Transcripts For CNBC Mad Money 20160105 : vimarsana.com

CNBC Mad Money January 5, 2016

That was easy. At one point today when the indices broke down, i heard a collective sigh. And i was pretty shocked that i didnt get hit by a white flag of surrender after i walked down wall street after the show. But the facts refused to align with negative story. I think today was one of those times. As we saw a terrific rebound in the averages, after a second bout of hideous selling this morning. The dow closing up two points. The nasdaq declining 2. 4 . First, lets deal with the negativity. Its coming from four different directions. Sell sell sell sell. Sell sell sell sell. Worry number one, chinas falling apart. No matter that its been falling apart for ages or the chinese stock market is not creating wealth, many cant handle the stress of waiting for the other chinese shoe to drop after mondays break down. Suffice it to say theres big trouble in big china. Negative number two, the fed has gone from friend to foe. Theres a narrative out there right now, now that we have started to raise rates theres no return to the practical policy of data dependence. This thesis says that were on autopilot mode like the prebernanke fed. Well get a shortfall in earnings. Third fear were in the high peaks region of the economic cycle. Everywhere i go i hear that all sorts of cycles we have the peak in cell phones which caused apple to drop like a stone and taking the Semiconductor Stocks down with it. A new story about a possible 30 decline in apple component orders sure didnt help, nor did stories making the rounds that were peaking in autos. One of the chief engines of u. S. Growth. I think the numbers we saw this morning were good. Well, good, they never less buttressed the case of the bears which would make lower Interest Rate incentives harder to come by. Given they sold 17 million vehicles, it is reasonable to think that things cant get better. We have peak housing stories floating around. Way too high prices because of a scarcity of inventory. Peak cell phones, peak autos, peaks housing thats apox on peak in three components. Finally, the oil glut. Yeah. Remember were in crazy town. Crazy town where we care more about an energy decline, down again today which is negative for about half a dozen states. Then we care about the potential increase in Consumer Spending than the cheaper gasoline can cost. Low gasoline is good. But the market doesnt think so. What happened today, the up opening, a total pickoff, the obvious decline, then shockingly to some the rise in stocks makes us wonder whether the it has to go down in 2016 narrative has already gotten too pat. I say we rewind the tape. We have a dramatic selloff yesterday that was largely related to china and the 7 decline shut down. When china didnt fall apart last night that was the key to the potential rally. However, one pattern works almost every time. You sell any market that opens higher after a big down day. I loved when stocks looked like they were going to open down in Early Morning trading. But when the s p 500 futures caught up big before the opening i knew we were goners. Its just too juicy an opportunity for those smart enough to buy to the depths of yesterdays trading to ring the register off that pickoff jubilant open. When those sellers materialized the market fell apart again and we got an amazing resurgence of negativity. We heard the usual refrains as first day and second day goes, so goes the whole year. I even intraday that we were suffering through the worst new year beginning in ages. I opened up a journal of the plague year, from dale dafoe to see what lay ahead of us. What ended up happening . First despite the decline in crude, the oil stocks themselves rallied. Hey first time i can recall in asia that they bucked the price of crude. Maybe theres too much oil negativity . Second, it got frigid cold out. Al roker top of the news flash cold. I thought the decline in the Retail Stocks in the face of the Lower Oil Prices have been one of the biggest dampers on the stock market. Its not encouraging. When you see walmart down 30 and not rallying disconcerting. When you worry again about the health of j. C. Penney thats daunting. I have said that weather is the crucial variable in sales. Not Consumer Spending but weather. These are the the cold weather clothing doesnt sell when its 60 degrees out, but when its 16 degrees stuff flies off the shelves. The cold weather ignited this group. One look at walmart and target, both up a buck and change tells you what you need to know. When we get a whiff of a recession, we have got to get used to a surge in household names. I love a tape that marches to the tunes of the mcdonalds. And i told you that would be a power house again. Kimberlyclark, two best run Consumer Packaging companies and pepsico will be a winner again. Finally, everyone pounces on eli lilly for cutting its guidance and the stock gets obliterated from the get go and then they review the mega blockbuster alzheimers drug and its rises like lazarus. I like a market where the facts go net the way of the negative story. Opportunity knocks when the market got knocked down. With a victory for the bulls that was snatched from the jaws of the bears who seems so greedily triumphant this very morning. James in connecticut. James . Caller happy new year. Same. Caller im thinking of buying some match group mtch is the symbol for my daughters birthday. I wondered if you think its a good buy. I think its a great buy. I cannot believe the retention. I cant believe how the success it just seems too cheap and im with you. I think its a nice present. How about kathleen in new york. Kathleen . Caller happy new year, great prince. I took a recent large position just under 16 in pandora. Should i add to my position . There was a recent downgrade. Oh, i would be a clown prince if i said buy this one. I have to tell you that other than a takeover basis i cant remember this stock. I do think that apple should buy them, but i thought apple should buy harmon, particularly since they added the security blanket to the brains of the car. Apple has to get out of just being a cell phone company. Give me a little mobility when it comes to cars. Today we saw the facts get in the way of the negative story and thats the kind of market i like. On mad tonight, the rock stars of the s p crushed it last year, but which ones can sing the same tune in 2016 . And the losers im eyeing the worst s p performers to see if they could be worth owning. And time to toast the beverage stocks in the new year. Im poring over the charts. Stick with cramer. Announcer dont miss a second of mad money. Follow jimcramer on twitter. Have a question . Tweet cramer, madtweets. Send jim an email to madmoney cnbc. Com or give us a call at 1800743cnbc. Miss something . Head to madmoney. Cnbc. Com. At the beginning of every glorious year, i like to remind people that this show is showing you how the professionals pick stocks and giving you the tools that they use to isolate the best opportunities and ideas for yourself. Now, that doesnt mean that you should always do what the pros do. It doesnt mean that youll netly make money in a given year. The entire market goes down as most people think it will, you hope to contain your losses. Nevertheless f i can make you a better investor then i have done my job and youll have done yours. Now, 2015 was a totally insane year because only a handful of stocks were responsible for whatever gains that the market registered. Most stocks went down. But if you want to know which stocks make the not so great year, somewhat more palatable, look no further than the top performers of the s p 500. Amazon is up, act avision, with 92 gain and nvidia rallied 63 . And cablevision climbed. Here on mad money we dont care where a stock comes from. We only care about where its going. You cant make any money from where it happened. Which is why tonight i want to give you my analysis of where the s ps winners will be headed in 2016. Before we get started though, i need to make two important points. First is thattal will all of the winners were gettable. Meaning that you most likely either used the products and probably love them or at the very least you knew of them. Possible exception is cablevision. Many of the real winners last year was those who got takeover bids. Thats how cablevision got so high. I think we should therefore remove that Cable Company stock from our purview and add in hormel, the food company which only finished 0. 4 behind the regional cable player and really, i mean, just for a moment, the cablevision was gettable too. If you simply watched the morning show squawk on the street where david faber made it clear that 2015 will be the year of cable consolidation, cablevision fit smack in the middle of that thesis. Not often that watching a news program can make you money. But david faber is not your typical reporter. Hes a rare breed whos owned the merger and acquisitions beat for several decades now. Im proud to call him my partner. Can any of the s p 500 top performers repeat in 2016 . Lets start with netflix and amazon, the a and the n in f. A. N. G. Which includes facebook. Formerly google which ruined my acronym with the coolio name change. First, net flex and amazon dont play the same rules as any other company. Netflix didnt rally last year because of the fabulous earnings. Amazon didnt advance because it got recognized for the glory. No, theyre momentum. Meaning they represents shifts in the fast growing revenues and theres a whole cohort of Money Managers who believe if you buy those with hyper sales growth not earnings youll end up with winners. Most of the series professionals that come on our air havent recommended a stock with gusto. And that tries to isolate the value. The analysts search for stocks that are cheap versus the fundamentals. These two stocks are anything but cheap. So why have i championed netflix and amazon for so long . Simple. I have always felt that in any given market, there are stocks that can be embraced for the enormous potential if everything goes right at the companies because sometimes with the help of fantastic management and amazing opportunity they do if you wait long enough and hold them long enough you can be surprised thats what happened to these two giants in 2015. Yep, last year we discovered that amazon could be profitable simply if it wanted to be. We saw that because the Company Actually broke out roughly how much it was making not losing but making with the gigantic web services division. We got a different revelation with netflix. It was a hit machine with content beloved worldwide. It deserved a bigger market capitalization than 12 months ago. Did you fall under making the murderer hole . My staff cant a stop talking about it. My sister cant either. I caught up with jessica jones. I guess i have to find some time to binge, find out what all the talk is about in the office. At least until season 2 of narcos premieres. Jessica jones, man. Smoke show. How can we not pay for more more for something it turns out to be as popular internationally as it was domestically, why should that stock be valued the same when its a hit overseas, how can we not pay more for something thats not as popular specially as domestically . Netflix and amazon became the poster children for something that there isnt enough of pure oxygenated growth. Most companies are starved to produce it. These two have it in spades and thats the chief reason why i believe that after some stuttering at the beginning of the year, both netflix and amazon could see their stocks rally some more. Oh, not as much as last year. Those moves stole a lot of the thunder of 2015, but the scarcery value is there. And these two names like that uber growth manager thirst. Next up, Activision Blizzard. The amazing ceo, doesnt get enough credit on this show. My bad. Activision launched call of duty, black ops 3. What can i say, i was dazzled by this and im not a gamer. Thats not enough for coe tech though. He shelled out 5. 9 billion and bought the huge digital platform with candy crush. Thats what theyre play on the subway. Its deal thats additive to earnings thats before all the cost promotion you can do. Then yesterday, activision bought major league gaming. Is this guy never satisfied . It will monetize fabulously. Can it repeat the 92 gain, but the company is over 27 billion valuation actually seems low to me. Given all that intellectual momentum and i knew him when he was 20. The company has turned itself from the fast pc chipmaker into the juggernaut at the internet of things with the best graphic chips for gaming, as well as chips geared to the cloud and to cars. I have to admit i misjudged the company. Like so many others and was shocked when the head of audi america said his company swears by nvidia chips. Like an audi, like xbox 1 . That should have been the signal to pound the tables. It was clear this is no longer just a fast graphics chip play. I think theres still more positive news ahead, because nvidia has only beaten the wall street estimates for two quarters. I think this will be two more there will be two more fabulous quarters ahead. How could intel not have acquired the guys . Consumer electronics nvidia, one and the same. Finally, hormel. Its a fuddyduddy company with a great Dividend Company into a juggerna juggernaut. They have skippys Peanut Butter and muscle milk. Theyre the polar opposite of spam. The Company Keeps applegate under wraps. If you put the hormel name on the search bar, nothing comes up. Spam and applegate, the same roof. All the better to preserve the 70 million acquisition. Hormels richly valued at the earnings and all keep reinventing themselves. Keep beating the key metrics. To me, that means the bottom line here is that you can buy small amounts of the stocks but only on weakness. Only if you recognize that with the exception of the ridiculously cheap Activision Blizzard and the unheralded nvidia, youre coming to the Winners Circle of the s p 500 steeplechase. Much more ahead. Im going to focus on the biggest losers of the s p 2015. Then its time to protect your portfolio. Find out which of the liquids can put up a solid defense in 2015. Dont forgot who makes the rules on chinas stock market. Ill tell you how its affecting the average at home, so why dont you stick with cramer. Today, were seeing new technologies make healthcare more personal with patientcentric, digital innovations; from selfmonitoring devices that can interpret personal data and enable targeted care, to Cloud Platforms that invite providers to collaborate with the patients they serve. Thats why over 90 of the top 25 Global Pharmaceutical Companies are turning to cognizant. Our domain experts, technologists, digital and data specialists, clinicians and scientists are transforming the way Clinical Research sites collaborate with pharmaceutical companies, and enhancing Patient Engagement with innovative platforms and solutions. Our populations growing healthcare needs present growing opportunities for our clients to advance the future of medicine with digital, and improve the quality of lives. Now that ive gone over the best performers in the s p 500 from 2015, its time to do some serious dumpster diving through the pool of the worst performers. Because you never know when youll stumble on a hidden gem among the losers. In the past we have seen the Airline Stock goes from zeros to heroes. And who can forget when micron morphed from the biggest loser to one of the biggest winners in a few years. Its the stuff dreams are made of. But sadly i dont see a lot of dreams among the dirt pile of underperforming stocks and in fact i see pretty much the opposite. That said, you never know. Im approaching the new year with the open mind. Because no one knew about micron or the airlines before the big come backs or no one who is saying. Now, i have to be a little creative in going over the stocks at the bottom of the heap because too many are all the same piece. Fossil fuel laggers where theres not much hope unless we get major unfortunate geopolitical events. Think of it, if the saudis have severed diplomatic relations with iran shouldnt we presume we have an Oil Supply Problem . The sad fact is that oil couldnt hold a 1 gain after that news. And after the price had fallen by twothirds at in a little more than a years time. Thats extraordinary. In normal times this would have produced a jump of at least 10 . Natural gas is just as bad. Although it managed to struggle above 2. 20 recently, thats a gigantic move from where it was from where no Natural Gas Company can make a profit. The oil and gas complex has gone down the rabbit hole and thats what makes sifting through the stinking rubble so unpleasant. Lets start with Chesapeake Energy which had the misfortune of watching the stock decline 77 . They have made many smart moves in trying to stave off a negative outcome for shareholders. Chesapeake had an incredibly well timed sale for 5. 3 billion. Back in october of 2014. Brilliant. At the time chesapeake stocks stood at 20 bucks. It seemed like the situation could only improve for this heavily debt laden company that had been outspending by billions and billions for years. Now with nothing really to show for it, if you had the misfortune of being a shareholder. But chesapeake cant stay ahead of the debt posse and the stock has fallen down to 5. Because they wont pay the myriad debt orange obligations, nobody wants it. Without the price of crude going up dramatically its hard to see why you want to own the stock. If you want to make a bet on oil and gas, there are plenty of more solid, better ways to do it. Including companies that let you sleep at night without having to worry about whether or not they can pay their debts. Next up, Console Energy which was in a real horse race with chesapeake for the most god forsaken equity in the s p 500 and it was beaten by a nose. Can 76. 9 finish. You know what . I looked this over. Wall street still seems to love console, even after the first class beatdown. Ten of the 20 analysts give it a buy rating. Are they living in bizarre world . Do you want to own the stock of the seventh largest coal producer in the company and they need much higher gas prices to make money . I know the Hedge Fund Manager<

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