Its obviously a report that was somewhat shocking for wall streets economists. But i would say if you look at the reaction in stocks today, its fairly muted. Dollar down about a percent and a half. Gold is up 2. 4 . But its kind of sloppy. That charts all over the place. But then you take a look at equities themselves. And pretty clearly you can see the nasdaq, after being up seven days in a row, is down 0. 7. Small caps down a little bit more than 1 . S p, large cap nams are really down barely. Yeah, because because the market believes that june is now off the table. Isnt that the because a weakening dollar is not a negative for whats been ailing the market in a positive. Q4 and q3 of this year were going to lap what went on last year with that dallas racing higher, wrecking the earnings of the commodities. A plunging dollar but a weakening dollar is being viewed as constructive. Liesman, what happened today . You know, im looking at you. You got your hair all together. Your suit is well pressed. Me, im a mess. Im an absolute mess over this. I mean you think you have a view of the world, that the economy is strengthening to the second quarter. Youve got decent jobs. Youre prepared for the jobs report to take a step down. But not to crash. So you got to go back shuffled. Im feeling internally dishevelled. I cannot evaluate myself on air. People will write in. Internally im feeling a little intellectually dishevelled. June is off the table . I think june is off the table. The easy way to think about this is youve got a very cautious fed. The behavior has shown when theyre faced with this kind of uncertainty, given where weve been and the performance of the economy theyd rather wait. Christian had some good points about that. Theres no down side given where the Inflation Numbers have been. Youve got to think, okay, is some of the fiscal anomaly the idea that you came along and have the three month avenue. All of a sudden it crashed. You know you have 35,000 verizon workers youre going to add that back in. You think construction is doing better given what weve seen from the construction numbers than down 15,000. However you still have to stand back and say wait a second is there a material weakening going on. Not the softer i was going to add that in, scott. The first time ive ever done maybe back in 08 i did it, where the jobs arent. Usually its where the jobs are. But the negative really you have Capital Industries lost jobs this time around. And thats the lop tine there is your verizon workers. Temp help. Good leading indicator, down 21,000. Manufacturing now maybe were seeing some stability in manufacturing. But you want to see the whites of the eyes on any rebound. Dr. J. , what are you going to do . You didnt think they were going to go in june jean way. Nope. Youve got to believe they have to wait for the next jobs report if this wasnt an anomaly or something to be concerned about. Weve tauxed about the brexit and the pressure this put on the fed and i believe that pressure is still there. Even with ms. Yellens speeches and so forth that are going to be delivered ahead of the june 14, 15 meetings. Monday she speaks. Now it becomes even more important. Markets going to be hinging and hanging on every word. You wouldnt have jamie diamond over in the uk right now basically talking about the workers that work for jpmorgan over there, and more or less trying to gather this consensus that this is bad for them unless that vote was a heck of a lot closer than most of the polls are saying. That is that ms. Yellen doesnt want to screw up. With her speech on monday. So where i think it puts us, that is a horrible number in april followed up by an even more disgusting number in may, and then the april number, is revised the market is moving off of the lows and isnt as bad as a number like this would perhaps cause liesman just said june is off the table. No. Its one number. Thank you. We got god pce earlier this week. Im not saying july is awful. Im not really sure july may be on the table. July has been did heres whats off the table today. Banks. Banks are selling off. Banks were a bright spot because we figured okay, economys improving, Interest Rates are moving up, good for the banks. Thats why those stocks have been running. Not today theyre not. We could be down a lot more. Some of them are only down 2 or 3 . Theyve had a really big rally. Was the bank trade just killed today . I dont know. No, i dont think so. Because i dont think this is one number and its a crummy number. So im not going to sugarcoat it at all. You could say the 2. 5 wage number wasnt horrible. The work week number wasnt horrible. So lets see some of the other theres no tisilver linings within this. Wait a second. This is one number. We got the pce number earlier this week and steve was talking about people going to 3 gdp for the second half of the year and raising their numbers and whatnot. Maybe were not 3 . But were probably somewhere between 2. 5 youve got two key parts of the trade thats worked. Where the money has gone. Were following the money. The moneys gone to banks. The moneys gone to tech. If we think the economy is getting soft, cyclicals like tech may not work. Banks if they stay low may not work. What does that do to the market . Its a very fragile market, scott. Thats one of the reasons that the fed has to stand pat in june because josh you mentioned this a second ago about strength of the dollar or weakening of the dollar. If the fed were to go in june, and i dont think it is, the strength of the dollar would then carry, would really kill all of the cyclicals. It would kill the ism which is barely above 50 and has been below 50 for quite some time on the manufacturing prior to the most recent call. The fed just cant afford to have a strong dollar. That would kill all these fragile cyclicals. I want to ask you a question, steven, isnt it logical to conclude that when weve had quarter after quarter, year after year after solid gains in employment that the closer we get to full employment, the more we should expect a deceleration in jobs growth . Its absolutely actually before we came on air talked about this idea that maybe were seeing some evening out in the productivity numbers. The idea if output remains high, and the number of workers goes down, productivity, will come up. You should have some kind of cyclical bounce back. But youre right, other economists also point out exactly what you say. As we reach or near full employment, the total number of employees hired should begin to go down. Ive talked about i anumber of steady state employment number coming off what fed officials said of about 100,000. Maybe in a mean reversion world where you did 150, it would really calm with 75,000 if you add verizon back in. This is not out of line. I didnt expect that stepdown to happen as quickly. Set the stage for monday. Give me the context of the kind of forum shes speaking in. What shes likely to say. Most recently the fed chair was talking we didnt expect much. Maybe we got a little more than we thought. I would like to say the fed is rewriting that. A couple different versions of the speech already written. Thats the way they do things. They come in with options like a chinese menu of economic characterizations. Theyre probably going with the more cautious one that says look, the fed no matter what you hear the one that hardly anybody is writing latelyly . Exactly. I dont know what you hear the fed say. What the fed does say is well do x, y and z dependent on the data. The data has not come through with what they thought in their forecast, so its not hard for them intellectually to say okay, im just pushing it ahead. I think were going to be okay here. Thats the baseline forecast. But its not happening right now so im going to wait. And im just going on what janet yellen has shown us about how she runs the ship. She runs it very cautiously. She waits and she waits until the moment is right. Its been six months. I think i went back, ive never found a period of time in a rate hike cycle where the fed has waited six months and still call it the same rate hike cycle. It almost isnt. Lets bring in another voice for more on this. Jeff kleintopf is at charles schwab, nearly 2. 6 trillion under management. Welcome. Thanks. Why dont you weigh in on what youve heard already. I think you kicked off the show on the right topic which is the dollar. You can see here in the u. S. But look overseas. Japans not open but boy you can expect a big down on monday morning, because of what it means for the yen. Remember, yen strength bad news for the japanese economy. Thats going to be but look on the emerging market side. Take a look at these etfs for emerging markets today. Theyre up nicely. A weaker dollar, good news for those guys. Take a look at todays moves. Do the opposite of them for the second half. The fed is still likely to hike rates, and i dont think this is this is one report. I dont think it takes the fed off the table. You can buy the financials. You dont think it takes the fed off the table in june . I dont know a whole lot of folks who expect to move in june but we do expect to move at least one move in the second half of this year. Fed fund futures pointing to 90 likelihood even post this report of a move by the end of the year. I think thats what really is going to currency is going to key off of. Jeff, its josh. So average out earnings running at a 2. 5 growth rate year over year. Thats fairly healthy given what gdp is. And given the Labor Force Participation rate, et cetera. Is that something that can accelerate from here or is your expectation slow but steady more of the same . Im afraid its the latter. Little bit steady, more of the same. Its not a deterioration. I think the fed is focused on the wage numbers. Weve heard them talk about it. Thats the key to inflation. A lot of this is about the labor market that comes back to where is inflation and whats the risk of deflation look like globally . As long as we can maintain modest wage growth and were seeing that in europe as well thats a positive and puts the fed on a track towards raising rate. Last question, jeff, if the bull market almost in its entirety some argue was a product of fed accommodation, what happens when more of that accommodation comes off . This whole thing is about the fed, is it . Theres certainly a lot of suggested, if you look at the charts, every time we had qe, markets disconnected from the economic fundamentals to the upside and they came right back to them. I think theyre close to them now here in the u. S. Overseas youve still got positive policy being put forth in the eurozone. Note that just adding as of wednesday of next week corporate bounds being added to the program in europe and japan is going allout. Theres still a lot around the world and you can expect that to continue to destroy markets as it has been. Perhaps to the upside. Thanks. Jeff kleintop, charles schwab. Steph wrap it up. I dont think this changes in terms of hes a big portfolio management. Thats what im talking about. You want to continue to do what you have been doing which is kind of a barbell. I still want to own cyclicals. I think the lower dollar is very good for the industrial. Pretty good for energy, too. So well have to see. Monitor the dollar. I think thats very, very important. I like cyclicals but i also like it as lowyield environment. Youve got to have some yield. So the staples trade i think still works. Im going to continue doing that. Good conversation, guys. Heres what else is coming up on the Halftime Report. Controversial, expensive, and risky. Thats what one analyst calls tesla. So why is he saying its time to buy . Our call of the day is next. Plus rates, real estate and reits. Steve leblanc breaks down the best places to put money to work in real estate. And wall street greets its shareholders today. Were live at the meeting with a look at the companys future plans. And well debate the stop. That and more, ahead on the Halftime Report. charge music you wouldnt hire an organist without hearing them first. Charge so why would you invest without checking brokercheck . Check your broker with brokercheck. Man 1 i came as fast as i man 2 this isnt public yet. Man 1 what isnt . Man 2 weve been attacked. Man 1 the network . Man 2 shhhh. Man 1 when did this happen . Man 2 over the last six months. Man 1 how did we miss it . Man 2 we caught it, just not in time. Man 1 who . How . Man 2 not sure, probably offshore, foreign, pros. Man 1 what did they get . Man 2 what didnt they get. Man 1 i need to call mike. Man 2 dont use your phone. Its not just security, its defense. Bae systems. Were back on the Halftime Report. Tesla shares under pressure this year. Our next guest says the slump wont last long. He thinks that stock could rally 37 from here. Rob sira initiating Coverage Today a buy rating and 300 for the price target joins us in our call of the day. Welcome. Thanks very much. Why did you make this call . I think teslas a really important company. I look at it as a technology company. Increasingly important as hardware and Software Plays a bigger role in the auto industry. I think theres a lot of growth ahead for these guys. I dont think anybody would argue with sort of any point that you made. The question is, does it deserve the valuation that it has, can it make the number of cars it says . And is there really enough of a market out there for what tesla thinks . I think those are all legitimate pushbacks. Absolutely. So i mean, its expensive. Theres no doubt about it. Youre paying a premium for the growth. On 2019 numbers but i think thats the way you have to look at it. Theyre investing a lot now, for much bigger volumes than theyre doing now. What i think is important is, is the demand for electric vehicles there . I think they are proving that its there. The challenge really is to now execute, and to manufacture those cars, but i kind of feel like the important part of the demand is the demands there, theyll be able to get there ultimately on a supply. Im going to unleash the wolves. If you will. Rob, dr. J. Is first. And im sitting in front of a panel of traders and investors who all dont like the stock. Dr. J. Is number one. Well, rob, again, took guts to make the call so hats off to up for that. I can trade this name but i cant put customer money in it. As an investment. Just because of this valuation. So in other words i can own it for days, weeks, even just hours at a time when i see something that merits it, but boy your faith to have to have that belief in somebody thats got the reality of the field second only to steven jobs as far as what he can actually do versus what he thinks or what he says he can do. I mean, that statement moving up his production numbers, that i thought was just ludicrous and it really put the gun to his head. You dont fiernd that pressure to be something that should be avoided, rather than encouraged . I mean i think teslas goals are certainly ambitious. And theyre going to be challenging. But, at the same time, you know, i mean if teslas actually able to get to a point where theyre making 400,000 to 500,000 cars a year which theyre hoping to do in a couple years, i mean that is about the number of bmw three series sold in a year. Its not like they dont have to take over the car market they just have to get their small slice of it. Rob i appreciate you coming on kicking this around with us. Talk to you soon. Thanks very much. And i want to underscore, no one here wants to buy this stock. I think you were kind to cut off the wolves to use your term. Look theres a lot of things to question here. And it is the a bold call on his part. But one of the things, and just one of the things i think about is competition from other sources. You know, chevys got the volt and im not saying that people appear to have the volt the way they aspire to have a tesla but when bmw comes out with an electric car or any of the other luxury cars come out with electric cars, which they will, thats going to eat in to the demand for tesla and make those multiples that rob is talking about even harder to achieve. Lets spin this a little bit and say rather than all saying no, we wont buy tesla. You like General Motors. Correct. Give me a General Motors versus tesla conversation. Which one has the better upside, the better longterm performance capability . Well i strongly think General Motors. Thats why im in it and not in tesla. A lot of this does have to come down to valuation, but it also has the execution risk with the tesla which hasnt met any of the production goals theyre trying to reach for now, whereas gm has this in the bag. I think on gm theres things that could go right for them. South america they could see less losses. Europe they could grow and stay profitable. China theyre making inroads. There are certain things for General Motors i think where the valuation is so low and the expectations are so low and you get a nice yield while you wait, i would not own gm or tesla, id own the Auto Parts Companies because thats where you get the leverage. Greater return in five years. Being an investor in General Motors or ford or tesla . I think you could make money in General Motors, ford or tesla in five years, the thing is for which company do more things have to go right . And thats what when you Value Investors talk about margin of error, you dont have one in tesla. Everything has to go perfectly just to justify this name having a 200plus stock price. With gm and ford, everything does not have to go perfectly. Youre being paid a nice yield to wait for things to go right. Everything almost has gone perfectly and the stocks havent im not in any of these and id rather be in aerospace, frankly. Companies involved in growth areas. Autos are not going to be a growth area. Theyre going to be a grind it out area. Look i know when jim leben thal pulls up to the hamptons in the chevy volt the girls go crazy. I dont look at that as a competitor of tess lore. The real competitors will be bmw and porsche are not eating crayons while tesla builds out the model three. Hes more likely to be heading up to woodstock in this tractor. Theres going to be serious competition and im not talking about apple cars, google cars. Throw deer the real competition doesnt come from companies that actually have the experience to turn out half a million vex in a year. That can actually put millions of cars on the road. Tesla may be able to do it but theres a lot of faith required here. So i think theres room to say, i love him. I think you can do that as a reasonable person. Some call it the super bowl of pharma and biotech. What stocks are likely to move the most . Plus shares jumping higher on better than expected earnings . What could results mean for go pro. A the Td Ameritra