And now were seeing the reality of that. The meeting is april 17th. So youre going to have continue positive momentum build into that. The Investment Community is underinvested in terms of Energy Equities. Think about what the mentality was in january and february and the actual trade we align with so we have many that own the high yield debt in the energy space and used Energy Equities as insurance and they were natural sellers of that. They have been buying back all along since february and march. Josh xle today is up nearly 3 as we look at it and you own it. And this is the anatomy of a bottom fishing trade that works. We continually on this show look at the stocks acting better than the commodity itself. The stocks bottom january 20th and crude oil doesnt bottom until 2 or 3 weeks later in february. Now you have it 50 off the lows. Thats the producers etf. You have the xle of 30 off its lows. Taking out its 200 Day Moving Average to the upside since september 2014. This is a monster move and it was the stocks telling you that the commodity was getting overdone to the downside. Do you want to talk about monster moves . Around the time josh was talking about its up 250 . Thats the blue chip. February 11th but marathon 74, murphy 71. Apachi 41 all since february. Now its pushing up against the 200 Day Moving Average. Thats help for nearly a year. Its just under 64. And those are the big cap stocks. Those arent the chesapeakes of the world and there have been names spectacular and unbelievable tells in terms of the options. Huge upside call buying. Amj which is one of the things that we dont talk about very much but they brought it up in january. 75,000. 30 calls were bought. Way back. They were going off one year. Those have already doubled since they started buying them. Now theyre trading nearly 2 so there are tirgdifferent parts oe energy space doing well. Some of the other areas leading are pulling back. Take a look at where it is versus not too long ago. Stephanie are you a buyer or a believer . Well, i have been a believer for awhile. So for the last year i owned a lot of names but quality. I stuck with companies that had very strong management teams and very good billion sheets that could manage the storms. By that i mean those kinds of names. What i have been doing is focussing on the companies that had crummy Balance Sheets but improved them. Either debt refinancing or equity offerings. So thats the perfect example. Yeah sure its up 44 from its lows but it has a long way to go. Great assets and Great Management Team and in a whole new debt refinancing and management sets. Its balance as well in the Actual Energy picture. Chevron ceo is talking about that and literally hitting us. Were having this conversation. The eia is now lifting the growth forecast by 10,000 barrels a day to 1. 16 Million Barrels a day. And look at the financials. Theyre doing just as well. And the exposure to a lot of energy loans and look at a suntrust. Look at all of these companies. I think you can buy both groups. This conversation scott. The dollar is now at a level we havent seen since august 2015. Its been coming down for the better part of half of the year even though its still 6. 5 away from the highs. That is the backdrop against which all of the stuff happens. Emerging markets, equitieequitis and we have to keep that on our screen because i feel like its the lever against all the stuff which oil is moving. If its breaking out toward 50 i dont think it has. Were in the new range. The range was 2545. Whatever you want to call it. Trying to get through the whole thing but i think the interesting thing is as you get over 40 and we sustain anything over 40. We talk about this for a long time but its important. That will out pace because of the dramatic moves that they made. They did something that no one thought they would do including themselves. They cut the dividend and by doing so that offered them an opportunity i think over 40. You want to own chevron and exxons. You dont have to look at some of the energy names that really have challenged Balance Sheets and not very liquid high volatility high data. This has been a direct play talk about the xle where you can look up and have a cnq and have a sun core and you can look at the large integrated names that you just mentioned. The survivors, the refiners have not worked because the spread between wti and brent has not gone where it was 3 to 5 years ago. Both are at the highest levels they have been this year. Correct. Thats disappointing. Thats been disappointing. Thats why the refiners have not worked but i would not look at refiners right now because of the underperformance as being an opportunity. Thats something that i think you have to be very patient on. The imf cuts its Global Growth forecast. You have alcoa with a disappointing outlook and maybe thats balanced by the iea and that report that hit just moments ago. If the supply and demand equation starts to turn in favor of crude rising thats significant. It is balancing out because economically when you look at a lot of the emerging Market Companies that are so reliant on selling commodities, selling energy, its very favorable to see a 15 lift in the price of crude oil. Its what central bankers want. They are trying to reinflate their economies. You dont fight that. You embrace it and its also playing a very important part to why commodities have done well. The dollar has weakened and commodities have increased. The valuations are attractive and underowned. If you believe that its going to work and the central bankers are going to be successful you have to be in some of the groups. See you said the banks so theres some what worrisome exposure for some of the names and then theres Quarterly Earnings report which is are not going to be pretty. Who doesnt know that . But thats not a good enough reason to buy the stocks are they . So in my opinion, the First Quarter, if we can get a sense that its the trough. That its the worst. There were smo things that went wrong in the First Quarter for the banks, particularly Capital Markets companies. So if you can get a case that maybe this is the worst quarter then sure you want to be buying them when theyre this cheap. The jury is out. The jury is out on this desk as to whether that is, in fact, the case and we had this conversation the other day as to whether these are simply value traps. I think their capital levels are much stronger than they have been and if you can get a stabilization in energy you dont have that credit cycle fear that everybody was talking about which is what dragged down these stocks and then you can make a case that the inflation rate is work and the economy is not going into recession the fed will raise rates and make these stocks more attractive. The first me trick is a particular Financial Institution. So if youre talk about 10 . Im talking about bank of america. Youre talking 10 . Thats less than 5 . Less than 5 . 4, 5, 6 . Thats not going to matter so much in particular in a time that we have healed. Also lets look at the default rate in the high yield space. Where is it right now . Its at 1. 5 . Its at historical lows. If you strip out energy okay it goes up to 3. 4 . Energy is only around 16 so we have seen in the First Quarter about 65 billion worth of debt downgrade from Investment Grade into high yield and its all coming from the energy space so what was expected in High Yield Energy hasnt occurred right now. Look at the Financial Institutions. You have double digit exposure to the energy loans i want to stay away from those. But Single Digits isnt a problem. Good stuff. Heres whats coming up next on the Halftime Report. Still ahead, taking a coffee break. I believe i ordered the large c capachino. Find out how our resident barista feels about it. Plus investor day at tiffany. Jim is married to the stock but josh and stephanie think hes holding on to fools gold. Well debate it and a Hedge Fund Manager with a killer track record on why he sees value in health care right now. Its all coming up on the Halftime Report. At mfs investment management, we believe in the power of active management. By debating our research to find the best investments. By looking at global and local insights to benefit from different points of view. And by consistently breaking apart risk to focus on longterm value. We actively manage with expertise and conviction. So you can invest with more certainty. Mfs. Thats the power of active management. I am a technological breakthrough. This morning i read over 4000 articles on leukemia. In less than a second. speaking japanese i can understand euphemisms, idiosyncrasy and complex metaphors. I know every detail of every public Quarterly Report in the last 20 years. And im just getting warmed up. Hello. My name is watson. Together we can outthink the limits of whats possible. Welcome to the cognitive era. Check out shares of starbucks today. Downgrading to hold. It is our call of the day and pete is it one you agree with or not . They say it has a premium valuation. Lofty expectations . Its a little bit of an odd call for me. Heres why i say that. He had a target of 70 and now its fully valued because it reached everything that it was going to reach in terms of the call i wouldnt have expected the stock to be very close to 70 rather than very close to a 64 number. I look at the Expansion Projects and looked at china obviously. Theres a lot of Different Reasons why i dont agree with this call and this pull back is an opportunity. What he is doing is hedging . No but hes joining the concern that everyone has for the quarter. Hedging. I agree that i think the expectations are low and i think quarter they can surprise so theres three things concerned. Right now the management commentary surrounding playing the long game in china. Thats the suggestion that things arent going well right now that looks as though the year on year acceleration is moderating and lastly you have a gift card component of it. They sold 19 billion gift cards in the Holiday Season and youre going to see the redemptions in this quarter and i would own some calls. I dont know thats a lot of love for the stock. Theres always been a lot of love. But theyre lowing the price. Thits too rich. I sold the stock at 59. This is a shorter term call for me. If this stock were to pull back to mid 50s and low 50s thats already valuation creation. At this point. Especially because Consumer Discretionary charts have been so hard in the last couple of weeks. In terms of the set up. Six months duncan brands has out performed starbucks and over the last six months. Panera is up 7 plt 5. If you just want to take a slice of the cross section. Theres no way mcdonalds does. Starbucks probably justifies it more but again very expensive name but what is missing is the why. And thats not many publicly traded companies have this big of a global footprint and repeatedly if not deep results at least put up results within the realm of expectations without any wild shocks and starbucks is the best of all of them so im not as afraid to be long this name into earnings because if i were in it and it had a disappointment and sold down 7 i would not feel like its the end of the world because i would be comfortable being a longterm holder. On the upside if this gets above 62. 5 or 63, the juice is loose. This thing is going. From a technical perspective you have an inhearse head and shoulders here. Rising support. You have a pull back. I wouldnt be afraid to get long. If thats our call of the day then juniper could be the buzz kill of the day. Shares getting slammed today. Competitor scisco is falling to. You bought more cisco here. This is less about juniper excuse me, less about an overall slow down and more about execution at juniper and that cisco juniper. And that cisco is taking market. Do you want to talk some under armour. How about apple . Throw that in there too. I think this problem with juniper is very much problematic to the company itself thats given leeway to gain share. This stock trades at a 30 discount to ibm, microsoft and oracle. It has a 4 dividend yield and their quarter included january which is really bad. We all know that. Sis coes quarter does not include january and the company has been very confident in meetings most recently. This is an opportunity to i took a shot. So were not worried about just weak or overall demand. Do we agree that this is simply a case of execution issues and the fact that sis coe and chuck robins have been able to take share . I would think execution issues and thats a clear issue right there and i agree any pull back is an opportunity. You get to see juniper down 9 . You would expect to see the sentiment pulling it down further than it did. Its already off of that a little bit so great job of the execution by you. Now its down to 45 of the business. They havent done that. Thats why its a quarter on quarter decline but one stock i would look at is f5 networks. This is negative because they have not done as well as sis coe has in terms of diversifing. Coming up, debate over tiffany. Jim thinks the company is a match made in heaven. Hes going to call in to make his case plus live video and Virtual Reality and much more when we break down what to expect from facebooks Developers Conference which kicks off in less than one hours time. Im here at the Td Ameritrade trader offices. Steve, other than making me move stuff, what are you working on . Let me show you. Okay. Our thinkorswim Trading Platform aggregates all the options data you need in one place and lets you visualize that information for any options series. Okay, cool. Hang on a second. You can even see the anticipated range of a stock expecting earnings. Impressive. Whats up, tim. Td ameritrade. On their auto insurance. Wouldnt a deal involve two parties discussing something . A little give . A little take . Because last time you checked, your rate was just, whatever they say it is. Why not give you some say in the matter . Or even better let your driving do the talking. Liberty mutual righttrack finally puts you in control of your rates. All you have to do is connect, drive and save. In fact, safe driving could save you up to 30 . With 5 off just for signing up. For righttrack. And the discount is good for the life of your policy. To get started, visit a local office or call Liberty Mutual today at take control of your rates. Visit a local office or call see Car Insurance in a whole new light. Liberty Mutual Insurance were back as the luxury retailer tiffany a stock you should own . Company making its case to investors today in new york city. Jim joins us now on the phone. However some of our other experts days agree and were going to debate it now. Make your bull case as the company is doing the same thing in the heart of manhattan. Excellent. Thanks to whoever put air supply on because thats going to be in my head for the rest of the day but moving on for tiffany this is not for the faint of heart you have to have a lot of faith. I do based on china stabilizing and the labor market continues to strengthen so if you look forward about the next 12 months youre looking at 4 of earnings per share if you put any reasonable multiple on that you have a good 30 stock price depreciation over the next 14 months or so and thats what i like. You have to realize the stock is up 20 off the lows despite estimates having come down next the past six weeks or so and that tell mess that the analyst negativity has gotten about as bad as its going to get. We have been talking about apple being at the forefront of an earnings revision cycle and upgrade in analyst sentiment. Youll see the same thing happen to tiffany over the next couple weeks. There on a january fiscal year so youre not going to see earnings until mid may or so. I have more negativity for you. Its from josh brown right now. Hi, jim, how are you . Josh, im good. How are you . My problem with the stock is not on anything that you said but price action is saying that youre wrong and for me to get long i would want con for mags that the down trend is ending. And the town trend is brutal. It started to take a leg down. Youre not getting anything there either so im not saying that you will be wrong. Im saying that i would just want a little bit more of a signal from buyers willing to come in here and if they dont, you could see this thing back in the high 50s. So im on the side lines but i get exactly what youre saying and youre very handsome. Let me put back to you, i like the way this chart looks off the february lows. Is there a number that you would look at and say okay if it crosses this threshold im positive on the stock . You want to see bakt aboit be the february lows but above 80 is where the sellers give up so shorter term you have right now the shot of a better price lower. I could be wrong. Obviously. We all can be but nothing is telling me that this down trend that started in christmas of 2014 is at an end. You have to remember the power of the brand here. It does carry a lot of weight. Its the reason on the stock which will will come back to it. Getting it back to 24 times and thats what youre playing for here and its going to come in the next 4 months. Youre in first place in the portfolio competition in case you didnt know that. All right im going back to listening for that. You know you listen to it on the tracker. Well see you soon. So how about this tiffany right now is at the midway point between the 42 week high and 42 week low. Almost exactly right there. So is it more apt to move back toward its high or back toward its low . That is what makes it hard. It has rallied 20 off the low. Yes thats below the 20 to 21 times