The nfl great and super bowl star joining us to talk the big game and a lot more. We begin with the markets volatile again today. Heres how things look at this hour. The s p and nasdaq are still investors and clearly remain nervous about the state of the Global Economy which you can see reflected in treasury yields. The 10 year yield hit a one year low today. It is moving again all over the map for that matter but it is now positive and shooting higher by some 6 . So whether or not stocks are done correcting is anyones guess of course but at least three of wall streets wisest think equities look pretty good here. Heres larry fink, investing legend bill miller and goldmans Lloyd Blankfine earlier on squawk. This is a buying opportunity. Down as it goes down. I dont know how to pick a bottom and i dont think anyone does. But i do believe this represents value today. Equity markets are property priced now. You cant tell how low the market is going to go. I think its low enough now. As i said earlier if you got the s p 500, when it yield mrs. Than the 10 year treasury, unless the world is coming apart, thats sort of a no brainer. I think we muddle through. I think some of this is an overreaction to the overreaction of assets being so swollen. And now its kind of a reversion i think the most likely case that is that we kind of muddle through and this adjustment and equity prices make sense to me bond market says i dont know about that. Maybe Something Else is up. Do you agree with what toez gentlemen said . Its hard to argue with those three gentlemen but we have a different view. We think theres four factors agitating the markets now. Number one, we have global Central Banks taking divergent paths. Number two, were looking for price discovery. Number three, a large amount of dollar denominated debt in the emerging market space and finally the high yield market is gapping out and prices are dropping and its causing great stress throughout the Investment Grade market right now. You dont think this is a buying opportunity. Were not buying right now. Pete, are you . Are those guys right or wrong . Theyre right but theyre right only because of the fact that none of them are physically calling a bottom to this either. Theyre getting more comfortable and talk about valuations and lloyd himself just talked about redoing and refiguring out the valuation level of where we are right now but until we stop seeing oil go down each and every day and obviously today were up 6 , we were at 34. Under 30. Here we are back around 31 but when we stop seeing some of that, thats why every day were talking about the Oil Volatility index. The volatility index itself. These are very important me tricks because theyre giving you a sentiment gauge of whats going on right now out there not just from the Three Wise Men but from whats going on in terms of dollars right now. Joe puts out a comment a few moments agatha says now theres a 40 chance of recession. Some think that stocks are a value here. Others look at the bond mark and say the economy is in deep trouble and theres no way the fed can move. Some are saying that yes we can. Bill dudly today says pretty dovish comments. What gives. We began with hope and data this week was going to lean against the pessimism in the market. I heard you literally walk down the stairs today as the ism Services Number hit. I saw you look up at the big screen we have in the newsroom and say thats not good. This is not good was my exact words. Thats right. The Service Sector was the last bull work and you can say thats a pun against the bearish tie that was out there. The idea that the Service Sector would hold up against manufacturing weakness and overseas growth and the other problems in the economy. It weakened for the Third Straight month. You could see the reaction. You had to see what happened. The dollar got crushed against the euro. Very hard to find, i guess you call it a el capitan chart. If you think about a extreme cliff. Its the worst day for the dollar index in three months. There it is right there. You dont want to be scaling that unless of course you are long the euro in this regard or if you look at the ten year it did balance off the low yields we had scott but these are ones that speak of weakness. You guys in the back are terrific in the economy. 185 in the 10 year. What are investors supposed to do with this . You have three of the perceived brightest minds out there as it pertains to investment, the economy, et cetera, saying think its a good value here. Equities look good. I think sentiment is overdoing it to the down side. He points out things about the economy, more cautious, what do you do . Im bullish here and i think the Three Wise Men are right. The only thing that we have to fear here is fear itself and i dont mean to be trite in saying that. Theres a psychological effect here that as the markets go down investors get nervous and sell more and that piles on. It also has an effect and this may be where the nonmanufacturing index is showing up in corporate ceo suites and boards of directors that people look at these declining stock prices and they say maybe this isnt a great time to invest in a new factory or hire new people. Thats what youre seeing here. Hopefully that can come to an end. If you look at oil and the stock market its been bouncing around around a stable low level here. It hasnt been setting new lows and if we can hang on to that level maybe that fear subsides in the markets and Corporate America and we start to see bullish intentions come back. So you have your lowest ever exposure to europe right now at 5 of your assets. Are you concerns about the banks . Are there more people raising the issues about European Banks . Should we be more concerned than we currently are . No, were not concerned about the banks but about having to be right twice on currency and on the fundamental investments. Our exposure is the lowest its been in 20 years for us. The fed is not going anywhere in march are they . No, theyre not. But what is interesting to me. Why did he come out yesterday and says we could still. Esther george is a known hawk. I believe she ranked second on our hawk list. Voting member. She is the hawkiest on the year. Not the most hawkish on the fed but what i found today and what i found earlier this week is that you can decide what you think the fed is going to do and i dont think its hard to think that the fed is not going to do very much. The market wants to hear it. You saw a rally in the futures this morning when dudly came out and said look financial conditions are tighter. But heres what im noticing and heres what makes me worry. We have a report this morning and dovish comments from dudly. That was all overwhelmed by what happened at 10 00 by the ism services. The market is not looking at jobs or listening to dovish comments from the fed. Were going to have to follow that. So what is he looking at then . Well, the massive turn around judge, the risk on trade in. Russia. In brazil and in turkey. These are three markets that, you know, if you want volatility you got it in spades in those three markets and yet take a look at them now. Many of these were higher already before crude oil turned but as crude oil turned, you got russia up 4 . Brazil up 4 and turkey up 4 . So those are huge moves even though these arent the same robust markets this is a sign that people are looking for a place to go with risk capital and they went into the three risky markets and they were awarded almost immediately. What is a make of what were watching in crude oil which is literally on the screen now. What was a near 7 move to the upside . What do you do with that . I think you do a little bit of what joe has done in this halftime portfolio challenge. That is on significant dips like this morning you buy some of those stocks. I miss doing that today. Wish i did because these turns were pretty dramatic. So if its not just those efts that i spoke of. If you bought some of those on that dip thats risk on steroids right there but you can make a very nice return. Is anybody buying stocks today or no . I came out with a solid bullish. The only reason im not buying is because im fully invested. You to look at this mornings action and wonder what was going on. I dont think its just the ism nonmanufacturing survey although that was awful but for the market to swing off that much and now come back it tells me that maybe theres a distressed player out there that got taken out involuntarily. You get augmented by the oil report this morning. So you were down and then went another leg down on that but all the action in the ten year and the action in the dollar were all linked to the Services Sector. You growing more concerned yourself about where were going . I am. I just follow the data here. Guys that followed stocks got bearish earlier here and the Economic Data was holding up and so im a little late to the wake i guess is the best way to put it. I was going to say late to the party but the Services Sector was something its still growing. Its not down below. 53. 5. But what you need is strength and we had our rapid update today scott which is the tracking for the First Quarter and the first numbers we got and it was based on reasonably strong auto Sales Numbers yesterday but look at the number. I was looking for a 2 plus handle on that q1 tracking. Now our estimate is just 1. 7 and Morgan Stanley was right to be bearish in the fourth quarter. Its just at 0. 8 . Steve, i appreciate you joining us. Thanks. Coming up its the trade that just wont cooperate. I think these financials are too cheap. I think they go higher. Well, the banks are dropping again today. Find out if our experts are are sticking with them now. Plus energy is under pressure. S p slashes debt ratings on ten big oil companies. The analyst that made those cuts joins us next. And our guest host, rich saperstein brought along his top value pick. Stick around for the stocks and the reason why he says it is a buy today. Youre watching cnbc first in business worldwide. Ive been called a control freak. I like to think of myself as more of a control. Enthusiast. Mmm, a perfect 177degrees. And thats why this road warrior rents from national. I can bypass the counter and go straight to my car. And i dont have to talk to any humans, unless i want to. And i dont. And national lets me choose any car in the aisle. Control. Its so, whats the word . Sexy. Go national. Go like a pro. Sometimes they just drop in. Always obvious. Cme group can help you navigate risks and capture opportunities. We enable you to reach Global Markets and drive forward with broader possibilities. Cme group how the world advances. S p cutting the Credit Ratings of ten Big Oil Company with ten names downgraded to junk. The man that made the call is oil and gas Team Director at s p and joins us now from new york. Ben, welcome to the program. Nice to talk to you today. Thanks. Is this just the first step of what could be further downgrades . Well, certainly this is the Investment Grade piece of it. We lowered our price stack in mid january. We said we would be looking at all the oil and Gas Companies that we cover. So these are the oil and gas, the Investment Grade oil and gas rating action. You have said in your note that the action that the Company Versus taken thus far whether its cutting cap ex and focussing on efficiencies in your word for the most part are insufficient to stem the meaningful deterioration expected in credit measures over the next few years. What else then can these companies do . Companies do have a couple of other options. They could be selling assets and using proceeds to either Fund Spending or reduce debt. Certainly they could seek out other sources of capital. But it is very difficult for most companies to make money at 40 oil. So you know, i think it is a tough situation. Oil has been coming down for sometime. Why was the time right now to lower the ratings and not earlier . Well, we certainly didnt want to jump the gun. In our view it is we have some confidence that oil is going to be low for sometime. Given that the supply overhang. So this is our second price cut in terms of our price deck in the last six months. So i feel like we have taken a measured approach to it. Chevron tops your list of downgrades today and certainly there is much talk about the future of dividends whether its chevron exxon and are they at the risk of chevron specifically and the others . They have a sizable dividend and to fund Capital Spending and a dividend of that size. So any company that has substantial reinvestment requirements and also a large dividend, its difficult to maintain all of that without increasing debt. Are you suggesting then because im not sure youre specifically answering my question. Do you think that chevron for example and exxon or one of the two or both will cut their dividends . I cant speculate. All i would say is that its difficult to do all the things that both companies would like and need to do without increasing debt. How much do you think we would see the level of default in the energy space rise as a result of just the on going situation . Well, we have already seen a number of defaults at the lower end of the rating scale. We have a large number of our ratings, deeply high yield and i do think thats an indication that were going to see a lot more defaults in the coming months. Ben i appreciate you coming on today. My pleasure. Thanks. Ben with s p. What about not only these rating cuts but the idea that dividends could be cut of some of these companies . So, unlike 2008 where the banks are under massive pressure. We see a lot of Financial Flexibility in the oil sector. And we have to preserve the bond holders. The concern is are they going to cut these dividends. Because all of them seem to want to defend it so much. Do you think they are . Some of them. Maybe not exxon or chevron, i look at conoco with negative cash flows though and theyre all toidoing the same thing to defend their dividend now. They can say whatever they want but the market is going to dictate to them what they need to do and in his estimation they cant continue doing what theyre doing without cutting the dividend. And i would say specifically if this continues, if oil remains down at these levels, the problem scott then becomes we have already cut the capex and we have suspended our repurchase like exxon did yesterday then what . What are the other levers they can pull . Sooner or later the dividends would have to be something that would be in jeopardy because if they want to be able to be in a position to make the moves for the companies that scott was trying to pull out of you just now theyll have to find that. We are buyers of energy debt. All the integrated oils whether its royal dutch, bp, exxon, chevron, you can two down to tier two, oxy and conoco. Mostly Investment Grade. Youre not talking about high yield junk are you . Wouldnt go down to tier 3. Wouldnt go down there now but i would stick with the tier one and tier twos. Push comes to shove theyre going to cut Dividends Fund major project spending and dividends next year. And most of us think it will. And one of those two is going to have to give. I was going to say that. Hes answering the question. He doesnt want to say it on television but the words are pretty clear though. So can you buy exxon or chevron today doc knowing that the dividends are at risk . What else do you get out of the bargain . A agree with pete that those are two that i would be comfortable buying. You would . Yes. Now conoco different story. A number of them different story. But also to what rick said about that moment, you take a look at exactly that Kinder Morgan moment when kmi did say okay no mass. We understand. We have got to cut this and they did and where did the stock go . Straight up. I mean not straight up like 50 higher. But instead of being flushed it went up and when you see that kind of action that tells you all you need to know. Coming up, the financials cant catch a break dropping again today along with Interest Rates. Are our experts holding out hope for a rebound any time soon or are they throwing in the towel yet . Well get an update next. The greatest of all time, nfl hall of famer jerry rice joins us ahead of the big match up between the panthers and the broncos. To thrive in an everchanging environment, Companies Must adapt. But one thing should remain constant a financial relationship with someone that understands and cares about your business. Pnc corporate and Institutional Banking offers strategies tailored to your companys needs. Know that our dedicated teams of local experts offer insight to help you achieve your business objectives. See how working with pnc can help your company grow at pnc. Com ideas [martha and mildred are good to. Go. Heres your invoice, ladies. A few stops later, and it looks like big ollie is on the mend. It might not seem that glamorous having an old pickup truck for an office. Or filling your days looking down the south end of a heifer, but. I wouldnt have it any other way. Look at that, i had my best month ever. And earned a shiny new office upgrade. I run on quickbooks. Thats how i own it. Its time now for a trade update. Our desk has been bullish on the banks for quite sometime. I think if you had to pick one area right now id go to the financials. Probably has the most potential upside as the economy gets better. In the long run, the banks are great investment right now. To me financials would be one of the first places i would put my money. I think that the two cheapest airs are financials and energy. My question pete is lets talk time horizons here. Three years out. Respectable time horizon. Do you buy the banks . Yes