Martin Shkreli are bernl and are no bearing on Turing Pharmaceuticals. Just to recap, he was arrested here at home in manhattan yesterday by the fbi. He is charged with seven counts, including securities fraud. They called it eye ponzilike scheme. It involves complex accounting matters that the u. S. Attorneys office for the Eastern District of new york and the s. E. C. Failed to understand. Saying that his accounting was just too complicated for the s. E. C. Back to you. Thanks so much. Meg terrell with the latest outside martin hkrelis Apartment Building in manhattan. We are, as p know, in selloff mode. Want to take to you the dow heat map. Two main culprits, disney and boeing. Both stocks getting downgraded. The boeing downgrade certainly hurting that company and hurting the dow. Those two disney and boeing, the worst performers within the Dow Jones Industrial average. There is Goldman Sachs at the bottom. The 0 price target. He explained why he made that ca call. Global box office. Were not taking the negative view to star wars. This is all about cable networks, which is 45 of disneys operating income. Its weighing on the stock. A bit of a party pooper. Star wars comes out, down grades the stock at 10 00 this morning. Things are neither here nor there. He didnt get a private screening. I think disney is a quality company. We talk to a lot of people and funds that own it. Some sfundz short it. The ones that own it arent ignorant about the espn issues. Theyre just making the bet that they can stem the cord cutting so to speak. I think its up in the air. Right now its going to be a market stock. If you are positive going forward, im staying on the sideline at this point because there are too many issues where are star wars, however, is not one of them. 25 over the last 12 months, even with the recent its up 15 yeartodate. To some extent, but its not a oneday event, star wars. Theyre talking about having a new movie coming out every 18 months for the next decade. You are buy or sell disney because of star wars opening witness. Were playing a different game than the one in the real word. There are theme parks. Theyre putting up metal detection theme parks. If you get, god forbid, an incident at one of the theme parks, i know some of the people are thinking about this, then traffic goes down. Heres the issue. What is more priced into the stock right now . Weve known this. Thats what im saying. Downgraded the stock in march of 2015 no to neutral from a buy. He already made the espn i dont agree with the call. I dont agree with the call. The stock trades at Something Like 19 times the four to 12 months earnings. With a stock like this with the growth rate it has, the peg ratio is 1. 46. Thats really attractive for a company of this quality and what josh was saying about the movies coming out is exactly right. Everybody knows that espn is an albatross right now. That thing can only get better, frankly. This valuation is terrific. I want to point out the stock play. For them to have a direct relationship. The cord cutting goes so far. Theres a lot of it that says that people once break apart these packages that you get from cable, that espn is one of the losers there. Then the direct relationship that they have where people are subscribing directly, i dont think thats properly accounted for. I dont think its built in to the model yet. I bought it last week when it fell below 108. Got down to the 50day moving average. Rallied up to 113 this week. I banged out a ton of calls. Theyre all expiring today. Im going to get right back into this same position and do it over and over just rinse and repeat. I think this thing is just a money machine. Give me more, guys, on why you think the market is doing what its doing today, and the fact that the sectors within the market are leading the charts to the down side. That being utilities. You know, yields are down. They were the best performing sector too. Bonds would basically hold where they are, but bonds are counter intuitive to whats happening with them. Its a big sellingoff, and they were a leading group theyre expensive. Two really positive days. Tuesday, wednesday. We hit thurts. The s p is flat on the week. Its flat on the week. Frankly going into a week first rate hike in nine and a half years, i think thats actually a win. When you look at Something Like boeing today or disney, you know, boeing in particular off 3 on this downgrade. Its still above 140. If it gets cheaper, im going to bay more of that. Its a Terrific Company and a good opportunity. Gold is making a move higher today. Is the risk off trade back in vogue . Plus, he is one of the top ten Financial Advisors in this country. According to barrons. He says the market is not in a good place. Rick worries for the new year are just ahead. A programming note as well, the president holding a News Conference today, 150 or so. How else do you think he gets around so fast . Take the reins this holiday and get the mercedesbenz youve always wanted during the winter event. Hurry, offers end january 4th i built my business with passion. But i keep it growing by making every dollar count. Thats why i have the spark cash card from capital one. I earn unlimited 2 cash back on everything i buy for my studio. And that unlimited 2 cash back from spark means thousands of dollars each year going back into my business. Thats huge for my bottom line. Whats in your wallet . Well, fast money halftime report. Im courtney reagan. I just got an update from first data. This is a company that has merchants 1. 3 million merchants. Theyre giving us an update on total Holiday Spending so far this season. A strong increase of more than 11 for those sales. General misdemeanor retailers, like big box and department stores, seeing sales growth of more than 4 . The losers, however, include sporting goods, hobby, book and music sales down 3 . Clothing accessories, electronics, and appliance sales down more than 1. 5 . Scott, back to you. Okay. Courtney, thank you so much. The retail index selling off by 1. 5 . Perhaps adding to some of the pain that weve been seeing throughout the session. Also seeing gold prices move higher after todays after closing yesterdays session at the lowest level since 2010. Jackie deangeles at the nymex. Good afternoon to you, scott. Thats exactly right. Its about 1 move. 17 pop for gold prices. They did have the worst daily loss. Yesterday since march. Jim, on yesterdays futures now show, you told me you wanted buy gold. Are you sticking with that trade . That trade is objective, and it made me more the stock market was holding in after the rate hike. The stock market is 15 handles lower. The tightening cycle may have just changed to a tightening. What is ellevel like for gold . Look at the costs here. 1,100. That was in july. A lot of volume. A lot of change on gold. Its above 1,100. December 3 reasonable doubted was at a low. Be careful. Okay. Thanks. Scott. Back with a live show. Futures now cnbc. Com. The futures no folks, see you then. Coming up, investing with acronyms. One says to forget the socalled fang stocks and focus on bangels. Well debate what some are calling the new internet darlings of 2016, and speaking of fangs, why their performance as one of barrons top 100 Financial Advisors very worried. Im here at the Td Ameritrade trader offices. Ahh. Steve, other than making me move stuff, what are you working on . Let me show you. Okay. Our thinkorswim Trading Platform aggregates all the options data you need in one place that lets you visualize that information for any options series. Okay, cool. Hang on a second. You can even see the anticipated range of a stock expecting earnings. Impressive. Whats up, tim . For all the confidence you need. Td ameritrade. You got this. Im sue herrera. Following the house the senate has passed a 1. 1 trillion spending bill that will keep the deposit running until september of next year. It also lifts the u. S. Crude oil export ban. It now goes to president obama for his expected signature. The Democratic Party has cut off senator Bernie Sanders president ial campaigns access to its voter list. The action follows a breach of data compiled by Hillary Clintons president ial campaign. Sanders Campaign Says its in communication with the dnc regarding the breach and is trying to resolve the matter. Fiat chrysler recalling their 356,000 Jeep Cherokee suvs worldwide. To fix a water leak that could cause an electrical short in the power tailgate. The recall covers the 2015 and 2016 models. A Wisconsin Company is gearing up bigtime for the newest star wars release. The electronic theater control is shutting down for the day as the ceo treats all 800 of its employees with a ticket to see the force awakens. It is actually renting 19 bugses and ten screens at a local multiplex for the view. Thats the cnbc news update this hour. Scottie, back to you. Joimgs to make sense of the move of the markets and where stocks could go from here is the cio of hightower treasury partners, number six on barrons list of the top 100 Financial Advisors in this country. Welcome back. The fed hikes rshgs im one of your clients. Rich, what do i do now . What do you tell me . First of all, we have a very ugly tape, so if you look at the s p 500, the stop ten names are up 19 . You have a high yield market thats lempled. Kov nabtlike debt, and have you an Energy Sector thats starting to implode. Finally, emerging markets as i have been talking about repeatedly, theres 3. 8 trillion worth of u. S. Dollar denominated debt that they have to repay with weakened currency wrs wrshz. We want to actually were raising our hedge funds this year as we are getting equity participation with some protection. We want to maintain shorter durations in our fixed income portfolios. On the equity side, keep in mind that growth is widely outperformed the value stock. Is that changing . Youre basically making a bet for oil and pharma. Jeffrey gundlach says it could be the worst in the market. I want to r

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