Thats a built in part of how we invest for clients. Youll never see us top ticking whatever did the best over the last few weeks or few months. Youre more likely to see us adding to what hasnt been working. You would be buying health care stocks, financials, discretionary, tech . Yeah. Look, the s p is up 6. 5 this week given all the issues were dealing with. Just unimaginable. Thats the state of play. 15 of the last 22 days positive. Again also unthinkable. But quality is probably going to continue to work this year so probably more toward pharma and devices. Joe says go winners, why. I tend to look at things in a quarterly basis. Where are you going to start and where are you going to end up . And beginning obviously was not very good. January was one of the worst months in a hundred years but we ended up okay. When i look at the Second Quarter i think were going to start okay. You play defense. You go Telecom Utility staples. Stay with what is working and the value type of names. The emerging markets are getting a lift on the lower dollar. I think we end the quarter on the defensive. I dont do you think well start out well if we get earnings i think in the guidance youll come around to the turn in earnings and thats going to keep that going. Some of the guidance looking forward but what will be difficult is the brexit and the conversation surrounding what the Federal Reserve should do. Pete says be switzerland, go both. It doesnt change for me scott. Nothing ever changes about how i trade. I look for growth. I look for value. I look for yields and all the different things. Kevin oleary was on here yesterday talking about the same type of names because i want the fundament fundamental story to be there and i dont want it to be a yield or buy back strategy out of the company thats financially engineered. I want to see a consistency for decades and yields and so forth. That doesnt mean that im not occasionally going to have yesterday i bought ak steel. This is a dash for trash kind of names. What started to rachet it up . Take a look at u. S. Steel and the run that had. Look at gold and silver. Theres places in the market we have seen that dash and incredible run. Im not going to chase those but if something comes up on my radar, im going to buy a long. Stay with whats working or switch it up . Its a combination of both im going to wait and maybe ill nibble. Earnings season is coming. Theres stocks that will get cheap again but im not getting aggressive. How about the names within the dow . The best dow components over the quarter. Verizon up 17 . Caterpillar up 13 . So you get the gist here, maybe defensive names in a telco but cat, walmart, staple, 3m, industrial. The interesting thing is the retail names came back. A lot of the Consumer Discretionary names came back. The question is is that sustainable over the quarters. In the near term it is. So those are the names i would look at. American express one of the worst performers in the dow. Down 13. Yes since mid february the jamie dimon bottom as we have been calling it on this show. Do we think that josh those stocks are those the ones that youre suggesting that you should Start Playing now as the quote, unquote, laggerts . We have financial exposure but i dont think theres anything to say about the type of year that any companies with wall street exposure, Capital Markets exposure are going to have. Theyre laying people off and seeing profits decline. Pretty much across the board. Theres no m a this year. No ipos this year. Literally none and what you end up with is stocks that sell at a big discount to the market but deservedly so and the investor class has come to realize these companies are basically highly regulated utilities at this point. Id much rather be in a ge shedding its financial assets. They asked for permission to shed the title of being financially important. They dont believe they are anymore and thats a name breaking out. You think it can go to 40. Its all happening. The stock is now leading its 07 highs in the dust and this is an underloved, undertalked about name. Theyre transitioning from the types of businesses they said they would and theyre getting much more toward health care, doubling down on aerospace and Power Systems and this is the type of stock that you want to own if the Dollar Strength continues to moderate. I wonder what you make of the goldman call today. No rate hikes in the first half of the year but three in the second half we think the run way, you think the run way has some length to it here but then, im not sure when you get later on into the year. You have a contentious president ial election coming up. You have a significant conversation once you get into the summer regarding the Global Economy itself. It gets a free pass because of all the easy Monetary Policy but youre going to get some traction and growth Going Forward whether its in europe or whether it is in the emerging markets. Does have the fed have the guts to go after it and do this as you get past september into the election . It would have to be after the elections and once you see that. What are you going to have . Three hikes between november and the end of the year . I dont agree with the three. If you want to go after the thesis of buying banks you do it now. You dont buy it when you think theyll be doing it do you like the miners . For trade and when it finally flipped and we saw the huge run in oil and copper and gold thats a triple header. 30 shorts too. So people that stayed short were total pigs. I think these are true trades in the marketplace but these names are leveraged and when you look at where the commodities are now that will change rapidly. I dont think anyone should make the mistake that the key indicators are going to be any different in the Second Quarter and thats a problem where is the dollar going to be . It started to peak 22, 23. The vix is now 13, 14. Youre trying to answer the same questions. Its going to be higher at the end of the next quarter. Thats the problem. Could april showers bring more to the markets . Were joined now with the answers. April maybe for the bulls here. According to our data partners april has been bias toward the upside in a big way. Over the last decade the dow industrials have not once posted a losing month and on average the gain for the dow down nearly 3 as you can see there. Meanwhile the s p 50 positive 9 of the last 10 aprils and the nasdaq 7 of the last 10. Both of those guys post average gains of around 2. 5 . Thats the medium longterm. If you look even longer than 10 years out the same type of story gets told according to S P Global Market Intelligence since 1945 april has been a positive month for the s p. The second most positive behind decembers 76 positive batting average. Of course the usual caveats apply but a little Historical Context for your trading pleasure. Speaks to the point there about starting off the Second Quarter strong. Maybe a little bit wary in the second half of that quarter. Gold had the best quarter in 30 years. Are we going to see a complete reversal. I think you hold on to goal. The Federal Reserve long argued they want an up tick in inflation and theyre not getting 70s style inflation but they want the up tick in inflation. They get a little bit of it and then they tell you were skeptical that its sustainable. To me, in your portfolio seek longer term inflation. Have some inflation protection looking forward. You want to buy gold up 17 . No. I dont think you need it for inflation protection. Historically they do a better job and stocks do a better job as well. Gold is a commodity. Its prone to huge booms and even bigger busts. You can trade it. I just dont think its necessary. It is a trade. A trade over though. I still think is 22 in the cards . So were close so i think theres certain levels im talking about gdx in terms of 22. I dont know how long that can continue to last but thats why i have been trimming into it. I was out very rapidly but in terms of the gdx im going to hold it longer but not much. You run a longer dated portfolio. Do you own gold now . We dont own any gold. Inflation right now, not in the shortterm, i dont see it. A lot of people using gold as a hedge we elections coming on certainty its the thing to do and cover your portfolio. Its like a portfolio hedge but longer term i wouldnt. Heres whats coming up on the Halftime Report. Still ahead, 7 halftime traders battling for the title, trader of the year. Cant have anyone freak out out there, okay . We got to keep our composure. As the First Quarter winds down. Were taking stock of whos winning, whos losing and who is trying to make up for lost time in the halftime portfolio. Plus, missing the mark. Im not supposed to lose. Is it time to sell target . Our experts debate the call of the day. And its been a rough ride for hedge funds. Are the masters of the universe making a come back as stocks rally . Well get the inside scoop. Its all coming up on the Halftime Report. At mfs investment management, we believe in the power of active management. We actively manage with expertise and conviction. So you can invest with more certainty. Mfs. Thats the power of active management. Frank abagnale. Convicted felon and con man. That was a long time ago. You know, they made a movie about it. You were shown to be quite skilled at fraud. Times change. Now i help catch the bad guys. Me too. I help banks detect fraud by applying cognitive analytics to public financial records and social media. So if somebody said, catch me if you can. . We can. Lets do a sequel. It could be a buddy movie. I would like to have a buddy. Woman man yes. A newspaper . Woman its quaint. Man did you read about this latest cyber attack . Woman yeah, i read it on my watch. Man funny. Woman they took out the whole network. Man they had to hand out pens and paper. Woman yeah. Man could it happen to us . Woman no. Were okay. Man we are . Woman yeah, we brought in some new guys. Man what do they know that we dont . Woman that you cant run a country with pens and paper. Its not just security. Its defense. Bae systems. Welcome back to the Halftime Report. Target right there is down 1. 5 . Under pressure as barclays downgraded that stock today as a sell. It is our call of the day and to say its got jim cramer a little fired up this morning would be an understatement. Brian cornell delivered a remarkable quarter in any of the Fastest Growing of any of the onlines including amazon and the quarter was remarkable and this guy comes out and puts a sell on it and i think youre going to look back and say wow that was a really bad call. He said you make a call like this if you know something and this guy knows nothing and youre going to look back and say that this analyst give you a gift to buy the stock here. Agree or disagree. I dont know why you put a sell on this. The stock had an incredible move since the end of january when it was a 67 stock forget about replacing it. Is it a sell or a no . Most of us would agree thats not the type of chart or fundamentals that have been delivered here over the last quarter that you want to sell that stock. Lower sales out tps look drives the call. I dont understand the call. I dont own the stock. And it came in with this call before and whoever wanted to get out. Very small number of people brought it all the way back up and this is the kind of name where if it doesnt rollover on this downgrade and takes out 84 you want to be long. Thats a huge break out getting above last summers highs so from a risk reward standpoint lets see if it can shake it off. Im on the side with jim cramer. I think its ludicrous. The guy was 90 and moves to 70. Why . When you have Digital Sales at 34 its equal to amazon. It seems absolutely nuts to me. I dont understand anything about it. Brian cornell has done every single thing right this whole way. The stock went all the way down. Forget the top of the year. How about a year and a half ago when it was down under 50 and all the insiders came in and bought. We said insiders have come in very much like steve wynn did and started buying up the stock and then you get Brian Cornell to come in here and have the turnaround they have seen so far. The stock does not trade expensive. It trades at a 14 times earnings. They give you a 2. 7 yield and shrunk by 33 in the last decade. Management is unbelievable and thats what makes them so strong in this environment so its 15 to the down side this is a stock that if it gets to 90 more than likely it gets to 100. It goes to 100 before it goes down to 67. Trades on four stocks making news today. First up micron is lower after missing on its revenue. Joe you have been bearish on the name for awhile. I have been and i dont want to buy it. You have a lot of analysts that will downgrade it and lower the price targets and make it a single digit name. The problem is the lack of pricing and more importantly the continued inventory builds. If you have been trapped in this thing they would give you a huge favor. I would take whatever call you get and sell it. Ibm with a vote of confidence and the firm raising its price target. 168. Ibm is a turn around and i have been following this now for a couple of years. We never bought it but its getting really interesting. Theyre really transitioning their business. Thats all higher margin growth. I think this stock could do well for the next couple of years. Mcdonalds planning to add more than a thousand restaurants in china. Stock is up today. One more boost to a Great Company and heres a guy that came in. They have done an amazing job. Not just about the all daybreak fast but trying to figure out ways to make it easier on the franchises. Obviously the all daybreak fast isnt doing that right now because that makes it tougher but theyre trying to reduce the menu and we talked about how its sized. If they can reduce that down and speed up the drivethrus and the big growth in china thats nothing. Thats just the beginning. Coming up, gasoline futures are up more than 60 from the february lows. When will the price surge start causing pain at the pump . Well hit the futures pitts for answers. Plus tesla unveiling the new model 3 tonight. At least one analyst says the new car should be a game changer for the company. Okay. Well debate it when the Halftime Report comes back. Some say free the whales. For them, nothing else is acceptable. But nothing could be worse for the whales. Most of the orcas at seaworld were born here. Sending them into the wild wouldnt be noble. It could be fatal. When they freed keiko, the killer whale of movie fame, the effort was a failure and he perished. But we also understand that times have changed. Today, people are concerned about the Worlds Largest animals like never before. So we too must change. Thats why the orcas in our care will be the last generation at seaworld. There will be no more breeding. Were also phasing out orca theatrical shows. Theyll continue to receive the highest standard of care available anywhere. And guests can come to see them simply being their majestic selves. Inspiring the next generation of people to love them as you do. You ppremium like clockwork. Month after month. Year after year. Then one night, you hydroplane into a ditch. Yeah. Surprise. Your Insurance Company tells you to pay up again. Why pay for insurance if you have to pay even more for using it . If you have Liberty Mutual deductible fund™, you could pay no deductible at all. Sign up to immediately lower your deductible by 100. And keep lowering it 100 annually, until its gone. Then continue to earn that 100 every year. Theres no limit to how much you can earn and this savings applies to every vehicle on your policy. Call to learn more. Switch to Liberty Mutual and you could save up to 509. Call Liberty Mutual for a free quote today at see Car Insurance in a whole new light. Liberty mutual insurance. In new york state, we believe tomorrow starts today. All across the state, the economy is growing, with creative new business incentives, the lowest taxes in decades, and new infrastructure for a new generation attracting the talent and companies of tomorrow. Like in rochester, with worldclass botox. And in buffalo, where medicine meets the future. Let us help grow your companys tomorrow today at business. Ny. Gov dow heat map today. 17,00 17, 753. The dow going for its fifth straight day of gains. Thats american express, mcdonald, microsoft and home depot. The cheapest quarterly gas prices in 12 years and bertha has the futures now crew. Thanks, scott. Yeah, we see the implied demand for gasoline as a result of the prices over 10 in the last few weeks and we have seen gasoline out perform in the energy sector. Its up 14 year to date. But they were giving it away. Its still down 2thirds. But the one thing i think is interesting is tuesday may have culminated this shift from thinking about a hawkish fed to now a neutral fed so the dollars weakness might have a little more difficult time continue so were not shifting to them easing now. So i think that any continued strength is going to be more difficult. What do you think jeff . What levels are you watching right now when it comes to the contract . Well, im not going to disagree with my friend. He highlights the fact that theres resistance here. 150 on the chart. You can see the sensational drive but look at 128. Thats a support level and americans are going to drive 3. 2 trillion miles this year. Im going to fill up my tank and take that additional trip. Its a live show at 1 00 on few urs now on cnbc now. Com and well talk about this incredible rebound in stocks and what that could mean as we look ahead in the Second Quarter with the Investment Group cofounder. Be sure to join us now at futures now. Cnbc. Com at the top of the hour. Well be live. Great guests and well be there as well. Coming up, the thrill of victory and the agony of defeat. A check on who is dominating the halftime portfolio competition and