Lets begin by going to some of the most pressing questions that you are facing. Consider all of the things you are dealing with right now. Washington disfunction, geopolitical uncertainty. North korea, First Quarter earnings and Everything Else. Should you buy or should you beware. Trading the macro is difficult to do. We are in what is known as a time correction. We have corrected from march 1st for it to be a deeper price correction. I dont think that comes from a geopolitical event, an economic event. I think it comes from technical risk. What i mean by that is everyone hedge funds, money managers, were talking about moving averages. So technicals right now to me are the biggest ricks. If you go back to february 21st we havent moved since then. The good news is that expectations for infrastructure are now back burner. Allegedly bannon was the guy that was pushing the big trillion dollar plan in the white house and now hes not out the door of the white house, hes out the door of the oval office. In terms of tax, thats been delayed. Those expectations have been muted in the market, however that generational move from fixed income and bonds and equities clearly hasnt happened has us more concerned. Youre making a good point. I would take it a step further and say the expectations for everything seemed to have been backed off. Thats a good thing. But yet why . We were told that the market was up since the election because of all these things that were going to happen. If those things are not going to happen i dont know who told you that. To me that was part of it and we had an economy underneath that was moving along quite a bit. I agree with that, but many people on this network, not just this show, have said were up 15 because were getting x, y, z done. But then Something Else happened below the surface. On the technical side everyone is trying to figure out whats the next 5 up or down and the reality is that beneath the surface weve already had a little bit of a correction that maybe the indexes have been masking by virtue of the fact theyre concentrated into the largest stocks. The big headline last week, you have the major averages finally broke below the 50 day for the First Time Since the election. Beneath the surface, 43 of the s p 500 was below the levels of the election. Half the stocks had taken out those levels and you didnt see it yet because of how big apple and amazon are. I love your point. I think its an important point probably for a documentary or something, which is because everything is indexed, we might mask a lot of weakness in bad companies, but it doesnt matter. Their stocks are going up as well. Is it becoming a self fulfilling proofasy because its an ix dex. The fastest fund flows now are going into new indexes that are multi fact or, multi rule that cap out at 3 to 5 . Apple cant move the index that way. By the way this quarter that just ended was the highest fund flows ever into this new generation. Who are the buyers . You know where kaits coming from. Its coming from the people that have a committee of mbas on the phone with management. I love them very much. Listen, here but heres the key here. If you want the pull back, we havent pulled back that much, but were coming off the second worst week for the market of the year so far. But in the big, bright, boldfaced names you did get a reasonable pull back here. Facebooks off 3. 2 and apples off almost 4 . Googles off almost 4 . Amazon 4. 5 . You do have a mark down in the premium merchandise. If you were looking for high quality growth stories and you felt like the bus left without you, you have them. You have to earn them. Its more than that. Im sorry, pete. Youve seen major dont mess with him. Weve seen major mark downs in certain sectors. Health care, financials, industrials. The steel stocks. This is nothing new. If gyou go back to the market i 14 and 15. Its the churning underneath where youve seen the corrections. Its about the tangible. When you go back and you look at the january earning cycle, we started looking at that quarter, it was phenomenal. The banks leading that whole thing. And then this quarter we are back at earnings. Its a great opportunity for people to see whats going on in the marketplace. The Economic News as well on top of that. Geopolitical, thats always going to be there. All these types of things, the trump agenda, how fast its going to happen, its going to be those ifs. We are getting things that are concrete that we know. Look at the earnings, including today. You look at some of these bank earnings. They are strong and youre Getting Movement out of that. Its back down to 15 from 16. Its a significant drop from where it was. It shows you were in a volatile market. Trump has given us a new gift. He is beating up the u. S. Dollar and hes giving you half your returns in the International Space right now because of the currency correction. The gift of this First Quarter was not domestic markets. It was everywhere else and you did really well. I think the more he beats up the dollar, the better you are being international. I agree. Do you ever watch the show family feud . Absolutely. You get four smart and then the fifth cousin who is like name something that starts with the letter dog and then banana. Where are you going with this . Energy. Energy is that fifth family feud contestant. The guy no one wanted on the show who is bringing down everybody. Were down 7 this year in energy. The rest of the sectors are up 5 , 6 , 7 . If cousin oliver can get his act together, how much more could this market happen . I dont think he can get his act together. Oil is almost 53. Oil is up 4 on the month, but yet the Energy Equity names are down for the month. What is that telling you . Weve lost sensitivity to what the price of oil is doing. The price of oil has recovered, but the market is smart enough to recognize theres a huge obstacle and thats energy earnings. You have north korea sending missiles off every day trying to. Thats bearish oil. But shouldnt that be moving the commodity up . Its anything in the Korean Peninsula as it relates to oil is bearish. It limits demand. It doesnt in real life. It does in the history of oil. How about it hasten demands . If were going to have world war iii, i would assume think about 1998, the crisis in the asian region, oil went to 10 a barrel. Thats coming unglued. Its impacting its impacting the demand. The other side of that argument will be, okay, if bombs are dropping in the Korean Peninsula, how is that bullish for oil. Were going to use 22 Million Barrels a day. Its been going on for decades already. Energy has come out of it. Any time you bought it and hoped for the spike, you get which middle east country has to be turned to glass before the price of oil goes . Saudi arabia. Thats my point. Thats a great point. Well save energy for maybe another show. I want to highlight some stuff you were bringing up are we done with cousin oliver . Five of your favorite fruits. Walnuts. Lets talk about talk about tax season. You highlighted on twitter and we backed it up with data, sell ahead of taxes, buy after taxes. All right. I dont know i dont know if i would phrase it like that. Maybe if i were writing an article i would phrase it like this is tradeable, but its worth bringing up and i liked the cnbc. Com piece on this. What youre looking at here is the two weeks leading into tax day and then i have another slide they made. This is the two weeks after. What youre looking at is market returns. By the way, the seasonal stuff is never like set your watch by it, but i think in years where youre coming off huge gains and there are questions about forward tax policy, you have to think about this is a big factor. Im in the Wealth Management space youre selling your liquid to get cash . Im not doing anything of the sort. Im saying this is what people are doing all over the industry. I talked to ceos. Everyone had big gains last year and a lot of people are using their portfolio to take the money out and pay taxes. A lot of people having gotten off the turnpike. A lot of people are driving home from the holidays. The graphic says that the markets not underperforming. They dont do that well going into april 15th, whatever the tax deadline is, and then the s p 500 tends to gain. Come on, you got to focus on the fundamentals. Theres nothing happening here. Were making the point hear me out. Why was the nasdaq down nine Straight Days starting from the beginning of april . Whats the reason why . Theres not always a reason, but i think you have to look at taxes. Its still up more often than its down. Its not up as often and as much as it is. As it is after. But thats so that this is not launch a hedge fund and trade this each year. There might be one launching. Dont do it. You have to factor in its five times leveraged on grandmas income. Its interesting information and josh follows it. Im saying its not what i do. Were not saying do it. What were saying is this is possibly a proximate reason for why some of the leadership stocks had some weakness over the last two weeks. You need 30 cash your gains. You sell your big names. All right. Lets move on. We have lots more to get to. With stocks down two weeks in a row, advisement to buy the dip if we get returns. What do you do going forward. The chief market technician, the man behind that call, and he joins us on the phone. Were up 100 points on the dow, but are you suggesting that a decline may be eminent for the overall stock market. I think the main point is there is risk to the market should we break kind of the 2320 level in the s p and that would get you back to 2275, which in the big scheme of things is not much of a pull back. Thats about 5 off the highs. We get 5 pull backs nearly every year, but i think the bigger point here is that even with the decline that we saw in the last couple of weeks where you saw some down side extremes that are more consistent with market lows than market tops and a couple of those we can go through. The vicks closed up four Straight Days. There is a little bit of fearinr the last couple of months and thats general a good thing for the markets. That equity call ratio that youre speaking about, but for the nonoptions initiated, what is that signaling to you . It signaled that people are finally reaching for downside protection. And the last time we saw anything like that in that indicator was kind of right around the election lows. So the whole run up through the end of the year and even the early part of this year we didnt see much of that. Its really just an indicator and one of the reasons that we think that maybe were near low than high at this point. Jonathan, i would point out when you talk about raratios, t most important thing people look past is are they buying or selling . Thats a critical thing to know is are these buyers or sellers. Are people using higher volatility to buy premiums. I want to make sure people understand whats really going on within the ratios that were talking about, right . Yeah, absolutely. Thats why were using that one of many indicators. Another ratio that we look is a the trend index. This is the actual volume in the market of declining stocks versus the volume in advancing stocks and we also on last thursday had one of the highest readings in the last several months. There was a lot of volume in the declining stocks and thats another indication that at least some of the come plasensy is coming out of the market a little bit. Why do you think that is . North korea . French elections . Retails . Vix spike, whatever it might be. All of the above and the fact that the market did hit a twomonth low last week. Weve seen some pullback in the financials. Were starting to see prices weaken over the last couple of months and thats finally as the prices have pulled back thats gotten investors to reach for some protection and thats something we havent seen in the last couple of months. Whats your biggest worry right now . The biggest worry i think would be the financials in the sense that theyve pulled back and they really havent found any Long Term Support and theyre giving back a chunk of what they gained off the election. If the relative performance of cocoa and dr. Pepper, why do they look good to you . We think rather than getting cautious on the market, were seeing strong in some of the consumer staples. I think some are showing good trends and youre better off rotating into the defensive names rather than betting against the market. Jonathan, thanks for joining us by phone. Well talk to you soon. Thanks. Heres whats still ahead. The desk debates our calls. Of the day. Plus how to play netflix ahead of earnsings. The share is up 25 over the past year. Mr. Wonderful is here to answer your questions. Tweet us at Halftime Report using the askkevin. The Halftime Report is back in two minutes. Two minutes. Online u. S. Equity trades. You realize the smartest investing idea, isnt just what you invest in, but who you invest with. What . Pony neighing] hey gary. Oh. Whats with the dogsized horse . Im crazy stressed trying to figure out this complex trade so i brought in my comfort pony, warren, to help me deal. Isnt that right warren . Well, you could get support from thinkorswims inapp chat. It lets you chat and share your screen directly with a live person right from the app, so you dont need a comfort pony. Oh, so what about my motivational meerkat . Inapp chat on thinkorswim. Only at td ameritrade. Theres a lot of action to begin your week. Lets hit our calls of the day. Mcdonalds, upgraded to outperform. Theyre big move into mobile payments. I cant believe youre coming to me on this. Its exciting. First of all, the stock technically looks just ridiculous. It goes up almost every day. Just been absolutely on fire. Wells is making the case that the new valuation range is 130 to 145. I actually agree with their premise that being first mover, having the best app and having the best order on your phone, walk in and pick it up system is going to be a big advantage. Im not saying the other chains wont figure it out. Im saying theyre going to capture the audience that wants that and thats a growing audience. Tens of millions of people who do not want to make eye contact with someone behind a counter. The starbucks app is magic. Theres no way you can make the case it does not increase usage. If mcdonalds gets this right before burger king, wendys, its going to be a huge advantage. I agree with what wells fargo had to say and the stock looks good. Next up, eli lily down grade to underperform. A way to say sell. The stock is cut to equal weight after the delay of the arthritis medication. Its a 4 move. This stock is overvalued and has been overvalued. Its going to take another year, but the point is that these stocks trade like biotech stock, but if bio tech fell, im not attracted to these names answers i dont think trump is down coming after them. Apple, its targeted raised 11 . I continue to hold on to it. One of the most important things, they talk about the toshiba deal and all this that we know already, but the other side is a lot of people will argue whether or not apple continues to be able to grow and accelerate the growth with the services end. I think they do and i think thats something thats the focal point going forward. Thats the real call here. The price target is low. I think there are numbers higher that are more accurate. 155, right . They raised it two points. They barely moved it. Its like doing surgery on a fly. That would be hard. Some people do it. All of a sudden there is a big story thats getting no attention with apple is they tried to buy toshibas memory chip business. Does anybody here think that would be a negative or positive for apple . It would be the biggest deal apple has ever done. It wouldnt change the story. The story at apple is services are more than 10 at this company. People are using more memory and more services and those are margins are obscene. Theyre incredible. We pointed this out on power lunch. Apples Service Business is bigger than facebooks entire business. Right. You do that and you do a great job with that. Thats why you stay in this name for the rest of the year, its going to keep delivering every quarter. Lets focus on ford. Positive on the stocks saying shares are too cheap and may end up being a fiesta for investors. The car story is over. I cant like this name. I really dont. I think all you have now is global competition. The whole detroit car story is difficult. I think margins go down here. I cant understand why i would add this to my portfolio. Good balance sheet. Stable dividends. Valuation looks good. Valuation looks inexpensive. What does that mean . December of 2013, gm posted the high. July of 2014, ford posted the high. Weve had peak autos ever since. Theyve been the cheapest stocks in the dow for almost a decade. Is anybody buy this name . No. You have so many cars coming off lease in the big bubble caused by low rates and the lease and subprime lending, thats suppressing which means the difference between a used car and new car prices is substantial so that means fewer new car sales. Millennials are going to want to own a car. I dont know. Even it doesnt mean theyreg to give these Companies Good margins. That chart is really ugly. All the hedge funds its a nasty looking chart. The thing with this is if something has changed in the outlook, you will know it. The share price will tell you. Theres a new outlook. Theres something new coming for these companies. What the share price is telling you is that the too cheap argument has been wrong because its always been too cheap and until something changes im not sure why you want Something Like this taking up your portfolio. The massive capital eaters and i think thats why we debated it. Hes rolling over. Hes more gm. Hes a gm guy. I like that company. I dont think that story is different. I like it better than the ford story. Why wouldnt you go into Something Like a magnau where youre getting global exposure. Go where the gdp growth is and the china and india story. This is not a ford story. Where are they based . All over. Where are the headquarters. They started in canada, but theyre all over now. You have to think big. It is big. Up next, the netflix seeing nice gains this year. Very hotly traded stock. Kevin is answering your investment questions. If you want them read and answered on air, tweet us at askkevin. If those words dont mean anything to you, dont worry. Before the break, lets get a check on the dow. Every dow stock but chevron and exon are h