Transcripts For CNBC Mad Money 20140827 : vimarsana.com

CNBC Mad Money August 27, 2014

Widely respected naysayers. Sell, sell, sell keep a system that stocks are doomed to go lower, perhaps much lower. A pessimistic drumbeat that gets amplified across tv, print and the web. Regardless of where stock are trade or how the economy might actually be doing and its totally out of sync with reality. In fact, sometimes i wonder if many of the professional bears are living in an alternate universe. One where theyve actually been right rather than consistently been wrong and just the 20 months from midnovember 2012 to midjuly of 2014, the s p 500 rallied 50 including dividends and a performance thats downright spectacular. If you simply bet on the market as a whole via the s p 500 index fund. Youve made money hand over fist. No time and inclination . Fine. S p fund. In the past, this bull run might have inspired some euphoria. These days it only seems to inspire more skepticism. Modicum of skepticism is always healthy, but i find the widespread fear and loathing of this market to be pathological. During a period when picking winners has been like shooting fish in a barrel and an overabundance is the one thing thats constantly kept you from making money. As i explain in get rich carefully, sometimes its possible to get rich and thats coming from me, one of the cynical figures on television. As i was preparing to write the book, i was made by my Charitable Trust along with the bulletins that we send in with actionable orders. Com where you can follow every move the trust makes and we get to buy ahead of when we pull the trigger and believe me, its better than when we do it and as i was going over the Charitable Trusts trying to identify my mistakes so you dont have to repeat themselves yourselves, i notice that my good judgment may overcome by excessive skepticism. Sometimes they get too fearful or too negative because i didnt believe management would get time for the company that was capable of navigating the waters of a world economy. In short, there were moments when i didnt give the ceos of very wellrun companies enough credit in the legions of professional naysayers and my skepticism cost the trust money. I guess you could say i was worn down by negativity. Of course, you need a certain degree of skepticism to be a good investor, but in an era when were bombarded with nonstop negativity thats impervious to the facts in terms of the longterm strength, in keeping this skepticism in check can pay off big time especially when youre dealing with highquality companies that everyone else is overly skeptical about. In other words when a well run business hit as i speed bump, dont get carried away and act like its slammed into a retaining wall and cause a 12 of had car pile up. Its easy to have your fears overwhelm your judgment which is why there is a whole chapter explaining how to check your emotions at the door. Let me give you a personal example so you can understand what i mean and you can remember them. 2012, do you remember walgreens picked a fight with express scripts . At the time i had been a huge fan of wags, wag is the ticker symbol. Under the leadership the ceo greg watson especially after they bought duane reed and beautifully refurbished those Stores Including the one next to me when i do squawk on the street in the morning and after the tiff with customers that hired express crypts we s scri rivals got slammed to low 30s and in june of 2012, watson did the unthinkable. He shelled out 6. 7 billion and the European Health and beauty retailer. Wag dropped 6 on the news and at the same time, the company over the new duane reed, 150 from my own store and for me that was the last store right next to the first store. As walgreens got pummeled down to the high 20 area and i said to watson theyd gotten too aggressive and had overexpanded and possibly bitten off more than they can chew with the alliance boost transaction. Right after i made those comments watson called me and walked me through the alliance deal. He explained why he had to stick to his guns and defended opening the new duane reed location which was a different street with heavy tourist traffic and therefore he said its not going to cannibalize the old store. As much as i admired watson there was no way he could pull this off and with wag at 20, telling viewers it was too risk toehold. As it turns out, that was almost at the exact bottom in walgreens stock. Shortly after i went negative, watson settled the war with express scripts on terms that were wildly favorable to walgreens. He announced a Ground Breaking deal with amerisourcebergen, another provider that gave this company a huge boost in profitability while lowering the price of drugs for its customers and plus the integration, fantastic. Walgreens hasnt looked back since and since june 2012, this stock has more than doubled and i was way too skeptical and urging people to dump the stock with excellent management after the shares had been crushed. I let my fears get the better of me. I knew he was a visionary, and i was too scared to see the opportunities. Now these days, lots of people believe that you cant be critical you have in of executives and that you always have to doubt in order to make money and im telling you, its wrong. Sometimes skepticism doesnt pay off. One time i was a major on backer of shaw group and thats a huge engineering and Construction Company that was famous for building power plants especially Nuclear Power plants and he was the shaw ceo back then and it was the ceo that we visited Tulane University with. Predictions i believe that because of his top notch track record, but then when the tragic Fukushima Nuclear disaster hit japan in 2011, the Worst Nuclear Accident since chernobyl, i figured it would drive a host of nails into the coffin. Shareholders should have faith in his company. I thought he was being a poll ana. What did i do . I pulled my buy recommendation. I was too skeptical and sure enough in the beginning of 2013, shaw sold has to cbi for 3 billion and it was a premium to where the stock was trading and well above where i told people to sell it. 72 premium. How could i have doubted this man . In short, i underestimated bernards resolve and worse, his knowledge about what could happen for his own business and i was playing the skeptical know it it all and because of it many of you may have missed out on an enormous swim. Most ceos especially the good ones do know more about their companies than anybody else out there and you ignore the good ones at your own peril. Heres the bottom line, remember not to let your skepticism run away with you especially in the case of high quality dumcompani. And i suggest you pick up a copy of get rich carefully about how to avoid the emotionally driven stakes that investors make. Believe me, ive made plenty of them and now its my job to stop you from repeating meyer rors. Cecilia in new york, hi, jim, great show. Thank you. Can you help me as im retirement age, im interested in no load index funds, but when you look at the list, i dont really know and im approaching retirement age. Okay. So you should just, you can buy the etf, the spx etf and that will be fine and vanguard always had low fees and i like to give them credit. Lets go to pat in michigan, please. Pat . Hi, jim. Hi, pat. Id like first off, id like to send a big booyah to you and your staff. Thank you. Okay. My question is i have a roth, and im looking to diversify into emerging markets. Yeah. Okay. Im not a big fan of emerging markets because people tend to buy them high and they sell them low, but i am a fan of putting 10 of your money in a speculation, okay . Emerging markets is a speculation that could qualify for the 10 , but that would be it it. You cant do any other speculating if you buy emerging markets. Doubting thomas . A bit of skepticism is healthy, but there is such a thing as being too skeptical. Dont let your fears eat your potential for profits and im here to let you learn from my mistakes. Mad money will be right back. Dont miss a second of mad money, follow jimcramer on twitter. Have a question . Tweet cramer, madtweets. Send jim an email to madmoney cnbc. Com or give us a call at 1800743cnbc. Miss something . Head to madmoney. Cnbc. Com. In a world thats changing faster than ever, we believe outshining the competition tomorrow quires challenging your Business Inside and out today. At cognizant, we help forwardlooking Companies Run better and run different to give your customers every reason to keep looking for you. So if youre ready to see opportunities and see them through, we say lets get to work. Because the future belongs to those who challenge the present. [ male announcer ] during the cadillac summers best event, lease this 2014 ats for around 299 a month. Hurry in this exceptional offer ends soon. You want to rack up terrific gains as an investors, thats what mad money in the end is all about. Investing, not short term trading and you have to be willing to stick by your guns or as i put it in get rich carefully, you have to believe in yourself or at least in your own judgment in order to be a good investor. Hear me out before you change the channel. I realize this sounds like im dispensing a lot of, i dont know, lets call it new age mindful nonsense. Actually, mindful is a good word, im trying to put it out there. There is prakt dal money managing advice. What do i mean saying true to your convicts and if you believe in the company dont lose your resolve just because the stock goes lower or the negativity keeps saying its a sell. Take a page from the tom petty playbook. Dont back down. I know it it could be incredibly difficult to stick with a stock thats getting pounded. No matter how Much Research youve done and how much faith you have in the underlying can company, i know it because ive been there myself and ive made the mistake of backing down from stocks i believed in just when i should have been. Buy, buy, buy like i told you when i was preparing get rich carefully i looked back at the trades in my Charitable Trust, remember, its real time over the previous five years. The the idea being that i wanted to analyze my errors objectively and warn you about them so you wouldnt have to repeat these same mistakes yourself and thats the essence of what the product is about and one of the trusts biggest blunders was losing our nerve with bed, bath and beyond. Letty moo give you a condensed version of what happened because boy, was it ever the house of pain. We had had the trust back in the fall of 2012 and its a chain ive always adored and i love going shopping there and i love the Regional National expansion story, but the stock was expensive so i said ill weight for a pullback. Bed bath reported a number that displeased wall street and the stock quickly plummeted from 75 to 59. But bed, bath and beyonds management said they would get the business back on track and i believed them. The fundamentals seemed solid, but by the time we were ready to pull the trigger bed bath had already started rebounding and rebounding like crazy so we took a pass and decided that the next time bed bath and beyond sold off wed be ready to pounce. Buy, buy, buy the stock ran back up to 71. But the next time bed bath reported, yep, another blah number from this company and people started talking that maybe there was something wrong. Maybe the company is being amazoned, meaning that customers were using it as a showroom and ordering the products off the web and once again the stock knot pounded. The kind of thing you buy at bed bath and beyond like my one and springfield new jersey, they arent the kind of things you order from amazon, for heavens sake and they start the the position just as i promised myself i would. Its a large position for the trust and after a quick reality from 61 to 63, guess what . We started to hear the amazon rumblings again. At first i didnt let them bother me and id done the homework and i knew it was worth more than what the stock was selling for. The Charitable Trust bought more order to get a better cost basis and dropped another two points. Then the analyst picked up the bearish drumbeat and talking about increased couponing and how rusent acquisitions wasnt working. It seemed that someone had something bad to say about bed, bath and beyond and it soon became one of the largest positions and next thing you know its november of 2012 and while the trust was beating averages, bed bath was weighing on us, trading at 55 and the lower cost basis and frankly, i just couldnt take it anymore. Finally, we got some lift for a couple of days with the stock trading about half way back up to where we first bought it and we were so overjoyed, Stephanie Lang and i that we decided enough already lets just take the darn hit and be happy we got out of this one alive so we sold the whole position. I was so happy. Like a piano had been lifted from my shoulders. I patted myself on the back for not waiting to sell it at the low and instead of waiting for it. Yeah the numbers were up again and nothing to write home about, and this time the stock didnt go down. I knew. I knew. Classic sign of a bottom. Something i tell you about in get rich carefully, but we ignored it and we didnt start a new position in the stock. We were too traumatized to stick to our bed, bath and beyond guns. Next thing you know, yeah, it was are roaring and passing the price where we sold it and where we first bought it and after one analyst after another who downgraded it changed their minds and just what we wanted to try to catch it ran all of the way up to 80 before it peaked about a year later at this point the stock went to its old ways. Theres more than one takeaway here. We liked bed bath when the analysts hated. Thats all good and thats perfect as as you know the company is on course for improvement and each time moving their stock higher and the continual upgrades moved the stock from undervalued to reasonable value and ultimately to overvaluation where it promptly collapsed back after the reports. We have had had the courage to ride more of that wave than just the first few points given the hard fought way wed approached it and if we hadnt lost our nerve, bed bath would have been one of the trusts greatest hits for the year. As i look over the long list of stocks we sold since the book came out, National Oil Well and timkin. We bought them while wall street was lukewarm and then the stocks got hit. The analysts went decidedly negative and we bought more only to unload those shares when they got slightly above our average basis into profitability. Yet we sold precisely when the fund was starting and as analysts recognize that the transformation at national oil were real and the breakups bountiful and by that time, sadly, we were long gone. Let me give you the bottom line. Never sell a stock just because its going lower and you cant take the pain like the doubting analysts who seemed desperate to capitulate as the stock goes lower rather than partake in the opportunity. If youve done the homework as we did and if you keep checking as we did and if the story isnt wildly off the rails, stay long and continue to own, have some conviction based on your own homework and not the homework of scaredy cat and analysts and dont forget once it starts moving in your direction and stuck in the mud you might end up selling it at nearly the worst possible moment like my Charitable Trust did with bed bath and beyond and two stocks that remain strong buys today, that we seemingly battle forever tim kin as well as the breakup progeny. Its always better to be patient, people, sometimes letting it ride is the single best thing you can do. After the break ill try to make you more money. From 2000 to 2011, on average 17 manufacturers a day shut down in america. Theres no reason we cant manufacture in the united states. Here at timbuk2, we make more than 70,000 custom bags a year, right here in san francisco. We knew we needed to grow internationally, we also knew that it was much more complicated to deal with. I cant imagine having executed what weve executed without having citi side by side with us. Their global expertise was critical to our International Expansion into asia, into europe and into canada. So today, a customer can walk into our store in singapore, will design a custom bag and that customer will have that American Made bag within a few days in singapore. Citi has helped us expand our manufacturing facility; the company has doubled in size since 2007. If it can be done here in san francisco, it can be done anywhere in america. The next time we get a broad, market wide pullback. Sell, sell, sell, sell. Or some scary geopolitical eve event, remember the selloffs if they involve a decline of a couple of percent could be terrific buying opportunities for the big picture themes im always telling you about. Which themes . In get rich carefully i highlight sen of them that i believe are built to last. Themes where i think you can keep going back to the well every time we get hit because the stories arent going away any time soon. I spent a lot of time talking about the american oil and gas renaissance in the show and thats one of them, but tonight i want to single out a few that doesnt get enough attention. Im referring to the rally, continual will rally and success of what i call Stealth Technology stocks. What do i mean by stealth tech . We live in an era where practically everyone believes in the power of technology for good or ill, but as i describe in qwest get rich carefully, i think they find tech in all of the wrong places. They want them in servers or the cloud. Inon nations are the heart and soul of innovation. You find it, in products that serve genuine needs to Old School Tech doesnt hold a tandem to. Whats the difference between a tech stock and a stealth tech stock . Its easy. The market has no trouble spotting innovation of traditional tech companies, but it has a ton of trouble noticing the innovation from more hum drum areas like apparel, restaurants, consumer packaged goods and because the market doesnt recognize the innovation, the stocks of these companies are therefore traded at an undeserved discount. These companies with real innovation fueling the growth, thats what we need and its why i keep thinking youve got to come back to these names even in the market takes a dramatic turn for the worse because theyve had a history of turning back. More specifically, im referring to companies that are using proprietary technology to invent entirely new ma

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