Transcripts For CNBC Mad Money 20130717 : vimarsana.com

Transcripts For CNBC Mad Money 20130717

Dow dropping 32 points. S p giving up. 37 . Nasdaq declining. 25 . And we seem to fold in angst to run from stocks as if theyre toxic instruments doomed to ruin our Bank Accounts the house of pain. So perhaps its a good moment to ask do we fret too much . Do we let our fears take hold when the market reverses . Do we let a small drift, you know, one of these ones like today, define us after the s p been up eight days straight. Or as stocks decline, do we recognize we sometimes get too worried when events or earnings or trends go against us . Just think of what has really happened in the last two months alone. How much do we fret . We fretted endlessly that one day, one day we would, indeed, have a dramatic rise in Interest Rates. So what happened . We got one. A huge percentage increase, a whopper of one. What does the market do . Well, how about giving the s p 500 the longest winning streak in nine years, how about the nasdaq 100 going up 14 straight days, best since 1990. We were supposed to be frightened out of our shorts by the decline of 100 basis points. We were supposed to be scared, we were supposed to sell, sell, sell. But as bonds overshot their mark, there was no reason for rates to move up that dramatically, and then came back in. What happened . It became the ultimate buying opportunity for stocks. Thats right, something so negative, so horrible, somehow transformed into an honest to goodness buying opportunity. This one without a doubt had to be the bears Worst Nightmare an event so profound, so obviously toxic for stocks and turns out to be a terrific chance to get in and start buy, buy, buy catch the next leg of the onesided bullfight . How about gasoline . I was supposed to be frightened about that one. Were flirting with 4 a gallon. 4 a gallon. How does that have an impact . Well, its a tax, right . Its a direct tax that takes disposable income and flushes it down the toilet of exxon. How could that not hurt . Why not short all of retail . Hey, and a couple of analysts are suggesting, why not bet against six flags, cedar fair, disney, people have to go in the car to get to those things. Lone ranger was a bomb. What happens . You sell them, you short them, maybe you make a couple of bucks. Thats what happened during the big Interest Rate scare. You can do it again. I dont really think its worth the risk to make those couple of bucks. It certainly wasnt in retrospect although im sure more people are trying to do it now betting against stocks that dont seem to reflect the pain of the price youre paying at the pump. To me, all those stocks take a hit on some price at the pump pain, are buys. Cars use less gasoline, use a lot less than they used to. More important, though, other than darden, no one has belly ached about the higher gas prices that ive heard. The bears really cant get the big down days they need to make money by shorting and then covering or buying. How about the banks . Remember we were supposed to be taking profits hand over fist in this group before they reported . I know it. My Charitable Trust has a huge position in wells fargo and were we ever tempted to sell it when not one, but two fabulous analysts downgraded the darn thing right before the quarter. Turns out those analysts were wrong. The quarter had upside in every metric where it was supposed to have downside. From Net Interest Margin to expenses, both of which going the wrong way. Even as the company admitted higher rates could impact mortgages, a huge part of their business, jpmorgan and citigroup were cautious too, but the market detected the positives. They didnt let the negatives get them down. Today the market extrapolated a weak quarter and Bank Investors decided that after initially liking the headline numbers from Goldman Sachs upon further review of the conference call, looks like a lot of those great gains might not be replicated and therefore the stock got sold. And i have to tell you, again with true worry in sight, if bank of america disappoints tomorrow, the whole group will be crushed, which would be a textbook case of people fretting too much. And after a couple of days you know whats going to happen . Theyre going to come back to these stocks, especially since ultimately Interest Rates while not going up right now, are going to go higher. How about all the worry over the personal computer plays thats been going on, the component plays for months now. The semiconductor stocks. All i heard lately were these were among the most vulnerable stocks in the universe. Ones that very smart short sellers had pounded and pounded. And yesterday, what happened . Seagate and Western Digital hit 52week highs. Up 52 and 59 respectively, thats not supposed to happen. Supposed to be at the lows. And while they can go down in the earnings report, turns out they were horrendous shorts. Hewlettpackard advancing more than 85 for the year. Microns back in the win column where it belongs as it was up 110 this year. Those shorts didnt work. Do you want some serious fretting going spoiled . Remember the egyptian riots . They were supposed to have a tremendously negative impact on the market. Instead, a much more marketfriendly regime took over and egypts calmed down considerably. How about the protests in brazil . You know what they did . They marked the bottom in brazilian stocks. That seemesd to be going up since then. Im going to be addressing that later in the show. How about three months ago when starbucks and 3m announced earnings. I remember it well because we were at villanova when they reported and 3m dropped a quick 5 points from 108 to 103. What was that about . It was a buying opportunity. The stock astonishingly rallied. It was a buying opportunity. I still cant figure out what people initially disliked about starbucks, but i remember thinking a chance to buy the stock below 60 where it was at nova. Well, it was better than fine with terrific numbers from china and the united states, starbucks never looked back and a tenpoint rally in a straight line. Perhaps the best trade of all came from the highest Growth Stocks when the Interest Rate rally when the Interest Rate soared. Now, these highGrowth Stocks are the ones youre never supposed to buy in an era where rates are skyrocketing. And after that move, i dont know how you can say rates werent doing just that. Youre supposed to blow out and then short the most richly valued stocks in the market as the rates rise signaling an oncoming inflation rush and a concomitant erosion of what you should be willing to pay for companys future earnings. Thats the proverbial hedge fund playbook. Thats what youre supposed to do. Celgene and gilead have been downright unstoppable, taking out the old highs. I get that with celgene. They announced they would be able to reapply in europe. But gilead, nothing special at all. When we were all fretting and worrying, the two stocks are regarded as the most expensive large cap equities in the universe. Amazon and netflix. Now, when i was starting my old hedge fund, i used to go after these kinds of stocks. Every time we had an Interest Rate spike, i shortened them with abandon, betting the price earned multiple id be coining money. But once rates stabilized, you were history and the shorts that did these trades this time around, they are, indeed, history. Amazon, netflix, 52week highs today. Good shorts spoiled of course, there are some stocks that havent come back. Housing stocks havent, they need Mortgage Rates down to get them back. But if rates go down, they will go up. Blackberry, united parcel, cocacola, more on that later. Theyre disappointed where they are right now. Theyre in, yes, indeed, the bow wow chateau. But for the bottom line, what are we thinking here . Looking at recent history, we fretted too much. We worried too much. We were scared too much. We let whats known as the down tape impact our feelings to the point of acting on them. Perhaps this time, this selloff will use the weakness to buy the good stocks that have just reported and not dump them. You know what weve been doing . Weve been doing the rational thing, the rational thing to do. And in the end, doing whats rational does make you the most money. Can i go to john in california, please . John . Caller booyah, jim, from out here in sacramento, california. Sacramento, oh, i miss it hows it going out there . Caller its about 80 degrees and i hear you guys got our hot weather. Weve traded off. Thats a pretty good thing. True. Excellent weather report. Caller we got involved with qualcomm a while back, they couldnt keep up with demand. We hear today they downgraded and the stocks going up. Whats your opinion . Not my favorite. Not my favorite. I like the kind of oldfashioned retro paleozoic tech stocks. I like Texas Instruments more than i like qualcomm. There, i said it. I like cypress semi more. I like micron, symbol moo, more. Lets go to yasha in new york. Yasha . Caller i have a question about baidu, i rode it down to the mid80s and rode it up until yesterday and unfortunately i pulled the trigger perhaps too early. In light of the fact theyve made two multibillion dollar acquisitions of late, should i get back in . No no. I mean, look, i think china has bottomed. I think the news out of china will be bumping along. But i dont want you to own any chinese stocks. I understand they executed a guy for doing what madoff did the other day, you think that should concentrate their minds. I do not trust their equivalent of the s. E. C. I dont trust their stock market at all. And thats been a good thing not to trust. You dont need to dig too far into your memory to realize that worry is not an investable option. You know what . Lets go for fortitude next time because history says we should use the weakness to buy. Mad money will be right back. Coming up, up up and away. Oils on the rise and were all being pinched at the pump. But cramers giving you the tools to fight back. Dont miss two slick ways to play the move in black gold. And later soda wars, the glass was half empty for cocacola today as its earnings shortfall took the fizz out of its stock and its rival, as well. But with pepsico reporting next week, is this your chance to grab some pop . Or could it leave you with an awful aftertaste . Dont miss cramers take, all coming up on mad money. Dont miss a second of mad money. Follow jimcramer on twitter. Have a question . Tweet cramer madtweets. Send jim an email to madmoney cnbc. Com or give us a call at 1800743cnbc. Miss something . Head to madmoney. Cnbc. Com. Vo traveling you definitely end up meeting a lot more people but a friend under water is something completely different. I met a turtle friend today so, you dont get that very often. It seemed like it was more than happy to have us in his home. So beautiful. Avo more travel. More options. More personal. Whatever youre looking for expedia has more ways to help you find yours. Announcer where can an investor be a name and not a number . Scottrade. Ron im never alone with scottrade. I can always call or stop by my local office. Theyre nearby and ready to help. So when i have questions, i can talk to someone who knows exactly how i trade. Because i dont trade like everybody. I trade like me. Thats why im with scottrade. Announcer scottrade proud to be ranked best overall client experience. Well, a not so hot day, at least in the market where the averages have pulled back so slightly from the highs, how do you find stocks well off the highs, still have a lot of room to run. Stocks where the easy money has yet to be made. You know what i do . One way is i turn to the charts, which is what were doing with the help of tim collins, my colleague at realmoney. Com. In a market where virtually everything has been roaring, sometimes you have to start by looking at the losers and the laggards. You want a stock that isnt tapped out, thats not exploited. Find one thats been on a downward trajectory and could be ready to turn things around. Especially a stock that is down when it should be going up for other reasons. Collins points out that even though both equities and oils have been on fire, there are still stocks like petrobras, pbr, the big Brazilian Oil firm. Theyre actually down 30 yeartodate, and get this one, down 82 from its alltime high. And no, im not talking about a Brazilian Company only as an excuse to run gratuitous giselle footage, although that is an added bonus. Based on the charts, collins thinks that pbr, the stock could give you a 10 to 20 pop by the end of the year and maybe even more. Why does collins believe the pbr can be transforming from loser to leader . Take a look at this. This is the daily chart. Now it doesnt take a Rocket Scientist to recognize pbr has been in a serious down trend since the beginning of the year if not since 2008 when it peaked, but you dont see that because this is a shorter length of time chart. Its improved aggressively from the upper left hand corner of the chart to the righthand corner. Its begun to turn higher, as you can see. And collins thinks we could be looking at a genuine bounce here, something that has been antithetical to my view. Why . I swore off this pbr back when it traded in the 40s, now its at 13, although i never swore off the other pbr, pabst blue ribbon. Hence this convenient albeit totally gratuitous beeramid they dont stack well, by the way. Its not like miller 64. The reason collins is actually saying buy what looks to be a real dog . This same chart which shows pbr getting pasted shows the stock can stage shortterm rallies amidst the carnage. Weve got two terrific moves. One at the beginning of march and another that started in mid april. And together nearly erased all of petrobras losses for the year before the stock gave back all those gains and then some. And every time we have one of these shortterm rallies, collins points out theyve been led by pbrs tenday moving average. A very shortterm measure of the stocks trajectory. The tenday moving average has been trending lower. If you bought pbr when this flattened or started to head higher, youve racked up solid gains as long as you treated it as a trade and got out before the profits evaporated. You can see the tenday move, boom, that signaled that. That signaled that. Theres really obvious trading, people. There it is, okay. And as long as petrobras stays above 12. 60, 62 cents below where the stock is right now, then collins thinks its going higher, so youve got a nice stop out, 62 cents below. He sees it heading to 15 based on the past in terms of the tenday moving average, and that would represent a 12 gain from these levels. Im going more toward the investment here. Thats not all. Collins sees more things that he likes here. Check out this version of pbrs daily chart. Looking at the action in the stock here, collins think petrobras is forming a rounding bottom pattern here. This rounding bottom is just now breaking through the ceiling of resistance that could propel the stock into a terrific rebound. Once pbr launches out of the rounding bottom rocking pad, two more important ceilings of resistance, another at 14. 50. Collins believes pbr can blow through these obstacles and the reason is at the top of the chart where you have the two big momentum indicators we follow. The rsi and the sto. These are both different ways of detecting changes in the stocks trajectory ahead of time as well as whether the stock is too overbought or oversold. What are they saying about petrobras . Were seeing what chartists call a bullish divergence. Each making new highs, relative to where theyve been a few weeks ago, theyve taken off. Meanwhile, the stock itself isnt really doing that. Oh, boy, for collins thats an incredibly bullish sign. The fact that the rsi, the relative strength and the stochastics moving higher where the stock is going lower, tells collins and all the other chart watchers that the turn is very likely at hand. You get a bullish indicator, you get them in both, its a major wakeup call to the technical traders and bottom fishers out there. Based on whats happening in this daily chart, he feels they shouldnt have any problem making it above where it is now. Although pbr could break out above 14. 50, were going to make a pbramid. For those of you worried that the run in oil may be overdone and a that pullback in crude could weigh on petrobras, collins says youre really wrong, looking at the wrong place. The correlation doesnt hold up. Take a look at this chart. It shows the action in pbr, those are the candles, okay. And the correlation between pbr and west texas intermediate crude oil. You might think this chart pretty much trades together, right. It shows a strong relationship between the performance of pbr and the price of crude. This black line does not represent the price of west texas crude. It represents the correlation between west texas crude and petrobras. Its all over the map. There are points where the correlation is over 75 , you want to see a line like that if you wanted to see lock step. You also have points where it is negative 75. And now its about 50 . In short, theres surprisingly little correlation between how petrobras trades and how oil trades. There is a milder or even inverse correlation. It just doesnt configure that way. Stop looking at oil, because collins did find something that petrobras has a strong correlation with and its not oil, its right here at the top of the chart, the ewz. The ishares brazil etf. And right now it correlates 98 with the pbr stock. Petrobras trades with brazil, thats why the stock got hammered last month. This suggests that even though oil has had a monster move higher, it doesnt reflect any of that because its been held down by brazilian worries. I thought this was brilliant when i saw it. I said its brazil, its not oil it can roar heres the bottom line, the charts say petrobras is a laggard that could be ready to catch up. This is a Good Oil Company finding crude oil all over the place both on offshore, onshore brazil, and what the stock is levered to, what seems to be making it a bottom is brazil. This, i dont know, is just a really good beer. After the break, ill try to make you more money. Coming up, refiner reversal. One big oil play reported a downside surprise, but stunningly, its stock powered higher. Cramer finds out whats behind the move. Plus, is it time to slide in, or is the slope too slippery . And later, soda wars, the glass was half empty for cocacola today as its earnings shortfall took the fizz out of its stock and its rival, as well. But with pepsico reporting next week, is this your chance to grab some pop . Or could it leave you with an awful aftertaste . Dont miss cra

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