Since late april. Our question is this, whether a market that has largely ignored the controversy in washington and if it is finally paying attention what that means to yo your money. Kevin, people have been surprised at the complacency of the market. Is today a sign all of that is about to change in a big way . I dont think so. This is just the pause that refreshes. Weve been waiting for a correction like this. Its not a big deal. This whole thing with trump and the circus around it is to boil down to, he said he said, a memo versus what he said to him at a din r, whatever, its going to go away. Im extremely bullish about the markets and i took this opportunity today to buy mid cap stocks. Ron . Im going to take the other side for a while. Even before he was elected, this was not going to result in a good outcome. As i said yesterday, remain among those who believe this president will have an attenuated term in office and this is going to get far worse before it gets better and i do think the market is starting to recognize theres increasing risk of that. Its been reflected in the dollar now. Only now is it being reflected if stocks. At some point, enough is enough. The market is only going to put up with this, the noise and and bombshell satisfactories for so long before it begins to react. Look at the vix today . P. The wound hurts when you first rip off the bandage, then hurts less when you go on. It hurts more today because this is comey coming at the president saying he asked me m me to stop the Flynn Investigation f. Thats what i lot of this is today. Is this peek insanity out of washington, d. C. . It could be because that 23 pop youre talking about, but you look at the rest of the futures going out there, means bottom lib lirng much higher in the bottom end of the curve. People will be selling aggressively. So if we dont see a continuation of this, then this vix will evaporate and go back down into the 11 range. Jack welsh said impeachment proceedings would quote blow the market away. Were a long way from that and no one is is suggesting were getting close to that point, but it is a sign of the uneasyness the market seems to be having today even if its just a start with d. C. I disagree. The last impeachment proceedings we had were in 1998 and we had an explosive 24 month period for stocks immediately following. Thats number one. Whos to say the market wouldnt prefer pence because you have twothirds of the distractions out of the way. Nobody thinks that hes up on the phone late at night talking to russians and maybe you have a better shot at tax reform under president pence, so whos to say thats not an upside catalyst. Three, i dont think theyre going to impeachment proceedings with nothing more than a memo was they only get one shot at it and if it doesnt work, so theyre not going to woman with Something Like that, theb then begin this whole process. Theres got to be more. We havent seen it yet, maybe it doesnt exist. And last but not least, i dont really view todays activity as abnormal. I view every day leading up to today as ab norral. We made a new high last july in the s p and since that day, thats 215 days ago, folks, since that day, we have not had a 5 correction. Thats almost a year trading within pennies of record highs. That is the aberration, thats not typical. Its much more typical we get 5 pullbacks. Were 1 is from the high and saying the market is freaking out about impeachment . Totally disagree. Eamon, no comment from the white house i saw you say earlier and we did have comments from paul ryan. In support of President Trump. Thats right. He said today that he just doesnt worry about things he cant control and suggesting that he cant control all of this drama coming out of the white house right now. You guys were talk iing about whether were at peek insanity here in washington, d. C. I dont know what the market p implications are of that, but id hesitate to say we are here in washington. John mccain put it well the other day when he said this is a centipede dropping shoes and theres a lot that keep dropping. One of the concerns for this white house is that what is in those memos is something we dont know. We dont know whether there are tapes of these conversations and we dont know today whether putin has tapes or tributes of whatever it was that donald trump said to his officials last week. There are a lot of unthoens that can drive headlines. Whether the market can process that is for you guys to debate, but theres more to come here in terms of the news cycle out of washington. If there is more to come, how can you remain so positive that none of it is going to matter . Its not because at the end of the day, people are getting used to this president s style. Hes got a very eclectic way of communicating with people. You know, i was in new orleans last week talking to the average person in running a Small Business. And i asked, what do they think is going on in washington . Its just a circus. Its just noise. Who gives a damn. Look at the markets. These sales are up 7 this year. We sit here and look at it every day. At the epd of f the day, america doesnt care and i like that about america, a lot. I dont think thats true. I think america does care. Just because were in the early days of f this, as we were in the days of the clinton impeachment and in the days of nixons impeachment in 1927 when these stories first began breaking, there were nondenial denials from the white house. I dont think this president is just you know, were getting used to his style. Not impeachment, we should be more focused on the 25th amendment, which some in congress may deliberate or come to the conclusion that he or as ive argued, is not fit to hold the office. Its josh, im not going to get political because i have a na jar yan to my left and that could result in bloodshed. But i think its important, were like taking this new dwom and saying its a game changer. This guy does whatever he wants. Hes literally running businesses out of the white house. No one is stop iping him from a he does why all of a sudden, hold on, how do we know when theres going to be the straw that broke the camels back when for any other human being inhabiting this office, those straws have been fallen or pulled months ago. How can you be so certain this is the one the market cares about . When i look at the arc of this developing story, having covered events like this for 33 year, it gets worse before it gets better. This is life and death. When the russians have transcripts of a meet wg the president in the oval office that they are willing to share with our congress. Thats just another in a series of Middle America is tired of hearing about russians all day long. Doesnt matter if were bore ed with it. Theres an investigation at the fbi, at the cia, at several Different Senate and house committees. This is not little stuff. This is historic stuff. You may want to be bored by it, mamt to be entertained by it, the market may not want to Pay Attention to it. This is historic and i think its going to have an outcome that is equally historic, the things weve seen in the past. 1974 and 1998. Vix is up 23 as were having this conversation. Is volatility about to come back in a very big way . My argument is no. I think were seeing a flip and were going to have higher volatility, but we have to separate the noise versus the signal. What i think is important to keep in mind is whats drying the market rally, better earnings, better growth, both here in the u. S. As well as aboard. I dont think this derails the Market Recovery or the growth recovery were see ng the u. S. Higher market rs going to be driven by the fact youre see ing better contribution from the consumer and better contribution from international markets. So, the rolling on of the trump agenda doesnt matter at all . I think josh has said this, but i spend all day talking to participants, investors, equity trader, you name it. What everybody is is saying is what ron said, which is this is going to be an attenuated president ial administration. Were not going to get four years. The market is is looking past that and saying mike pence, a republican, a sober individual, with two republican houses in congress will get the trump agenda done better than donald trump will. Which i said yesterday. Thats exactly the point. Not going to happen. I predict and ill say it now, this president will be around if for eight years. People really are starting to like a different style. Thats all this is. No one likes this. Youre wrong. He has sub 40 approval. People who can impeach him. Z i talk to people who run businesses on main street and small towns across america. They are enjoying the entertainment. Theyre justifying and rationalizing the decision they made last fall, that probably theyre not that comfortable admitting, that none of the things theyve voted for are happening. In many cases, its the opposite. The polls are 38 . Can you name a president thats been below 40 . Theyve hated him from day one, according to the polls. Hes at 55 . So, in order to move towards impeachment, firstly, we need the house to impeach him and then a twothirds majority of the senate has to vote him out. So to get a 67 of the senate to vote him out is very hard. The only point here is that a, if the market itself thinks the agenda going to be pusheded off further, theres an agenda. There is no tax plan. Theres a collection of things. Theres not an agenda. Does absurd behavior change the earnings outcome . Yes or no . Thats my point. Im with you. Look, i think you have to delineate between two things. The long r term outlook for the economy and the market. If mike pence were to become president , would be a more effective champion of those measures that would help the economy grow further and support the stock market. That doesnt mean an investor with 20 years to retirement sells stocks. It means trader rs cover their positions or take protective action, even those who might be worried about a correction. Again, it has to be put through a certain prison. An uptick in the vix does not define the environment in which we find ourselves. In fact, quite the opposite. The market is lagging instead of leading. Its up 24 as were having this conversation. No one wants to get out of the market. People were reticent to get a lot of thu u money put to work in the new market. As this tough comes out of d. C. , youre telling me theres not a better than likely chance you dont have people hitting the sell button. Theres still cash on the sidelines. Still plenty out there waiting fwr a dip. You might get another day or two, theres going to be cash that takes advantage of this. These are up double Percentage Points and the dollar has lost all of its post election gains at this point, so if you ask what are people doing, they want to own blue chips, they want stocks to pay dividends. They want some expea shoour to the Global Growth and theyre getting it elsewhere. Why are they selling apple down 3. 5 today . Its one day. Its a decent sized move for apple. Its with one theyre dumping the hardest today. If you need a lot, if youre seeing resenlgss, apples got all the cash. You can hit these 5 billion market caps and youre going to have to sell the whole company to get the money out. Wouldnt change the outcome op on the new apple phone come the fall. Be thats why this noise isnt going to affect the markets. This is just a correction. If a happen, then b is next. Just not how markets work because its a biological machine. Bad trump headlines will royal markets. Today they did. Tell me what happens tomorrow. Its a still issue. I think the style is intriguing, entertaining and making politics more entertaining. Or until the market decides its not. I dont understand how you can be so i love you, too, i swear. We look like twin mothers from a different mother. I think being glib about this experience not just domestic economic consequences, but rather serious Foreign Policy consequences, the fact that the president may have give p up Sensitive Information to the russians about israeli intelligence, these types of things are almost unheard of. These have global consequences and by the way, i wouldnt be long emerging markets in europe either. I think those are have gotten way ahead of themselves. Could be royaled by some developments. Europes been a huge winner and will continue to be so. I know. Why continue to own things that are up a lot when there is i think because theyre barely up over five years and ten years. The risk still looks very attractive. As you start to see the political uphee value, youll see it come down, specifically in europe. That creates a boone for european equities. What would you own then, ron . Puts. I would take protective action. You dont sell disney because of this. Thats a different rationale. Im talking about a near to median term distraction and whatever economic agenda might have been contemplated and some disruption to the Overall Economic political and social environment. I think that is something that the market will have to reckon with over time. Its not the end of the world. One quick question ron though, so, you sound like youre really concerned about all the things going on in washington and im not glib about it. I think im probably more on the same page with you than maybe i sound in the segment. But if what youre, if thats your concern, it sounds like if the president is chastened or reprimanded or goes through a really unpleasant few months he wishes he hadnt and this is the thing that gets him on course to become a better version of himself, maybe this has a Silver Lining that the market is sniffing nout advance. You know, i coffered hvered business man for a long time. I just dont think thats a possibility. 70yearold man is not going change so dramatically in office. This is a subjective comment, but ive covered him enough. Dealt with him enough. Hes hung up on me enough that i know you know, its hard for a leopard to change his spots. Nong yonk hes going to make it. He doesnt have the temperament to sit in the oval office. You are clearly not a fan of president. Well leave it there. Appreciate it. Eamon, thanks. On the north lawn of the white house as well. Heres what else is coming up on the Halftime Report. Ahead. A top retail analyst sees opportunity in a retail name thats been beaten down. The firm uses terms like buying opportunity and Significant Growth potential. Plus, the American Society of clinical onkole ji is about to get started. This conference moves stocks. Well run through the stocksly to move when the Halftime Report team come back in two minutes. Hey gary, what are you doing . Oh hey john, im connecting our brains so we can share our amazing trading knowledge. Thats a great idea, but why dont you just go to thinkorswims chat rooms where you can share strategies, ideas, even actual trades with market professionals and thousands of other traders . I know. Your brain told my brain before you told my face. Mmm, blueberry . Tap into the knowledge of other traders on thinkorswim. Only at td ameritrade. Tjx bucking the doup ward trend. Stock got upgraded to overweight at morgan stanley. They see it as a buying opportunity. What do you guys think of this . Its a bold call to give any upgrade the overeight on apparel. Its one of a handful of stocks that have buckeded the trepd, so tjx, ross store, burlington, have all enjoyed a respite from whats been going on with the rest of the industry and they have premium multiples because of it. When you get one miss like this, its kind of hard to come back. Scott, we were talking last month about tract eor supply. That was on my radar list. They missed and just day after day, go down. I dont think todays bump and todays report is going to recover the stock which is finally feeling the effects. Would anybody buy anything that has to do with apparel . Its home goods. Everybody loves it and in the Research Report were referencing today for morgan stanley, they ask consumers where they plan to spend the most with different outlets and furnishings and this company was number three out of ten or 12 names in the slide. I think this even in my own life, i have to stop at home good, do you want anything from the bagel store. Shopping is going on at the store. Its unlike this call is not a home goods driven call. They say theyre an an apparel play. They say theyre overweight, all three off price retailers. This was an off price retail call. Rue 21. Bebe stores. All the bankruptcies going on out there. You look at the inventories that are going to be dumped by macys and the rest. Who feasts on that . The three stores you just talked about. Ross stores, tj maxx, burlington. And the fact theres excess inventory beyond just normal seasonal things that move hoar and there, vtheres such excess these guys are going to be buying by pennies on the dollar for these goods, whether its home goods. Target came out this morning and upgraded their outlook. Why buy a sector that is a falling knife. If this thing had been upgraded, do you agree that people will own retailer, regardless of the call youre seeing of the whole sector, which you and i agree on, there are still Investment Management people who are going to own retailers and probably, theyre going to cluster into the handfuls. I dont own it personally. I hate this idea. I dont think you can see well, its got risks, o im not going to own it. The idea that the stock has risk, thats exactly where return comes from. Cant just paint nefrg the sector and say its all bad. If you know how to look for them. At the end of the day, this is probably not a great place to deploy capital for the next year because its under tremendous pressure. Sometimes, you have to do the right thing and call it a dog. The premier cancer conference kicking off next week. Next, a preview of the names you need to watch ahead of it. Plus, amazon is reportingedly considering a move into the pharma space. A couple of big name stocks are on the move as a result of that news. Meg has all of it coming up. First, well show you the dow 30 heat map. You have some stocks in the green. Dow down 261 points. Back after this. Dear predictable, theres no other way to say this. Its over. Ive found a permanent escape from monotony. Together, we are perfectly balanced, our senses awake, our hearts racing as one. I know this is sudden, but they say if you love something. Set it free. See you around, giulia i count on my dell small for tech advice. With one phone call, i get products that suit my needs and i get back to business. 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