Transcripts For CNBC Mad Money 20140515 : vimarsana.com

CNBC Mad Money May 15, 2014

Vicious show today. Dow down more than that at one point. S p dropping 1 . And nasdaq dropping. Why dont you say its all over. Why dont we just say too dangerous for me . Ill tell you why. In my world, there is no it. Theres no it. Were not trading it. Were not investing in it. There may be fewer good stocks for now meaning that we have more stocks prone to weakness but the idea that were finished, caput, that sort of thinking doesnt work for me. It shouldnt work for you. In a moment where the stock market is deemed dangerous by a terrific Hedge Fund Manager, let me explain why thats too simplistic to hold up under any close scrutiny and why im a huge fan of him and his work. More on that later. I still prefer dealing with and trying to evaluate the appendages of individual companies. Viewers understand i turned violently for a good portion of the market for some time. Namely the momentum stocks grounded in the potential for continued high sales. I dont care for these stocks because why theyre more doubtable than the straw made houses of the dreaded year 2000, todays high crop of flyers are made of wood and not brick. And the fabled story of the three little pigs with the have lan reconfigured, i believe the big bad bear can still huff and puff and throe blow these wood houses down. But what about houses made of brick . Meaning inexpensive stocks with solid dividends or Growth Companies with terrific catalyst or merger acquisitions or break up opportunities. I think when youre inside those as many of you are now, sure, its frightening to hear the howling of the bear and feel his heart breath as he attempts to knockdown the stocks. Many people will try to make a break for it in the usual style they teach you at bear somethch. Something i took while i was in alaska. You dont need to outrun the bear. You just need to outrun your fellow sellers. It could continue tomorrow even how long we have been going higher. Im not choosing the homily of the three little pigs. Bulls make money, bears make money, and pigs, slaughtered. Its natural to be tagged with the pig appolation. Its the thesis he propounds if you bother to read through what he said. At the risk of trying to explain why we even have to contend with the bear, lets go over the reasons were huddled in the brick house to begin with. First, can we stipulate this market has gone up a ton . I even trotted out the nursery rhyme off the charts a few days ago. But i have been addiment that its a much better watch word. Doesnt rhyme well. Sell overvalued stocks in may and go away. I dont think its too late to sell the momentum plays. Many of which were bouncing at the end of the day and will probably go up tomorrow. It will stop but it will stop when the Companies Start merging, insiders start buying and the selling evaporates. None of these have happened yet. It will. Its not just the fact that the market has gotten so high that its entirely logical for the people to be ringing the register all over the place. We also have the real frightened gender bond market thats much bigger than the stock market. Thats the bond market which i keep talking about nightly now. The house of pain. We have disturbing Inflation Numbers yesterday that should have sent bonds lower and Interest Rates higher. It didnt happen. I said thats something you can get a square peg fitting into a round hole. People indeed are getting hired again. Sorry i like that. Now that process of hiring almost always accelerated hiring almost always causes Interest Rates to rise. But today it was met with more decline in rates. Thats a size 15 foot fitting into a size 9 pair of jordans. Not supposed to happen. People freak out and sell stocks on that like they have sold in lock step as they spin scenarios that can explain this anomaly. Its a benign scenario that rates are going down because of a shortage of high quality bonds. If you have ever traded as i have you can buy spanish bonds as the bond of the united states. Pick up the phone. Money can go from country to country so freely its like bonds without borders. But you have to ask yourself why would you buy a spainish or italian bond with the same yield as a u. S. Bond knowing that the full faith and credit of those countries isnt anywhere near as good as the united states. Again, to simplify it because i need you to understand bonds and people are turned off by them constantly. I dont care. I have to get you to understand this. Why would you buy a kmart suit when you can buy one at neimanmarcus or nordstrom for for the same price . Who would do such thing . Certainly not european corporations or rich people for that matter. My explanation can still only be part of the reason because this move is so unprecedented. So we default to the demand side where we have evidence. First walmart where Something Like 100 Million People shop. Reported disappointing earnings today. Throw in the bond mix and jcpenney a good money and a spectacular number from nordstrom do question walmarts execution and theres much less demand for mortgage money. Maybe it stays that way although i always say it takes two to n tango. Now lets go back to the three little pigs anlage. It makes too much sense to leave it hanging there. Why do i think that a brick house kind of stock will keep you from getting crushed by the housing related weakness . Housing is only 10 of the economy. Last time i interviewed former secretary treasurer who talked about the break down in sub prime lending. Perhaps because were so scarred by that debacle were now ascribing more worry to housing as it deserves. I say even if thats the case, the bottom line is that if you own stocks with good dividends, excellent Balance Sheets and inexpensive evaluations that i trace out nightly here on mad money, accept the roaring of the bear. Dont try to outrun it. Sit tight knowing you have cash and are going o to get blown around a bit and still come out safe on the other side. Jack in california. Jack. Hey, jim. Thanks for all the great advice you give us and help us. Question came to mind the other day when i saw the merger wean hillshire or the Pinnacle Foods and i know that youre a big fan of white wave foods. Yeah. Greg ingles went over there to run it and hes fabulous. What about dean . Is dean totally not attractive here . I know milk prices, wholesale milk thing is killing them. Jack, dean milk is a commodity a lot like milk. Theres nothing proprietary about it. I dont want to own dean foods. I hi that you have a situation where you have a company not like dean foods and white wave. They tried to get down below 30 today and i said buy buy buy. Caller booyah from charlotte, north carolina. Love charlotte. Caller given the ipo what is a good point for zoes kitchen with unique concept. Im watching grub hub and zoes kitchen and chipotle all the time and i say that zoes kitchen is a phenomenon. You can own it for now but it feels a little too much like pot belly and noodles and company so dont count on me to be in there with you. You have to grin and bear the bears. You might get blown around a bit but ill help you get out safe from the other side. Canada is not just the birth place of bieber. It may be home to the best stock youve ever heard of. Plus a Billionaire Hedge Fund manag managers call for caution. Mad money is back after the break. Coming up, from blush to bleach, if you want to clean nup this market, you need the right formula to meet the red arrows. A unique mix of cosmetics and cleaning supplies that can help your portfolio stay in the right shade. Dont miss a second of mad money. Follow jimcramer on twitter. Have a question, tweet cramer, madtweets. Send jim an email t tto madmoney to madmoney cnbc. Com or give us a call. Miss something . Head to madmoney. Cnbc. Com. We needed 30 new hires for our call center. Im spending too much time hiring and not enough time in my kitchen. [ female announcer ] need to hire fast . Go to ziprecruiter. Com and post your job to over 30 of the webs leading job boards with a single click; then simply select the best candidates from one easy to review list. You put up one post and the next day you have all these candidates. Makes my job a lot easier. [ female announcer ] over 100,000 businesses have already used zip recruiter and now you can use zip recruiter for free at a special site for tv viewers; go to ziprecruiter. Com offer2. At a special site for tv viewers; all stations come over to mithis is for real this time. Step seven point two one two. Verify and lock. Command is locked. Five seconds. Three, two, one. Standing by for capture. The most Innovative Software on the planet. Dragon is captured. Is connecting todays leading companies to places beyond it. Siemens. Answers. In a wake of a day like this one where the whole market got slammed, i think this is a terrific moment to search for Bargain Basement stocks that actually represent real value. For example, we know the oil patch has been on fire lately but what if i told you there was an integrated oil company with a stock that dramatically lagged the rest of the industry even though it has incredible assets and i believe enormous upside. Talk about why i never mention it on the show. The symbol is charlie, victor, eddie. Canadian integrated oil in 2009 when canada spun off its oil assets in order to become a pure play on natural gas. Not that smart of a decision but worked out for everybody. We spent a lot of time on this show highlighting the big american oil lines and the rebirth of the basin. But theres another gigantic source of crude oil in north america and thats the Canadian Oil Sands with some of the best assets in the region. It yields 3. 4 right here. Yet over the past 12 months its been a total dog. Stocks down 5 year over year. Toronto Stock Exchange energy index, the benchmark which captures the performance of the canadian oil and gas has captured 5 over the period. It is generating greater returns on capital than its competitors with lower cost but right now the stock is trading in line with the others despite its superior numbers. What has held this one back. Why should we now play catch up . For starters, 2013 was a stuff start for these guys. Company tried to make a move on oil in canada and that proved to be a disappointment. More importantly, they have two places and one foster creek had serious operational issues last year. To understand the problems you need to understand the process of getting oil out of oil sands. They use High Pressure steam to help pump out heavy crude. The oil they were producing wasnt flowing as smoothly as anticipated. They had an abundance of steam being wasted. This lead to a series of disappointing numbers. However, theyre drilling more wells to get this under control. The company is execute on this plan and get its foster creek project working properly but the market is taking a wait and see approach which is why the stock has been such a bow wow. At this point though i think the down side will be totally baked into the stock if it just falls back to the 25 and change with a 23. 8 yield. Thats the magic trampoline given the Interest Rate competition. On the other hand, if they can deliver on its promised improvements, the upside could be fantastic. I know what many of you are thinking. Youre thinking, cramer, why would we want to buy a Canadian Oil Company when its abundantly clear when the pipeline to bring the crew down from canada is dead as long as president obama is in the white house . Isnt that a huge blow to all the canadian players that want to pipe their oil to the gulf coast . In truth, the possibility of permanent delay does mean actually next to nothing to them. Even as the consensus seems to say its a killer. They have more than enough ways to send their oil where ever they want to. They have been using the railroads to bring its oil to the coast where it can be exp t exported overseas and they have greater Pipeline Capacity than other producers and much more is coming soon. And weve seen a ton of other pipelines being built. Theyre not going to let our government derail their most important industry. Now for the negatives. They hold 50 operating interest in two major oil sands prospects. The foster creek and Christina Lake with conoco owning the other half of both. Good company, conoco. Great stock since the quarter. Despite the problems at foster creek these projects have some of the best metrics with industry leading steam to oil ratios with oil sands you use steam to help pump out the heavy crude and they ramped up faster than the average oil sands. They believe it can grow production at foster creek and Christina Lake pipe 14 annually. Were seeing some of that but for these big Dog Companies thats extraordinary. Thats extraordinary up in canada. On top of that theyre moving to new areas as well. They have an Oil Sands Project expected to be by 2017. Theyre waiting on approval for telephone lake. Grand rapids project could be as much as 180,000 barrels although this wont be online until 2017. It has a conventional portfolio. Natural gas, light, medium, and heavy crude but these prospects represent the real Growth Opportunity here and theyre staggering. One thing about heavy oil is that its price tends to be volatile. Thats why i like they hold 50 in heavy Oil Refineries in texas. Because when the price of heavy crude comes down its the refiners that benefit. Its a natural hedge against any weakness and of course for some reason if they cant get the stock to move higher, management can always spin off the refining marketing side of the business and become more of a pure play on exploration production. All in all, i dont think theyre getting enough credit for its assets. I know theres the big foster creek project last year. The company is back on track on that. Theyre above the 100 to 110,000 barrel a day forecast. And if you didnt own it for the debacle what do you care about they have one. They used to trade at substantial premium to the other oils. Now its just in line in part because of the keystone and in part because of the operational issues i mentioned. I think the issues are behind them. They deserve to go back to a premium. I could see this 28 stock trading in the mid 30s by the end of the year. 20 gain and after that i dont think 40 is farfetched. Let me give you the bottom line here, theyre not going to be stopped because we refuse to build the pipeline and i believe its the best way to play this group. Company has perfect assets, turning around and best of all its paying you a 3. 4 yield. That could serve as a nice cushion in this low Interest Rate environment. David in illinois. Caller jim, first time all,er. I love the show. Thank you. Caller im calling about hk. Its been up quite a bit. Do you think theyll sell the company soon. I recommended a stock that looked so bad. I think the stock is going to hold in. I think theres too much debt but i thinks back from the dead. How about we leave it that way. Digging for gold, look no further than up north. New stock were talking about. Canadian, damaged by the pipeline of keystone, no. Terrific upside. Paying you to wait. Still to come, are you a bleach or a blush investor . Dont use one without the other well, anyway, not knowing the difference could cost you. Stick around. Ill help you figure it out. Mad money is back after the break. You, my friend are a master of diversification. Who would have thought three cheese lasagna would go with chocolate cake and ceviche . The same guy who thought that small caps and bond funds would go with a merging markets. Its a masterpiece. Thanks. Clearly you are type e. You made it phil. Welcome home. Now whats our strategy with the fondue . Diversifying your portfolio . E trade gives you the tools and resources to get it right. Are you type e . After a really hideous day where the average got crushed, a nutdy day where Interest Rates plummeted even though we saw the best jobs number in seven years and got more confirmation that inflation is heating up. I think we need to ask ourselves whether sexy has gone out of style in the stock market for good. In other words do investors favor boring put you to sleep stocks over anything with the slightest amount of excitement . Forget the softwares thats a disservice to your portfolio stocks or any other high flyers. They held up better than most in the on slot rallying them to the bell. Were not talking about the difference to stocks with sex appeal or stocks like taking a double dose of ambien. I mean something a lot more simple. Lets do an easy comparison we all understand. Take the soft goods companies. Its synonymous with safety. If particular i want you to consider estee lauder. Make up, perfume, skin care and hair Care Products versus color rex. The slow growing cats and dogs company that makes everything from clorox bleach and cleaning products to personal Care Products, Hidden Valley dressing and charcoal. While clorox missed numbers on the top and bottom line, estee lauder blew away the estimates. Yet they are each down a little less than 5 and 3 respectively for the year. Granted they jump 3 points from 72 to 75 the day it reported but pulled back since then. Its fallen back where it was before that great color. Clorox in the other hand dropped less than a dollar after its bad miss. Its been trading sideways ever since. What exactly is happening here . Shouldnt stocks of companies that perform better than the stocks that miss numbers especially in the same sector . Allow me to explain. I think theres a good case to be made for buying both stocks. Thats not the point here. The fact that theyre not dramatically outperforming clorox is one more example of how this market prefers secure, dependable value stocks with good dividends over sexy growth names. Clorox may not deliver stellar numbers but has a 3. 3 yield which is becoming more attractive as Interest Rates continue to plummet. Who wants to own 10 year treasuries. Even the 30yearold gives you a 3. 3 same as clorox. But the term for clorox pay out is a good deal higher than a 30 year treasury. They have a lot going for

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