One that moved stocks, if not the markets themselves. Theres one stock on the move today, apple, another all time high. You know, josh, this is becoming a recuring theme. Market opens, apple hits a new high. Qs hit a new high. Heres whats interesting about apple that i dont think a lot of people have proseccoed. Apple made a market cap all time high in february 2015. And then even though price continued higher eventually, its not until friday that apple repeated and made a new market. Thats because of all the buybacks, so it really took two years for apple to become worth more than it was in february 2015 and now were through that level, 790 billion, the most astonishing thing i could point out, this was a stock that is now up 31 year to date. Far outpacing year to date anything going on with the dow, s p, people thought this was a consensus. It will do what the market does. Very, very far from it, my friends. Wyche, this is becoming get in the way of this at your pe l peril. You came to that realization six, eight weeks ago. Youfr added. Theres no trade ever, but as you go through the risk, the whole spectrum, this comes close, so what can happen . The next quarter, throw away quarter, because new iphone wont be out then, so the only question you have to request ask yourself is how much upside will be left. How much has been brought forward . I dont think much because i think the market is going to the market 50 years ago, now, the nifty five to ten. Apple being one, alphabet, netflix, amazon being the other, so you have to bring those to perform. Well see the street, just increase their price target to stay involved. The numbers to wyches point, but they better be good for the new impb iphone. Tim cook said he thinks people are delaying their puchs, so that is increasing the anticipation, so when the numbers come out, the numbers are going to be massive and they sure better be with everybody and their brother coming out. For that quarter, i think were looking at 85 million con secensus on iphone. Anything above 90, thats going to be fantastic and propel the stock higher. I think steve and josh bring out good points. Its almost as if these five stocks are becoming their own index. I read a note from Goldman Sachs suggesting evaluations a bit high right now. I dont know if thats a strategy you want to align yourself with now because clearly, the Services Business is accelerating. Youre an miss tating whats Going Forward in the iphone. Going back to joshs thoughts on the market cap, the price of the stock was around 133 at this point. That gives you a great point of reference to stay in this name, stay long and thats the move i think. This name and the other at a 790 billion market cap, 250 in cash give or take and i understand theres debt there. Just arguably, its like a third of the market cap is cash they can do things with. If not. Continue to repurchase, maybe raise the dividend. In the meanwhile sh you have buffett this weekend talking about apple and google. Hes referring to these as capital light investments. Meaning they deserve a higher multiple because they are not as cash intensive as the types of businesses that berkshire has e invested in, where you need enormous amounts of capital just to an rate. Hes b poining o these new businesses operating in a very different way. I know in its crazy expensive. Should we be scrutinizing the market maore than we are in ter of the leadership . It was to narrow before and here we are again, we talk about apple, facebook, netflix, consolidates just below record highs. Its a function frankly of how the market trades. On irrelevant value. We look at where the value cheap versus where its expensive. I was reading numbers today. This is the best revenue, best quarter of revenue and earnings beats that weve seen in 13 years. Can you imagine if we get something out of washington, we go into hyper drive. We are so starved for Revenue Growth. The earnings were beating left and right for the last several since 2011, Revenue Growth up 9 and you get a company like apple that we heard about china, china was a little bit weak. Petes done an excellent job talking about india, up 20 . And lock at where we are. You want to sell the market with a vix below ten now . Below ten. Thats a cop ver sags in and of itself. Lets stick with apple. Drexel hamilton raising its price target to 22 a share. Its not the highest target on the street. Brian white is the analyst behind the call. Brian, welcome back to the Halftime Report. Hi, scott. Youre being bullish is not a new story, but thousand, more so, why . I think what were starting to see her are the dark clouds around this valuation on apple, which has been with this company for several years start tog part wiis, so sentiment is starting to change and we have four pi pillars Going Forward. Iphone 8. Valuation 11 times x cash ch capital return. We heard about it last week, but its not done and new innovations on the horizon. So i think the market is starting to get it. But its still early stages. I think theres plenty of upside left. Is that one of the most underrated stories here, the capital urn, the dividend is big. The buybacks are bigger than people even realize. Theyre going to return 300 million by march 19. But i think if repatriation policies go through, i think they could do a little bit more and that would most lickly be around the dividend, so i dont think the capital return story is over. Remember, apple generates 50 to 60 billion in Free Cash Flow a year. Yeah, you got to hope that the eight is really big, right . Tim cook speaking on the most recent earning call saying weve seen a delay. We think its because of all these rumors about when were going to launch a 8. They better live up to the hype, right . It should be a great launch. Now, you know, we were just in taiwan and china a couple of weeks ago. And i can tell you, the buzz around there, whether its a supplier, whether its a competitor, whether its customers buying iphone 8 is is very, very high. And the last time i saw it this big was with the 6 in the fall of 2014. Now, whats interesting, were only modeling about 14 iphone growth. For physical 17. And if you remember the iphone 6 drove about 37 unit growth. So our numbers are pretty conservative going into what i think will be a big cycle here. Yeah, what if estimates and expectations are too big relative to china . I think chinas starting to turn the corner, i really do. They grew over 80 in china in fiscal 15, then fell off in 16. This year, theyre still going to decline, but fiscal 18 will pick up. I think the demand for iphone 8 is going to be very, very strong and remember, weve got this massive tail wind. Not just from china, but its coming from elsewhere in asia and eventually, india, the rise of the middle class. 80 of these people entering this class are coming from asia. Sxwl apples carrying a lot of weight today. 152 a share. Up two and a third percent. Thanks for coming b on. Talk to you soon. Over the next several hours, this conference will be packed with attendees. Leslie picker will be following all the money here today at sohn. Theyve already started. The ideas are rolling. Theyre already moving mashlgts. We saw the next wave presenter, emerging managers look to be part of the bigger presentation in the future. We had some interesting picks so far. One zylinks. It has a 70 upside in the future and another one that moving, gigamon, which does network trafficking. Thats up quite significantly, not just because david thomas recommended it, but because elliot management happened to disclose a 15 stake this morning. One of the most exciting things, bill ackman taking the stage later. David einhorn as well. Ackman said hes got a couple of new investments, can can only wonder if this is going to be the stage where he unveils them. One would hope that would be the case. Whether he discloses one or both picks, thats something well be watching and this is the perfect platform for him to do Something Like that. Well wait and see. Going to be an exciting day. I know youll be following the money. Well hear from you in a little bit. We have a lolt more ahead from the Halftime Report. Next on live from the sohn Investment Conference. Brad is one of the biggest in s investors in united airlines. Get his thoughts on the problems, the solutions, the ceo and the stock. Hes also a major investor in another company with trouble, uber. And later, Keith Meister fresh off revealing his big surprise stock pick. The Halftime Report, live from the Investment Conference is back in two minutes. Trz i count on my dell Small Business advisor for tech advice. With one phone call, i get products that suit my needs and i get back to business. But weve got the get tdigital tools to help. Now with xfinitys my account, you can figure things out easily, so you wont even have to call us. Change your wifi password to something you can actually remember, instantly. Add that premium channel, and watch the show everyones talking about, tonight. And the bill you need to pay . Do it in seconds. Because we should fit into your life, not the other way around. Go to xfinity. Com myaccount. Welcome back live Halftime Report from the sohn conference in new york city today. Were joined by brad, his firm focuses on travel opportunities investing in public and private companies. Well talk about both today. Welcome back. Good to see you. Our annual right of passage here. Lets talk about united, because thats the company youre most closely identified with, at least in our eyes. What do you make of whats going on there . The events have been b frustra frustrating. But i think the company has done the right things now. Theyve got arpd to the right apology, too late, but they got it right. Theyve moved forward. By raisinge ining the limits to 10,000, were moving beyond the situation that happened with dr. Dao and frankly, i think its accelerating the trends at the company to put the consumer first. Was there a time when you were questioning whether oscar moou munos should remain ceo . I think hes the most disappointed with how this was hannmanaged. We have confidence in oscar, but more importantly, we built an Incredible Team you know, at the board level. Scott kirby. Andrew levi, et cetera, so the its not just one person running united. Immediately after this happened, you did not sound as though you were 100 in munos corner. You talk ed to the company, tol them how upset you were. You tweeted im disgusted how police treated a united passenger last night in chicago. I have no doubt the Company Shares these views. Thats the important point. I had talked to the company. I thought they did share my views. I thought they were clumsy in how they responded to this, but oscar made it clear, how he, too, was disgusted but now, hes made the right steps to put p customer first. When we look back, there may be a silver lining, which is a company that wasnt doing the right things by customers in every instance is really reexamining all the things theyre doing, whether the fees theyre charging customers or whether its denied boardings. I think it will all improve. He wont be chairman now. Is that the right move . Oscar raised his own hand and said i want to voluntarily leave it up to the board. They get to decide whos chairman. Weve been on record from the beginning. I dont think its a good idea to have the same person as ceo and chairman of united, so i was happy to see him take that step. Are you still all in on the Airline Business . We had buffett on for three atlee hours. A brutal business. He was being positive because he said it used to be suicidal. Ipg charlie monger said itd well. It well. This was a business that for 80 years was a really bad business and now, due to the consolidation, charlie said it looks more like the railroad business. It trades at less than half the multiple of the railroad business. For an industry with 20 ebitda margins. Theyre going to have to prove over the next three years they have durability of earnings and they can eliminate the volatility of the industry. We think they will, but the jury is out. And not to add too much, but in fairness, buffett mongers first exposure was u. S. Air, they thought long and hard an came back to it. No matter what theyre saying is tremendous. Let me ask you a question. So, ive looked at your phone quite a bit. Track records phenfphenomenal. You invest in Software Solution and in trouble. Or bits, et set rachlt youve got a unique advantage point. What do you see whats going on . I see these big trends around electronics, the shift of the cloud. All these trends are accelerating. We have 2 billion supercomputers in our product. The thing thats hard is to model out reaccelerating growth. Everybody on wall street models out deaccelerating growth and so, if you get the edge and you can model out growth at amazon reaccelerating, at google, maintaining growth over 20 for a longer period of time than everybody else, then you can make an Investment Case they missed. We see those trends reaccelerating. Take offline to online. Over the last 12 month, amazon has added 40 wl of retail sales. Tas more than the next 50 companies combined. You said in a tweet Proof Positive that online retailers are in full on panic mode. Is that code for im short a lot of names as im long amazon . We dont talk about our shorts, but im glad you follow me on twirt. Thats where you come on. Your best new se s comes out wi twitter. Anybody observing whats going on in the world today, weve had nine retail bankruptcies this year. The malls are under pressure. This is not linear, right . The reacceleration is changing the game. The largest commerce category in the world is travel. Its a trillion dollar commerce category. Alibaba is not in it. Amazons not in it. We have a global duopoly between expedia and price line. I think 10 of the way there. 10 of the shift has occurred today, so long runways for these companies. Wide runways and now, we have competitive motes. Is it a positive for stock investors in general for the economy for Corporate America that every one of these industries seemed to want to end up in a winner take all mode. How does a Smaller Company up . I believe were also happy for investors, invest in the category, right . If you believe its going to be a big category where investors in price line, expedia, in air bnb, i think the category will more than double over the next three to four years. Lets talk tech. It is as we said, you identified with the airlines, most exposed sector is technology. What do you make of whats happened with the nasdaq. Is this justified . Is is it, does it feel good for the market . We did an analysis of 2011, 71 of all internet value was in the top five companies. That was the same as it was in 2005. By 2016, it was 91 of all the value in internet was in five global companies. It makesceps to me. And honestly, i think its going to continue in that direction because the only people on the planet who can do Machine Learning and ai scale are these large platforms. We were investors in dynamic, twilio. Theyre built on top of the cloud. Looking at them as utilities, theyre renting the data, the capability for other businesses to be built. As a follower of the u. S. Economy, i think the productivity gains of the next ten to 20 years on the back of the cloud as every Industrial Company moves to the cloud, i think this means hundreds of millions of dollars for incremental airlines as an example. They havent even begun to transition. Is there a danger as we saw with the bells with the last utility, they break them up. Under the trump administration, which is very business friendly, probably doesnt happen with amazon and google, have such motes around their businesses. We know whats happened in europe. Will that happen here . As a country, weve looked unfavorably on unnatural monopolies and favorable on natural monopolies. Theyre getting there through innovation. I hope they dont break these companies up. As you said, compute and storage utilities, i think this is going to enable massive not the least of which are the Industrial Companies that can lever and take advantages of the massive investments that googles made, akso amazon. What do you make of mark cuban jumping in on twitter, saying theyre finally sort of getting Machine Learning and all the trends where technology is going. That first. And then snap. I always follow mark cuban, whatever he invests in. The interesting news to me, the bloomberg deal. Ive always thought of twitter more like bloomberg. I think it would make sense for those two business to be together as an xal pm, but im not chasing after. Youre not in twitter. Were not. What was the second question. Snap. Its an interesting one. The basic investment these es on the buy side in snap is that montization will increase on all these users. It will follow a Facebook Like trend line and if it does, its goirng to be worth tens of billions more than it is today. So youre not an investor. Were not. Is is social media exciting to you as a place to invest . Sure. A few years ago, facebook, were multiple year investors in facebook. One of our biggest, biggest returns after a firm. I view social as an integral part of the fabric of all these companies. Ultimately, its about do we have the data that allows us to provide an intelligent assistant many your pocket, in your home before you ask it. There are only five companies that can do that. Only five that have the data. Elon would say its google first. Jeff bezos says there will be multiple assistance. Lets bring it full circle in a sense. Unit ed at the top of our conversation, being scrutinizeded like never before. As is uriber, which you are an investor in. Obviously, you have a high threshold for pain. Youve been an investor for a long time. Weve been investing in Technology Companies like uber for 15 years and when i look over that history, theres always volatility. In high growth companies. And its hard for management to scale these companies without hiccup hiccups. We bill bild our firm on the back of longterm views about technology trends. The