Transcripts For CNBC Mad Money 20141211 : vimarsana.com

CNBC Mad Money December 11, 2014

The story totally captured the scythe geist of yesterdays trader but missed the theme of this mornings rally with the dow up 225 points. Cheap gas lean might repeal, might because we gave upmost of the days gains when still one more decline in crude this tile in the last minutes of trading curtailed the stock market rally. Dow advancing 6 three points and s p climbing and nasdaq jumping. 52 . Still in the block. A lot of consumer oriented stocks performed fabulously. Remember the battle here. Will the credit wows of the new stretched American Oil Companies chi bosch the strength that should come from shoppers who are benefitting enormously from a cheap gasoline stimlaos plan better than anyone i see the government offer or to put it in terms we can understand. Will the consumer cavalry arrive in time to save the pilgrim economy from the vagaries of the wildcatters with oil continuing to come down as it did today dropping another 1. 50 closed below 60. We didnt see who would have the upper hand in this session. The cavalry arrived at 8 30 a. M. In the form of a tremendous number. 7 growth in retail sales. From the month of november, guys, i know that sounds thats a fabulous gain. Far more than people expect and you can pin it right on better employment and much lower gasoline prices than just a few months ago, as much as a dollar less. Every stock that got hammered yesterday blossomed today. At least for most of the day. Although, gains shrank when oil broke down. Not only spurring the mornings positive action. Stop in the gloom of yesterdays trading, you might not have noticed it but american express, the biggest Credit Card Company said cyber monday, the monday following thanksgiving was the best day ever for credit card spending. Now wait a second, thats not some National Federation of retailers survey and why we cant take back the pes msimism and scary headlines, the ones that threw you off the scent of the bull you have to be impre impress impressed. Second, let et be known this is improving. Restoration hardware, rh had a 22 gain in samestore sales. Companies reaching 4 to 5 billion in revenue passion anytime he is got a story so magnificent and worth telling he presented the Conference Call for the quarter as in video. Yes, you heard me right, the Conference Call in video form. The darn thing was so awesome it was stock app analysts goose bumps. I dont know if i want to say anymore about it because i have to tell you, it was the Conference Call equivalent of homeland for retail. I dont want to spoil it for you. I demand you watch it. You cant invest in Restoration Hardware until you do and trust me, you want to invest in the stock or the schizophrenic trading in lou lou lemon. Which initially plunged when reported weak same store sales this morning but soared when management made it clear numerous merchandise is selling well and could have done better if it was not for dock workers hence the 9 rally in this stock. Maybe i should call it once stock. I dont know, i dont know if its the faulty anti stink pants or what, but i smell a bottom. Of course, not everyone in retail is being driven by better sales. Dont you have to sit up and take notice when an activist acquires stakes and staples and office depot in no doubt it merged something weve been favoring here. Its a sign things have gotten good enough there is not a lot of risk to the downside because remember when i told you, activists dont like to take chances these days. They like to buy winners, winners win and let me be boring for a second. The usual suspects, home depot, lows, target rallied. Dont forget the move if oil stays down and comparisons last year when the weather was bad. The consumer was dealing with pain at the pump will be nothing short of spectacular. The third sign that the consumer strength produces wows at 56 of lending club, which brings lenders and borrowers together over the internet with the need for traditional bank. Consider it crowd source lending. The fact there is this much enthusiasm without the credit risk i found amazingly positive. The fourth one, the forth good news was initially a negative. Im talking about the Conference Call yesterday afternoon from Toll Brothers that hammered the stock and brought downgrades that were silly. The best builder of luxury homes reported a strong number then gave guidance that indicated longer term that the Housing Market will get stronger but analysts didnt talk about the notion demand is rising and over the long run its assured by population growth, no, the next. Im sure the markets, too. Pretty much calling the bottom. You want to downgrade when the company has enough firepower . Be my guest but what about a twoyear perspective . I know im a dinosaur, call me old fashioned. Fifth, we got the explosion in all things diniing popeyes, fies fiesta, Cracker Barrel and uncollidiu including one ill talk about later, a grand slam. Its the change at the pump. Its playing out now. It wont be stopped by the belly flop that just bought at the top. Six, yesterday we were worried about the price war among carriers,ed to today a weak ea number. Stock roared. Lets not forget if retail is strong, sales at gadgets will be strong and western digital, hp, all these positives call less to give us a terrific rally and it would have been a fabulous day if oil hasnt broken down. Here is my bottom line. If 70 of the economy gets stronger because of the decline in gasoline, ill bet that Huge Positive can ultimately triumph the looming and serious credit woes as two continue this titanic clash that gets more and more bloody and gruesome as it plunges deeper and deeper into the red down 45 . My money is saving the day, although not before oils collapse crushes more than a few pilgrims. Pilgrims. Larry in iowa, larry . Caller hi, mr. Cramer. How are you doing . Caller first of all, sorry about your father. My thoughts and prayers are with you. Thank you. A tribute, a brief one. Ill focus on that in a second. Whats up . Caller thank you. First of all, thanks for your call and retl about 18 months ago, i took your advice on that one and done very well over the last year and a half. Terrific. Caller my question, my question is john deere, what can you tell me about john deere going into 2015 . One we should buy, sell, hold on to . I will tell you, i think deere bottomed by commodities will be under pressure. I heard a lot of positive how food inflation which has been bad might come down. Im not a buyer of deere until it goes to 82. Agco is struggling. If it started going up i would feel more confident. I need to speak to adam in the farm land of america, adam . I think youre the aaron rogers of the stock market. Really . Caller yeah. If i picked aaron rogers in fantasy i would still be in the hunt. Caller i noticed my stock was up a few percent today. What do you think of my play call to buy iuy Lannet Company . Lannet. I have historically not liked the generics but parigo made me change my mind. I like your idea of buying this philadelphia based company very much, very much. Hey, i lost some weight. Good to lose weight. Anyway, oh, aaron rogers, aaron rogers, oh, okay, yes, definitely aaron lyncheraron ly. Sure he lost some steam today but the recovery isnt as threatened as you think. If the economy gets stronger, that could be the pain were seeing from oil. It is painful. Dennys isnt just about going to score some grand slams for breakfast anymore. The american diner change is making changes like adding a 300dollar item to the menu but is wall street ready and a legal slow down is heating up and man, the outcome could have a big impact on the stock but first, the Oil Market Still isnt looking so hot so why are shares of exxon moving higher . I got the scoop that should shift your view of the oil patch, thats next, stick with the discount double check and stick with cramer. Dont miss a second of mad money. Follow at jim creamer on twitte. Hashtag mad tweets. Send jim an email to mad money. Cnbc. Com or give us a call. Miss something . Head to mad money. Cnbc. Com. Wait a sec, what is chexxon doing up today when oil got hit again . Off 45 for the year, shouldnt exxon have been hammered one more time . Or are people starting to recognize that while all the oil stocks are losers, maybe some of them are going to lose a lot less marking cap than others because of strong cash management, terrific Balance Sheets and oil. Thats the definition of exxon. A company im not a fan of because it doesnt have Production Growth but a company able to do something about that lack of growth by pouncing on those who have great prospects and dont have the Balance Sheets anymore to exploit them. Ive been waiting for more Oil Stock Market oil to occur. Have cash, no cash and maybe after todays action its starting to happen. Here is my theory. There are just about 200 billion worth of high yield paper from the oil park borrowerings. We know there is plenty of direct loans from banks but half the bonds goes bad because oil is collapsing, half. Pretty worse case scenario, dont you think . Lets game it. What will happen . How about a production challenge Company Coming in and buying everything it wants in order to be able to increase the production, wouldnt that be something . Exxon is challenge in production and can continue to drill in or now pray the weak players. I think mop up a lot of debt as it picks up losers and come on top. What matters to me is i want to put this down and housing led recession where a huge percentage of all home loans made between 2005 and 2007 defaulted. Amazing. Making things worse the debt was all over the place and secured and synthetics and impossible to untake l. The debt is concentrated in a few companies with documented reserves. Nobody knew what to do with those default housing loans. There were 2 trillion in loan and it seeped to stop performing. The banks took homes they didnt want and those who bought housing debt who thought it was prime and wasnt, they got crushed because they reached for better yields than bonds can give you. Never reach for yield. It was a mess that nobody could figure out, and it did cause the great recession. Boy, is that ever not the case with this kind of debt . Remember, it is true some deals were done when oil was sky high. The over pays and that doesnt mean the assets were bad, it just means that cash flows from them may not be sustainable for the companies that borrowed money. Consider exxon as a potentially gigantic repo man that cobbles together whatever properties it wants and whatever it can take from the koreans or japanese or chinese take it and creates a domestic power house of unbelievable proportions. This is what awaits the high yield market and can help the banks with this debt. It will not happen overnight and we have to have the pain before the gain. So isnt this dangerous then . Whistling past the graveyard with my exxon analysis, i want to put into context what may not be as bad as others and saying as long as there are well capitalized players, there werent any in the housing industry. Those are well capitalized that needs a sets, there will be bids underneath and buys in distress making this potential debacle serious. Hurtful to stocks and companies but not a Systemic Risk to the country like the housing depression as so many bears think is the case. Lets take calls, bob in florida, bob . Caller jim, i want to thank you on teaching me to buy in increments and sell in increments. Thank you. Caller now i have a question that i bought when it was yielding 6 and as it went down, i bought more in wide scales, got some at 8 and now 10 yield. My question is under todays environment, do you think that yield is safe and two, if oil stays down at this level, will they start losing contracts and be forced to cut it . Okay, this is a great question. Stephanie link and i have been going over it. This and valley were two of the worst we had. I think the dividend is reasonably save. Any time i see a 10 dividend thats a red flag, in the end its in the drilling Platform Business so i have to tell you im taking a more negative view, and i want you to be careful because i dont think the yield is safe, i dont think the dividend is safe. There are too many contracts that will roll over in the next couple years and thats a tough decision and its already been a big loser. Richard in california, richard . Caller hi jim, i got your book, watch your show daily, its part of my dna. I like that. Caller yeah, aside from being a huge fan of yours, im a fan of leon cooperman and stuck in the oil patch with a couple of his and he and danberry going down . I dont care for either of those. I think that they can refinance perhaps but im not going to recommend those stocks. If oil were higher, obviously e mean look, if oil reverses, these will be stocks that come back but they are plays on the decline in oil and i cant recommend them. I just cant. A better oil environment, yes, but i cant recommend either here. Thats all i have to say about them. Sure, the Energy Crisis has the potential to be disastrous, i get that but may not be systemic. Could taking a bite out of dennys, the home of the grand slam is hitting it out of the park up more than 40 . Could the relief at the pump mean they will continue to bring in the bacon and networks flying high, since the summer ipo until rival cisco sued them. I got the reaction in the first tv interview and why not find out about the business, too, and ill make sure youre protected in mi diversified. Stay with cramer. Hi. Pete and jon najarian here in new york city outside of the nasdaq, where we bring you live daily market updates. And today, we have a very special free gift for you. So many viewers email us wanting to know our secrets on how we trade options. So we put our secrets into a new book. And if youre one of the first 250 people to call in right now and just cover shipping and handling, well send you a copy for free. Look at the rate of return weve made on some of our recent options trades, versus what we would have made had we just bought the stock. Theres no comparison. To make the best returns in todays market, you have to learn how to trade options. And our book will show you how to do it for free. Jon has been Trading Options for more than 30 years. Pete is one of the top 100 traders in the country. And our book will teach you how to trade options for free. So call now. [ male announcer ] call the number on your screen now for your free copy of jon and petes new book. Thats. see the number on your screen call now. You dont need to think about the energy that makes our lives possible. Because we do. Were exxonmobil and powering the world responsibly is our job. Because boiling an egg. Isnt as simple as just boiling an egg. Life takes energy. Energy lives here. After a fairly solid day for the stock market and a terrific one where the consumer spends extra dollars saved at the gas pump, let me tell you about a 10 small cap turnaround story that you may have missed in the excitement even though it could be the ideal stock for this environment, im talking about dennys. Yeah, denn. The restaurants, more line diners in the low to Single Digits dennys ran up 42 for 2014 with all those gains coming since the summer as the stock has been catapulted. Thats an incredible move. Some dare say a grand slam if not a grand slam breakfast. My late mothers favorite for a reference to my family but she did love the grand slam. So how has dennys managed to pull this off . How did this stock catch fire overnight and most important, can the term continue . First of all, when you take a step back and look at din knenn its a perfect play. It benefits from lower gas prices and they have more money in the pockets courtesy of the oil collapse and likely to spend some of that money eating at dennys with families when they otherwise might have stayed home. That explains a big part of the epic rally over the past few months and its gotten chic, too, to tell you the truth. Dennys didnt luck out and people are spending extra cash at dennys this company is working aggressively to make itself more attractive to consumers. They had been making small changes for years but it began when the board of directors brought in the new ceo in february of 2011. Since then miller made pretty big changes that are finally coming to fruition paying off big time. Dennys sold off Company Owned stores as franchises and monetizing the real estate and used proceeds to pay down the excessive debt load. I thought that debt load could have wiped them out then they refinanced the debt and perhaps most important dennys changed the image with consumers. For ages, this was the place to get the huge breakfast at low prices like me. Dennys is about serving three meals of comfort food a day and people are coming in for more than just breakfast. They are one quarter breakfast, one quarter dinner, one quarter after dinner. Americas diner is always open. Plus dennys is focussed on making the dine experience better by improving the speed of service, the taste of the food always a welcome audition, the overall atmosphere with the result that Guest Satisfaction increased on top of that. Dennys is focused on improving the quality of the food offer aing more healthy items like egg whites and turkey bacon. Holy cows thats dennys . Same store sales were anything but consistent. They were all over the place and an unhealthy menu generated barely free cash flow. Dennys finished the Third Straight year of positive system wide sales and more Health Focused generating more and more cash. Why recommend it now after the hefty move in the stock because the biggest part of the turn around is to come. Now that dennys cleaned up the balance sheet, the new plan is to do a major wave of remodelling, not just 10 of the stores owned but the franchises, many of which are contractionly obligated to remodel. Weve seen restaurant chains put these these make over initiatives before. I dont see why dennys should be different. Specifically, the company has gotten much more aggressive about the rollout of the heritage remodel image, which despite the name, has a much more contemporary feel. Already as of last quarter, 84 locations have been remodels including 40 of

© 2025 Vimarsana