Transcripts For CNBC Mad Money 20140402 : vimarsana.com

Transcripts For CNBC Mad Money 20140402

Dow gaining 40 points, s p climbing. 29 , nasdaq. 20. Companies that make heavy equipment, companies that help make planes or cars or homes just keep winning over investors hearts. As we play in this vacuum thats virtually devoid of earnings reports, how thick is this love . Not long ago, i predicted that caterpillar after a serious spell of poor performance could become adored. Adored beyond all reason as the economy improves. It seems so natural given that united rental, a company we had several times and said its heavy machinery customers are as bullish as theyve ever seen them. Its reasonable to think theres a big uptick coming in construction spending. Maybe from the boom in oil and gas and nonresidential building. Its no surprise when the once despised now acclaimed caterpillar, big dow stock smashed through 100 like a hot knife through butter. It is the leader of 2014 that i follow. Companies that melt iron and bend steel are acting the way the biotechs acted not long ago and a huge acceleration in car sales led even General Motors to rally. Talk about a rising tide lifting the leakiest of boats. It was an amazing reversion to the Old Industrial days. In fact, feels a little like the 80s and 90s when manufacturing ruled the day in america. Now, watchers of the show know i end every episode with the same promise. To find the bull market somewhere. And after a days respite where 2013s leaders reblossomed, the bull market remains in stocks that do best when the economy picks up speed. Something thats been the case ever since fed chief janet yellen told us not that long ago that things are Getting Better. Of course, we find out on friday whether the better sales in so many areas translates into stronger employment. It does look like its going to translate into higher industrial profits when companies report. Yet, this is kind of a rally, might even be able to continue if we simply get a number on friday that shows any real employment growth at all. But on days like today, i have to take Something Else into consideration. Is it even worth pursuing a bull market at all given the notion that the whole shebang might be rigged. Ever since Michael Lewis burst on the scene with his charges that the markets rigged by huge funds with advanced equipment that allows them to buy your stocks ahead of you and mark them up and sell them back to you, theres been a brutal battle between those who defend those practices and those who think theyre nefarious. Viewers know i made up my mind five years ago, that this highfrequency trading stuff was a horrendous tax on you, on investors that should not be permitted. It doesnt belong. I used to debate this endlessly with the people who use their high speeds to front run you, but i finally decided it wasnt worth the energy. Because every now and then, you have some practice thats basically no good and helps no one except those who perform it. The high speed traders dont give you better prices for your stocks, they tell you that all the time. They give you worse prices. The reason you get better prices these days is because the system switched from fractions to pennies. They had nothing to do with it. The highfrequency guys dont make for deeper markets either. You hear that one. If anything, they make for thinner ones. This is pretty logical, people. If you think the markets rigged, you arent going to go near it and youll go buy other assets. Anything that drives away investors is bad for the fairness of the markets because there wont be enough buyers to make the markets orderly. Highspeed frequency trading has driven many people away. Let me go one step further. People ive been around, i am not a spring chicken. Ive traded everything at one time or another and have friends at every kind of firm imaginable. And i can tell you that with the exception of the companies that do this themselves, everyone i know accepts that defending highfrequency trading is no different from defending the mosquito. Now, theres no real positive case to be made that mosquitos are valuable to humans. Theyre parasites. But unlike highfrequency traders, mosquitos cannot come on tv and tell us how great they are. Nor can they assert the timehonored you dont know what youre talking about. But if they could, i hope you wouldnt believe them any more than these selfserving bandits. Heres what i find galling, though. We spray for mosquitos, governments try to, at best, to eradicate mosquitos. I once heard president clinton about his project to hand out millions of mosquito nets to stop the ravages of disease that these creatures spread. Boy, throw a couple of tents wall streets way, would you . Our government does nothing to protect you from the mosquitos of highfrequency trading. I think its wrong. Of course, if youre trying to pick the next berkshire hathaway, youre not going to feel the pain from some mosquito that buys that stock ahead of you and selling it back to you. When youre up 1,000 points, you p dont care much about a mosquito bite. But say you trade millions of shares a day. How about if your pension, your 401 k is invested by funds that get bitten every day by mosquitos. Thats a lot of bites. Its a lot of lost blood. Its not a pinprick. Its up to the government to stop that blood letting, not the buyers or sellers who are simply trying to get the best price for you. Dont you think we have enough fees and taxes already on trading . If the securities and Exchange Commission can stop one of them, this one, why doesnt it . Now, perhaps the government doesnt view these mosquitos as rigging the market. But even if its not rigged, its obviously still nettle sm to the stocks out there. We hear all the time from funds that promise you the best price, but thats obviously a fiction given that the highfrequency mosquitos stand between your manager and the best price. I think there are three possible reasons why the sec doesnt want to eradicate the mosquito. One is somehow they believe the mosquito serves a function. They do fulfill afunction for bats which is ironically the name of the firm whose boss William Obrien did battle with Michael Lewis and others in this area on the air yesterday. I dont want to believe it. Second is that the sec doesnt think it matters because its been around and no one said anything before. Judging by the fire storm thats greeted lewis new book, that arguments out the window. Finally, theres the possibility they think there shouldnt be an expectation of fairness at all. And this, the mosquito tax, is simply part of whats unfair. Oddly, this is a rationale i can get my arms around. I understand this one. Perhaps the sec sees the imperative of the mosquito as being equal to the imperative to the pension fund manager. Mosquitos have feelings, too . Thats why i think the Exchange Idea that lewis praises, one that doesnt allow mosquitos, lets call it the mosquito ten exchange, is probably the answer. Not an out and out ban of something the sec may not believe in, which is an actual level playing field. I think the bottom lines clear here. No ones going to eradicate the highfrequency mosquito because no one in authority seems to think its necessary. But dont ask me to like it, and definitely dont tell me that its good for me. Im not a bat, and i dont work for bats either. Lets go to jack in florida, please. Jack . Caller enjoy your show very much and also your book. Thank you, jack. Thank you. Caller what is happening with yelp . Part of this what i call the highmultiple crushing there is just a multiple contraction thats going on for stocks that sell for a lot of money and yelps part of that cohort. Were buying all these metal benders now. Yelp will have its day again, but understand, it is in the high multiple tlesher right now. Larry in massachusetts, please, larry . Caller hey, jim, how are you tonight . Ill be hosting friday. Im doing some hosting. Caller im telling you, it was great even on a rainy night when you were in seattle. Thank you very much. I wanted to tend bar that night, man. Whats up . Caller ill ask you, you seem to be more positive on the clothing side of retail. With the rotating from home depot to coach and tvh lately. Given the run in footlocker lately and the position in trifecta stocks, can you compare the prospect of those of finish line . Well, theyre both highquality companies. I have historically liked footlocker. It has fantastic management. I like finish lines move into macys. You know what, i know that this is probably not the answer you want, larry, and ill certainly see but this one generally is a push at these levels. Need some bug spray . The market sure does. The mosquitos of hft are bugging you all and biting. But the sec does nothing to eradicate them. Mad money will be right back. Coming up fresh fruit . Forget amazon from its secret plans for the future of tv to its next generation iphone, apple is taking center stage again. Is the former cool kid from kuypcupertino about to shock th world again . Cramers slicing it open next. And later game time, the final four gives the best in College Basketball a chance to reach the big dance. But the turning probably wont swing any profits into your folder. Thats why tonight, cramers kicking off his own magic between the best ballers in the market to help you become a stock champion. All coming up on mad money. Dont miss a second of mad money. Follow jimcramer on twitter. Have a question . Tweet cramer, madtweets. Send jim an email to madmoney cnbc. Com. Or give us a call, 1800743cnbc. Miss something . Head to madmoney. Cnbc. Com. Oney. At your ford dealer think . They think about tires. And what theyve been through lately. Polar vortexes, road construction, and gaping potholes. So with all that behind you, you might want to make sure youre safe and in control. Ford technicians are ready to find the right tires for your vehicle. Get up to 120 in mailin rebates on four select tires when you use the Ford Service Credit card at the big tire event. See what the ford experts think about your tires. At your ford dealer. Suddenly, every analyst wants to recommend value stocks. Even when they arent exactly value stocks at all. Take this morning. We heard an impassioned plea from a very good analyst that apple, apple is an unappreciated value name. The recipe for value stock, apples got the ingredients. It has to have a valuation blow to the average stock in the s p 500, apple certainly has that using priced to earnings metrics. Sells at a lowly 112 times earnings, average stock at 17. 3 times earnings. A new product coming out, the iphone 6 that the analysts, gene munster who opines on apple believes is being underestimated. Points out while apple hasnt had great earnings momentum to speak of, he sees the company earning a huge 43 per share this calendar year. And you can expect a boost as well as an increase in the buyback. But the most important thing about this recommendation is that munsters asserting if the market is taking up a lot of other value stocks, and thats been the case, then apple should fit into the category, too, and deserves a higher valuation. Frankly, when you think about it, this is a shocking turn of events. Weve often considered apple one of the great Growth Stocks of our time with ever increasing earnings. But the companys Earnings Growth is no longer keeping pace with the rest of the highgrowth techs and its failed to blow us away with any mustbuy product. Instead, there are all of these little products that produce a modest amount of excitement but arent necessarily blowing away the competition as apple used to before an aggressive samsung armed with googles snazzy android operating system started taking them on. Now, in the last few weeks, weve seen a love affair with what can only be called old tech. Hewlettpackard, for example, has had declining sales for some time, yet up 18 for the year. The stock was up again today. It just kind of lev at a timing. Oracle, which missed the estimate badly has nevertheless rallied, up 8 . Microsofts had a remarkable move on the change in leadership that may or may not change the company. Ibm, which lo and behold my Charitable Trust has been buying has reported multiple weak quarters with the last one being the weakest. But the stocks moved up 20 straight points, now up 3 for the year. That, despite ibm showing a decline in revenues and no one expects that from apple. Apples not going to give a decline. Why i mabm . Because it represents value. Its so valuable that warren buffett, mr. Value is the largest shareholder. Meanwhile, apple down 3 for the year despite the superior profile versus every single one of the Old Tech Companies i mentioned. If apple cant be sold as a growth stock, why dont we just repackage it and call it a value play and have it get taken up by those who keep bidding up value . The secret behind the value push is the economys supposed to be Getting Better and the other companies doing soso could see a dramatic uptick in business if we get an acceleration of global growth. These are companies that have cut back staff or reorganized or become lean enough the argument goes that any increase in sales from Worldwide Growth will produce tremendous earnings leverage. But apple, its not clear how much a stronger economy will really help their sales. Maybe apples real problem is its not perceived as a growth stock and its not considered a value stock because we think of value in conjunction with an explosion in earnings if the economy gets better. Something that really hasnt been true for apple historically. Heres the bottom line, apple, its in limbo. And perhaps thats where it will stay until it shows us it can produce better earnings if the economy improves or it reveals a new product that could move the needle. A stock being in limbo doesnt mean it can hurt you. But thats not much of a reason to buy a stock, is it . One good thing, if apple does miss earnings, the fall may be cushioned by its potential newfound value status. Hey, it worked for ibm and oracle, it can eventually work for apple, too. Mark in utah, please, mark . Caller hi, jim, Big Salt Lake city booyah to ya. Same. Caller i got a question about disney. Companys got a lot of upgrades. And they say that i read a ton of cash. And that target is like 130. Whats your take on it . I think 90 im only looking as far as 81 can go to 90, i actually believe that. Why do i think you can go higher . Because its got earnings momentum, 2015 looks really great, 2016 looks great. Hes one of my bankable 21 in get rich carefully. And most important, they are buying up a huge amount of shares on the down days. Theres a recipe for value and apple has got the ingredients. But the company, its in limbo. Final four action is coming up next. [ female announcer ] working together means working efficiently. And a lennox home comfort system may just be the perfect example. Its air conditioner works together with the furnace, and that works together with the air purifier, and that works with you by saving you up to half off your heating and cooling bill. Call now to get up to 1,700 dollars back or special financing on select lennox home comfort systems. Offer ends june 13th. Plus download our free lennox mobile app with an energysavings calculator. If your Current System is 10 years or older, start planning now and take advantage of special financing. So call now to get up to 1,700 dollars back or special financing on select lennox home comfort systems. Offer ends june 13th. And download our free lennox mobile app. Lennox. Innovation nt so good. Because i will do anything to try to get ahold of your attention, get you interested in the stock market, this week in celebration of march madness with the final four coming up this weekend, were doing our own mad money version of the final four. When it comes to money madness, our tournament was the First Quarter where the broader averages seesaw but only climbed slightly as the dow, the s p inched up 1. 3 . The idea here is that we want to compare the bestperforming stocks from the First Quarter to see which one has the best chance of roaring for the rest of the year. Heres how it works. We take the two bestperforming qualifying stocks from the s p 500 for the First Quarter and tonight we pit them against each other, the winner takes home the title for the s p conference. Then tomorrow, weve got the two qualifying best performers in the nasdaq. Friday is the big game. Where the winner of the s p conference and the winner of the nasdaq Conference Face off against each other. And whichever company prevails is our First Quarter champion that we think will do well for the rest of 2014. So who are our top seeds for tonights match. The number one performer in the s p for the First Quarter was forest labs. We cant do that. Forest is being acquired by activist. Thats an automatic disqualification. Once a takeovers announced, you get a big spike that caps the upside going forward. Just not exactly what were looking for. The number two performer, though, was neighbors nbr. The onshore driller that rallied 45 for the First Quarter. Nabors is in. And Keurig Green Mountain disqualified since the gains are all about cocacola bought a 10 stake back in february. We want stocks that have radical rallied on their own organically and theyre more likely to keep rallying. Which brings me to our next contender. Tyson foods, tsn, the fourth best performer for the First Quarter up hefty 31. 5 . And i think harmon deserves a mention as best in show company with terrific stock. Thats the auto company and we love that company onair. They have been fantastic when theyve come on mad money. Anyway, this round is nabors versus tyson. Which one has the best chance of rallying for the remainder of the year . Before we can answer that, we need to deal with an even more fundamental question. How the heck do you even begin to compare an oil driller with a food company . Mainly a maker of Meat Products like chicken. Well, youve got to learn how to do this, people, so im teaching tonight. You start by comparing the sector. Remember, as i told you before, sometimes 50 of a Stock Performance comes from the sector it belongs to. Nabors

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