A lot of viewers enjoying the Reggie Jackson photo bomb here with bob. Thank you very much. With all of that, lets get over to the judge and the half. Welcome to the Halftime Report. Im scott walker. The nasdaqs moment of truth. Over the next 48 hours, with two major events could very well determine where that record setting index goes from here. Key earnings from apple and facebook, will they be good enough to keep tech flying high . With us for the hour today, joe turnover, stephanie link, josh brown, john najarian. We begin with the nasdaq. Apple itself hitting an all time intraday high. How many of these two key earnings reports are going to dictate whether the nasdaq and tech can keep rolling . Huge. Very huge. Let me throw out a stat to you real quick. Last year at this time, apples straddle, thats the combination of the call and put, were trading for almost the same price its trading for now. Difference is last year we were going to it with a 104 price on apple. Now its a 147 or 148 price tag. So, in other words, the amount of premium that people are putting on this is way too small, in my opinion. Just like people talk about the vix all the time. Oh, its so cheap right now, and it is. There is no reason not to be hedging apple into this event tonight because i think theyre pricing way too little into the potential movement. But is it going to be a market mover . I think it is. And if youre somebody who is way long, a lot of tech stocks like i am, youre somebody who is hedging right now. A lot of this josh hinging on where the nasdaq goes from here. It doesnt seem like theres much margin for error when youre talking about the nasdaq, which its a new record high again today. Nasdaq, 100, hits a new record high today been and much of that is because these large cap techs and otherwise that have carried the water. Without a doubt. Tech is very important to the s p. Its set on its highest correlation and that makes sense because of the largest. And certainly apple is the biggest stock. So i think theres some read through there. But there are also periods where apple does nothing and the market rips higher. There are periods where apple rallies and the market languishes. Its not quite one to one linear relationship between the two. Bigger picture here, scott, ask im long apple. What i want to say is this is now a Company Going into its first return to Revenue Growth quarter. The last three quarters were all down. And the expectations are not crazy high. Talking about 52 million phones, which is 1. 5 growth year over year. On the revenue line, 53 billion would be approximately 5 growth versus the march quarter last year. And then when you think about what we really want to talk about, which is june quarter fwiedance, 45 to 46 billion in revenue, call it a 7 to 8 year over year growth. If they can do that, in the absence of this being, a, a christmas quarter or, b, a new phone launch quarter, i think the street will be happy. Even despite the fact this is the first time were going into an apple quarter with an alltime record high stock price since going back to 2015. Raise that same kind of question, stef, about tech and the nasdaq overall, the margin for error when it comes to apple given the stocks at a new alltime intraday high again. The numbers still better be good. Theyll be probably good. I dont know if theyre good enough. And maybe you see a little bit of weakness on the quarter on the print. But i think it gets bought pretty quickly. New record high on market cap, i should mention, too. 775 billion. Its up 27 yeartodate. But it still trades a 15 times forward estimate. Tt quarter doesnt meet the High Expectations and it pulls back i think people buy it because theyre buying it for the fall launch. I dont think this quarter is going to be that material at all. I really dont. And maybe inline and slightly better or worse. But i dont think theres going to be a ton of movement because, again, i think the real thing in this story is the fall launch. So i dont even think maybe guidance is all that important. I do think theres going to be a theme, though, and thats higher commodity costs, higher component costs versus asps, which should be higher because of selling through of the seven plus which is 35 of the iphone sales. So 7 plus has been better. Youll see better asps to offset these higher costs. Again, i dont think theres going to be a big deal on this one because were all waiting for second half right. We referenced, joe, what tech has done. And apple itself reference is up more than 27 yeartodate. But its certainly not alone. Amazon, 26. Alphabet, 18. 5. Facebook, 33 which reports tomorrow and theres microso soft. And you left out alibaba. I just wonder how long can this continue . Were going back to the question from yesterday. Do investors need a reality check . Is this the moment where the s p finally breaks out because of apple and facebooks earnings above 2400, which initiates the next light of this technical move higher. I think that is a very real possibility. I think right now globally, you have sovereign wealth funds with a tremendous amount of capital trying to beat a world in which were getting incredibly low rates still, 2. 35 for a tenyear. A lot of funds flowing right now. The technology now that we know protectionism has been removed from the equation and were whack to the globalization theme. Technology is first and foremost on the mind of we get a reality check every single day in the form of ifa, which is the global stock market today, new 52week high. New 52week high in emerging markets which by the way just had a nasty twoweek shake out, down 4 quick. Came all the way back, new high as im talking. Thats your reality check, that we are not in a fang market. Were in a global breakout and Economic Data is confirming it, by the way. I was going to suggest when you discuss technology, maybe the reality check off some of these high flying stocks that have done so well. Maybe the reality check isnt a negative connotation to it. Maybe its the reality of these stocks as mark cuban told squawk on the street, can keep going up because theyre at the forefront, applied learning webs Artificial Intelligence he said that, but he picked up the fallen angels. I mean, you know, the two stocks in particular, judge he talked about the alphabet and and gopro. Apple. He jumped into gopro and as he said, i got flushed. I took a flyer on it, i got flushed. Weve all done it. He made a brilliant trade apparently in twitter where he jumped on this just as they were getting that deal with bloomberg signed up and so forth and the video side twitter jumped on that news yesterday. So he bought the fallen angels in that regard, judge. He wasnt in there chasinging. In amazon, yes, i guess so. He talked up google and talked up apple. He talked up facebook. If you have a view when he was asked specifically, can these gains continue . Referencing those big tech stocks specifically. He said yes, and the reason why and i agree with them. Theyre on the forefront of what hes been talking about now. And i think that is core hole holdings for mr. Cuban. Mark, ring us up or ping me and well get you on the market later today. Well talk about that because i think hes a holder of facebook, of alphabet, of amazon and apple. I think hes a longterm holder of those wsh occasionally a trader of Something Like a netflix. But i think this one, twitter, thats a flyer just like gopro was. Twitter is working out for him and marvelously. Here is what he said. Here is mark cuban on twitter where he bought the stock. I started buying twitter recently because i think they finally got their act together with Artificial Intelligence. Its been beaten up so long. Twitter, the key to Artificial Intelligence is data. And twitter hadnt been able to harness the data to be smarter on how they deliver tweets and how they use information. How they deliver ads. Now they started to hire the right here. Theyre starting to get smarter. You said that in the results you get rather than it being chronological. Youre seeing things that are relevant that make a difference . I bought a couple million shares, he said. Josh, you own this stock and you managed to stay with it through all the turbulence. Yeah. I did want buy a couple million shares, but im long the name. Look, i think theres a case to be made that with the last time we were up here at 18 approaching 19, its because we thought there was a takeover in the works and they were shopping. So there could have been. So maybe it was justified. It didnt work. This time, everyone knows theres no takeover because anyone that had an interest saw their books and said no. The fundamentals maybe are finally catching up. Thats my point. They reported a quarter, not a great quarter, but not terrible. Mais, daus, surprised the up side. Thats the up side. B, engagement was better. Lastly, they had their equivalent of the up fronts where they were talking background what they were going to do with video and advertising and the reception was extremely positive on the part of all of the stakeholders. Content creators, people who are going to spend money on this platform for advertising. And to tech, tech is not allowing you to keep it in this box. These are technology stocks. This is what they do. Google has a stake in 23 and me. Theyre collecting genetic data from all of us. Theyre matching that up with what were doing in our Gmail Inboxes and theyre going to come up with innovative way toes Market HealthCare Products to the people that probably have the highest likelihood of neegd it. You can call that a Technology Company if you like, but google sees that as a health care initiative. Facebook is not allowing itself to be cut in the box, either. Now you have companies with limitless access to apple, very few competitors in their core business. Fwoogel, alphabet, i own it. 27 times earnings. The s p since 1990 has traded at 23 times earnings. So goingel should be 27 times earnings . So why do you have to go to twitter, then . If you have a 20 multiple on alphabet. Its growing 23 , if you had a 30 multiple on facebook and its growing ad revenues at 43 , these are real businesses witness proven businesses and theres operating leverage at both companies to continue thats a good question. And its such a difficult story. Its not cheap. And they have yet to modify maybe the story is starting to turn. You know what . Ill see it when i believe it. They have had a hard time monetizing what they had. I dont think that is an easy proposition, especially when you compare it to these other companies that are real businesses that are proven leaders and that are winners and likely stay winners. I think thats a good point. I think theres something to be said for the idea that when you look at a scepter, maybe you only want to concentrate on the leaders. But thats assuming you know leadership roles are going to persist and i dont maybe even another way of doing it is to look at it like a bar bell and to say i want to concentrate the bulk of my investments and this scepter and this geography in the winners, but then i want to have Something Else that gives me the chaps to joe outperform or gives me the chance to own something before i can list ten other Technology Companies before twitter that i own that will give you the stephanie, this is america. There are 85 types of mustard on the shelf when you go to the super market. Im just saying, i think twitter is a very hard stock to own right now especially when you have these other ones that are doing quite well it will be interestieasier t. You thought about buying it. Im going to agree with josh on this one. The reasons being is the name that stephanie is talking about, the opt iics on those, they are phenomenal investments. Theyre core port foal your holdings. When you look at twitter, its a trade. Its someone like mark cuban going out and looking to create alphabet in his portfolio. For me, the fundamentals never suggested getting in the name. Now, i see stable zalgz this terms of reporting it didnt sound to me like he said it was for a trade. I think it is for a trade. I can it is for a trade. Let me finish. Beyond the earnings turn youre witnessing, youre getting the right people buying it. And most importantly, let the price action. Let the price action dictate i didnt see an earning eggs turn, though, joe. I saw revenue down 121 year over year. Negative operating leverage. Yeah. I didnt see that turn. Stabilization which is the i saw stabilization in the core more trade. But i did not modest growth and maus. But i didnt see that surge that you need to see because whenever anybody goes to whoever theyre Advertising Firm is and says, i need some exposure, where do you think they buy . We all know. Google and facebook. Thats where they buy. Snapchat. No one is suggest snap chat is where i buy. Sold to you on snapchat. But im saying nobody is suggest i say sold to you on that. No Mature Company at all is buying on snap. False. True. False sflp true. Show me. It has a small percentage of the ad budget right now. It has Single Digits versus bobby, thats thats my hairline. So half the fortune 500 right now currently experiment, snap. But with what size of thats not what you said originally. What i said was nobody serious is advertising on snap. And im saying half the fortune 500 are currently advertising on snap. And getting theyre getting make goods because theyre not getting the numbers that theyre supposed to get. I think it is an incredibly complicated conversation. Its simple. This is about a trade. Mark cuban buys twitter for a trade. Do the metrics line up for you to step in and buy twitter for a trade for the first time in an incredibly long time . Yes. I dont think josh has owned twitter all the way down for a trade. Its more for an investment. Ive traded it, though. Ive been in and out of some of any shares. Joe, i agree with you. I dont think theres any reason to sit here and say now is the time that its the longterm hold of the century. Probably it can run into the 20s and fall right back down. I dont see stabilization and to johns point, i dont see fundamentals turning. Thats not what were talking about. What were saying is that there was an estimate for Monthly Average users, daily afghanistan users. The street has been battered every time they got excite bd that and disappointed. This time they werent disappointed. Maybe to joes point its enough i want to get another stock. That is amd. That stock is having its worst day since 2005. A lot of talk today about margin disappointment, guidance disappointment. They had a loss that was expected. What do you do with this . High expectations, though. Joe. Incredibly High Expectations for the stock. Given what the stock the stock is up like 400 . Right. Okay. So youre coming in with huge expectations. Now you get a bad report and its the complete opposite of twitter. Twitter, you have low expectations, it comes out, you dont get worse than expected. The same thing for amd. Incredibly High Expectations. You dont get the report youre looking for. And the freed cash flow is lousy. Now when the analyst notes everyone is talking about intel coming in. Presenting pricing pressure. I think what do you do . I bought some. So i brought my average cost into the middle. Its fine. Look, i looked at the report and i obviously wasnt happy with it. But i dont think management has made any mistakes. Theres a 33 margin versus 34. And if you look at why it was makeshift, they had more game consoles go out the door than pcs. The real reason new investors are coming to this name, though, is the rise in chip. The rising chip does not ship this quarter. The next report we get will be the first full quarters worth of data on how the server chip is doing. The vega chip is the graphic side. So i look at this like exactly what joe said. Expectations are very high. I bought it today, too. Just saying. Full disclosure. So you you didnt wait a couple of days. By the way, they were in line. A question about disastrous quarter, its fine. It wasnt a disastrous quarter. It was guidance and in some cases margins that some investors deem as disastrous. I can live with that, though. Thats not a great response to earnings that were okay. Sflit was a terrible response. The the president , by the way, is speaking at the white house moments ago. Aman is there. The president was in the rose towarden a few moments ago. He was there with the air force academy fblg team. The event was to present this with the commander in chiefs trophy for their success on the football field, but the president took the opportunity in front of the Television Cameras to hammer home a point about something that clearly bugs him. He does not like the narrative that democrats won and trumps team lost in the recent negotiations surrounding the government shutdown. That spending bill which we expect to see vote odd this week. The president laid out a number of big wins, he said, for his team and fop for conservatives in the build. Here is a bit of what he had to say. We achieved the single largest increase in border security, funding in ten years. So we have more moep money now for the border than weve had in ten years. The democrats didnt tell you that. They forgot. The president there clearly upset with democrats claiming up on capitol hill that they won this negotiation. We also hear from Mick Mulvaney earlier today who scheduled a hastily scheduled Conference Call with just about 15 minutes notice to reiterate a number of the same points and to hammer home the idea that this white house feels that it won that negotiation. They clearly do not like the perception of weakness or loss here and they want conservatives up on capitol hill to understand what is in this bill for them as they go ahead and move forward with a vote on it, which we expect to come later this week, skom scott. Eamon, thank you so much. A lot more ahead on the halftime record. One of wall streets most respected retail watchers Sees Opportunities in the sector. Shes making a call on the big picture, next. Plus, bill ackmans big move in london. First, our partners on the fallout after one week when ford and gm see big declines and other sales like we saw today. The s p Automobiles Group down. 62