Youve been bullish. I am bullish. You think we could get a correction next week. I think there are two catalysts. One, the president s speech before congress. Thats the 28th, folks. Tuesday. That will be in the evening. Tuesday, in the evening. In other words, really the trading begins of course the first of march for that. I know theres afterhours trading of the s p in particular at that time. But, what you had today was the president at cpac of course, judge. He threw the red meat out there. The audience loved it. He side i care about you guys. Not about the globe. I represent you, not the globe. Thats why hes been able to drag so many folks into the republican party. Because the workers have listened to that rhetoric. He also talked about repealing obamacare. Those two things, how far, are not going to be as big as his speech tuesday because thats going to be all about do we hear a lot about taxes like we did from mnuchin. If he thinks that cpac that hes speaking to because congress isnt going to be jumping up and down and cheering like cpac, that audience was. I dont think hes going to forget. But the repeal and replace obamacare as well as, hey, i represent you guys and not the globe, that isnt going to be as big for wall street as taxes you think the president needs to come with real substance. Yep. On tuesday night. That the market wants to hear. Mnuchin needs to do that and i think they want to hear about regulations. The roll back of regulations can keep this rally on track. Then youve got the 15th of march. Two potential catalysts in the month of march. The other one of course being the fed meeting on the 15th. Kate moore, do you get the feel as some people have suggested that there is a sort of an overoptimism in the market . An overload of optimism around this ralry . People love talking about this being a trump rally but i think theres a lot of fundsmentals underpinning the market moves over the last couple of months and a sigh of relief and people have been willing to take risk. I agree that trumps speech next week needs to have detail on policy. If we dont get it on tax reform, if we dont get it on a Regulatory Reform, if we dont have a road map, i think thats when the market starts to say, okay, i need to figure out what i can price into earnings. You know, thats absolutely right, but lets point out weve been without a road map really since november 8th. Weve been talking about this is going to come, tax reform, regulatory, roll back. All weve gotten really are distinct actions often the wall and the immigration ban. So the reason im pointing this out is, jon, i do think youre right. We should have a correction at some point in time. But the key words there, scott, are at some point in time. I dont know when. I dont know if its when the tax plan is rolled out and somebody doesnt like something in it. Were trying to figure out when and what ultimately causes it. I dont think you can figure that out. And if i told you that its that its monday and he tweets something about im going to make this up, north korea, if i got that right it would be luck. Not analysis. This is not an analytic point, when the market will correct. It will correct. I think so next week is important but i also think the european elections are important. I think thats whats driving rates lower. Look at the ten year today. Its almost at new lows. But anyway, the point of it is theres a lot of uncertainty. Theres a lot of volatility to kates point, though, into volatility you want to be buying because fundamentals are improving. And the economy is not only here but globally, the economies are getting better. We get good data points just about every day but everybody is so obsessed and trump and what that means and valuations. I would be much more concerned fbt economies were not improvings if guidance wasnt as positive, if balance streets werent as strong. Youre buying stocks though. I am buying stocks. Youre not overly concerned, cautious, or anything if you continue to buy stocks. Well, im buying stocks that actually have gotten hit hard but where i think the prospects are pretty good. So im trying not to get caught up in the minutia because if i do i wouldnt buy anything. Freeport ma mcmorran down 20 . Improving balance sheet. I like the reflation trade as you know but im also buying mgm grand. Down t since reported. Milan labs. No one likes those names. Im starting to pick at that one. Im just looking for where theres opportunity and where the stocks have corrected and where i think fundamentals Going Forward will improve. Were look at strong fundament fundamentals. I agree. Strong earning season, i gragre. You want to find something out there, scott, i dont think its just about trying to find value. Why not find value with growth and weve done that and those are the areas that have performed. Look at how the financials have been performing. Look how technology has been performing. I think you can stick with that and theres opportunities every single day. As steph is talking about other areas as well and what were seeing is every single day, used to be quarterly. Used to be yearly. Then turn quarterly, now daily, the rotations. Were seeing semi is having a great day and then not having a great day. Theres rotations very rapid in this marketplace. But thats also why i think were hitting these record highs almost daily. Todays big pullback is 47 points. 47 points on a market thats been screaming up how many points since trump got into office. Are you suggesting we dont think were right for a pullback . At any moment, to jims point over bought and then say, i dont care, overbought doesnt mean over. You can stay overbought for a long period of time. I think the reality is that at any moment in time there could be something that obviously triggers this to pull back. Fundamentally right now and you were saying that as well, fundamentally right now whether youre looking here or globally it doesnt look that bad as much as everybody wants to say weve got to get that correction. Bigging in buying the vix, for instance, buying in april. Buying april call spreads and things. Why . Koch nati combination of tax policy. 11. Thats why. Cheap. Cheap. Its cheap. Buy when you can, not when you have to. Its been cheap for weeks, months, and they havent been buying as aggressively as now. Big iwm spread. Puts spread bought in there. Upside calls sold. Those are hedges. Like i say, these are not straight out bearish bets. Theyre hedges because nobody is selling 2. 5 million ibm naked. We are talking about the u. S. Market which is important and a number of catalysts or big events over the next few weeks but one thing weve focus and outside of the u. S. Yes, theres a lot of fear being priced into the european equities even though were getting a little bit of in turn in terms of earnings thankfully after six years of real malaise. Weve seen as were talking about a global reflation trade and actually lots of good companynd macro data around the world so we would say when were looking for value and opportunity, lets see where outside of the u. S. We can have a good structural and cyclical tail wind. Some are not giving up on the u. S. Rally just yet. Citigroup says there is something that could fuel the rally enfurther. Robert buckland is the chief Global Equity strategist at citigroup, live with us from london. Bob, good to see you again. Hi. You say animal spirits are alive and well and in no sign of abating. Yeah, i mean, m a activity is a key contributor to bull markets. We saw that in 19902000. We saw it in 2000, 67. The percentage of Global Market cap that has taken out any time, any year. That number hit around 9 or 10 in 1990 to 2,000. It hit around 9 in 2007. Its currently only 6 . So the companies have not really piled into this bull market yet. Do you feel that the u. S. Markets right for a correction or not . Markets never go anywhere in straight lines. Far instance this one almost has since november. They dont yeah, thats four or five months, right. Our target is only 3 above the current level for the s p. That is suggesting to us u. S. Strategies thinking probably rather buy into bit of a setback. On a 12month view were bullish. But buy it maybe right now. When you look at this market, its jimlebenthal, by the way. This looks like a classic stair step of 20 years ago. You went up after the election. Paused in december. It was basically flat. Weve gone up in january. Were kind of trickling higher but mostly pausing here. You know, when you look at that do you see that continuing through the end of the year or is there can you see a hiccup coming to the upside i think it would be hard to predict. But to the downside there are so many pitfalls out there, particularly with regards to policy. Absolutely. We think that globally the big risk to markets from here is the bench election in april and may where potentially we could have an antiemu candidate win that election. Thats the major global risk out there. Whether that thats going to hit every equity market including yours if it occurs. So just so im clear whats your target for the end of the year . Our target for the s p for the end of the year is 24, 25. Thats as i said, only 2 or 3 where we are now. Bob, good to talk to you. Appreciate it. Bob buckland of citi. How does it fit in . Some of it makes sense. When they put this target out there the market was well below here. Theyre sticking with what their call was which was something north of 2400 on the s p. Because of the run theres not as much room. So that says to me well still see rotation within, a little bit of a rise, but i dont know necessarily that you can be an absolute raging bull right this second. Are you do you agree with the whole m a sort of thing, animal spirits taking hold and propelling the markets further because the companies are going to do deals . M and a would be a great indication of animal spirits returning. But we need to see lots of other activity as well. We need to see lots of r and, in. We need to see growth productive cap x. We need to see even more hiring i think to indicate companies are feeling confident. As we were talking about we dont have the policy program in place yet. You could actually make a case that companies are more confy decon con confyfy dent. Weve been hearing from companies coming to our office, that since december companies small, medium businesses and Large Businesses are much more confident since theres a progrowth potential. All you need to do is listen to what they say when they come out of the white house. One after another from industry after industry. I think thats a good sign because i think that is going to lead to Better Business investment. This cycle has not had any business investment. So we would all be very much welcome to see Something Like that. I would also just say that within the market whats happening is youre starting to see this rotation. So its starting to broaden out so its not just the cyclicals like weve talked about ad nauseum. Its actually health care now. Its actually consumer staples. Look at utilities. Theyve actually done very, very well. I think thats a healthy sign and maybe thats just what we need. Maybe we rotate, we dont have to have a big massive selloff. We have this rotation that happens. We have seen that big pickup in sentiment indicators. Across the board, small and medium size businesses, Large Businesses and private corporations all kind of saying the same thing. What we want now is follow through. Sure. We cant tell if some of the announcements in inactivity are bringing forward activity already planned to apiece the new administration or if were really talking about a step change in terms of spending money and investing. Thats where im holding off judgment until we get to the middle part of the year. In terms of your rotation that you mentioned, we havent enseen, have we, the biggest rotation of all and that meaningful move from bonds into stock. Look where the yields are. Absolutely true. Right back down to 232. Thats a function of the concern about the european election. Thats not like thats netanyaherlands about pen and merkel now trailing for the first time. Ten year is 232. I know. Its up. 0. 6 . Kate, 0. 6 or 0. 5 . Were in that range. Thats whats anchoring this down. What you can see, scott, if the fed does make more Interest Rate moves, that people forget about the International Bond markets and they just focus on where short term rates are here in the u. S. And where the yield term if people are getting more nervous about the state of the equity rally. I dont think so. Look, were talking a lot about a correction here. Any good adviser is going to tell their clients dont try to time a correction. You cant. Now, what were not talking about is a bear market and why are we not talking about that because theres no indication of a recession here in the u. S. Or anywhere in the globe. Youve got strong labor market. Youve got all sorts of industrial surveys shooting the moon now. Philadelphia fed was crazy last week. Theres no sign of a recession, hence, no bear market. New at noon today, veteran short seller andrew left is making a big move and joins us now on the phone. Andrew, are you there . Yes, i am. Hi. Its good to talk to you. Your move is you have covered now your nvidia short all together. You think that thats run its course . Well, december 28th i suggested when nvidia got to 119, i thought the move was a bit overdone postearnings. So i thought at the time it was a good short. Thought it would trade closer to 90. This morning it was close to 96. I thought obviously you cant hit everything on the head. If somebody wanted exposure in the area right now as a short its not nvidia anymore at 96 but a focus on mobileeye. Which is a stock, by the way, youve already been short. You took the profits, i guess, from nvidia and rolled them into what is now a larger position in mobileye. What i discussed the mobileye short i compared it against against individualia. Were watching a mobileye at 47 and change. Do you have a price target on moblieye . Short term, 35 number. Obvio obvious. A one trick pony. Youre so much better off you can even buy google and get that whole area for free after the search, alphabet, that is. Obviously nvidia has also dedicated significant amount of resources to autonomous. Unfortunately its not just me. I put out a note today on twitter and you can see, follow the insiders. When youre insiders sales are so much greater than even your r d right now mobileye is bringing a knife to a gunfight. Theyre a first mover, no doubt. First million miles that they acquired very valuable and thats why they were able to go ipo. But since then, everyone is caught up to them. Their management knows it. Look at the amount of sales. And now they say last quarter we might have to invest more in r d. Thats something they should have thought about two years ago as movements for autonomous has happened so fast. Are you looking for more short ideas as we speak . Do you feel there are more opportunities that are right for the picking just given where the market itself has gone . I mean, good question. The answer is its when i hear your show, its, yes, but you have to be patient. You have to scale into the opportunities. You have to be short a stock that you want to short higher. When an eventual and inevitable correction does come, you will get paid. But you have to be prepared to take a lot of pain in the meantime. Pete najarian has a question for you. Andrew, i agree with you when i see all that Insider Selling obviously that tells me a little something. When but when you see the Revenue Growth and the percentage about 70 of autonomous is what they own right now. Is your fear or your conviction is that they are losing that, two others in the space right now . 70 of oautonomous. The advance driver safety. Its a big difference. Autonomous, the level that were looking at at future is where theyre not. The contracts they have right now, Revenue Growth is coming off a very small base. So obviously youre going to see that type of growth. Okay . But the contracts they have right now, what we see in last quarter were things put in a year, two years ago. If we look towards the future and how this company is priced, its all about the future. And if you look at the future, they are not even close to being the leader in autonomous. Every single deal that investors got excited about over the past few months with mobileye, intel, volkswagen, or bmw, nvidia has deals with them as well. For anyone to think that mobileye owns the future of autonomous driving is an uninformed person. They are not taking the move were watching as we speak down 2 . That stock is up 24 since the election. That is mobileye. Its up 61 over the last year, reflecting, andrew, the optimism that investors have had not only in this space but in this stock in particular. Well, its optimism that investors have had in the market. And its sometimes just a blind optimism. For people who are detail oriented and just go read about it and understand where it is, you have to give them credit for saying, hey, awe on the mousz is the way of the future but then everyone has just leap frogged them. Its not even close. And you can just look at it in the r d spend. You can look at it in the new install base for where autonomous is going and, like i said, the key thing, nobody knows the Company Better than the ceo, better than the insiders. Look at the size of the company of nvidia and amount of insider sales on a gross basis is significantly lower than we see in mobileye. When the ceo sells more in stock in a year than the company invest in r d investors should be weary. Yep. Andrew, appreciate the time. Thanks for coming to the phone today. Have a great weekend. You do the same. Andrew left of citron. Do you want to take both on as to whether you think that the enough damage has been done to the stock price of nvidia where now its time to maybe get positive again . Maybe atits a neutral. What do you think . This one, i havent seen it perk lating on our heat seeker, judge, as far as to get me excited about it. If i had shorted it at the top i certainly which andrew nailed it, when i certainly would be covering here because i think hes got a lot of profits. But ive been in for just slices of that drop, not the whole drop. So i got no interest. What about moblieye . Weve been talking about this for a while now. The jamie dimon bottom. Have you been in that stock . I have been in that stock and got fortunate in there and missed this big run to the upside. According to what hes talking about now it makes sense that everything he brings up when you see the insider buying, when you see them losing some of that what they had in terms of that space and they owned it and now all of a sudden he says the intels and nvidia of the world takes over, that does make you nervous. Insider selling is just as telling. Heres what else is coming up on the Halftime Report. A bold call