Inflated. The market had started to deflate, but then he said it went back up again. Usually thats a bad sign. Thats a sign of things to come, end quote. On a day when the market drifted down slowly but surely, dow sinking 53 points, nasdaq dropping 0. 46 , its worth pondering mr. Trumps fuse, whatever your political orientation. It makes sense on many different levels, and the conclusions, you know what, theyre arguably right, at least for a Certain Group of People Living in certain places, namely, rich People Living in expensive places. First, we have to admit that the stock markets had a fabulous run since the bottom seven years ago. People have made huge amounts of money if they invested at the generational low, or if you held on at the meltdown and didnt own the hart rd hardhit financials. You did terrifically. So, is there a bubble . Well, if youre living in new york City Real Estate it feels like a bubble, particularly in manhattan, where properties could easily sell for four or five times what they might go for 90 miles down the road, near, say, villanova. Wow. I just worked that allegiance in far earlier than i ever thought i could do. Anyway, a couple of weeks ago, kb homes reported, and on the conference call, ceo jeff metzger said i dont think youre anywhere near a bubble price, certainly not at the price points were playing at. But then literally in the same breath, he says, sad to say, but 1. 5 million is affordable in the bay area right now or the city of san francisco. I dont know, that sure sounds like a bubble to me. We know that historically, Interest Rates are much lower than wed expect them to be, given the unemployment rate. There are several Federal Reserve members who simply wont stop talking about this and are concerned precisely about the bubble trumps talking about, but as trump points out, these rates arent available to most people unless theyre rich. Again, thats pretty much an empirically correct judgment, although credit has loosened of late. Trump also noted the strong dollar is hurting stock investments. Again, true. I talk about that dollar multiple times a week, talk about it later in the show. So, if things are so terrible, if there is a bubble, if the stock markets inflated, and therefore, dangerous, then why the heck should you be in it . Why not sell everything . First, im going to Say Something that might be shocking to some of you out there, especially the ones who imagine me to be an all stocks all of the time guy. [ buzzer ] if the reports of Donald Trumps wealth are true, and i have no reason to doubt them, then he shouldnt even be in stocks at all, except for perhaps some fun. One of the best pieces of advice i learned at Goldman Sachs from my old partner, jack shepard. He heard me trying to sell a rich person some stocks, pitching them, so to speak. He knew i loved selling stocks and he knew i was being asked and the person i was talking to was intrigued by the ideas. When i got off the phone, he said he had something to say, and i never forgot it. He told me, jimmy, you only need to get rich once. Think about how true that statement is. Whats the point of owning stocks in order to make more money when youre already rich as kreeshs himself . Jack said i should be buying people the highest quality bonds. All right, so, lets look back. The dow is about 15,000 points lower back then, so you could argue that it was a fabulous time to invest in stocks. People didnt think that, but you could argue it. But you know what . 30year treasuries were yielding about 10 , toprated municipal bonds, the one the government guaranteed, 6 . Sure, they didnt give you the bang for the buck that stocks got. You did, however, do fabulously with those bonds given the high interest you received. Still, what happened if you picked the wrong stocks back then . Think about it. Hey, how about the crash of 87 . What about the mini crash of 89 . What about the dotcom bomb of 2000 . How about the financial crisis from 2007 to 2009 or the flash crash, lost 1,000 dow points in less than an hour, or when stocks fell 16 in 2011 off the debt ceiling crisis . Or how about stocks fell almost 2,000 points back in august, just five days. And now theres deflation earlier in the year that trump may have referencing when we had the january selloff. If you took the wrong but totally legitimate action of panicking, selling aller stocks into the suboptimal vortex of panic, you might not have done nearly as well as if you had just owned those bonds and slept well every night after purchasing them. So, in that sense, i do think trumps right, stocks do have tremendous risk. And i never want to minimize that risk on mad money. Every day hot stocks soar and then come crashing back to earth a few days later or months or even years. Every day there are companies with stocks that simply blow up in your face. But now lets deal with the reality of the vast majority of americans, those who arent rich and are unlikely to get rich from their jobs, because as we all know, wages are stagnant and there simply isnt as much economic mobility as there used to be when i was growing up. Unlike when i worked at Goldman Sachs in the 1980s, bonds these days yield very little. They arguably arent as good a buy for someone whos not rich versus a portfolio of higher yielding common stocks diversified across a variety of industries. You can craft that portfolio yourself or you can look for a fund that invests in higher yielding stocks to spread the risk. And most important, after putting away your nest egg money, you can try to find some stocks that have the capability to deliver outsized gains, real outsized gains. I dont think that this position is at all an threatical to trumps position or the position of so many people who come on air and tell you that were in a dangerous, risky moment and you have to sell. In fact, people are far more involved in the stock market whose careers should depend on their calls have come on and given scary messages about where the stock market may be going, messages that are far more alarming than anything trump said. Still, though, donald trump and most of the others out there need to be careful about being too sweepingly negative. Given that the alternatives for regular people who are trying to make a little you know, some money in this economy . Theyre virtually nonexistent for them, stocks are the only game in town. You cant borrow lots of money at low Interest Rates to invest in real estate or development unless youre already wealthy. If you invest in certificates of deposit, youll have next to nothing to show for it. If you buy corporate bonds, you might be taking too much risk, versus what could happen if rates shoot up rapidly, causing bond prices to go down, but what happens if the businesses go bad . Thats why i believe that as long as you take a longterm view, put money away in an index fund, then set some savings aside for smart, homeworkderived investment ideas based on companies you know and love that suit you, its worth braving all the bubble talk to invest in the stock market. So, let me give you the bottom line there are always bubbles, people, there will always be bubbles. There are times where stocks are very stretched. There are times when you should take some profits, some, but ultima ultimately, stocks represent a better value for the average person than anything else out there. And if you arent already rich, the market is still the best way to try to make yourself wealthy. So, dont let the bubbleheads scare you away from making money with your money. That would be the wrong thing to do. Lets go to scott in pennsylvania. Scott caller va, virgin america. Would the stock have climbed without rumors of a merger . With no, no i mean, va was the Airline Stocks were actually going down before this, so i would tell you, no, absolutely not. That was a good deal, though, and i want you, if you do own va, take the money and run. Lets go to donald, new york. Donald. Caller hello, mr. Cramer. How are you . Caller super, super. My wife and i have been watching your program. We love mad money for the last ten years. And weve done well thank you. Caller as individual investors. After the ferrari ipo, i purchased, ill say a handsome number of shares. Im considering today after reading the wall street journal yesterday and today trading in ferrari for tesla. What do you think, mr. Cramer . You know, tesla just look, youve had a lot of good news for tesla the last 72 hours, and that has caused the stock to run, but you know what, its run so much that i think its too speculative for the moment. Let it pull back, if you want to do that. I just think its unconscionable for me to tell you to come in on top of this run and go buy some tesla. It just wouldnt be right. All right, sorry to burst your bubble, but the truth is, there will always be bubbles, but ultimately, stocks represent the best value for the average person. On mad money, over the past year, the Hotel Industry has been bad enough to make you want to empty the mini bar, but is it time to check into the sector once more . Ill tell you which stock could help you sleep at night. Then, chipotle s gone from the highgrowth restaurant darling to one of the biggest battleground names in the entire market, but could it make a comeback . Ill tell you what to make of the company. And im Digging Deeper into the employment number with one of the leading headhunters. So, why dont you stick with cramer announcer dont miss a second of mad money. Follow jimcramer on twitter. Have a question . Tweet cramer, madtweets. Send jim an email to madmoney cnbc. Com. Or give us a call at 1800743cn 1800743cnbc. Miss something . Head to madmoney. Cnbc. Com. Hotel Motel Holiday Inn im trying to pack my bags here. I mean, is it just me, or are the hotel stocks way too cheap . In recent weeks, the hotels have rallied nicely, thanks to the bidding war for starwood, a war ultimately won by marriott when they upped their bid to beat an offer from chinas anbang insurance group. But we have to remember that for the bulk of the past 12 months, this entire sectors been in the doghouse, just a total group of underperformers. After peaking in april or may of last year thats pretty much where all of them did every u. S. Based hotel stock moved lower in the second half of 2015. Boy, some were down substantially. Hilton fell 22 , hyatt 17 , wyndham 11 , starwood 15 , marriott 10 , la quinta plunged 40 a lot of it because it has so much exposure to the oilheavy economy of texas. Now, youd think hotels would be beneficiaries of lower gasoline prices. Thats what we thought. But at the same time, the industrys been hammered by the strong dollar, put the bib yosh on tourists coming here from overseas, not to mention the disruptive effects of Companies Like airbnb or, of course, the horrifying and tragic terrorist attacks in europe. However, now that we know marriotts willing to pay around 83 per share for starwood in cash and stock, and thats a 20 premium to where it was trading before the takeover speculation started last fall, we wondered if this entire cohort was dramatically undervalued. Certainly, if you value the whole group with marriott valuing starwood, there could be fabulous opportunities lurking for trading and investing. Before we use that valuation, though, lets get our heads around how starwood got there. A little less than a year ago, the Company Announced it was spinning off its Timeshare Division and potentially looking to sell the rest of the business, too. That announcement was viewed as bullish for the industry, given consolidation could give the other players more pricing power. So, no surprise that april of 2015 was indeed the Highwater Mark for most of the stocks. The bidders spent the next few months preparing offers and things heated up late last october when david facebooker my squawk on the street cohost, broke the story that hyatt was interested in buying starwood, while also noting that Chinese Companies were mulling takeover bids. Then in november, starwood and marriott announced they had agreed to a 12. 2 billion deal. Starwood, just 72 bucks a share. A bid so low, i was surprised they accepted it, and was not at all surprised when starwoods stock went lower. For a couple of months it seemed like starwood would sell itself for pittance, not a good sign for the industry, but three weeks ago, chinas anbang came in and realized the asset was being particularly undervalued and stepped in with a bid of 76 per share, all cash. A few days later, we found out that starwood accepted a 78 offer from anbang, but then marriott turned around and made their final offer, a cash and stock bid that values the company at more than 85 a share, over 13 bucks higher than their first offer. So, it seems starwood is in reality worth even more than the people running it thought it was. And if thats true for them, it ought to be true for the rest of the group, which is why after an abysmal start to 2016, hotel stocks have been roaring higher to the point where the cohort is slightly outperforming the broader averages. Throw in the fact that the super strong dollar is finally getting weaker versus the euro and other currencies and emerging growth currencies, we could see a resurgence in foreign terrorism in this country. Oh, that would be a huge boom for the hotel stocks. So, given what marriott was willing to pay for starwood, how do we grade the rest of the group . Starwood was supposed to make 82 a share, so its 30. 4 times this years earnings, 28 times next years earnings estimates. Of course, its a control block, so you have to pay more, but thats quite a pretty penny, frankly. If you apply that rubric to the other hotel stocks, many of them do like quite cheap here. Obviously, these are on a takeover basis, but lets take hilton worldwide, all right . That currently trades at less than 20 times next years numbers. Hilton is among the cheapest, but its also one of the hairiest stories out there, with hair in wall street parlance being negative, like hair in your soup. This was a name taken public by bla blackstone. That means theyre down with debt and blackstone owns over 35 of the share. Thats a position you Better Believe they plan to sell gradually over time. Thats their job, but its a lot of potential selling. In order, if they value them at 1. 12 per share, this could be a 31. 36 stock. That would be up 41 from where its currently trading. Call hilton a highrisk highreward situation. Not my favorite, but i can certainly understand the appeal it had to people. Another cheap one, Intercontinental Hotels, ihg. That trades at only 18. 4 times next years earnings estimates. This is a britishbased company that runs more than 5,000 Hotels Across 100 different countries. Intercontinental hotel is intriguing because there have been rumors that three chinese suitors have been eyeing the company as a potential takeover target shanghai haa group and China Investment corps, some of the same that were interested in starwood. And if these firms are willing to pay these prices, its possible in the event of a takeover, we could see something in the realm of a 52 premium for this stock. May sound like pie in the sky, but remember, even starwood didnt understand how valuable it was to potential acquirers until they got into a bidding war, although anbang dropping out does make a chinese bid seem more suspect. Lets hope that the buy of starwood, marriott. Heres a stock that trades at 15. 3 times next years earnings estimates. I think its very unlikely marriott will ever be a takeover target, given its one of the largest players in the group and is about to get bigger, thanks to the starwood deal, but its one of the cheapest stocks in the space. Still, i cant escape the idea that marriott got bluffed into paying too much for starwood, even though it could be lucrative. Think of marriott as a longterm value play. The cheapest of the hotel stocks, though, when we did the work came up again and again, cramer fave, wyndham worldwide. Thats wyn, which is trading at a paltry, frankly, ridiculous 12 times next years earnings estimates. Wyndhams a bit more complicated than some of the others because in addition to hotels, it also has a gigantic, lucrative timeshare business. Starwood also did, so did marriott. Didnt prevent the company from selling itself. It doesnt hurt that we recently heard from wyndhams ceo, steve holmes, a couple months ago right here on the show after he delivered a spectacular quarter. I thought he told a really compelling story. Plus, wyndham pays you a solid yield. Imagine raising the dividend by 19 . Talk about a sign of confidence. And if you value it like starwood, this 75 stock, i know, im just going to put it out there, if you value it like starwood, the 75 stock is worth 175. Now, i know thats too rosy a view, but i wouldnt be too surprised if wyndham cant work back to its old high of 92 and then trade over 100. So, heres the bottom line in the wake of this bidding war for starwood after the beatdown the group has suffered from the shadow boxing with airbnb, we need to revalue the whole hotel cohort. And despite the recent rallies in these stocks, theyre still depressed after last years underperformance. Thats why i like Intercontinental Hotels as an inexpensive consolidation play, marriott, but only for the long haul, and my absolute favorite right now, the cheapest and maybe the best run, wyndham worldwide. Much more mad money ahead, including my take on chipotle. Is it the worst opening for the company . Ill tell you if wall streets appetite could change for the stock. Then, every seven minutes, corn fairy places a new person in a job. Ill talk with the ceo for the employment picture. And a slew of downgrades on the street, but is it time to sell . Ill give you my take. son pa, i know we settle for cable. But directv has been number one in Customer Satisfaction over cable for 15 years. father how bout over 15 satisfying years with that woman over there boiling your clothes. Her layers and layers of. Layers. Hair that ive rarely seen because its always under that bonnet. And how she fought off that grizzly and made him into these slippers. Thats satisfaction son. vo dont be a settler, get a 100 reward card when you switch to directv. What happens when the hottest restaurant stock around gets battered by a series o