Within his own party. Our Kayla Tausche on the hill with the very latest. Scott, not just some conservatives, it is the Single Largest Group of republican holdouts. They have been the opposition throughout this process and they have just arrived at the white house for a meeting with the president and the Vice President following a meeting with top staff yesterday. Chairman of ways and means, kevin brady, saying earlier this morning that theyre going to have to wait and see how that meeting turns out. That is really what the vote and what the schedule here on the hill is hinging on. I just caught up with pete sessions, the chair of the rules committee convening today. And he said every part of the bill is being negotiated at the white house. Theyre the ones who know the art of the deal. I dont. People here on the hill are trying to do what they can behind the scenes to pull some strings and sell some members. But really the acknowledgment is that everything revolves around that meeting. If you take a look at the schedule for today, that 11 30 meeting is basically the only thing that has not been postponed, delayed or is up in the air. Speaker paul ryans briefing, which was slated for 11 30 this morning, now moves to 3 30 p. M. A republican conference that was slated for earlier this morning is now postponed to the afternoon, as well. And then the final vote on the house floor, still tvd. Im told its a fluid situation. Members dont know exactly when its going to happen. Ive tried to pin down a few of them walking the halls to see when they know or if they know when its going to happen and they do not. They have been told to stay late and theyre going to wait for word from house leadership. Well see what happens. In the meantime, still no cbo score for even the most recent version of this bill, even though the bill is still changing, scott, people say they want to know how much its going to cost. Its unclear whether theyll get that or any news about substantive changes in the nearterm. Back to you. And im going to see how if any way that the changes may be some of the votes a long day ahead for you, as well, kayla. Thanks so much. Pete. Is the rally hanging in the balance because of this vote today . Well, i think part of the rally. I think we have all said that some of whats been going on. But has it been on influence on the markets. But i dont know that we absolutely implode, scott. I think we obviously would sell off. I dont think we absolutely implode. We had the big sell off the other day, that was part of it, 230 some on points. The big t. A. R. P. Vote when it failed, and the dow fell. Try to liken it to that situation. Totally different. Youre talking about liquidity condition, youre talking about the impact on the credit markets, completely different. Listen, i dont believe pete is a macro trader. And thats probably to his benefit. But i think if you are a macro trader, this is your first macro event that you get to trade around. And i think thats where, when you look at the marketplace, the real consequences are going to be on this vote. The market itself, yesterday technology, i was incredibly surprised at how well Technology Held up yesterday. Financials held up again, as well. Financials today are coming back again. So when you go bottoms up and look at the marketplace, you could find opportunities, topdown macro trader, you get skpited about an event like this, the first one of 2017 which has real meaning. I think you will have the market sell off if this assistadoesnt go through. Today is an arbitrary day. Tomorrow, saturday. If you think about it, were a couple Percentage Points off the high, and the market while theres been a lot of rotation under the surface, i think a lot of guys are using this as a barometer to whether or not trump would get tax reform passed. If you look at the trades that have done well since the election, we have had a pretty big reversal in those trump trades. So tax reform measured by the retailers are trading at their lows of when entered into the u. S. Election. You have also the industrial stocks, which have given back a lot of gains, financials have given back about 40 of their gains since the peak post the election. So the trump trades arent working. What are working are the defense sectors of the economy right now. Lets go back down to washington. Our chief washington correspondent, john harwood, is there. John, im looking at an article you just posted where you spoke with a veteran member who points to what you say could be a nightmare scenario for the market. Exactly. Theyre looking back, even though as your colleagues on the panel state correctly, its not comparable to the situation during the financial crisis in the fall of 2008, but members are thinking of it that way. Members saying if this goes down we could lose 1,000 points off the dow. His point, it is a threshold question about the ability of the Republican Party to govern, the ability of donald trump to govern, and thats why members, theyre not caring at this point about whether this has a prayer in the senate. Theyre simply scrambling to get it through the house as a way of putting a floor under confidence around the Republican Party. So a lot of the changes, you know, this white house meeting just ended between the Freedom Caucus and the president and Vice President. Theyre seeking to gut the insurance regulations. The essential Health Benefits part of obamacare. Thats popular on the right. But that will lose you votes among moderate members, and probably doom product in the senate for sure. Now, the question is, what is the effect if it does go down. Whether or not theres a thousandpoint drop in the market. The one thing that was interesting, this member told me, were going to get were going to cut taxes regardless of whether we get health care or not. God created republicans to cut taxes. Well be able to reach an agreement on that. But obviously the health care and other priorities like infrastructure would be very much thrown into doubt if this goes down. Interesting reporting, john. Thanks, john harwood on the hill. So is this all hanging in the balance . A thousandpoint drop potentially for the dow if this does not pass . Do you believe that . No, i dont. In my view that was said solely to scare people into his fellow members of the house, into voting for the bill. So theyre not responsible for the thousandpoint drop. I dont think there is any way you can always be wrong. But consensus is that the market will sell off if it doesnt pass. Consensus is also if it only passes by the skin of its teeth that the market will sell off. So any time the consensus is that strong, maybe it doesnt happen. Heres what i would say, though. If it does sell off, though, with significance, its a major buying opportunity. Because whats going to happen is that youll see them double down to get taxes passed. Because right now, this is a bump on the road. A controversial bump in the road. And the reason why the conservative caucus is against it are apparent to everybody. However, when you get to tax reform, and when you get to cutting tax rates, and i dont think that bill would be as big as everybody says, that thats where the rubber really meets the road. Thats what goes into peoples pockets. Correct me if i am wrong, is whether the agenda from the president gets delayed, jim, or not. So im going to take what you just said baked a lot of the cake already. You dont want to dismantle the whole thing before you get to eat it. The market cares about profit, scott. You know that and i know that. Whats going to drive profits in the year term is a strong labor market. People buy cars, houses, everything. That gets the economy going. Its a Virtuous Cycle and thats whats happening now despite whats going on in the house of representatives. Steve, i hate it when i do this, but i agree with you completely. If the market sells off just wear a tag. If the market sells off, its going to be the mother of all buying opportunities. You want to know why . A lot of people have been selling over the last few months, waiting for exactly this moment. I get clients in all of the time saying the world is going to heck in a hand basket. Theyre ready to put it to work. Give them the opportunity. Absolutely right shortlived. I was looking at u. S. Steel today, the stock down almost 20 , 15 and change. The bank is down 10 . So the trump train has unwound to a very large extent. John harwood, do you have a thought . I do. And i just want to echo the comment that was just made about rates not going down as much as being talked about, down to 20 in that house proposal. You can write it in sharpie, rates Business Rates are not going down to 20 . And the reason i say that is based on conversations in the senate. They believe in the senate, republicans in the senate, that the board adjustment tax in the house is way to risky to take in the economy and the tradeoff between having a corporate rate a few points higher and avoiding the b. A. T. , the senate will take that in a heartbeat. John, its jim. I so hope youre right. The border adjustment tax would be disastrous in terms of unintended consequences. Dont you think trump wants to push that through . This is a guy who regardless of the consequences, does push things through he wants. I think he wants to push something through. Thats what were seeing on health care. Remember, he started out by saying were going to take care of everybody, youre going to have insurance, even if you cant afford it. This house bill is way, way far of that. Its going to dramatically increase the number of people without insurance. What he wants is a win. And at this moment, thats what house members share with him. They want a win, as well. They think its vital. On tax reform, you can get a win without going down to 20 . Weve got a 35 corporate rate now, highest in the world. You can take that down to 30 or 28 , and have either increase the deficit or figure out some other offset. But i believe that there is extremely strong resistance to the border adjustment tax in the senate and that that is going nowhere in that body. Hey, john, its joe. How should we think about the timing here, the longer the vote is delayed, should we expect this will actually pass . The house vote . Yep. No. I think the longer its delayed, the more you suspect its not going to pass. I do think there is a determination i was told this morning that speaker ryan is losing patience with the Freedom Caucus. He wants to dare them to take this down and say, yeah, you want to go home and tell your members that you took down the President Trumps priority . You go right ahead. Theyre counting on the fact they wont do it. You know what, john . To your point, and im just looking right now at the results of a quinnipiac poll, which are just crossing the release from quinnipiac, which says American Voters disapprove 5617 with the health plan with 26 undecided. So to your point, it all depends, perhaps, if you believe the polling thats out there, who do these members want to face more . An angry president or their angry constituents . Well, thats a good point. And, of course, the characteristics of this American Health care act are such that they would hit very hard. A lot of the core trump voters. So look, the safe vote for any member of congress on something highly controversial, especially something that is being whipped together at the last minute, they dont have a score on, the safe vote is always to vote no. Because then youre not going to be responsible for what happens. So i would guess that in the end they put it up for a vote and it goes down. They say they want to vote before members have to go home for the weekend. So if thats the case, i think the prospects are difficult. Now, you know, well see. How what do they have to give away to get the votes and can they still get to 215 . I think it is doubtful at this point. But, you know, were just going to have to watch over the next few hours. Yeah, down to the wire affair. Long day ahead for you, as well. John, thanks. John harwood on the hill. Heres one thing. Just to correct jim. Trump hasnt been able to push through everything he has wanted, because hes not pushed anything through. This is the first legislative action. He doesnt stop trump. Theres no track record. I think what john brought up and the question you asked is actually the paramount question here. Is that trump has his Approval Ratings have sunk, right . Dramatically. At this point, if youre on the fence, your constituency is on the fence, youre not really sure, do you go home to your constituency, which where the Approval Ratings have taken that hit, okay, and face them, or do you align with the president . And thats the issue thats going to keep happening throughout this presidency. Hes trying to make the push. Hes tweeting as we speak for folks to call their representatives and urge them to vote yes. But we have been through it down this path with obama on every piece of legislation. Iranian legislation, that was never going to pass, lastminute. Even obamacare. That was not going to pass and then brought it home in the last minute. I think the biggest overread of this whole thing is tax reform. Suddenly, if he doesnt get this through, hes not going to get tax reform through, right . I mean, i dont agree with that premise. I actually think that this is a very difficult thing. He took on the most difficult thing its a delay though nonetheless. Have we completely forgotten what the earning season told us so far and what moves this market to the up side . Obviously the excitement over what trump is maybe able to do. But if have we forgotten about the earnings season and were about to kick into another one and is that going to be good, bad or indifferent . Are you saying that youre bullish no matter what happens today . I am bullish and on a selloff, a buyer. Its why you buy protection when its cheap, gives you the opportunity to jump in if you missed with your analysis i want to agree with you when youre done, erin. The problem is, all of the companies that have bad results are going to point to all of this morass in washington and we had uncertainty. Thats why consumers avoid those companies. Avoid the ones that blame it on somebody else. Youre not going to hear that from jpmorgan, the financials. So i dont think any of us disagree with the fact that the macro fundamentals havent changed. They remain consistently continuing to improve. The question, though, is how quickly then can the House Republicans pivot to start focusing on tax reform . Theres been a lot of Political Capital spent by both paul ryan as well as by trump over the last few weeks on this health care bill. If they cant get it done, there isnt an agenda right now laid out. The House Republicans want to pivot towards the tax reform, i think. They have to. And during that time a nasty selloff in the market. I think the hold this vote the closer you get to friday, youre really putting yourself at risk from a market standpoint. Does it go down 1,000 . I have no clue. I agree with pete and i agree with everyone else on the desk. Its a buying opportunity. But you hold that vote on a friday and its a no, wow. Thats not exactly thinking clearly about the impact on the markets. You want to have this vote, if you think its going to be a no, on a monday or tuesday. You dont want everybody selling on friday afternoon and going into a long weekend. Thats a recipe for a disaster. I think its a vshape if it does sell off. I dont think looks i can brexit . Exactly. Looks like the trump election . Not that violent on the way. But, yeah, i think what comes into question, then is a strategy of the administration. I know asked myself and others, why didnt they do taxes first . That seems to be the path of least resistance and one you can get some democrats on. Let me frame it this way, then. At what point would you be more cautious then, pete . At what point would your point of view change on where you thought the market could go . Well, you know, we have catalysts constantly in front of us, right . This is the major catalyst were talking about now and then its earnings and then focus on oil and tax reform and repatriation. All of those. There is always a catalyst in front of us. Can you put more cash to work . Because youre sitting 35, 40 cash. I actually last week took off a huge number of positions. Not because im negative. Because they had worked and i wanted to be fresh to be able to look for other things. And ive added stuff since then. Right. And ive taken off positions also over the last week and a half for the same reason. Like mentor, why hang off the last five cents. I kate off, and i havent put it back to work. The key element is, you havent put it back to work. All of us have sold. Nervousness. Im talking about Something Different here. I have sold boeing, time warner and i havent put the money back to work. Because the opportunities arent there. You give me down 5 , ill put it to work. Kum ba yah, i agree. Good stuff. Heres what else is coming up on the Halftime Report. Coming up on halftime. A bold call on American Airlines. The stock down 12 in a month. One analyst says it will more than double. Buy it now. Plus, is fords bad news and the stock drop a great opportunity to get a great deal on the stock . And all next week, the halftime quarterly report. How have our traders done so far this year . Were talking about wins and losses. Success and regret. All next week on Halftime Report. The command performance sales event is here. Experience exciting offers on our most elevated suvs ever. Get up to 2,500 customer cash on select 2017 models for these terms. Experience amazing at your lexus dealer. Itthat can make a worldces, of difference. Expedia, everything in one place, so you can travel the world better. We are back. Its time for the trader blitz. First up is disney. Extending ceo bob igers contract, pete, until july of 2019. That was the one thing everybody was saying negatively about disney. Whats the strategy going forward, iger stepping down. Obviously this extension is huge. I think one stat that is interesting people dont know about disney. We know about the movies and things working well and espn may be not as bad as everybody said. How about the fact their Free Cash Flow almost covers all of the stock they buy