Transcripts For CNBC Mad Money 20140428 : vimarsana.com

CNBC Mad Money April 28, 2014

Nothing, some stocks that went up slowly and then there were stocks that seemed to soar by the day hallelujah even at the recession, dow jumping 87 points, nasdaq declining. 03 , many of you may have taken a hit to your portfolio. Because you owned a stock thats plain toxic to your net worth. Yes, we now have hazardous stocks. Tonight, lets explore the right and wrong stocks for this moment. Whats the definition of a stock that can do no right in this market . How about a stock that could do no wrong before the market changes stripes this year . And whats a stock that could do no wrong these days . You guessed it. Its a stock that has done kind of nothing for the ages. Lets start with the losers because im a huge believer in the notion that your winners will take care of themselves if you can isolate the losers and cordon them off, which, by the way is exactly what the dow and s p are doing despite the commentary right now weve got three different kinds of stocks that are hazardous to your wealth. The first group is what i call the amazon army. How do companies enlist in the army . Swear to grow revenues fast and dont worry about turning a profit. Since for a long time the market rewarded companies provided they had excellent revenue growth. Remember how people used to yap on tv, companies that showed big earnings per share increases and not sales gains . Because those earnings werent supposed to be real done by buybacks, by firings. These were the same people who clambered to join amazons army of high fliers. How can you blame them . Who can blame them . Amazon managed to put up terrific sales numbers. So if you only cared about revenue growth, amazon was for you. It was created for you. I can tell you many a merchant complained to me offline about how unfair it was they had to play by the rules of disciplined capital allocation, making sure they both produced consistent profits and then returned a lot of the profits to shareholders via dividends and buybacks, yet amazon could show loss after loss and stock could still roar. I chalked it up to jealous. But maybe theyre just being real. Lately, with the economy improving, Many Companies have started doing better on both the top and bottom lines. When was the last time you heard anyone talk about owning walmart or target. Two of the biggest retailers on earth with stocks that have been treading water. Now, though, i think things have begun to improve for both of those companies. I think youre going to see a sustained uptick in sales like amazon, but also unlike amazon earnings. Amazon only gives you strong sales. Plus, many of the shareholders who piled into amazon were never comfortable with owning the shares anyway. They just wanted to be able to beat the averages. It was a way to beat the averages. They were hidden in the army and now theyve gone awol simply because the stocks stopped going up. If it stopped going higher, whats the point of sticking with it . Thats what they do. Obviously theres none, judging by the action. Heres whats important. Amazon itself did nothing wrong. In fact, it did exactly what it has always done when it reported on friday. The company blew the doors off the sales number. Dont let anyone tell you otherwise. They didnt listen to the call if they didnt. And its been heavy to grow out its business especially in china. I think they thought thats what would send the stock higher. But it was the hedge funds and their analyst friends that jolted amazon, not the other way around. Im begging you to understand this concept because you may own shares in a company that got hammered today and the crime was that it followed the amazon model and didnt care about profits, just opportunities. Marching this whole army off a cliff and really doesnt matter what the companies say. Theyre doing exactly what was desired of them before the shocking turn from sales to profits grip the market. Any stock in an area where there have been a ton of initial public offerings, consider them land mines that dilute the space while arming competitors with new capital. Take the rubicon project. The stock, not an experiment, a stock, that was down more than almost any other, falling more than 16 , even though as analysts rolled out buy ratings on the newly public enterprise. They pushed it, recommended buying it. You wouldnt think that, given the stock fell 3. 19. You think they would sell, sell, sell. Heres what i came up with. Two competitors waiting in the wings that will come public in the next month or two, and theyre in the exact same space, tools for internet advertising. I think the owners are just trying to get out ahead of the ipo posse. As both competitors have similar projects and i know many people would say superior performance. Dilution by ipo. Of course, it doesnt help that some kinds of stocks that are the same ones being diluted by more ipos belong to companies with massive insider selling. So theres new stock coming out all over the place. Finally, theres the third hazardous group of stocks, the biotechs, some of which tried to find their footing today. This market was incredibly kind to biotechs and biotech ipos for several years now. The proliferation of biotech deals lately has burned through a ton of capital, though. Especially since theyre all in that formative stage, just ideas. Plus, theres an amazon factor here, too. Much of the money migrated from big old boring pharma. But have you noticed how big pharma is not all that boring. Pfizer might be buying astrazeneca. Merck might be splitting up. People talking about buying the Consumer Product business. Allergen rallied after getting a monster takeover bid. Thats talks surrounding virtually every major drug company i know. Who needs expensive highflying Drug Developers when theres so much good happening to the cheap, big old pharmas. At the same time the model went belly up, the ipos came marching in and over the cliff and big pharma came roaring back to life. The shocking decline in interest rates, which created an environment where any stock with a good yield even if the companys not doing that well is worth owning. Thats how the utilities can have a great run. Even though theres no lift in the business. Its how Proctor Gamble and mcdonalds probably two of the biggest earnings disappointors in the dow have been some of the best performing. People want the safety and yield that proctor and mcdonalds offer. And right now, theyre willing to sacrifice, yes, growth in order to contain it. What can we make these trajectories change . What could reverse them . Were beginning to take a look at the charts or momentum later in the show. Look, it can change, i know it can. I think any change will have to be a function of time, price and healing. Meaning momentum stocks have to go low enough that insiders stop selling and start buying which encourages beleaguered institutions to come back and do buying themselves. Until then, we could get a bounce. That bounce will be viewed as another opportunity to sell these now hated stocks like the bounce we had at the opening. Did you see they were like heatseeking missiles coming after these stocks. As for the stocks being bought. All right. Go back to 2000. If you look at what stocks perform best after the nasdaq began in the crash of 2000. It was the utilities, drugs, classic growth, retailers and industrials. Thats exactly whats working today. Thats whats been working for several weeks. So i suspect this move can last a lot longer than many think. Stocks could do no wrong a few months ago, can do no right now and vice versa. Some of the stocks thrown out today didnt deserve to be. Im certain that some of the stocks that were bid up are beyond where they should be. Still, though, these kinds of moves go to extremes before they correct. And history says, we havent yet reached those levels of extreme. Lets take some questions. Wipe dont we go to danielle in kansas. Danielle . Caller booyah, jim, from kansas. Recently Darden Restaurants announced a spinoff of the chain followed by a drop in profits yearoveryear. Should investors be more concerned with dardens future and lesser known restaurants such as yard house and capital grill . Or more concerned with the spineoff to come . Thank you for that question. What they have to be concerned about is management seeming not knowing what theyre doing because the real problem is red lobster. And Olive Gardens not that great either. Got to get management to fix it, not break it off or spin it off. Lets go to jason in new jersey. Jason . Caller hey, jim, how are you . How are you, jason . Caller good. Watching your shows at the end of the crazy trading days lately is the only thing that relieves my stress. I have to tell you, thats good, because its about as stressful as ever to do this show. Thank you very much. Caller its crazy. The old days all over again. And todays stress is groupon. Just when i think it made a base at 740, 730, boom, its the ugly girl at the dance. What is going on . Groupon, actually, did not make the quarter, missed the quarter. Typically, it would snap back in the old market. In the new market, when someone misses the quarter, theres no coming back until they report a better one. Youre going to have to wait until groupon reports again. Right now, were seeing a market of extremes. The stocks that can do no wrong, stocks that can do no right and vice versa. Hey, on mad money tonight, big trouble for one of the biggest banks today. Golden opportunity or the latest scandal nail in the coffin for the whole group . Why dont we go off the charts to see if theres babies or at least maybe one baby being thrown out with the bath water. More mad money after the break. Coming up rest, relaxation and returns . From lake tahoe to thailand, online startup home away has added innovation to your vacation. But the companys latest trip, a 30 selloff from its highs has been anything but first class. Was it always overvalued . Or is this your chance to book a spot in the stock . Dont miss a second of mad money. Follow jimcramer on twitter. Have a question . Tweet cramer madtweets. Send jim an email to madmoney cnbc. Com. Or give us a call at 1800743cnbc. Miss something . Head to madmoney. Cnbc. Com. Honestly, im pouring everything i have into this place. Thats why i got a new windows 2 in 1. It has exactly what i need for half of what i thought id pay. And i dont need to be online for it to work. It runs office, so i can do schedules and budgets and even menu changes. But its fun, too with touch, and tons of great apps for stuff like music, cause a good playlist is good for business. I need the bosss signature for this. Im the boss. Honestly i wanna see you be brave honestly man we know when parents and teachers work together. Woman our schools get stronger. Man as superintendent of public education, thats been Tom Torlaksons approach. Woman torlakson has supported legislation to guarantee spending decisions about our education tax dollars are made by parents, teachers and the local community. And not by sacramento politicians. And we need to keep that legislation on track. Man so tell Tom Torlakson to keep fighting for local control of School Funding decisions. Embarrassing . Disappointing . Foolish or just par for the course . Thats gripped me since the shocking news that bank of america discovered an error in one of the submissions to the federal government. An error which will now cause the company to suspend its Dividend Increase and its 4 billion stock buyback. Those jewels that we just got. Its ridiculous that bank of america didnt discover this error earlier. Especially since this mistake caused the bank to overstate its capital when it applied to the government for permission to return capital to shareholders. The miscalculation revolved around the realize issued by merrill lynch, remember them . The predecessor of the current bank of america. Dating back as many as five years, maybe more. When i first heard the news, i almost fell out of my chair. How could they be a bunch of bone heads . Why did i ever trust them . But before and after the latest quarterly report, so excited about getting that dividend boost and a buyback. Now, i am not absolving bank of america from this stupid error. The overstatement of capital is shockingly preposterous. Although, if theres a silver lining, if you back out the silver statement, enough capital to pass stress tests. Although, you know what, im no longer as comfortable with that level if the bank has to write a huge check to the feds for past transgressions, which i think they will have to. And unfortunately because of this mistake, shareholders like my Charitable Trust which bought more stock because of the expected good news of buybacks and dividends have been totally disappointed by these guys. Because these enticements arent going to come back any time soon. But heres whats really got me steamed, frankly. You should feel mad at me about, im a chump. Its become pretty darn obvious that large banks which do more than just lending simply cant be run effectively anymore. Theyre not only too big to fail, theyre too big to manage. Jamie dimon was led astray in a multibillion dollar loss that couldnt be spotted by the ceo and his top team in new york . If a brilliant sharpeyed banking captain cant see a whale in his midst, maybe no boat is safe. How about citigroup . The test that bank of america passed with the erroneous submission because of regulatory issues that we can probably presume include the recent discovery of a 400 million alleged fraud link to one of the clients. When i googled the client after the alleged fraud was exposed, i saw a whole host of articles about the finances well written well before the suspected fraud was discovered. Maybe citi needs to google the clients before lending them money . Or are things so desperate theyve compromised their ability to think clearly . Bank of america, citigroup and jpmorgan are not terrible companies. They have smart people who work there. But these institutions have gotten too hard to figure out and big to keep track of. The error had to do with a structured note, which in english having created them, sold them and bought them means really hard to decipher custom made bond that has bells and whistles. Just consider the bond as something made by dr. Frankenstein. Who the heck knew what it could do . Who knew what it might be worth . These problems seem endenimic, which means how cheap the bank stops look, and they do look cheap, theyve been seductive to me, they arent going to get a decent valuation unless all they do is what we used to think they did. Take in deposits, loan money against the deposits and charge high fees. And anything more than that and this bank of america travesty, i think youre going to have to take a pass. Lets go to paul in minnesota, please, paul . Caller jim . Paul. Caller just seeing what you think. Snv. They announced reverse 7 1 stock split recently. They going to go through it . Its not a great bank. But i have been waiting i recommended it as a spec in the 2 level. It would be good. But banking has gotten so tough, i would ring the register on it. I dont want to be there. Its not good enough. There are a lot of goodquality banks not getting a bid. Im not going to give it to a bad one. Larry in massachusetts, larry . Caller hey, jim, ill tell you, i cant cut up an avocado these days without thinking about you. Well, i was slicing limes on friday and saturday holy cow, the place was jumping whats up . Glad to hear it. Hey, you went out to dream force with the most complimentary attitude. November is november, may is may. A lot of us are experiencing our own reverse seasonal disorder about software as a disservice. I think you believe in the best of breed names, now we need to pick through the rubble. Do you believe that stocks such as marcetto are going to be the pets. Com sock puppets or are they broken stock . I think marketo is not as good in workday. Its going to come down to competition and who has enough who has raised enough money to be able to compete. But workday is on a priced enterprise divided by sales is the most expensive. Thats why i always said its the most expensive. I think these companies are going to keep correcting. Going to keep correcting because insiders want to go. Theyve got the wrong shareholder base. But they are not workday is not a moneylosing company. It has operating cash flow. It can do the job, but the stocks not done falling yet. It will bounce if youre in it and you want to get out, you can get out at a higher price than you got out today. Too big to fail and too big to manage . These big Bank Problems have seen business as usual. Regardless of how cheap the cohort looks, at least for now, take a pass. For all that the real banks. Up next, millions of americans will head out for r r this summer. Is there a way to invest . Dont move, more mad money after the break. And later like its 1999 . Cher had the hottest song. And dot com stocks were dancing all over wall street. Market had a record day. But it wasnt long until the bubble burst on the entire party. Will some of todays biggest momentum names suffer the same fate . Fate . [ male announcer ] the Wright Brothers started in a garage. Mattel started in a garage. Disney started in a garage. Amazon started in a garage. The ramones started in a garage. My point . Some of the most innovative things in the world come out of american garages. Introducing the lighter, faster cadillac cts. 2014 motor trend car of the year. Aint garages great . For 175 dollars a month . So our business can be on at ts network yup. All five of you for 175. Our clients need a lot of attention. Theres unlimited talk and text. Were working deals all day. You get 10 gigabytes of data to share. What about expansion potential . Add a line anytime for 15 bucks a month. Low dues. Great terms. Lets close. New at t mobile share value plans. Our best value plans ever for business. [ banker ] sydney needed some Financial Guidance so she could take her dream to the next level. So we talked about her options. Her valuable assets were staying. And selling her car wouldnt fly. We helped sydney manage her debt and prioritize her goals, so she could really turn up the volume on her dreams today. And tomorrow. So lets see what we can do about that. Remodel. Motorcycle. [ female announcer ] some questions take more than a bank. They take a banker. Make a my financial priorities appointment today. Because when people talk, great things happen. Theres something very important you have to know about the once beloved momentum names. Many of these companies are not necessarily responsible for their own weaknesses. Just like in 2000, a lot of weakhanded shareholders who bought the stocks because they were going higher. A huge number went out because they never had a reason for owning these names in the first place. But how much longer will these stocks have to get punished that are making money . Ill get to that later in the show. For now, a specific example, take homeaway. I thin

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