Transcripts For CNBC Mad Money 20150320 : vimarsana.com

CNBC Mad Money March 20, 2015

Greed, for lack of a better word, is good. Sorry, michael douglas. Youre a good looking guy and fabulously a big fan of our show. But youre wrong. Greed is bad. Not good. We have such amazing gains here and you have to ask yourself if youve taken anything off the table yet. Think about it. This has been a real good run. And even if you are as bullish as i am dont you have to think about ringing the register on something . On anything . With the idea that if the market reverses youll have the cash to buy, buy, buy. I want you to just ponder it over the week. We took out a lot of highs today. Dow up s p 500 rockets, nasdaq up 0. 7 . Now look i am not saying i dont like it here. I think we have a right to run after a big, bad event. You know ive been bullish as all get out, urging you to buy every one of these dips we been having. Im just saying when you see these kinds of monster moving going mighter, you have to remember there are going to be speed bumps. When we hit those speed bumps, you need to have enough cash on the sidelines that you can take advantage of them. Or, are you going to be caught with your pants down having taken no profits at all . Thats not the way we roll in cramerica. All right, a mild admonition in mind. I thought about it all day. Lets see whats ahead for next week. First we know these days we need to see some china bounce just a little bounce please. Even a teeny weeny one in order to validate the valuation of these stocks. The hsbc manufacturing bmi, we need something north of 5. 1, remember that. You need 5. 1 in order to be able to make this thing tick. Or else i suspect we will open down on monday morning. Tuesday morning, giii which has beaten the numbers. Mccorm mick the staple spice company, another good buy. But the one to buy is sonic, which i just reiterated on yesterdays show. Its part of the restaurant trade that started the moment gasoline went below 3 and only gained steam. Unfortunately, sonic is also at its 52week high which means while weit can still go up, were hardly early. Wednesday, weve been behind paychex, the Payroll Processing company that im a proud client of in the mid 30s and its now at 51. There are so many analysts that dont care for the stock because they think the client base isnt growing fast enough and theres not enough money to be made on the float the interest paychex can make on the cash they hold while you wait to get your cash from your check. I think some analysts break ranks and go positive on paychex after the quarter even as they sat out a pretty good move. They want to get ahead of a fed rate hike. Also on wednesday, we have two companies disappointed cently and are being given a chance to redeem themselves. Five below and pvh. I have a predisposition to like both companys stocks down here. But theyre in the penalty box because of some bad misses and guidedowns. I know both are tempting arent they . However, this market rewards winners and punishing losers endlessly. So we have to be in wait and see mode for both these two companies. Thursday has a couple of real difficult ideas i want to puzzle over. The first is lulu lemon. This company has totally turned the corner which is why my Charitable Trust owns lulu lemon. We have a big gain in lulu. But were concerned about the california port slowdown that nike alluded to may have hurt this company. It hurt William Sonoma badly. So its possible it will dip. Why not sell ahead . Wait a second, because the port story is temporary, and who knows if you can be nimble enough to get out and back in again. Unless youre a Hedge Fund Manager you wont have the ability to time things that perfectly. In fact, i think its an excellent buying opportunity as many short sellers seem to be betting against lulu precisely because of this well known port slowdown issue. It might make a solid moment to snatch some up if you get a chance. Then we hear from gamestop. This is a very controversial stop. Theres a monster short position. 44 of the float is short. Thats insane. You can understand where the bears are coming from though. People who now download video games the way they down load all software. However, i think we might be working on a good trade idea here. Buy take 2 interactive off of gamestops result. Theyve been hammered mercilessly. Weve got to have a new data point to justify pulling the trigger. On february 10, take 2 unveiled a game called evolve. If we hear anything on this game stop about evolve we might have a terrific entry point to buy take 2 interactive off the gamestop Conference Call. Next up blackberry reports on friday. Gunners think theres no way this company wont be bought by someone, anyone. I have a problem with that theory. On mad money i never support buying a stock on a takeover. The blackberry fundamentals are not good enough to bank on. Pass. Speaking of weakening fundamentals, last quarter from finish line was nothing to write home about. It never came back or looked back. A gunner might want to buy call option on the stock to protect themselves on the down side betting on if nike has a good one, finish line has to have a good one, too, right . Nike reported that great number last night. But that didnt work last time and finish line is too dependent on nike as a supplier for me to buy ahead of the quarter. All week well keel an eye on europe. One reason we rallied is because the dollar got weaker. Weve become convinced an conditioned to believe if the dollar gets stronger the entire stock market should go lower. So the flip side has become true, too. A weak dollar like today spurred by many companies, particularly the industrials. An amazing number of people are saying the dollar is still going to go higher and you know what i think its going to go higher. But if we get signs from europe next week that things are Getting Better over there, the dollar is going to get slammed again some more and that could lead to another wave of rally for our stocks. I think much more of this rally may have been realize than we even talked about. You know, germany and greece are making up, and thats whats cause pg the euro to get stronger. So keep an eye on europe all week for positive data. Because europe, like it or not, Still Matters tremendously. So let me give you the bottom line. Can this post federally continue . I dont see a lot of data in the way, and i do see some potentially positive earnings reports next week. Nevertheless, what im saying is please dont get greedy. We tend to forget how terrible the market was a week ago. So please ring the register on something, raise a little cash because just for the record this market is about as good as it can get. And that alone makes me concerned about the complacency that i now feel does abound after that fed meaning freed the bulls and let them stampede the bears to close out a very strong week. Adam in North Carolina adam. Caller hey, jim. I watched you and want to know you inspired me to get my mba. Thank you. Caller thank you for the inspiration you provide to everyone out there. Congratulations on ten years. Youre terrific. Thank you. Caller i know how you have on armon, but i want to know as what your thought is on auto lid in the car market. Its good. But youre right, i do like harmon. I also like leer. I think leer is good. But your stock is good. The Parts Companies are better than the actual auto companies. How about betsy in new york . Petty. Caller yes . Hi. Youre on. Caller this is betsy from quog. Get out. Did you go to the library book sign. Caller no, i didnt. Im sorry. I didnt know it was happening. Okay, all right. Caller im interested in nat, north american tankers. Its been going up, up, up, except for today. Other pundits say sell sell, sell. And boy, buy more sell or hold. Youve got a gun to my head. All i keep thinking is ill see you on the beach. Nor dick america has has been a real bad stock. They do have the possibility of an increased dividend this year. There was insider buy, a large amount of insider buying this week. So im going to tell you now that the quag food market is closed i wont bump into you there. But im going to tell you i think its worth a speculative bet. But im not making an investment call there, speculative bet. Sal in new york, sal. Reerl. Caller thanks for taking my call. Congratulations on your tenyear anniversary. Jim, i have been accumulating bank of america shares for quite a while. And still buying on dips. I would like your long and shortterm view of bank of america given the backdrop of the tres test results, currency issue, and future interest rates. I was disit. Ed by bank of america and the stress. Ive been disappointed about bank of america, both the stock and the company. I think that they are, if you want to put an order to it, i used to think citigroup, i used to think that citi was worse than bank of america. I no longer feel that way. I really prefer wells fargo, wfc. I dont think you should buy any more bank of america here. Its a wells fargo moment. That is the way to play it. All right, sure i expect some positive reports, but all im saying issing and i havent said it in a long time but the market is really up huge this week. I dont want you to be greedy. I do want you to raise a little cash, because complacency post that fed meet, it seems to be everywhere. Mad money tonight, its like the chipotle for pizza with the twist and the stiek is popping hot, soaring 20 just this week. A name you probably never heard of until tonight. Im going to reveal it. And nike has put some points on the board today. Can he keep dominating the court . Im going to lace up and find out. Plus a new biotech serves what could be gamechanging news for a very terrible disease, parkinsons. Stick with cramer. Dont miss a second of mad money follow jimcramer on twitter. Send jim an email to madmoney cnbc. Com or give us a call at 1800743cnbc. . What the heck has been going on with papa murphys. Relatively quick serve take and bake pizza change. Many of you have probably never heard of it. Heres a tiny speculative 280 Million Company with a 16 and change stock that has been absolutely on fire of late. Rallying 42 this year alone. And up a staggering 22 just over the past week. Thanks in part to a terrific quarter reported on tuesday. Thats a gigantic move, the kind you expect from a biotech stock, not a pizza chain. Also thoub to be fair, dominos has given us monumental longterm gains since i started recommending it five years ago. But what about pap murphys. Who thought you could make this kind of money in a irish Pizza Company . Is this move for real. Can it be trusted . Does the stock have more room to run . Its speculation friday. We know the whole restaurant cohort has been roaring, thanks to the massive decline in the price of gasoline which gives the average American Household an extra 1,000 worth of Discretionary Income per year out of nowhere. Some of which theyre definitely spending on dining out. We saw that this morning with the fabulous quarter out of darden the Parent Company of olive garden which caused the stock to spice almost 34 . However, this is actually a unique story, benefitting from the increasing allure of natural and organic offerings. Think about the whole chapter in get rich carefully, especially among the younger generation. So what exactly sets papa murphys apart from papa johns. A couple of papas. Papa murphy has a bizarre, at least to me but popular model. You go into a papa murphys they prepare a pizza right in front of you. So far so good right . And then they take that uncooked pizza and they give it to you. Thats right, you pak it at home. Hence take and bake. This company is the largest take and bake pizza chain in the united states. And the fifth largest overall pizza chain with 1,461 locations across 38 state, along with canada, and, of course the united arab emirates. Because they dont need to shell out for ovens or delivery people, papa murphys has a lot less overhead which means they can sell their pizzas at a much lore price point. But if youre planning on getting takeout, it doesnt get any more fresh than cooking the darn pizza at home. But even with the whole idea of take and bake pizza doesnt appeal to you, the fact is papa murphys has a clear idea of who its target demographic is moms millosevicl millilials. Theyre number one for quality, speed of service, value freshness and politeness of employees. And according to ndp group, the company ha consistently been ranked number one year after year in taste, freshness, food quality and speed of service. Where is papa murphys been all my life . So we know papa murphys has a good product. On top of that, they also invested in terrific deck nolg which we know is necessary for quick serve restaurants to stay relative and keep their customers. Papa murphys has point of sale interfaces at 77 of the stores and if they get that number up to 100 over this year and the next. Plus theyre using targetsed mobile coupons to bring more people into the scores. At the end of the day, though we know this concept is working because of the numbers. Remember papa murphys reported on tuesday st. Patricks day, and their domestic samestore sales decreased by 8. 4r . Companyowned stores up extraordinary 10. 5 a couple points better than the franchises. Those are fabulous numbers. However, the real reason im excited about this speculative stock, the reason i devoted a whole segment to it is because of the growth opportunity. Like i told you, papa murphys has 1,461 locations in the latest quarter. They opened 38 stores. And for full year 2015 they plan to increase 110 to 115 locations. Were talking nearly 8 new store growth with over 90 of those being franchises. Thats not bad. But get this. Long term pop la murphys believes they can increase their footprint from 1,500 locations to a roughly an astounding 4,500 locations just in the u. S. This Company Plans to triple its store count. Triple is that actually a viable plan or is it a pipe dream . Well, take a look at this map. The areas in orange are the states where the company has a high level of penetration. The areas in lighter orange show where it has stores but a lower level of penetration. And the area in green, they dont have any stores at all. Thats the northeast, which is why many of you may have never heard of papa murph. Now, papa murphys believes they can open another 2,500 stores just in their low density areas like the south, the midwest, the southwest and california. On top of that they think they can open 604 stores in the northeast, which to me seems like kind of a low ball estimate given that were talking about some of the most densely Populated Areas in the country. Either way you get to the 4,500 store threshold. And that would be be, wow, that would be super growth. I think its the companys ability to increase its store count that has attracted so many investors to papa murphys. Money managers absolutely salivate. Whenever you see a turbo charged growth story in the Restaurant Base thats based on franchises you have to do a deeper dive. Many restaurants have gone wrong by aggressively putting up new franchises regardless of whether or not it made sense. And then squeezing the franchises for money until the whole thing collapses. However, i dont think papa murphys is one of those stories. The franchisees are doing well. In some places papa murphys has seen the average weekly sales of its existing stores increase when they open up more locations. Perhaps because it raises awareness for the overall brand. No cannibalization here. Also they find their most successful franchises and buying them out. They picked up six stores in the seattle area for 4 million with more of these deals likely to come. Their companyowned stores tend to grow faster and better than the franchises do. So yes, i think papa mur firs is a viable even exciting company. What about the stock . After its recent run, papa murphys now trades at 26 times next years earnings estimate. That puts it exactly on part with dominos and papa johns. However, it has much faster growth than its competitors. In other words, i think theres a good case to be made here that papa murphys deserves its premium price to earnings multiple. That said, its an ultra speculative small cap stock, which means you should only ever buy it into weakness and always always always use limit orders or you will get burned. When i say speculative, you need to only use mad money, not borrowed money ira money, your kids tuition money. So heres the bottom line. Yes, the recent run does make sense. This is a novel and successful concept that still has a lot of room to grow. But its also extremely speculative, so please be careful. Do not chase. Maybe get a market wide pullback. Build your position using limit orders. And then what i want you to do i want you to go bake a murph pizza and let me know how it tastes at jim cramer on twitter. Much more mad money ahead including my take on the king of sportswear. Then a biotech game soaring off of what could be huge news for parkinsons suffererers. Plus, an entire group of names pretty much going up in a straight line. Listen up, what i think you should do with biotech. It may surprise you. Stick with cramer. A tour deforce on why this is a must own senior growth stock. I got to tell you, it was a starter. The Conference Call was a dud. You felt so great about nike you could overlook any weakness and embrace any strength. First nike did what everyone should have done this quarter, just tell the story on a Constant Currency basis. Nike is a worldwide company, its obvious its got head winds all over the place as the dollar has become almost cartoonish in its strength. So nike took the bull by its horns or at least the bullish dollar and said you factor it in. Were not going to do that much about it. Were not going to explain it. Its not our fault. Even when the company shifted business with different venues they didnt take the bait. The impact instead of the call being one explanation of weakness after another, which is what happens when you translate things back, you could use the call to figure out just how strong nike really is. And recognize that the franchise is totally on sale no matter where it completes. The essence of the call was we compete, we win, you figure out the currency. I dont know if oracle embraced a similar strategy earlier in the week and it was clearly winning. When you compare these two calls with ibms, for instance, where you thought that ibm had simply done horrendously because it talked about actual currency compared to Constant Currency you realize the nike oracle method is the way for companies to go, take out currency from the equation. But boy, there were oth

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