Started a little bit earlier, and we have josh brown, steve wei weiss, jon najarian, and josh of the macro group gianelli. Well, it is cautious any time, and not just this moment, and anybody who is invested you have to understand that without warning a 10 correction could happen, and that knocks you down 15 or 20 depending upon the portfolio, and the bigger picture, it is shocking that we went into the earning season expecting a not so great earning season, but we all felt, and you know, we all meaning the collective investor psyche, and tech will get it done for us, and the tech has been the source of most of the earningsrelated consternation. Take a look at the triple qs on the monthly basis closing at the 10month moving average in a while, and meanwhile upside surprises in places like exxon. So a lot of what is going on is companyspecific, and the macro stuff is largely papered over. I want to know if now that you have got, you know, icahn again negative on the market, and you know, you have obviously had a great run, doc, since the february 11th or the 10th bottom the or whatever it is, and is it time to get cautious again . Is it time to be worried about the market, and that this tremendous rally that surprised a lot of people is about to rollov rollover, and yesterday, maybe precipitated by what icahn said or confluence of other thing, and selling off again, and how should we be thinking abt it . Well, coming a couple of days before we kick off in may, and the sell in may that you mentioned, that certainly on a week when amazon outperforms like crazy, but apple which had been the darling just underperformed like crazy, and yeah, it made a lot of folks nervous. I wasnt as nervous, judge, because of what i saw out of facebook quite frankly, and what i saw out of amazon that we will talk about, and could we have a 10 correction . I dont see it in the cards here, but i think that we can continue to go right back to work, and more or less ratchet it high ler, but ratchet it slowly grinding, and all i am looking for is 4 to 5 on the year. And go this way, steve, what is more meaningful to where the market goes from here, and since there are two of the three or four biggest stock stories of the week. Apples decline, and now that we know that carl icahn is out or amazons gain . What is more important to hang on here . Well, they are both separate stories completely, and apple is a large number, and tapping the tech innovator that they were in the past, and am song has had the earnings power, but they are showing it to you now. And they are the law of large valuation. Yes, they r and that is why i am not involved. I have been taking the risk off, and the reason is that when the fundamental investing means nothing, and that is the case recently, then something is going on that i cant understand that i cant figure out. When companies are telling me you think that fundamentally, and not driven be i the fundamentals and the recession moved further from the conservaticon sese se servse ser conversation, and the oil moving to 50 and those are fundamental reasons that the stocks went up . Well, actually i disagree, because oil, and nobody can call a fundamental reason for oil to go either way, because it is impossible to analyze. You can look at the production coming down, and the opec nations, it is increasing, and the way i am looking at a company on the verge of bankruptcy telling you that they are filing for bankruptcy, peabody, and then the stock rallies 20 after they tell you that, that is not fundamental, and the other thing that i would say this is the multiple on the market has expanded. This is not the typical point in the cycle when you will get the multiple expansion on the s p and it is shrinking, and the earn in earnings are the worst case snare yoeshgs and without energy, they are not bad, and still not growing. So you have the earnings recession, and albeit, it is the strong word, and multiple expansion, and trading at the higher multiple when the fed was on the cusp of easing. And now, is this a preview of what may is going to be like as we wind down april . Well, a couple of points. One point that there are so many hedge funds closing that we dont know if this is for selling by the guys getting out, and we are talking about the Big Hedge Fund tas are closing, and this is the end of the month, and we might see some of that and people front running and sell in may thing, but when the market is down, i look at the vix, right . That is elevated and then we look at the hyg and is the hyg telling you something, a credit proble problem, and down 20 cents so we are not seeing that, and so we are in the midst of the earning season we which we started at 2050, and so we are back after 300 Companies Report and 200 more to go and at the higher end of the range, and we have the dollar low, and the commodity on fire, and gold doing well, and the baltic dry is over 700, and the things are not going worse, but it might be a little bit of the market hiccup in terms of the earnings, right . Some good, some bad, and the hedge fund selling and that sort of thing. I want you to think about why we had the dramatic drawdown that we did going into the middle of february, and what has changed since. If you consider the twin stories, number one that china is about to crash, and im not saying it is not ever going to have in our lifetime, but it is the other way, and doing massive stimulus again. And when you think of the dollar reversing course, and maybing the emerging markets more palatable, and quite frankly helping the future earnings projections for the u. S. Companies for the time being, those are fundamental shifts, and you may not like what got us there. And actually, janet yellin is responsible for the shifts. And now, the tech but still fundamental changes. But they are not, because you have the policy issues in china actually getting worse, because they are putting off the inevitable, and so you have traded the short term gains in stimulus. And i am not believing that. And this is one thing that is clear and forget the Central Banks and all of that, because you need the fiscal stimulus. And now, the hedge fund, and not one that i am invested in that does not have a 30day know fis for the selling or the liquidating, and most have 60, and 90 like gates, and ackman, a year and a half, and versus the mutual funds. And it is the end of the month quarterly. Quarterly. Okay. It is not until the end of june versus the mutual funds that are for the mutual funds, because it is daily liquidity, and so it is not a hedge fund force and you have ten hedge funds worth 6 billion a piece going out of business, somebody is selling. Well, they are not going out of business. Well, yes, they are shutting the doors. And i need 90 days to get out, and if im a mutual fund running a trillion or more like they r then i have to sell the day they come out. And we had a 14 rally in the s p and maybe they want to take a couple of chips off of the table if you are a mutual fund running trillions of dollars. You are calling a twoday backup a hiccup, and we are overdoing it on that, and if you think that the market, doc, head heading into may is setting itself up for the fall, what do you need to do . Well sh, then you because the sentiment has completely shifted from the february, and the diamond bottom february 11th, and it is a hated rally, if you want to call it that, but sentiment is certainly different than it was in the beginning part of february to where it is now. Yeah. And until carl icahn gave maybe everybody a reality check that he is still worried. He is still worried, and he is worried last time, and the gentleman that would make him some sort of cabinet member, mr. Trump says that there is a recession imminent, and so there is plenty of reason for folks to be worried are, however, i dont think that most of the earn iin reports that we are seeing right now bear that out. Apple, certain ly. And we most of us on desk think that thats a waiting for the 7. 0, and not waiting for the fact that people have not wanted a phone every year or two years with the upgrade plans the way ta were, and so i dont believe it has changed significantly, and apple is still going to be doing the big numbers and so apple right here got down to the february low, and right down to the august lows, and right down there, and it is bouncing slightly, but carls comments certainly had a lot of folks who were in it, because of carl and worried because is in the canary in the coal mine hitting the sell button . And do we believe that are the are people with real money selling though, because carl icahn and like, is anyone . Well, i am reminded right now that art cassian who is a well respected voice, and nobody can pick the exact catalyst of why the market is selling off, but he called it on to the closing bell the icahn flush. And that is the process of buying and selling, because another investor no matter how smart or well connected or whatever says you should do . I feel bad for you. And that is not the first time that carl said that there is going to be a flush. No, he said it is lower. And after you have had a tremendous run in the stocks, does it not force you the sit back, and say, you know what, maybe now is the time to take a lit le chips off of the table, and take a few chips off of the table when we are heading into the may, and sell in may may work . Well, i dont believe that steves institutional clients would listen to that. And that is not the point. The point is that in the market, if you are ail seller, and not institutional seller, they will take your money, man, and keep driving down the bid, and that is the momentum, and the machines kicking in the momentum. And the interesting thing is crude is up, or at least five minutes ago and the market is down five days, and we have not seen that correlation in a long, long tile. And ceo bill ackman is going to join us for the entire monday, and it is an exclusive interview here on the Halftime Report and so much to talk to him about the performance of the hedge furnds or how valeant has more news, and we will get to all of it. This is what else is coming up on the Halftime Report. Jim cramer says a bull market is ahead for pharma. Is he right . We will and finergy, is it the bang . And it is the 2016 cnbc stock draft, and our staff will give you the picks for the rest of the year. Welcome back to the Halftime Report and we want to call your attention to nbc partners which is off of the worst levels so far. The company has released a statement saying that mdc management is con fident in the Financial Reporting and accounting practices, and it is intending to defend itself against the false and misleading accusations of the short seller report which is solely focused on destroying the value for the shareholders for their own personal gain. The this is with regard to the short selling Research Report put out earlier by Gotham City Research which alleges and makes the case that mdc partners as a stock that should be worth 1 per share or 96 downside from hee, and they have made the case in the report which is what drove the shares down as much as 23 intraday earlier today, but again, scott, guys, mdc partners are responding saying that i will defend themselves vigorously against this attack of short selling firm. And stocks are down 14 , so they have work to do if they want to continue to try to fight back against the allegations. Dom chu, thank you so much. And now sh, over to the desk. Four trades on four stocks making news today. Western dig is falling, and what is the story . Well, the whole sector as steve gave as well as the others are under pressure, and there is a lot of factors going on right now, but one of the things is that they are obviously not getting the orders they anticipated and they did not plan for that. That is big when you have valuation above the sector, and right now, over 13 billion, and backed down to 8 billion and seagatet is at a 6, and the chart is ugly, and 40 is a big level, and so you want to watch this carefully. And exxon and chevron, and break it down. Josh brown for the breakdown. So, the look, these are the companies coming into the reporting season with very, very low expectations, and they have both managed to beat in some reare spect if you can call it exxon by 13 cents on the earnings, and chevron on the revenue, but this is the power of the low expectations, and this is why Value Investing works, and these stocks have largely run up into the report, and maybe this is going to cool them off, because people said that it is not as bad, and it was not. And doc, a pandora jumped on the hikes, and stocks down 4 , and what are you going to do with that . Well, they beat on the top line, and listeners, and the churn was not bad, and instead of the churn where ta lost the listeners, they have added 79. 4 billio billion, and so the time spent listening up. The advertising which those of us who listen for free up as well, and so that is a positive report for pandora, and bad for some of the others in the space. And steve weiss, buy due, the stocks are up 6 , and shy. Yes, line linkedin, and not only did they beat the guidance, but they have raised the guidance Going Forward. And off of this, i bought j. D because they had gone up last quarter, and now close to the highs, and this is going to be important in may. And the gold is hitting a 15month high, and one trader said that the rally is getting higher. We will go to if futures pit to see about the trade coming up. And when everybody was running away from linkedin, one of our guys ran in, and the company is reporting below out earnings, and upping the guide answers as well. And we have a trade update as welcoming up. Turns romantic turns romantic why pause to take a pill . Or stop to find a bathroom . Cialis for daily use is approved to treat both erectile dysfunction and the urinary symptoms of bph, like needing to go frequently, day or night. 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The united mileageplus explorer card. Imagine where it will take you. Hows it going watson . Welcome to the bank. Hello tom mccabe. Executive from dbs bank. I am keeping busy assisting your relationship managers. How so . I can read over a thousand Research Reports every day, to help you keep abreast of market movements and to help your relationship managers give better advice. Thats great. Todays fast moving markets make it hard to keep up. But together we can stay one step ahead. We make a great team, watson. All right. Welcome back to Halftime Report and gold is jumping 2 today and hitting the highest levels in more than a year. And Jackie Deangelis at the nymex, and in the nynex and all around new york city. It does not matter, and good afternoon to you, scott. Gold prices are getting a big bid today even though the stocks are not, and approaching the critical 1,300 level, and jim, what is behind the move . At first glance i would say the weak dollar. Yes, i do, it is the weak dollar specifically against the yen. The yen is exploding this week. If you are looking back for a couple of years like what the huge move in the gold was all about, it was about a accommodative boj, and the juxtaposed to the hawkish fed. The fed has walked back to neutral, but the other part seemed dovish boj, and the bocd, and now the boj is going to be questioning the efficacy of the economics here, and it is push ing the gold up. And now, let me ask you, because 26 is the move, and may not break 1,300, and if so, if it is going to the happen, when will it happen . Well, now, and about the next month or so. I said yesterday on the show, and so did anthony, the trade of 127 1276ish, that meant higher prices, and now that we will settle above that, 1,400 in the next couple of months, and the level in the hex int couple of weeks is 1330 for me, and i want to see bl where it is, but this is a mediumlongterm trade for me. Yes, we will watch the futures. Thank you, jim. Back to you, scott. Thank you, jackie. The gold is pushing 1,300, and faded here . No, it is a new and the rethat is going to it is a trend that is going to be going on for the rest of the year. Gold is a function of the zero Interest Rate, and negative Interest Rate policy that is going on in the world as well as china doing better than expected and not falling off of the cliff. So if you are going to be looking back to when gold started to the break out, it is the negative Interest Rate policy is implemented and basically everybody flocked to the the gold. And the gdx is up 13 on the year. Yes, and im in it still, and pete is. As long as you are and pete are in it, i am in it. They are in and out of stuff in five minutes. So check back with them in the commercial break. Yes. And this is probably one of the longest holds of any of my disclosures on the site right now, and the reason is that it is work. There is barely even a pullback. If you are going to get a 20 or 30 pullback off of the gdx, it is rare, and it is going left to right on the 45 degree angle, judge. No reason to get out of it yet. All of the catalysts that john mentioned are still out there for this, and then today, silver wheaton and barrick and a whole list of others are hitting the gdx for the upside, so there is a number of interest out there. And to you put your clients in gold . No. Why not . It does not serve a purpose in the portfolio. It could be a little bit more than oneword answer. Well, i dont have a problem, but when we do the portfolio construction, and when you are running the regression, and what it contributes to the portfolio, it is tough to say, because it is a commodity, an unbelievable cyclical boons, and busts, and if you are going to own it because it is an inflation hedge, and sorry, but the Real Estate Investments do better as do many categories of stocks. But if you do it to hedge against